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If there is one question mark on this edition of the Reds, it has to be Bronson Arroyo. Last year, he was miserable, but that came on the heels of consecutive years as very solid major league starting pitcher. In theory, he should be poised to rebound. His case of mono is behind him, hopefully the back is healed. There’s every reason to think he’ll bounce back.
The Reds just signed Jeff Francis to a minor league deal. That is great insurance. Francis was hurt and missed all of 2009, but other than that, his underlying numbers have been good. Remember, until last year, he pitched exclusively for the Rockies, so a lot of those ERAs are worse than they would be otherwise. His yearly WAR is surprisingly good.
I do not think Jeff Francis should be given a spot in the rotation. Let’s stop right there on that line of thinking.
However, I do think it’s going to be apparent from the start how good Bronson will be this year. He lost a lot off his fastball last year. That’s either going to come back or not. I just don’t think the Reds should kid themselves.
My proposal is this: Assume Bronson will be in the rotation. Don’t let on otherwise, but take a good hard look at those spring starts. Be honest with yourself. Is his stuff back or not? If it is, great. Let him take a run at it. Old Bronson is welcome on any team I’m a fan of. But if his stuff isn’t back, cut him loose. I know that’s a tough contract to eat, but if the Reds really want to win now, they have to be honest.
Francis is a decent pitcher. He’s not going to win a Cy Young, but he’d be the fourth or fifth best starter on the vast majority of major league teams. He’s a great back up plan. The Reds shouldn’t wait to use him until it’s too late.
Update: After I initially put this post together, more details came out about the Francis contract. It seems he can opt out by March 28 if he likes. This makes me wonder if the plan outlined above might have some chance of coming true.
I don’t think Arroyo’s problem was loss of velocity last year. Yes, his fastball did lose about 1 MPH on average, but I think his major problem was pitch selection, specifically to left handed hitters. Lefties crushed Arroyo last year, even more so than usual. 27 of his 46 HR allowed were to lefties. I think a big part of the problem was that he abandoned his change-up when pitching to lefties.
In 2010, Arroyo threw a change-up 27.2% of his pitches vs. LHH.
In 2011, he threw a change-up only 14.7% of his pitches vs. LHH.
In 2010, Arroyo threw his fastball 18.8% of the time vs. LHH.
In 2011, he threw the fastball 31.6% of the time vs. LHH.
It’s not going to be possible to wait until the regular season to see if Bronson has it or not. The details on the Francis contract were just released and he makes 1.25 million if he makes the roster out of Spring Training, otherwise he has an option built in to leave the team. Unless he really feels like getting paid minor league money until Bronson starts under handing gopher balls early in the season, Francis will most likely opt out and be a fifth starter elsewhere. I could be wrong on this, but I believe this signing might be to drive more competition for that fifth starter spot more than anything else.
@CharlotteReds: That is how it looks and makes perfect sense. The other factor is Leake has options. If Francis looks strong (and he is the only lefty in the rotation) as does Arroyo and Bailey, then Leake becomes expendable for a period time.
@rightsaidred:
Come on, man. Leake was the 2nd best starter we had last year. And he is expendable? In my mind, Leake would have to look very bad, AND all 3 of those guys look very good for him to be sent down. But we have seen teams value options over wins before, haven’t we?
@rightsaidred: But man, Leake going down is not necessarily in the best interest of the team. Odds are good he outpitches both Bronson and Francis. And am I correct in assuming that once Francis comes up the big club, there is no going down without his permission? I’d say pay the man his MLB money regardless to keep him down in AAA on call if that’s what it takes.
Could Francis be the long man and LeCure goes back to AAA? (Cueto, Latos, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey… Francis, Arrendondo, Marshall, Madson, Masset, Ondrusek… and Chapman starts in AAA). Francis can take Bailey or Arroyo’s spot if there is performance issues.
And I agree that the team probably can’t count on spring training to really assess Bronson. Too many variables: Quality of competition, his own timetable of working back into shape, IP limits, etc.
@Matt WI: Swap out Bray for Ondrusek above. Just missed him.
No, just add Bray. I only counted 11. No way Dusty only goes with 11. Except maybe the first week or 10 days, when they first need the 5th starter.
@jrob45601: Good point. That pitching staff works right? That could go. If the worst thing is that Aroldis looks so good you want to bring him up, that’s a good problem to have.
@Matt WI: And I mean bring up Aroldis after some fair assessment, not right out of spring.
I see no chance of Bronson being released. I think people will be shocked at how well he rebounds. I think Jeff was signed as an insurance policy if we like we did last year start the season with pitchers going on the DL. If come north with 5 healthy starters (Latos/Cueto/Bronson/Leake/Baily) then Francis walks and we go with what we have.
@Matt WI:
I see another problem with Chapman, particularly if he is pitching well. How do you leave him in Louisville, knowing he has an innings limit, “wasting” those inning in AAA? You can’t have him cut his starts short, or he will never get stretched out and learn to go deep into games. Skipping starts or pushing him back a day on occasion won’t help him adjust to pitching every fifth day. There is no way for the Reds to win at this point as far as handling him. The forfeited any chance of that the last 2 seasons (last more than the first, I kind of agree with how he was handled then).
I threw the idea out there yesterday of Francis starting in lieu of Arroyo, mostly as a joke because of the salary considerations, but the difference between the two last year was 3.9 WAR. That’s a huge difference. If Arroyo shows early that he’s hasn’t rebounded, I hope they are are aggressive on replacing him in the rotation when there might be viable options available. 30 starts is too many to waste.
@jrob45601: It’s a fair consideration. I personally find it hard to believe his going to be really ready to start every 5th day in the MLB. The lost innings toward his total may just have to be a bullet to bite from mismanaging him last season.
@Matt WI:
I’m with you on this. I don’t want him here if he is taxing the bullpen with 4 or 5 inning starts. But with the money they are paying him, along with whatever bump they get at the gates for having him in Cincy, I don’t see them keeping him in AAA if he is pitching well. Even if that means putting him back in the pen, regardless of what Jocketty has said.
Francis may indeed provide some competition, but as we know all too well, it’s not unlikely to have somebody hurt during Spring Training. He’s insurance. And he’s the kind of insurance that we should pay the premium on. I’d do what I could to keep him around, even if we could possibly get him to agree to a AAA assignment (if everyone’s healthy)and pay him his MLB salary.
If they don’t leave Chapman down in AAA for at least 2-3 months to allow to mature and work on being a SP then they might as well deal him and get something useful.
It’s not likely that there will be an injury in spring training, but there will surely be at least a minor injury at some point. I hope Francis stays with the Reds, even if he doesn’t make the team out of ST. He would provide important depth and an early injury would not force the Reds to rush Chapman up before he’s ready.
I just said this on the other thread, but however you get it done you need to figure out a way to keep Francis on the roster. This was an awesome bargain and IMO (provided he has his stuff back) he IS one of the 5 best starting pitchers on the team.
This kind of contract is very common. I think it’s unlikely that he makes the team out of ST, and that he’ll look around for somewhere else. If he doesn’t find it, he’ll stay in AAA and wait.
Same thing was true with Hermida last year, and he went to AAA.
The thing that scares me the most about this is that it gives them more excuses to put Chapman back in the pen.
I know all the critiques of Chapman, but his stuff is so good that he could be an average starter (better than Bailey and Arroyo) without doing anything different from last year. Look at his FIP, look at his projected FIP. They guy is special, that’s why the mismanagement is so frustrating!
What I would like to see them do, but they won’t, is to pair him up with a long reliever and have him go 4 IP at the beginning of the year. LeCure or whoever could go 3, and then be available one other time during the rotation.
Those 4 innings are likely to be better than any that our other bottom of the rotation starters can provide, and it would get him in shape to go longer while keeping his innings reasonable.
But it’s not traditional, so Dusty would never go for it.
@al: “What I would like to see them do, but they won’t, is to pair him up with a long reliever and have him go 4 IP at the beginning of the year. LeCure or whoever could go 3, and then be available one other time during the rotation.”
This sounds like it should work, and may in fact be the best way to handle the situation. Except for one glaring problem. Managing the pitching staff in this manner would almost certainly require going with an extra reliever (making 13 pitchers total). And we just don’t have enough versatility on the bench to do that. Maybe another manager, with another bench, could make something like this work. But I don’t think Dusty has it in him.
@jrob45601: I agree that the bench hurts the chances, and that our manager makes the chances of this happening 0.
that said, it wasn’t too long ago that carrying 12 pitchers WAS carrying an extra reliever. i’m not talking 1890, i’m talking 1990.
if your other starters are going 6 IP, in one time through the rotation you’re talking about needing 14 innings of relief work from 6 pitchers. 2.1 innings ever 5 days? that can hardly be considered too much, and that’s not counting the off-days, and the times you would skip chapman/lecure.
I’m actually okay living with Arroyo in the rotation for a month or so. He has earned a little slack based upon past performance. I say let Francis make the roster, and put another starter (whomever) in AAA just to hold onto Francis.
It’s clear Chapman will not be ready for the start of the season. I think the ideal solution is that Chapman is extended out in AAA and makes his debut as a major league starter in late May. Then, he will be good to go for the remainder of the season without worrying about innings limits as the playoffs approach.
You KNOW Dusty would leave Chapman in in the playoffs even if he was at 200 innings. He has done it plenty of times before. Don’t give him that option!!!
@jrob45601: What about 1.) Cueto 2.) Latos 3.) Leake 4.) Bailey 5.) Francis Long) Arroyo… I know, I know… LeCure found his calling as long and is very effective in that role, but I think there would be a few less blown 1st and 2nd inning starts if Arroyo wasn’t starting. With Volquez gone, there will be at least 5 less long relief opportunities next year. Arroyo is the only other pitcher that has a history of blowing up early a couple times a year. (I still have a headache from the 11 spot he gave the Jays in 2010.)
btw – I think it’s a waste of time to consider eating Arroyo’s contract. That is not going to happen.
For me it just comes down to who I think helps the team more, LeCure or Francis. When put like that…
I think this first comment here is possibly the best insight so far. Using Pitchf/x data and PitchType data from http://www.fangraphs.com, we can also note that he didn’t actually lose that much velocity on his fastball. He lost about 1mph in fact. Now, in all fairness what these numbers don’t tell us is how much late life he lost on his fastball. Hitters and catchers usually tell you that but for the most part. He definitely through the fastball a lot more in general last year in lieu of the changeup.
Overall numbers:
2010 – Fastball 39.5% (88mph average); Changeup 25% (80.6mph)
2011 – Fastball 46.2% his highest % since 2008 (87mph average); Changeup 17.6% (79mph)
@al: That’s exactly what I posted on here several times last September. They should have been piggy-backing his starts with LeCure or Willis to stretch him out. Last September was the perfect time to do that.
Also a waste of time to talk about Arroyo being demoted to the bullpen, as you suggested. I’m not saying that I wouldn’t make that move (or eat the contract, for that matter). But we have to work within what the team will see as options. Which means that as long as Arroyo has 2 arms, 2 legs and a head, he is gonna be sent out every 5th day to start the game.
@jrob45601: I agree. All I ask is that in the playoffs he not pitch. (And that if he’s really, really terrible they figure out how to disable him so they’re I guess saving face.)
All that said, I just don’t get all these posts from a few others about the great coming Arroyo rebound. Where does that come from? In the last 4 years before 2011, his FIPs range from 4.50 to 4.71, and his ERA+ from 93 to 110. He clearly outperformed his expectation, and even at that wasn’t great. He’s getting older, also. The best thing he does is pitch a lot of innings to avoid going to the bullpen. That still doesn’t explain this supposed coming rebound. If he puts up an ERA+ of 95 I’d be happy, and 100 I’d be thrilled. I’m not saying he won’t rebound from last year; I’d expect he’d be better than *that*. But this idea that he’ll be one of the Reds’ best starters seems quite unlikely.
First off I’ve not seen a calendar of significant MLB dates for this season; and, I don’t know How the new CBA may have changed things. However it is a safe bet that if Francis is on the MLB roster as of his opt out date then the Reds are on the hook for all or part of the MLB base salary in the contract ($1.24M I think a read).
So I am seeing this as Francis likely on the Reds team unless he pitches his way off in the spring. Maybe he is a starter or maybe he begins the year as a long man; but, I think he makes the team. Another option is that the Reds put him on their MLB roster then trade him for someone of value. I don’t see the Reds letting him walk on the 28th of March unless he has a terrible spring or is hurt.
I’d think that barring an injury to one of the projected starters, Francis probably makes the team as the long man which bumps LeCure back and sends (probably) Ondrusek off to the minors. There could also be a trade involving bullpen types as the Reds are a little long there right now.
@OhioJim: You might be right, but is there any reason Francis *should* bump Lecure? I mean, I’m all for having Francis in the minors as insurance, but considering he isn’t going to take Arroyo’s place, why do we want a guy who is almost sure to be below league average to take a somewhat promising guy like Lecure’s spot?
We can cite all the FIP numbers, BABIP numbers we want, but Francis hasn’t had an ERA+ better than average since 2007. On the other hand, Lecure was 106 in ERA+ last year (and was right on his FIP, it wasn’t luck) and is 3 years younger. The projections I am looking at seem to be close to the same for Lecure and Francis, so I’m not quite sure why I’m keeping a guy who’s going to cost a lot more. I don’t know what the incentives look like, but his base is something like 1.5M, and the incentives make it up to 3.5 I think. He could probably be not that good and reach 2M. Lecure makes 440K, right?
@jrob45601:
Would be interesting if they choose to go with 6 starters at some point in the season. 1)Chapman started in Cuba on a 6-man rotation. 2)They have a lot of young arms – Cueto, Latos, Leake and Bailey – and none of those guys have eclipsed 200IP in MLB yet in their careers. 3) Playoffs – if we want to go deep this year, we cant have 3/4 of those guys mentioned above hitting 200IP for the first time while the playoffs roll around and expect them to be fresh and mentally ready for the most difficult games.
Obviously, a lot of other factors make a 6-man rotation difficult. I won’t even go into listing them. But there are some potential benefits…
Cardinals sign Beltran, now trying to ink Oswalt. Some may argue that the Reds can find Oswalt’s 2012 production on the current roster, but it seems that teams like the Cards that target more known commodities on the open market, seem to be playing later in the calendar year than teams like the Reds that are consistently relying on striking gold for copper prices.
@secondguessingfanbase: What would the Reds do with Oswalt?
He’d be a great value add if they replaced Arroyo with him, but we know that ain’t happening. I wouldn’t pay 8M to replace Bailey (or Leake) with him, as the Reds already have Chapman presumably in AAA for that purpose.
It sucks if the Cards get him, but the Reds can’t stop the Cards from getting every player.
@teddyoh: why is it clear chapman won’t be ready in spring training? also, how does him pitching in AAA preserve him for later in the season?
i really don’t get the francis love, and i think people are getting way too carried away with the implications of this signing.
again, this type of contract happens all the time. that they will pay him more if he makes the roster has no implication for him making the roster, it’s not writing on the wall, or some secret conspiracy.
it’s an insurance plan. if someone breaks down in ST, now we have semi-legitimate depth in a guy who’s probably better than the AAA starter we would have brought up. if not, it’s a way for francis to market himself to other teams that may have an injury. win-win.
if there are no other offers, maybe he goes to AAA because he likes the reds and has a contract with them already etc.
this is the rotation: cueto, latos, leake, arroyo, bailey, and it has been since the latos trade. signing francis? does not change this.
@secondguessingfanbase: you could maybe say that the reds were trying to strike gold for copper prices (?) last year, but how can you whine about this year’s offseason?
let’s see, the cards lost pujols and gained beltran. downgrade. they may get oswalt, who may be hurt or may be effective. probably an upgrade, but marginal. they get wainright back, but first year after TJ? probably not going to be great. i think they are a worse team than they were last year.
the reds have added a legit #2 and two very good relievers to a bad pitching staff, and haven’t lost a single 2011 contributor. major upgrade.
so what’s the problem again?
The problem is that we finished 17 games behind the Cardinals last year!
You may be right in all your analysis, but let’s keep in mind that, based on last year, we have a LOT of ground to make up.
Oops, sorry, 11 games behind the Cardinals. (I was looking at Milwaukee’s record before.)
My point is the same though. 11 games is a lot to make up in one year.
@Dan: That’s only sort of true. The Reds underperformed their Pythagorean record by four games, while the Cards overperformed by one. Thus, it’s really only about 6 games to make up. And yes, Pythagorean records do a better job of predicting future records than the actual records do.
Jason, got any links off the top of your head to support the Pythag theory? Not trying to cause a ruckus, I’ve heard both sides of the story. That it is accurate, that it is not.
@RedLeg75: Yes, good question. I spent some time last year trying to find anything that cited pthyag’s correlation coeffecient to actual records, or it’s margin of error, never found anything solid. Perhaps behind subscriptions or something. Google is only so powerful :). I like the idea of Pythag, just want a better understanding of its power.
In either case, I don’t think it’s realistic to say the Reds start the season 11 games behind the Cards because of what happened last season. I mean, last year did the Cards really get that much better than the team that lost to the Reds the year before? No, they lost Wainright in the process for crying out loud. There’s way too much static out there to make too much out of one season’s record to another. I always cringed when Dusty was trying to make bones about improving in wins from one season to another when they were still finishing below .500 each season. At least with the Reds over the last two years the roster was pretty consistent, so there’s that.
@Dan: I don’t understand what your point is beyond the idea that the Cards should be favored to win the Central. Maybe they should, maybe they shouldn’t—I can see it either way. With Oswalt, I think that pushes it to the Cardinals preseason. I’ve been cautioning people here, which is almost everyone, who seem to make final October 1 predictions after each single move, that the offseason isn’t over!!! As if the Cards were going to lose Pujols and make no other moves? Of course not! They signed Beltran and will sign Oswalt—why should we have thought differently?
That said, I don’t understand the point of the previous criticism, as if the Reds could somehow stop the Cards from signing Oswalt? The Cards have a larger payroll. If the Reds wanted to expand their payroll to sign Beltran, that’d be one thing, but expanding it to sign Oswalt would be really dumb unless they released Arroyo.
@al: Chapman has been pitching as a reliever since the Reds acquired him. The plan was to let him pitch Winter Ball and extend his innings out to become a starter. You can’t just suddenly go from pitching 1 or 2 innings to 6. Unfortunately, he developed shoulder stiffness, and was shut down. Thus, not only is he not ready to begin Spring Training as a starter, but he is not ready to even pitch!
He will slowly build his strength and endurance, and WILL NOT be ready to be a starter by Opening Day. I hope to God the Reds stay committed to their plan to develop him as a starter. Thus, he remains in AAA.
It is a well known fact that pitching in the minors is less stressful on a pitcher’s arm than the majors. I didn’t make this up. Innings in the minors are not equivalent to innings in the majors. Do they count? Sure, but not to the same degree. Thus, a later debut in the major league rotation will prolong his usefulness to the team in 2012.
@teddyoh: i don’t know that that’s a well known fact at all. can you cite a non-verducci article claiming that? i know he says that all the time, but his work has been thoroughly debunked as was discussed here not long ago.
let me see if i understand the theory. a pitcher knows that it’s the minor leagues, and so he, presumably subconsciously, exerts less effort inning to inning during his audition to make it to the majors and earn money and stardom.
that sounds a little bogus to me. and seeing as how predicting injuries is a pretty tough thing to to anyway, i have a hard time seeing how that could possibly be a “well known fact.”
@al: A shockingly simpler idea would be to pitch the guy fewer innings.
It’s probably a well known fact that if Chapman pitched 6 innings to me every 5th day it would be less stressful on his arm, but I can’t see how it could be less stressful to pitch in AAA. Do teams really have innings limits for their pitchers and then give the pitchers a discount for AAA innings?
@Dave Lowenthal: On Francis “bumping” LeCure back further into the game…
“Bumping” was a poor choice of words on my part. Actually I think LeCure should be moved into the position of being the first man out of the pen when the Reds are trying to hold a lead unless the starter has taken them to Marshal or Madson(I guess nominally I see LeCure “the 7th inning man”).
Based on what transpired last year, I certainly want LeCure getting the ball ahead of Masset, Arredondo, or Ondrusek (if he still is around); and, like it or not Bray looks like the lefty versus lefty specialist.
I also think Francis’ experience means he brings some things to the table as the long man which they don’t necessarily get with LeCure. Most notably, I think having him in the long role would make it easier for them skip somebody in the rotation with less likelihood of messing up the other starting guys or the bullpen by spot starting him. In the same role he would also make it easier to give an extra day’s to the entire rotation by just dropping him in for a start during a long run of consecutive games. Plus of course some managers might actually spot him against a team loaded with left handed hitters to protect a rotation pitcher who gets eaten alinve by LH hitting.
My criticism is with how the Reds view building a winner. Beltran helps them win in 2012 more than anyone they acquired this offseason, so what do they do? They sign and trade for everyone but him. Oswalt is getting up there, but I don’t doubt that he has something left in the tank and whatever it is, Dave Duncan will channel it. The Cardinals have a better feel for how their roster will look in August than the Reds do, and the last few seasons have really proven that.
The Reds would be better off doing what the Cards did, and fill their gaping OF slot with a great offensive player that can’t defend. That would be a nice way to maximize Votto’s value at the plate. Waiting on Jay Bruce and bringing in Gomes/Ludwick/Nix doesn’t help your MVP.
@RedLeg75: Here you go: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3490
If I read one more post about how the Cardinals have Carlos Beltran… A 35 year old Beltran does not replace Pujols. Not even close.
And David Duncan is taking the year off. Doubtful he is helpful in any regard to Oswalt.
Bronson is Bronson. He is 35 and is signed for 2 more seasons including this one. He is owed over 23 mil and will be in the rotation regardless this year. With that said he is a .500 pitcher with a carear 4.28 era and allows 9.2 hits per 9 with a 1.136 whip. He should be the number 5 starter since we are stuck with him. Its time for Homer to step up or catch the bus to somewhere else.
I do believe this is the year that Homer does step up. He has taken fitness serious this off season for the first time. And with the bullpen, no starter should think they have to win it themselves, just give it all they have and turn it over, just like 1990
@gsm45: Just an aside, you inverted his WHIP, which is 1.316. Also, he was barely over his career WHIP last year and managed to be about the worst pitcher in the NL.
This is just so wrong I can’t stand it.
The Reds had the 7th best offense (2nd in NL), scoring 27 runs less than the Cardinals, but were 22nd in starting pitching (14th in NL), allowing 58 more ER than the Cardinals and 64 ER less than the Brewers.
It is willfully ignorant of these facts to think that helping the offense would provide the greatest marginal return. Clearly the area of the team that will provide the greatest return on investment for the 2012 Reds is starting pitching.
Latos has put up a 4 win season and a 3.2 win season in his last two years. He’s young, and entering his prime, so he figures to get better if he’s like most players. He replaces the bottom of our rotation, who put up a combined -.1WAR last year. So that’s a difference of 3+ wins with upside, for $500k in salary space.
Beltran had a great year for a player his age, and put up 4.7 WAR. If he’s like most humans, he’ll decline, and will put up less than that this year. He would have replaced Heisey, who in his last 534 PA (about a full season) has put up 3.2 WAR. You are talking about the difference of about 1 win. For $12mil.
It is so obvious that Latos was a better addition than Beltran would have been, it feels like this must be a prank.
@al: He’ll come back with the nonsense about how the Reds got shut out or held down so many times, even though there’s zero evidence that they were any different than any other offense in that sense.
Clearly Latos was a better addition than Beltran would have been, and a second-best addition would have been getting another Latos if that were possible. Considering that wasn’t going to happen, I do think there’s an argument that Beltran would have been a better addition than Marshall or Madson, for the regular season at least. The latter two are bullpen pitchers. Obviously, it requires Beltran staying healthy, and it also would recognize the fact that Heisey is a reasonable candidate to decline also. If Heisey puts up last year’s numbers in 450 PAs, this won’t be true.
I definitely would have rather have had Beltran than Marshall and Cordero. That they have Marshall and Madson makes things pretty palatable.