Loading ...
Baseball season is approaching at light speed. In just a bit more than three weeks, the Reds will open the season against Miami. Correspondingly, we’re getting to the end of these previews. My plan was to discuss third at this point in the series as I figured by now we would know how healthy Scott Rolen was going to be (more or less) and who his backup figured to be. Rolen seems to be doing great. However, Juan Francisco has been dealing with some injury issues and is chowing down on kibble in Dusty’s doghouse, so third isn’t set yet.
So instead, we’ll jump ahead to short, where the picture is much clearer. Some have accused me of being overly optimistic, but that shouldn’t be an issue as we discuss Zach Cozart, or as I like to think of him, Barry Larkin 2.0 (I’m kidding).
Zach Cozart came into spring training fully-recovered from his surgeries and there have been no signs that his place as the Reds’ starter is in any kind of jeopardy. Even ZiPS, the most bearish of the projection systems, sees Cozart as an average shortstop worth 2.0 WAR. Others are even more optimistic. Many non-partisan analysts and scouts are also higher on him than ZiPS. Certainly, coming off the ugly-fest at shortstop last year, it’s nice to have a prospect who no one seems to feel will be an abject failure.
However, this is a position where we do need to discuss the backup. Probably, it’s going to be Wilson Valdez. That’s why he was signed and I’d expect him to play when Baker gives Cozart a day off (and he will have days off unless he’s destroying the league). Paul Janish might have a shot here, but the Reds seem pretty set with the notion that Janish will be the minor league break-glass-in-case-of-emergency shortstop.
You can’t really win with either of those guys as they are both the textbook definition of replacement-level. Thus, whatever value the Reds do get out of shortstop this year will come from Cozart. And there is a lot to like about Cozart. He’s not going to hit like he did in his short stint last year, but he does have legit power, especially for a middle infielder. Also, he’s shown the capacity to hit for a decent average in the minors and that should help offset his below-average walk rate. It will also help that Dusty will probably rest him against especially tough pitchers. Now, on to the projections…
2012 Cozart slash line: .270/.310/.400
2012 Valdez slash line: .250/.300/.320
2012 Janish slash line: .230/.290/.300
2011 Shortstop WAR: 1.2 (0.7 game from Cozart’s 11 games)
2012 Best Guess WAR: 2.5
Projected Difference: 1.3
2012 Floor WAR: 1.0
2012 Ceiling WAR: 4.0
Redleg Nation Position-by-Position Season Preview:
First Base
Second Base
Right Field
Center Field
Catcher
Starting Pitching – Front End of the Rotation
Bullpen
Starting Pitching – Back End of the Rotation
Shortstop
Left Field
Third Base
Season Preview Wrap-Up
Cozart’s cup of coffee before the injury produced almost three quarters of the Reds SS WAR in 2011?
If my backup choice is Valdez or Soft-J, gimme Janish. Unlike Valdez, his glove is elite, and when well rested, seems to hit better than last year’s slash line showed. Question is, if Cozart goes down for an extended period, would Walt use either of the backups full time or call up Didi?
@Sultan of Swaff: I don’t know if Janish has spent enough time in the majors for us to know if he’s just a bad hitter or a truly atrocious one. It doesn’t matter too much though. Given the playing time these guys expect to get, playing one over the other isn’t going to matter. The important thing is that Cozart produces to expected levels.
@Jason1972: Sort of. Renteria was worth 0.9 WAR. Janish was a -0.4. I included the Cozart bit to illustrate how bad, exactly, the Reds were at short last year.
Arroyo getting rocked by the Cubs today. Cozart 2-run double.
I’m pretty high on Cozart although his lack of plate-discipline does concern me some. MLB pitchers are going to work him outside the zone and see if he’ll bite. He’s not a bad “bad-ball” hitter but he isn’t Vlad Guerrero either. If he starts going after those pitches out of the zone, you could see his average drop off quite a lot.
Even if Cozart falls short of projections, I think he’ll still be an upgrade over Renteria/Janish.
As far as a backup SS, I think we’ll mostly see Valdez with Janish back at AAA since he has options.
Interesting, because a guy batting just in front of Joey Votto figures to get some decent pitches to hit. Even more so if Phillips is getting on base in front of them both. I’m optimistic about Cozart too, but if gets off to a slow start at the plate, I wonder who else Dusty would put in the 2-hole. (If he could be persuaded that there is no legal requirement that his shortstop has to bat second.)
Cozart will see some good pitches batting second, but walks are also incredibly valuable in front of Votto. A low OBP is a major disqualifying factor for the #2 hole if Cozart can’t walk some this year.
Ok don’t mean to hijack a thread but….I have gotten Directv and am looking to add the sports pack for 13 bucks a month which would include Fox Sports Ohio. I would only add this to get Reds games. When I was reading on Directv they said channels may be subject to blackouts. None of the customer service reps could tell me if Reds games would be blacked out in my area. I live in Fort Wayne. Does anyone know if I would get all of the Reds games Fox Sports Ohio would be scheduled to air? It was never a problem when I had Comcast/Xfinity. Any help would be much appreciated. Thanks
All indications are that 1 of the 2 worst hitters on the team will bat second. In other words, if Cozart doesn’t work out there, Heisey/Ludwick will be hitting 2nd. We are in bizzarro world.
I’m less optimistic on Cozart than most (though guys like Bill James ridiculously low on him…case of extrapolating a short data same imo). I’m hoping for .260/.400/.315.
@Truman48: Can’t imagine they would be blacked out as they aren’t in Cincinnati. If you find out they are, you can always cancel.
@Truman48: I live in Indy and have directv with the foxsportsohio and reds games were not blacked out last year. I am assuming the same for this season and would think it would be same for Fort Wayne.
I am hoping cozart OBP is a little better than those projections(.320-.330). Otherwise, if Cozart struggles(and Dusty notices) probably likely see Stubbs moved into #2 spot, assuming Stubbs is over his 2011 slump and shows improved hitting for 2012.
@CP is that a typo on your slash line for OBP for cozart? I agree to your point how reds continually have a low obp in front of votto and would be nice just to get a guy with adequate ability there. It will make for some interesting watching how it plays out.
@doctor: Woah…I flipped SLG & OBP. That would be the weirdest slash line ever. Possibly the slash line of 5’2 baseball player?
Can someone please explain to me Didi’s slash line? .267/.250/.467… I’ve never seen and don’t understand how an OBP can be less than a players’ average.