by Chad Dotson on February 16th, 2012 in 2012 Reds
Our friend Joel Luckhaupt has written a very interesting piece on a favorite topic among the talk radio callers: Why doesn’t Drew Stubbs just bunt more and strike out less???!?!!!?!?!
It’s a must-read.
50 comments to On Drew Stubbs, bunting, and strikeouts
My main concern with Drew Stubbs going in to 2012 is whether his preoccupation with cutting down on strike outs will hurt his power numbers. He hit four HR in the last three months of the season compared with eleven in the first half. I wonder if that was due to shortening his swing just to make contact.
While I agree with the conclusion of the article, it becomes a closer call if Stubbs is a 10 HR hitter instead of 22-25.
Saw it yesterday, great stuff. I’d like to think the astute work done in the blogosphere is having some effect on the content of traditional media outlets because you normally don’t see stuff like this. On a related note, did anyone see MLB network’s top 10 right now for first basemen the other night? Joe Sheehan completely exposed Sean Casey for the uninformed mouth breather that he is.
The comments to the article make me sad. It’s like the commentators just skim it or don’t read it altogether. I guess its no different from political discussions with 2 polar opposites…
I really love this comment (paraphrased): “why doesn’t the hitting instructor just tell Stubbs to swing down on the ball and make contact more?” ITS THAT EASY.
Sooooooo basically Drew Stubbs just might not be that great of a baseball player. I think that’s kind of the conclusion a lot of fans are starting to come to grips with. It’s why I can’t get too worked up about all of the Billy Hamilton hype. Speed is fantastic. Rare speed in a baseball player is exciting. But there’s a reason track stars don’t usually become baseball players and Prince Fielder can get a $200 million contract. Personally, I’m fine with Stubbs in the bottom of the lineup adding a little bit of a power threat, but we obviously can’t live and die with his OBP at the top of the order no matter how enticing his speed is. That’s not really news.
Sooooooo basically Drew Stubbs just might not be that great of a baseball player.
It doesn’t really say that at all… it just points out that for people who think Stubbs OBP would be vastly improved through bunting, it really wouldn’t make a big impact. That’s it. It was not a commentary on his overall skill set.
Awesome article, regardless of conclusions. I hope there are people in the Reds organization who are doing analysis like this, and taking it seriously.
We don’t have Bill James, but we need people taking the “Bill James approach” – basically, questioning (and testing) conventional wisdom, and being open to whatever the conclusion is. Nothing ticks me off more than unquestioned conventional wisdom.
Anyway, I’m a Stubbs fan still, and hope he turns it around. I actually kinda felt for the guy last year – he really seemed tortured by the K’s and down on himself, and pressing. I could relate almost. No matter how talented you are, it sucks to fail publicly that many times.
@Matt WI: No, it wasn’t a commentary on his other skills. But I’m putting it in the context of his other skills. For the last few seasons people have been trying to come up with ways to maximize Stubbs’ production while minimizing his weaknesses. It seems like “bunt more” was kind of the last resort. And the article did a really good job of showing why that wouldn’t really make him that much more productive. Which means it can follow that he pretty much is what e is, which isn’t that great. At the very least I think it shows that we shouldn’t expect him to become anything more than average. I don’t hate Drew Stubbs. It’s just that last offseason we were projecting a huge breakout for him and I dont’ think that’s going to happen anymore.
“Past few seasons…” Stubbs put up a 5.2 WAR in 2010. In the last two years combined he’s been worth 8.1 WAR at Baseball Reference. So, I guess we disagree on the intial premise that Stubbs isn’t a valuable CF as is. Mind you, his strikeout rate is a problem, I’m not trying to gloss over that. I’m neither too high nor too low on Stubbs, but I wouldn’t caste him as average. But I’m interested in why you think someone that can hit for some power, run like the wind, play good defense in CF is just average. I’m looking forward to Jason Linden’s CF preview. Should generate some good discussion.
@eric nyc: I think you came close to hitting the nail on the head. He is what he is. But he’s actually an above average player thanks to his 4 tools. It’s hard to imagine him having a worse season than last year and he still provided about 3 WAR. Unless the guy loses his speed or his power, the guy’s floor WAR is above starter-level. The casual fans just don’t realize how thin the CF position is across MLB. They claim they want “pitching and defense” and then whine when guys don’t put up huge offense. I don’t mind Stubbs bunting a little bit more often (a “sacrifice” with Drew is probably statistically correct imo), but guys like Ken Broo and Thom were calling for him to bunt once a game, which is ridiculous.
That said, Chris Heisey makes him somewhat expendable this season because Drew is probably one of the best trade pieces on the roster and the in-season dropoff isn’t too significant between the 2 (though there is across the life of their careers). Most importantly, Drew will be entering arbitration next season.
Dan: Awesome article, regardless of conclusions. I hope there are people in the Reds organization who are doing analysis like this, and taking it seriously.
We don’t have Bill James, but we need people taking the “Bill James approach” – basically, questioning (and testing) conventional wisdom, and being open to whatever the conclusion is. Nothing ticks me off more than unquestioned conventional wisdom.
Strongly agree. I know some teams have “analytics” departments. I heard the new GM for the Astros interviewed a few weeks ago and he sounds really committed to using advanced statistics to help with decision making.
I’ve read a few times that Walt’s resistance to the statistical side was one of the reasons he parted ways with the Cardinals.
It’s part statistics and part willingness to reconsider baseball conventional wisdom. Example, the central importance of on-base-percentage to scoring runs. Another example, understanding that RBI are a function of opportunity, not clutchiness.
@Matt WI: His defense and power is why I say I want him at the back of the lineup instead of saying I wish he wasn’t on the roster. His defense is elite. His speed is elite. But his K rate, which doesn’t seem to be a fluke but rather a pretty significant hole in his game, is going to keep him a below average hitter. Elite defense + below average hitter = average baseball player in my book. Fangraphs has his WAR as 4.0 in 2010 and 2.6 last year. I suppose TECHNICALLY that makes him above average by definition, but not by much. I’m glad he’s still cheap – I can say that much. He’s CERTAINLY worth what we’re paying him.
First of all, thanks Chad for the link and to everyone for reading and not totally missing the point. Wish I could say the same for most of the commenters on Cincinnati.com. I had to stop reading them because I feel like a lot of them read the first 2 paragraphs and decided to comment.
I wasn’t trying to say anything about Stubbs as a player. I simply wanted to look at a hypothetical of if Stubbs was a great/average/poor bunter, what would that mean to his numbers. I do think being a better bunter would help Stubbs. However, I don’t believe that bunting more simply to cut down strikeouts is going to make things any better. At the very least, it won’t dramatically affect his performance.
@eric nyc: I disagree somewhat. Stubbs will likely never have a great season at the plate, but if he hits .250/.325/.400 (his career MLB line), he’s very valuable because of all of the other things he does well. He’s an excellent defender at an important defensive position and he’s one of the best base runners in the league. I’m bothered by his drop in power in ’11. If that keeps up, it’ll be hard to brush off the strikeouts. However, if he can get that slugging back up over .400, he’s plenty good to have starting every day.
@Joel: Never said I wanted to bench him. All I said was I didn’t want him in the top of the order, and I think everyone’s on board with that. But yeah, we might have a decision to make next year with arbitration coming up if he doesn’t get the power numbers up a bit and at least have a SOME drop in the K’s. To be fair, I can’t imagine he strikes out 200+ times again. Part of that has to be bad luck.
@Steve Mancuso: Reds do some analytics. I’ve met with some of their guys and seen some of what they do. I’m not sure it’s cutting edge, but it’s definitely one of their inputs into decision making. Everyone I’ve talked to says that Jocketty is not opposed to stats. He just doesn’t play them up like other GMs might.
As I read somewhere yesterday, all teams use analytics, but baseball is a zero-sum game and not everybody can be successful.
@eric nyc: strikeouts can be a psychological issue too. Not that Stubbs is a head case (and I’m not trying to play armchair psychologist), but once they get inside your head, the issue can compound itself. Stubbs doesn’t appear to be laid back like Adam Dunn. From quotes that I’ve seen, I think the Ks bother him, probably more than they should.
Joel: Reds do some analytics. I’ve met with some of their guys and seen some of what they do. I’m not sure it’s cutting edge, but it’s definitely one of their inputs into decision making. Everyone I’ve talked to says that Jocketty is not opposed to stats. He just doesn’t play them up like other GMs might.
That’s encouraging. Although it still drives me crazy when Walt and Dusty talk about needing “an RBI guy.”
Lance has a good poll today…who’s the most important Red for 2012?
That’s a really, really tough question. I think it’s a tossup between Latos and Jay Bruce. If either one (or both!) makes the leap from above average to “elite” class, the Reds are in awesome shape for 2012 + next 4-5 seasons. But arguments could be made for Chapman, Bailey, and Rolen. Stubbs jumped out to an early lead but this is really just another example of fans expecting him to make some dramatic shift in approach imo.
@CP: I definitely agree with the first part, but I don’t think Bailey or Chapman are all that vital this year. Bailey can put up a 4.50 ERA and still be fine in the #5 spot of the rotation with our offense. Chapman officially doesn’t have a place in the bullpen anymore and, at least for the moment, doesn’t really in the rotation either. I, for one, am thrilled about that. It means for the first time since late 2009 we might actually approach his season with an eye for what’s best for his development instead of what’s best for the gate. My best guess is he starts the season starting in Louisville and might not find his way back until the All Star break unless there’s an injury. So if he’s going to spend half the season in AAA I don’t think you can argue he’s more important than any of a dozen other guys.
@eric nyc: Yeah, the argument for Chapman is that if he successfully transitions into a starter, the Reds have found a potential #1 or #2. It’s a pure upside argument. For 2012, I don’t think they need him to be a starter (unless injury bug pops up).
Rolen is the biggest variable to me this year. Will he be a relatively healthy, productive #5 hitter, anchoring the infield defense – or will he be an oft-injured, weak-hitting, no-walking 3B? His replacement is large drop-off.
His defense and power is why I say I want him at the back of the lineup instead of saying I wish he wasn’t on the roster. His defense is elite. His speed is elite. But his K rate, which doesn’t seem to be a fluke but rather a pretty significant hole in his game, is going to keep him a below average hitter.
Oh, we agree on all this. Put him in the 7 hole for awhile. I think I inferred too much from the use of term average, which I was basically hearing as “replaceable.” He’s better than that. Like I said, I don’t think he’s a world-beater due to break out, but he’s better than people who trash him say he is.
@Steve Mancuso: Then you agree with Marty B. on that call. He think Rolen is the lynchpin to the Red’s success this year. I agree.
As far as Stubb’s goes, it is the K rate that needs to decrease. His swing motion and selection are the biggest adjustments he needs to make. Bunting is truly an albatross for Stubbs.
The OF has me more than a little nervous. Offensively, we need these guys to have a better year. Offensively, the Cards OF was better than ours last year and they upgraded. The Brewer’s OF has taken a giant hit with Braun’s suspension but Morgan and Hart were still better than anyone except Bruce in our OF.
Bruce needs to be a 5 WAR player consistently and Stubbs needs to be a get to 4.
@rightsaidred: Berkman is sliding over to 1st, correct? He’s a better hitter than Beltran so it’s really an offensive downgrade (but I guess a huge defensive upgrade?) Still, the OF seems to be a push to me for the Cards, with the Cards getting the nod overall (almost entirely to LF). There is a good post over at redreporter that compares the Reds/Cards offenses position by position. Cards edge out the Reds but it is pretty close.
I do not think Stubbs would get so much (negative) attention if we had a quality top of the order combo. The problem is that only one player on the roster (Phillips) truly belongs in those spots and one would ordinarily look to CF as the next logical candidate to take the remaining spot in the lineup.
The comments to the article make me sad. It’s like the commentators just skim it or don’t read it altogether. I guess its no different from political discussions with 2 polar opposites…I really love this comment (paraphrased): “why doesn’t the hitting instructor just tell Stubbs to swing down on the ball and make contact more?” ITS THAT EASY.
Yeah the blog over there has been insufferable as far as the commenters go for a while now. Using Facebook was supposed to make things better but there are even fewer voices writing their opinions there now. The worst part is it seems that the most ignorant “fans” are the ones who do the most talking.
Maybe try him in the two hole? I would think having votto behind you would get you some pitches worth swinging at. Sticking him at the bottom of the order, there gonna pitch around him to get to the 8/9 hole. If he’s gonna swing at everything, at least try to force those pitches over the plate?
His walk rate isn’t horrible so I don’t think they will risk him talking a walk and putting him on for votto/bruce if they give him Garbage. Thats a risk they can take if Johnny Cueto is on deck. I’m not saying to stick win it forever, but give him a dozen games and see what the impact can be?
His drop in power in the second half coincides with a drop in the order, so that may be more an issue of the pitches he sees rather than his power just disappearing.
Especially if his difficulties bother him more than they should, getting some pitches to hit early on might do wonders for his confidence, and then you can move him around a bit in the order.
@CP: The Reds minor league instructors tried to get Eric Davis to hit down on the ball. If they had succeeded, the Reds might not have won the world series in 1990.
@Matt WI: Is it really possible that Stubbs was a 3 WAR player with an OPS+ of 86 last year? I admit to not being an expert on defense, and I know CF isn’t exactly an offensive position, but 3 seems way too high for what Stubbs did last year. I sure won’t be happy with a repeat of last year, for example.
@Steve Mancuso: Steve: that’s an interesting thing you say, and I’ve heard that elsewhere, about Jocketty. However, Mozeliak (sp?) does not exactly seem like a guy who uses analysis—if he were, I cannot believe that they would have traded Rasmus in that ridiculous deal last year. No one will criticize them for it now, of course, but still.
I don’t see the Cards using analytics. Of course, the Houston guy came from the Cards, right? So maybe I’m mistaken.
@Dave Lowenthal: I’ve read numerous negative critiques about Mozeliak from statistically minded Cards’ fans. Which is good for the Reds, but all indications are that he has stepped into the dream scenario for a GM. Step 1) luckbox a WS; Step 2) Avoid all blame for letting your elite franchise player go; Step 3) Play in weak division; and 4) inherit an elite farm system (which he does deserve some credit for).
The strangest thing for me in this whole conversation has been actually dissecting Stubss’ numbers the past few years. 2010 was, clearly, his best year as a pro (out of all of the 2 and a half years to choose from). And while the discussion has revolved around his SO’s over the past year, his actual K% didn’t go up THAT much from 2010 to 2011 – 29% up to 31%. His OBP went down less than 10 points and he made up for a good deal of that by raising his SB’s from 30 to 40. The one glaring decline was in HR’s, which dropped from 22 to 15 even with almost 100 additional AB’s in 2011. Figuring the 200+ SO’s probably stole at least 2-3 HR’s from his total, you’d still think he should have been pushing the 30 HR level we all expected last year with all of the additional plate appearances.
I don’t know what the point of any of that is. I’d like to think that given an entire offseason and ST to work with the hitting coaches he can adjust his approach. Maybe it’s not THAT naive to think he could be in line for a big turnaround season. If you figure Bruce had a down year in 2011 and even Votto was on the lower end of his production, 2012 could be a monster.
The key to Stubbs’ striking out less – without sacrificing power – is better pitch recognition. He’s still a guess hitter with 2 strikes and that leads to a lot of called strike 3 fast balls right down the middle and a lot of swinging miss Ks on breaking stuff well out of the strike zone.
I agree with the conclusion: “If Stubbs can handle it, mixing in a few more bunts could increase his overall value, but the change likely would not be so much to make it worth waiting around for him to become a proficient bunter.”
I don’t agree with a conclusion that learning to bunt would necessarily make Stubbs a less productive player. Chris Heisey is a good bunter and that hasn’t hurt his power numbers (or cut down much on his Ks). He bunts for singles very occasionally (situationally) and effectively.
The problem with Stubbs becoming a better bunter is that Dusty would have him bunting too often for sacrifices. (Hate that.)
My only problem with using stats in this way is that it does not take the situation into account. Rule #1 of a batter: Get on base… Rule #2: get a runner in… Rule #3: Get a runner over. Bunting adds value to all three tasks I don’t care who you are.
@TC: I understand your critique, but I was really just trying to address the people who say “If Drew Stubbs could learn to bunt, he’d have 20-30 more hits just based on his speed alone.” I was mostly interested in what it would mean for his overall productivity if Stubbs tried to bunt for hits more often. That’s a different question than what’s the most optimal way to use Stubbs if he was a good bunter, which is more what I think you’re getting at.
Maybe try him in the two hole? I would think having votto behind you would get you some pitches worth swinging at. Sticking him at the bottom of the order, there gonna pitch around him to get to the 8/9 hole. If he’s gonna swing at everything, at least try to force those pitches over the plate? His walk rate isn’t horrible so I don’t think they will risk him talking a walk and putting him on for votto/bruce if they give him Garbage. Thats a risk they can take if Johnny Cueto is on deck. I’m not saying to stick win it forever, but give him a dozen games and see what the impact can be?His drop in power in the second half coincides with a drop in the order, so that may be more an issue of the pitches he sees rather than his power just disappearing.
Makes sense to at least try it. He should see some fastballs hitting in front of Votto.
@TC: My point is, seriously, that only Rule #1 is really relevant. Rules #2 and #3 don’t even necessarily help you win, as has been proven over and over again. (Sometimes, actually rarely, the bunt is the right play.)
The question is can Stubbs get on base more often if he bunts. I suspect the answer is at best “barely”. Joel showed it’s very small even if he’s an optimal bunter. And we know he looks awful doing it. If we assume he’ll improve only somewhat at it with practice, it’s just not worth it.
If the Reds don’t like who he is, bunting independent, they should trade him.
@Dave Lowenthal: I don’t know either… his Defensive War at BR was 1.0 for last year, adding that to his oWAR, which was 1.9 and you get his 2.9.
In 2010 he was 2.0 on dWar and 3.2 on oWAR. I have no good sense of what means good or bad when it comes to dWAR.
I suspect that a lot of that WAR is defense, which I immediately find suspect, just because of the general difficulty in evaluating defense.
Yeah, I’m generally a numbers kind of guy, but I just can’t warm to WAR at all. I commend the attempt to combine everything into one and be able to compare across the board, but it’s all pretty ugly with WAR. There just doesn’t seem to be a defensive metric out there that is not suspect, such to make it usable for a metric like WAR. I also don’t care for the extreme fuzziness in ranges tossed around for what WAR value ranges describe average, below average, and above average players. It’s also too complicated for the non numbers oriented fan to ever catch on big. To appeal to everyone it has to be fairly understandable and pretty much able to calculated from a basic statistics line. Then there is the whole fuzzy mystery of the Replacement Player which I just do not like at all. I just don’t care to rate how good every other baseball player is in comparison to Alfredo Amezaga. I know there are lots of folks who really like WAR, but at the end of day, I’m still going to use OPS and piece the rest together the best I can.
2011 Interviews:
-- Reds farmhand Matt Klinker
-- Reds Minor League Player of the Year Devin Mesoraco
-- Redleg Nation's Newest Spotlight Player, Reds farmhand Tucker Barnhart
-- Bakersfield Blaze Director of Broadcasting and Media Relations Dan Besbris
Loading ...
Wow, good read, good analysis. Can we just leave a link up of that for future game treads?
My main concern with Drew Stubbs going in to 2012 is whether his preoccupation with cutting down on strike outs will hurt his power numbers. He hit four HR in the last three months of the season compared with eleven in the first half. I wonder if that was due to shortening his swing just to make contact.
While I agree with the conclusion of the article, it becomes a closer call if Stubbs is a 10 HR hitter instead of 22-25.
Saw it yesterday, great stuff. I’d like to think the astute work done in the blogosphere is having some effect on the content of traditional media outlets because you normally don’t see stuff like this. On a related note, did anyone see MLB network’s top 10 right now for first basemen the other night? Joe Sheehan completely exposed Sean Casey for the uninformed mouth breather that he is.
The comments to the article make me sad. It’s like the commentators just skim it or don’t read it altogether. I guess its no different from political discussions with 2 polar opposites…
I really love this comment (paraphrased): “why doesn’t the hitting instructor just tell Stubbs to swing down on the ball and make contact more?” ITS THAT EASY.
Sooooooo basically Drew Stubbs just might not be that great of a baseball player. I think that’s kind of the conclusion a lot of fans are starting to come to grips with. It’s why I can’t get too worked up about all of the Billy Hamilton hype. Speed is fantastic. Rare speed in a baseball player is exciting. But there’s a reason track stars don’t usually become baseball players and Prince Fielder can get a $200 million contract. Personally, I’m fine with Stubbs in the bottom of the lineup adding a little bit of a power threat, but we obviously can’t live and die with his OBP at the top of the order no matter how enticing his speed is. That’s not really news.
It doesn’t really say that at all… it just points out that for people who think Stubbs OBP would be vastly improved through bunting, it really wouldn’t make a big impact. That’s it. It was not a commentary on his overall skill set.
Awesome article, regardless of conclusions. I hope there are people in the Reds organization who are doing analysis like this, and taking it seriously.
We don’t have Bill James, but we need people taking the “Bill James approach” – basically, questioning (and testing) conventional wisdom, and being open to whatever the conclusion is. Nothing ticks me off more than unquestioned conventional wisdom.
Anyway, I’m a Stubbs fan still, and hope he turns it around. I actually kinda felt for the guy last year – he really seemed tortured by the K’s and down on himself, and pressing. I could relate almost. No matter how talented you are, it sucks to fail publicly that many times.
@Matt WI: No, it wasn’t a commentary on his other skills. But I’m putting it in the context of his other skills. For the last few seasons people have been trying to come up with ways to maximize Stubbs’ production while minimizing his weaknesses. It seems like “bunt more” was kind of the last resort. And the article did a really good job of showing why that wouldn’t really make him that much more productive. Which means it can follow that he pretty much is what e is, which isn’t that great. At the very least I think it shows that we shouldn’t expect him to become anything more than average. I don’t hate Drew Stubbs. It’s just that last offseason we were projecting a huge breakout for him and I dont’ think that’s going to happen anymore.
“Past few seasons…” Stubbs put up a 5.2 WAR in 2010. In the last two years combined he’s been worth 8.1 WAR at Baseball Reference. So, I guess we disagree on the intial premise that Stubbs isn’t a valuable CF as is. Mind you, his strikeout rate is a problem, I’m not trying to gloss over that. I’m neither too high nor too low on Stubbs, but I wouldn’t caste him as average. But I’m interested in why you think someone that can hit for some power, run like the wind, play good defense in CF is just average. I’m looking forward to Jason Linden’s CF preview. Should generate some good discussion.
@Matt WI: Which is to say, he doesn’t need to be Eric Davis to be a good ball player. God I miss Eric Davis.
@eric nyc: I think you came close to hitting the nail on the head. He is what he is. But he’s actually an above average player thanks to his 4 tools. It’s hard to imagine him having a worse season than last year and he still provided about 3 WAR. Unless the guy loses his speed or his power, the guy’s floor WAR is above starter-level. The casual fans just don’t realize how thin the CF position is across MLB. They claim they want “pitching and defense” and then whine when guys don’t put up huge offense. I don’t mind Stubbs bunting a little bit more often (a “sacrifice” with Drew is probably statistically correct imo), but guys like Ken Broo and Thom were calling for him to bunt once a game, which is ridiculous.
That said, Chris Heisey makes him somewhat expendable this season because Drew is probably one of the best trade pieces on the roster and the in-season dropoff isn’t too significant between the 2 (though there is across the life of their careers). Most importantly, Drew will be entering arbitration next season.
Strongly agree. I know some teams have “analytics” departments. I heard the new GM for the Astros interviewed a few weeks ago and he sounds really committed to using advanced statistics to help with decision making.
I’ve read a few times that Walt’s resistance to the statistical side was one of the reasons he parted ways with the Cardinals.
It’s part statistics and part willingness to reconsider baseball conventional wisdom. Example, the central importance of on-base-percentage to scoring runs. Another example, understanding that RBI are a function of opportunity, not clutchiness.
@Matt WI: His defense and power is why I say I want him at the back of the lineup instead of saying I wish he wasn’t on the roster. His defense is elite. His speed is elite. But his K rate, which doesn’t seem to be a fluke but rather a pretty significant hole in his game, is going to keep him a below average hitter. Elite defense + below average hitter = average baseball player in my book. Fangraphs has his WAR as 4.0 in 2010 and 2.6 last year. I suppose TECHNICALLY that makes him above average by definition, but not by much. I’m glad he’s still cheap – I can say that much. He’s CERTAINLY worth what we’re paying him.
First of all, thanks Chad for the link and to everyone for reading and not totally missing the point. Wish I could say the same for most of the commenters on Cincinnati.com. I had to stop reading them because I feel like a lot of them read the first 2 paragraphs and decided to comment.
I wasn’t trying to say anything about Stubbs as a player. I simply wanted to look at a hypothetical of if Stubbs was a great/average/poor bunter, what would that mean to his numbers. I do think being a better bunter would help Stubbs. However, I don’t believe that bunting more simply to cut down strikeouts is going to make things any better. At the very least, it won’t dramatically affect his performance.
@eric nyc: I disagree somewhat. Stubbs will likely never have a great season at the plate, but if he hits .250/.325/.400 (his career MLB line), he’s very valuable because of all of the other things he does well. He’s an excellent defender at an important defensive position and he’s one of the best base runners in the league. I’m bothered by his drop in power in ’11. If that keeps up, it’ll be hard to brush off the strikeouts. However, if he can get that slugging back up over .400, he’s plenty good to have starting every day.
@Joel: Never said I wanted to bench him. All I said was I didn’t want him in the top of the order, and I think everyone’s on board with that. But yeah, we might have a decision to make next year with arbitration coming up if he doesn’t get the power numbers up a bit and at least have a SOME drop in the K’s. To be fair, I can’t imagine he strikes out 200+ times again. Part of that has to be bad luck.
@Steve Mancuso: Reds do some analytics. I’ve met with some of their guys and seen some of what they do. I’m not sure it’s cutting edge, but it’s definitely one of their inputs into decision making. Everyone I’ve talked to says that Jocketty is not opposed to stats. He just doesn’t play them up like other GMs might.
As I read somewhere yesterday, all teams use analytics, but baseball is a zero-sum game and not everybody can be successful.
@eric nyc: strikeouts can be a psychological issue too. Not that Stubbs is a head case (and I’m not trying to play armchair psychologist), but once they get inside your head, the issue can compound itself. Stubbs doesn’t appear to be laid back like Adam Dunn. From quotes that I’ve seen, I think the Ks bother him, probably more than they should.
That’s encouraging. Although it still drives me crazy when Walt and Dusty talk about needing “an RBI guy.”
Lance has a good poll today…who’s the most important Red for 2012?
That’s a really, really tough question. I think it’s a tossup between Latos and Jay Bruce. If either one (or both!) makes the leap from above average to “elite” class, the Reds are in awesome shape for 2012 + next 4-5 seasons. But arguments could be made for Chapman, Bailey, and Rolen. Stubbs jumped out to an early lead but this is really just another example of fans expecting him to make some dramatic shift in approach imo.
@CP: I definitely agree with the first part, but I don’t think Bailey or Chapman are all that vital this year. Bailey can put up a 4.50 ERA and still be fine in the #5 spot of the rotation with our offense. Chapman officially doesn’t have a place in the bullpen anymore and, at least for the moment, doesn’t really in the rotation either. I, for one, am thrilled about that. It means for the first time since late 2009 we might actually approach his season with an eye for what’s best for his development instead of what’s best for the gate. My best guess is he starts the season starting in Louisville and might not find his way back until the All Star break unless there’s an injury. So if he’s going to spend half the season in AAA I don’t think you can argue he’s more important than any of a dozen other guys.
@eric nyc: Yeah, the argument for Chapman is that if he successfully transitions into a starter, the Reds have found a potential #1 or #2. It’s a pure upside argument. For 2012, I don’t think they need him to be a starter (unless injury bug pops up).
Rolen is the biggest variable to me this year. Will he be a relatively healthy, productive #5 hitter, anchoring the infield defense – or will he be an oft-injured, weak-hitting, no-walking 3B? His replacement is large drop-off.
Oh, we agree on all this. Put him in the 7 hole for awhile. I think I inferred too much from the use of term average, which I was basically hearing as “replaceable.” He’s better than that. Like I said, I don’t think he’s a world-beater due to break out, but he’s better than people who trash him say he is.
@Steve Mancuso: Then you agree with Marty B. on that call. He think Rolen is the lynchpin to the Red’s success this year. I agree.
As far as Stubb’s goes, it is the K rate that needs to decrease. His swing motion and selection are the biggest adjustments he needs to make. Bunting is truly an albatross for Stubbs.
The OF has me more than a little nervous. Offensively, we need these guys to have a better year. Offensively, the Cards OF was better than ours last year and they upgraded. The Brewer’s OF has taken a giant hit with Braun’s suspension but Morgan and Hart were still better than anyone except Bruce in our OF.
Bruce needs to be a 5 WAR player consistently and Stubbs needs to be a get to 4.
@rightsaidred: Berkman is sliding over to 1st, correct? He’s a better hitter than Beltran so it’s really an offensive downgrade (but I guess a huge defensive upgrade?) Still, the OF seems to be a push to me for the Cards, with the Cards getting the nod overall (almost entirely to LF). There is a good post over at redreporter that compares the Reds/Cards offenses position by position. Cards edge out the Reds but it is pretty close.
I do not think Stubbs would get so much (negative) attention if we had a quality top of the order combo. The problem is that only one player on the roster (Phillips) truly belongs in those spots and one would ordinarily look to CF as the next logical candidate to take the remaining spot in the lineup.
Yeah the blog over there has been insufferable as far as the commenters go for a while now. Using Facebook was supposed to make things better but there are even fewer voices writing their opinions there now. The worst part is it seems that the most ignorant “fans” are the ones who do the most talking.
@Steve Mancuso: I think I love the word “clutchiness”
My Stubbs projection: .253/.335/.395 16HR, 180K in about 600 AB
Maybe try him in the two hole? I would think having votto behind you would get you some pitches worth swinging at. Sticking him at the bottom of the order, there gonna pitch around him to get to the 8/9 hole. If he’s gonna swing at everything, at least try to force those pitches over the plate?
His walk rate isn’t horrible so I don’t think they will risk him talking a walk and putting him on for votto/bruce if they give him Garbage. Thats a risk they can take if Johnny Cueto is on deck. I’m not saying to stick win it forever, but give him a dozen games and see what the impact can be?
His drop in power in the second half coincides with a drop in the order, so that may be more an issue of the pitches he sees rather than his power just disappearing.
Especially if his difficulties bother him more than they should, getting some pitches to hit early on might do wonders for his confidence, and then you can move him around a bit in the order.
Wow that seems a little vicious.
@CP: The Reds minor league instructors tried to get Eric Davis to hit down on the ball. If they had succeeded, the Reds might not have won the world series in 1990.
@Matt WI: Is it really possible that Stubbs was a 3 WAR player with an OPS+ of 86 last year? I admit to not being an expert on defense, and I know CF isn’t exactly an offensive position, but 3 seems way too high for what Stubbs did last year. I sure won’t be happy with a repeat of last year, for example.
@Steve Mancuso: Steve: that’s an interesting thing you say, and I’ve heard that elsewhere, about Jocketty. However, Mozeliak (sp?) does not exactly seem like a guy who uses analysis—if he were, I cannot believe that they would have traded Rasmus in that ridiculous deal last year. No one will criticize them for it now, of course, but still.
I don’t see the Cards using analytics. Of course, the Houston guy came from the Cards, right? So maybe I’m mistaken.
@Dave Lowenthal: I’ve read numerous negative critiques about Mozeliak from statistically minded Cards’ fans. Which is good for the Reds, but all indications are that he has stepped into the dream scenario for a GM. Step 1) luckbox a WS; Step 2) Avoid all blame for letting your elite franchise player go; Step 3) Play in weak division; and 4) inherit an elite farm system (which he does deserve some credit for).
My favorite comment on Joel’s excellent piece was: “if Stubbs got on 8 more times per season, that could be 1 or 2 more wins”.
Just think, if Stubbs really breaks out and improves his OBP by say 75 points, the Reds might win 10 more games.
Good lord.
The strangest thing for me in this whole conversation has been actually dissecting Stubss’ numbers the past few years. 2010 was, clearly, his best year as a pro (out of all of the 2 and a half years to choose from). And while the discussion has revolved around his SO’s over the past year, his actual K% didn’t go up THAT much from 2010 to 2011 – 29% up to 31%. His OBP went down less than 10 points and he made up for a good deal of that by raising his SB’s from 30 to 40. The one glaring decline was in HR’s, which dropped from 22 to 15 even with almost 100 additional AB’s in 2011. Figuring the 200+ SO’s probably stole at least 2-3 HR’s from his total, you’d still think he should have been pushing the 30 HR level we all expected last year with all of the additional plate appearances.
I don’t know what the point of any of that is. I’d like to think that given an entire offseason and ST to work with the hitting coaches he can adjust his approach. Maybe it’s not THAT naive to think he could be in line for a big turnaround season. If you figure Bruce had a down year in 2011 and even Votto was on the lower end of his production, 2012 could be a monster.
The key to Stubbs’ striking out less – without sacrificing power – is better pitch recognition. He’s still a guess hitter with 2 strikes and that leads to a lot of called strike 3 fast balls right down the middle and a lot of swinging miss Ks on breaking stuff well out of the strike zone.
I agree with the conclusion: “If Stubbs can handle it, mixing in a few more bunts could increase his overall value, but the change likely would not be so much to make it worth waiting around for him to become a proficient bunter.”
I don’t agree with a conclusion that learning to bunt would necessarily make Stubbs a less productive player. Chris Heisey is a good bunter and that hasn’t hurt his power numbers (or cut down much on his Ks). He bunts for singles very occasionally (situationally) and effectively.
The problem with Stubbs becoming a better bunter is that Dusty would have him bunting too often for sacrifices. (Hate that.)
My only problem with using stats in this way is that it does not take the situation into account. Rule #1 of a batter: Get on base… Rule #2: get a runner in… Rule #3: Get a runner over. Bunting adds value to all three tasks I don’t care who you are.
@Dave Lowenthal: You’ll have to take that up with the good folks at Baseball Reference.
@TC: I understand your critique, but I was really just trying to address the people who say “If Drew Stubbs could learn to bunt, he’d have 20-30 more hits just based on his speed alone.” I was mostly interested in what it would mean for his overall productivity if Stubbs tried to bunt for hits more often. That’s a different question than what’s the most optimal way to use Stubbs if he was a good bunter, which is more what I think you’re getting at.
Makes sense to at least try it. He should see some fastballs hitting in front of Votto.
@Matt WI: I suspect that a lot of that WAR is defense, which I immediately find suspect, just because of the general difficulty in evaluating defense.
I believe Stubbs is a good but overrated defender, if that makes sense. But that should carry no weight; it’s just my opinion.
@TC: Rule #4: Stubbs hits a homer and scores all runners on base and himself. I mean, bunting takes that possibility away.
@TC: My point is, seriously, that only Rule #1 is really relevant. Rules #2 and #3 don’t even necessarily help you win, as has been proven over and over again. (Sometimes, actually rarely, the bunt is the right play.)
The question is can Stubbs get on base more often if he bunts. I suspect the answer is at best “barely”. Joel showed it’s very small even if he’s an optimal bunter. And we know he looks awful doing it. If we assume he’ll improve only somewhat at it with practice, it’s just not worth it.
If the Reds don’t like who he is, bunting independent, they should trade him.
@Dave Lowenthal: I don’t know either… his Defensive War at BR was 1.0 for last year, adding that to his oWAR, which was 1.9 and you get his 2.9.
In 2010 he was 2.0 on dWar and 3.2 on oWAR. I have no good sense of what means good or bad when it comes to dWAR.
Yeah, I’m generally a numbers kind of guy, but I just can’t warm to WAR at all. I commend the attempt to combine everything into one and be able to compare across the board, but it’s all pretty ugly with WAR. There just doesn’t seem to be a defensive metric out there that is not suspect, such to make it usable for a metric like WAR. I also don’t care for the extreme fuzziness in ranges tossed around for what WAR value ranges describe average, below average, and above average players. It’s also too complicated for the non numbers oriented fan to ever catch on big. To appeal to everyone it has to be fairly understandable and pretty much able to calculated from a basic statistics line. Then there is the whole fuzzy mystery of the Replacement Player which I just do not like at all. I just don’t care to rate how good every other baseball player is in comparison to Alfredo Amezaga. I know there are lots of folks who really like WAR, but at the end of day, I’m still going to use OPS and piece the rest together the best I can.