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Brandon Phillips is the crazy uncle of the Reds. He says whatever he wants to say, and we mostly love him for it. Lately, he’s stuck his foot in his mouth a lot less, though. Say what you want about Dusty Baker, but Phillips has clearly matured under his tutelage. Phillips is someone many fans didn’t like several years ago but is now second only to Joey Votto in popularity among Reds players.
In addition to being fun to have around, Phillips has always been fun to watch. Who could forget this play, for instance. There are plenty more. Just go to youtube and, despite MLB’s ridiculous policies, you’ll be entertained for a while watching Phillips.
Last year was, without a doubt, the best year Phillips has had in the majors. His 6.0 WAR put him head and shoulders above all other NL second basemen. And, as much as it pains me to write it, that’s not going to happen again.
Phillips is good, and he’s going to keep being good for a while, but last year was almost certainly his career year and it was largely the result of luck. I write about batting average on balls in play (BABIP) a lot here, but there’s good reason. Consider for instance, that Phillips’ improved offensive performance last year was almost entirely the result of a batting average that went up by 25 points from 2010. Consider also that his 2011 BABIP was 30 points higher than his career level and, well, you can see where that came from.
I’ve written before that I expect Phillips to decline gracefully, and I still do, but we should start to see that decline in 2012. Every projection system I can get to agrees. They are, frankly, startling in the similarity of their projections for Phillips. His projected OPS ranges from .753 to .769. When five different systems are all a couple of base hits away from agreement, you can pretty much take that to the bank. If there is a silver lining offensively, it’s that the peripherals that aren’t based on luck (walk rate, K rate, etc.) have been very consistent for the last several years and don’t point to Phillips falling off a cliff. We should simply expect the return of his pre-2011 numbers.
Defense should also be a concern, however. Fielding declines early, and Brandon derives a lot of his value from his glove. I wouldn’t expect his hands to age, but he’s going to lose a step eventually. He’ll still be good out there, but again, don’t be surprised if he isn’t quite as amazing this year as he has been.
So, after the Votto optimism, we have to check ourselves a bit and face the facts that the Reds aren’t going to be as good at second as they were last year. Fortunately, they’ll still be good and Phillips still figures to play most every game. He’s had some niggling injuries in the past, but he’s still a good bet to take the field at least 150 times, so there’s no need to discuss a back up, yet. Much like Votto, if the Phillips spends significant time off the field, the Reds are going to have problems.
2012 Slash-line Prediction: .275/.330/.435
2011 First Base WAR: 6.0
2012 Best Guess WAR: 4.0
Projected Difference: -2.0
2012 Floor WAR: 2.5
2012 Ceiling WAR: 6.0
Redleg Nation Position-by-Position Season Preview:
First Base
Second Base
Right Field
Center Field
Catcher
Starting Pitching – Front End of the Rotation
Bullpen
Starting Pitching – Back End of the Rotation
Third Base
Shortstop
Left Field
Season Preview Wrap-Up
Well done on this one.
Here is a question and I don’t know the answer. Last year, BP’s line drive percentage was up. He had been stuck at 15-16% for several years, but last year it was 19.8%. In raw data, he had 22 more line drives last year than in 2010 in 12 less plate appearances. That, I think, can account for most of his increase in batting average (with related increase in overall value). Any reason to think that increased line drive percentage is sustainable? Does that reflect a change in approach or just a statistical fluctuation? My gut says the latter.
@per14: My gut says the former. It seems pretty obvious that Phillips takes bigger swings when he’s batting fourth as opposed to 1st or 2nd. Now if he can just maintain that “line drive” approach, regardless of where he’s hitting in the lineup, we may be on to something.
I am certainly not a sabermetric guru. However, I would like to know a bit more about contextual realities when it comes to these projections. How is spot in the order, who is hitting behind a batter, likelihood of men on base, etc. integrated into the projections? . . . Also, I wonder if any allowances are made in a batter’s ability to defy convention through approach. That is, are “smart” players recognized as such in these projections? . . .
@Drew Mac: Good questions. I think the short answer to some of them is that the contexts you mentioned tend to have little actual effect on the player’s given outcomes over the course of a full season.
The projections simply consider past performance and attempt to project that into future performance. Once in awhile, there are players who do make a change in approach or mechanics that changes the dynamics, but there would be no way to predict that necessarily… a good example would be Asdrubal Caberra, who, as reported, took Orlando Cabrerra’s advice to heart and started hitting for more power. He’s now one slick hitting SS. I doubt ZIPs saw Jose Bautista coming at the age he did, but can now account for him.
The projections are like actuary tables… they aren’t necessarily claiming to be predictive, but you can count on pretty reliable results within an expected range by sheer force of numbers. There will always be outliers.
@Drew Mac: And also, some of the numbers that require a lot of context: RBI, a pitcher’s wins, etc, aren’t necessarily good measures of a player in the first place.
I can get behind a slight regression to the mean offesively, but defensively, don’t look for boogeymen where they don’t exist. The guy is barely 30, is still at least 3 years from that ‘graceful decline’, and his D is so far ahead of the pack right now it’s not even fair. After watching some of the MLB network’s Top 10 right now program, I’m convinced the defensive metrics are an abysmal failure–overvaluing guys who don’t even pass the eye test. The current systems are inadequate to correctly value Phillips.
@per14: In general, a player who hits more line drives will have a greater chance of posting an above average BABIP. Miguel Cabrera, who is no one’s idea of a speed demon, has a career BABIP of .347. Predictably, he has a line drive rate that is above average. To put it bluntly, he often hits the horse crap out of the baseball.
Like RiverCity Redleg was talking about, if Brandon is spending less time trying to hit home runs with his golf swing could have resulted in better at bats and more solid contact. I’m not calling Phillips any type of Cabrera. One season is a small sample size. But as long as he continues to hit 20% line drives, we can expect him to continue hitting at an above average BABIP.
@Sultan of Swaff: It’s not that I think Phillips won’t be great on D, it’s that I think chances are good he will be less great, and that does affect his value. Fielding tends to go a bit before hitting.
@lookatthathat: Basically what you said. He does it twice in a row and then we’ll talk.
I agree with all the stat projections, especially how players start their decline around 30, but no one has mentioned that this is a contract year for BP. There has to be data to see how that affects players in BP’s age range. I can’t imagine a significant decline (if there’s one at all) this year based upon his desire for a longterm deal and lots of money.
@RacinJason: When I’ve seen the data, it’s suggested that contract years have almost no effect. Basically, despite what we sometimes want to believe major leaguers try hard pretty much all the time.
Good comments. I realize, of course, that increased line drive percentage can increase BAPIP, and that hitting line drives is something that a hitter can somewhat control–thus, a way that a hitter can control his BAPIP. Thus, my initial question.
The point that maybe he changed his approach due to being put in the 1 or 2 slot (rather than clean-up) in the lineup is a good one, I think. I hadn’t thought of that. Maybe there is reason to hope that he can sustain his increased line drive % and thus maintain his increased batting average.
Are there batted ball percentages out there for where a batter hits in the lineup? I would think there would be but I’ve only looked on Fangraphs and don’t see it. (And I’m not sure we would have big enough sample sizes but would still be interesting.)
@per14: If you’re talking about for an individual, hitter, I don’t think I’ve seen anything like that. I know I’ve read an article or two that address this in an across-baseball kind of way, but it’s mostly what you’d expect given how predictable most managers are with batting order. I do know that there is very little evidence that batting at a different spot in the lineup has any kind of effect on the hitter.