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Writing these first few previews is so nice and easy. No need to pay attention to bench guys yet because, really, who’s displacing Joey Votto or Brandon Phillips… or Jay Bruce?
Jay Bruce is probably not going to the Hall of Fame. Can we just get that out of the way right now? I know we all expected more out of him and he’s been a bit of a disappointment, but do cut him some slack. He’s still plenty young. Younger than Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, and Yonder Alonso (though he only beats Alonso by a few days). This is his fifth season in the majors. Think about that for minute. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains. And Jay Bruce is in his fifth season in the big leagues.
And because he’s been around so long, we have a fair notion of who he is. He can hit, for instance, though not as well as we hoped. He’s probably good for 30+ homers over a season and he walks enough to make up for a batting average that’s lower than you’d like to see. And he can field. Or can he? The numbers are mixed here and even our eyes told us that he wasn’t as good last year as he had been in the past.
Bruce is probably doomed to be a perennial disappointment. He’ll be retired before people stop calling to send him down to triple-A and look up long enough to realize that, though he wasn’t as good as he might have been, he was still very good. Right now, for instance, he’s the second best hitter on the team. And much like the first two players we’ve profiled, the Reds will be hurting if he misses significant time.
But what to expect from the local enigma? The projection systems are somewhat mixed on offense, but they all seem to agree he’ll bounce back with the glove (at least the ones that bother with fielding). Not to his 2010 heights, but enough to be comfortably above average. I would tend to agree. The Reds will get more value from Bruce even if he hits exactly as he did last year.
And the bat? As I said, projection systems are mixed. Basically, they are arguing about whether the 2010 or 2011 version of Bruce was the real thing. Unlike with Phillips, I’m going with the optimistic side of things. Bruce is still plenty young and there is still reason to think he’ll improve a bit. I am ignoring the BABIP evidence for a change, but again, I’m mostly giving him extra credit for his youth. Correspondingly, I’m predicting right field as the first position where the Reds should definitively improve over last year.
2012 Slash Line Prediction: .270/.350/.500
2011 Right Field WAR: 3.3
2012 Best Guess WAR: 5.0
Projected Difference: +1.7
2012 Floor WAR: 2.5
2012 Ceiling WAR: 7.0
Redleg Nation Position-by-Position Season Preview:
First Base
Second Base
Right Field
Center Field
Catcher
Starting Pitching – Front End of the Rotation
Bullpen
Starting Pitching – Back End of the Rotation
Third Base
Shortstop
Left Field
Season Preview Wrap-Up
Can you link to the fielding numbers that show Bruce was off in 2011? I didn’t notice any problem, and still think he’s the best fielding RF in the game. But I admit to tuning out the second half of the season.
The thing I always try to mention about Bruce is his hustle. He plays hard ALL THE TIME. It’s especially noticeable in the field. I think it’s important to mention this. First, because it’s notably true. Second, because Jay Bruce is exactly the kind of guy who doesn’t get credit for hustling. (The media loves to tout the hustle of little Theriot-type guys, who aren’t actually good at baseball.)
Quitter. Take the pain. lol
“Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains. ” Think about it… – nice quote, well the hell done.
I do think the discussion of this review will get pretty dicey. But great job, Jason, staying above it. Like I said, well the hell done.
Last one… I’d take a 5 WAR from Bruce anyday. That could be the top WAR for the NL RFr this year. (Not the AL though)
“Jay Bruce is probably not going to the Hall of Fame.” You used a fuzzy word there “probably,” leaving room for argument, so let’s argue.
Baseball-Reference.com has Jay Bruce’s most similar players by age. Who are they? Barry Bonds (22), Willie Horton (23), and Reggie Jackson (24).
Compare Bonds’ first 4 years to Bruce’s (each was 21 when they debuted)
.223/.330/.416 v. .254/.314/.453
.261/.329/.492 v. .223/.303/.470
.283/.368/.491 v. .281/.353/.493
.248/.351/.426 v. .256/.341/.474
It was in Bonds’ 5th season that he became a perennial .300 hitter. I think most of us would agree that before ‘roiding all up, Bonds was on his way to the HOF, and he still may get there once the dust settles.
Willie the Wonder Horton – not that Willie Horton – was a 4 time All-Star, has a statue outside of Comerica Park, the Tigers retired his number and is statistically very similar to George Foster. A great player, but slightly below HOF worthy.
Jackson, is of course, in the Hall.
Now, do these comparisons mean that Bruce will be in the HOF. No. But his future for the Hall looks a lot brighter than the picture you’re painting.
The thing with Bruce and Stubbs is that they’ve been pretty streaky and are prone to overthinking. Partly it’s who they are, but some of it is on Dusty. The last two seasons, Dusty has ridden them like rented mules the first three months of the season only to see them slump badly after the All Star break. He needs to be more concientious about finding rest days for them to mentally recharge.
@Chris Garber: If you click on his name in the article, it will take you to his Fangraphs page, scroll down a bit and you’ll find a pretty thorough listing of the various advanced fielding stats.
@David: That Bonds-Bruce comparison is fascinating. I don’t think anyone expects him to match Bonds’ pre-steroid career arc, but even if Bruce matches 80 percent of his production, we’re looking at OPS+ of 135, 128, 164 and 163 through his age 28 seasons. Would anybody be mad about that?
I take great exception to anyone who sees Jay Bruce as anything other than a great player on an exceptional career arc. The kid is putting up gawdy numbers at a young age. He’s the 3rd youngest player in the history of the franchise to reach 100 HRs behind only Bench and Robinson. Bill James’ .270/.349/.510 projection is very likely Bruces’ floor. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see .285/.385/.535.
Realizing that OPS+ wouldn’t be the best measure for my purposes, so what if Bruce managed 80 percent of Bonds’ OPS the next four seasons? Those numbers would be: .776, .739, .864 and .909. Still pretty good, no?
@Sultan of Swaff: Ugh Dusty again. I HATE that guy! (Lol, joking of course) Dusty is a better manager than people give him credit, but I don’t think people will every agree with that of this board. Part of the problem having Sparky (and to a lesser extent Sweet Lou) as manager in the past is that no one else can measure up. IMHO, Baker is the best manager since Lou Pineilla.
Looking more closely at my hypothetical Bruce OPS vs. Bonds, I don’t think there’s any way he regresses to .776 or posts a career-worst .739 in a full season at age 26, so 80 percent is probably pretty conservative. Bonds put up .970, .924, 1.080 and 1.136 in those seasons (1990-1993).
Does anyone really view Bruce as a perennial disappointment? I know that Joey Votto became what we thought Bruce would be and vice versa, but Bruce is still very much an above average player. His defense is top notch regardless of what the advanced metrics say about 2011. He also sports great power and has decent on base skills. I know some like to rag on the K’s and streaky hitting, but when it’s all said and done, I think there might only be 2 or 3 right fielders in the game who I’d rather have. He’s simply a great ball player.
@David: I would love if he even turned into Bonds-lite. It is worth noting, however, that the run environment is different now than it was then (though I’d have to check how different, given the recent league-wide regressions).
@TC: No one is comparing Dusty to anyone, simply making an observation as a fan who watches EVERY GAME. It’s nothing anyone with a pair of eyeballs can’t see, and yes, the numbers bear it out.
“IMHO, Baker is the best manager since Lou Pineilla.” Personally, I liked Davey Johnson better. Trader Jack gets an honorable mention as well. As for the rest, it’s a real backhanded compliment.
I didn’t realize Jay’s comps were so formidable. I suppose its those cold streaks which I remember. When he looks bad, he looks BAD. I guess Reggie did as well. I would definately be happy with the career of any of those gentlemen. Jay’s also much better with the glove than all but Bonds.
Love the insight. It gets me pumped up for the season.
I am just wondering how did fans enjoy this wonderful game before the invention of WAR, or VORP or other such stats?
Haha, great post. I still go by traditional pitching metrics: ERA, IP, WHIP, and the ‘ol eyeball. Baseball is a game meant to be observed, hence the cathedrals they play in, slow pace, and in the modern era, lack of commercials until the half-inning is complete. Sabermetrics overshadow that aspect of evaluation sometimes.
There’s a fallacy that advanced stats are always counterintuitive, that they somehow disprove what the eye sees or the traditional stats depict. I suppose they do sometimes, but more often than not, they reinforce those standards of measurement.
Sabermetrics are just more tools at our disposal. You can certainly get a lot of things done with a hammer, a couple of screwdrivers and a hacksaw. But you can accomplish even more, and more proficiently, when you’ve got a power drill, level, jigsaw, vicegrip, router, etc., on hand.
Excellent, excellent post.
The enjoyment doesn’t change with an increase in understanding.
@dn4192: The same way they do now. They watched it and enjoyed the beauty of the game. I fail to see why people can’t appreciate both. I’ve written a few posts for this site that address the poetry and beauty of the game. That has nothing to do with stats. However, stats are nice, too.
@preach: Just a note on some of the Bruce/Bonds comparison. Craig Wilson is Bruce’s top comp on BR. I had kind of forgotten he existed, and it wasn’t that long ago he was playing in the majors.
I’m not saying Bruce is going to fall off the face of the earth, just that we need to be cautious in our expectations.
Craig Wilson had 99 career HRs and a career .263 average, so if Bruce’s career ended at 24, then yeah, Craig Wilson would be a pretty good comp.
People were projecting a breakout year for Bruce through projections last February and two before that. I think many fans don’t see Jay as a bust, they just want to see him evolve into this all-globe slugger that he’s consistently billed as via the nat’l media and his bigger fans.
@Sultan of Swaff: I watch a lot of baseball and would consider myself rather educated on the matter. My eyeballs tell me Dusty is a pretty decent manager. Also, what numbers show Dusty has anything to do with Jay Bruces mid-summer decline. Would love to see them.
@preach: I had quite forgotten about Davey Johnson. Stupid me. Davey had a better winning percentage of 54% as opposed to Baker’s 50%. I forgot him because Davey was here during the last player’s rebellion which made them forgettable years really. But he did have 2 NLC championships to Baker’s 1. AND Johnson won the NLC 2 out of the 3 years he was here.
You add in what he did with other clubs such as take the Met to the World Series and WIN, and the absolutely MAGIC he did in Washington last year winning 2/3s of the games he management (what!).
Thanks for pointing out my oversight.
Now, regarding Trader Jack, I might agree because he actually had a higher winning percentage than even Davey Johnson at 56%. But he didn’t win anything.
My point in all this is while (in truth) I do think it is time for a different manager, I won’t be doing the happy dance this year like other when Dusty gets the axe. Not that the Sultan was doing this, in fact I think he’s always pretty respectful, but I don’t like it when others rejoice with bad things happen to good people. e.g. Harang (though everyone on this blog was awesome about that), Cordero, and next Dusty.
Fans are pretty good at spotting the true greats. Go back through history and look at some of the “great” sabermetric players and notice they just happen to coincide with fan favorites:
-Ruth produced 14 & 14.7 WAR in 1921 & 1923.
-Mantle had WAR of 12.9 and 12.5 in 1956 and 1957
-Mays averaged 10+ WAR from 1962-1965.
-Morgan averaged 10+ WAR from 1972-1976.
-Bonds had 12.5, 12.2, 10.3, and 12.4 WAR from 2001-2004.
The eyeball test is fine & dandy up to a certain point. It’s all the “other” players that sabermetrics permits apples to be compared to oranges to be compared with pineapples, etc. The vast majority of MLB teams sucked at this aspect of the game until the past 25 years or so. For example (not saying this is the best example but the one I could think off top of my head), Bobby Bonilla was a great player on the Pirates. Subjectively, he was a very good hitter though mediocre fielder. He had all the “baseball card” stats (potential for 30+ HRs, good average, high RBIs). So the Mets signed him to the highest contract in the game for 5 years. He produces a total of 12 WAR during that span. Using sabermetrics, they would have seen that Bonilla’s best season of 5.7 WAR was essentially Drew Stubbs or Jay Bruce. Fine players but clearly not worth the most money at their positions. Teams were substantially overpaying sluggers.
Every team now has stat nerds working inside the organization. One of the writers at Hardball Times just got signed to an employment agreement with a MLB team (he can’t state publicly which one yet). He got noticed WRITING ON A BLOG. Productivity marches on.
@David: David, there has to be room between your view and our friend secondguesser who seems certain that Bruce is headed for the crapper, or at least his version of it, which is that Bruce is mediocre.
Consider, for example, this post:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/7976/why-jay-bruce-may-have-reached-his-peak
And that was before 2011, when Bruce actually underperformed expectations.
I do not believe that Bruce is currently a great player. I believe that is a supportable view. Were one to map out the possibilities, I think that his career arc could take him to (a) greatness, as in possible HOF, (b) very, very good, (c) good, and (d) above average. I’m not sure what probabilities to hang on each outcome. I would need to think about it, and I still wouldn’t know.
@secondguessingfanbase: Yeah, what a great post Drew had. Excellent, perhaps award winning on this site.
@Dave Lowenthal: I remember that article. Excellent, excellent reach back. A few weeks ago, well before this post I seem to remember a similar discussion about Bruce. I think we were all curious why people mentioned Votto, Phillips, and Bruce as the super stars. (Ah! I remember…) Bill said it by mistake, and we all agreed that while Bruce is good, he doesn’t deserve “super star” status like Votto and Phillips.
While I think he is wildly over-valued by some in the marketing department in the front office (I’m looking at you BOR), I’m still very happy he is with the Reds. Not the best (C Beltran 2011 WAR 4.7), but better than most (J Bruce 2011 WAR 3.3) at his position which is really all that matters.
I feel that the Bill James projection of .270/.349/.510 is a pretty fair prognostication for Bruce this season.
I really feel Bruce is a true .265 hitter. He simply does not make enough contact to merit a higher average, especially when you consider how infrequently he goes the other way. Because of this he is always subject to a major shift when he hits.
Bruce is still a pretty tremendous value given his contract and skills, so I do not think there is too much to complain about here. A really good RF that will probably make a handful of ASGs. He’s a hell of a lot better than Austin Kearns.
This is completely unrelated to anything relevant. At 31 seconds in the referenced video, you will see a member of Primus that resembles Homer Bailey like none other.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=953PkxFNiko&ob=av3e
@RedLeg75: Disturbing. Truly. Also reminds me of Christain Bale. Whoa that’s a disturbing video.
@TC: By my coutn Bruce appeared in 89 games pre-All Star Break with just 5 or so being non-starts.
That seems like a lot. Especially considering he was red hot in may and the very start of June and Dusty ran him out there non-stop during a grueling stretch and he subsequently tanks for the rest of June. The correlation seems more than coincidental at least.