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The Reds addressed their need for starting pitching depth tonight, as John Heyman reports that the Reds have signed starting pitcher Jeff Francis to a minor league deal. Zack Links at MLBTR provides some basic info about Francis’ 2011 season.
Francis spent 2011 with the Royals, posting a 4.82 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 across 31 starts. His 183 innings of work was his highest total since 2007, the season before he suffered a shoulder injury which required surgery and caused him to miss the entire 2009 campaign.
The 31-year-old Francis pitched six years for the Colorado Rockies. His best season was 2007 when he finished ninth in the NL Cy Young balloting. The last two years his FIP was substantially below his ERA. Bill James projects Francis for an ERA of 4.22 and FIP of 4.02 this year. His FIP last year was actually lower than his 2007 season.
Nothing but upside with this signing. Starting pitcher depth has been a concern after they traded Travis Wood for Sean Marshall. Francis was healthy enough to pitch 183 innings last year.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-post-injury-jeff-francis-and-dips/
Here’s more than you might’ve wanted to know about Jeff Francis. Good hire from where i sit. Couldn’t hurt.
Good signing.
I’m glad it’s a minor league deal. We needed SP depth. On a related note, did D-Train ever sign with anybody? I actually wouldn’t mind re-signing him to a minor league deal for for some added depth for cheap and good post-September bullpen depth.
Great job Walt!! This takes a bit of the sting out of the Marshall trade. You have to realistically assume Francis will get maybe 10 starts. There aren’t many guys out there who will give you those kinds of numbers for the league minimum.
Good job, Reds. Let’s go play some ball now!
@RiverCity Redleg: I concur. I’d take D-Train back on a minor league deal. Heck, with his bat, he makes for a more intriguing long man than LeCure. Like having an extra pinch hitter every game.
Willis signed with Philly and will be pitching out the bullpen. As for Francis, we all know that everyone not named Arroyo who is tentatively in the rotation may very well miss some time this year. So, this is a great pick up. He can eat innings and has a relatively high groundball/flyball ratio. His health issues were with his shoulder, so it is unlikely that he regains low 90s velocity. However, he may also be one of those guys who learns to pitch effectively with less than great velocity. In some respects, he seems like a groundball-prone version of Arroyo.
Can’t we just give Arroyo’s starts to Francis from the get-go? Francis had 3.9 more WAR than Arroyo last year. I will now do an eye roll because I’m sure won’t happen.
I don’t think I’d go handing Arroyo’s 200 IP to Francis just yet. Arroyo had a bad year, but I’ll take a guy who averages 14 wins and 200 IP who had a bad year over a guy with a bad shoulder every day of the week. I believe Bronson will rebound. Francis, however, will be prove to be a smart pickup, too. The Reds are better with Francis and Marshall than they were with Wood.
A guy like Francis on a minor league deal is an awesome pick up. If he pitches up to capability he should head North (East?) with the team. One more reason to be excited about the upcoming season.
Word is Bronson is doing considerably more off season work then in the past to strength his legs and upperbody to be ready for this season. I think that and his determination of rebounding off of a bad season last year will result in Bronson not only rebounding to have a much better year, but by seasons end will have the numbers that put him as one of the top two pitchers on this roster as the Reds head into the playoffs.
I was hopeful the rumor about them talking was true when I first saw it about a week ago. I really like Francis and am a bit surprised he comes with a minor league deal.
Great job!
Great post.
Love the signing, but it begs the question of who gets bumped from the rotation if he wins a job in spring training. Latos, Cueto, of course, and Arroyo is in because the Reds can’t get rid of his contract, no? And I agree with the previous post that he is due to have a rebound of some proportion after that horrid 2011……I would also think Leake has earned a spot. If so, that would leave Homer and Francis vying for the final two spots in the rotation? ………. And if Chapman is ready a few months into the season, the picture gets a little more crowded!……
@vegastypo: I think you answered the question yourself. The #5 spot is Bailey/Chapman’s to lose. I don’t think there is even a way that Francis could pitch well enough to wrestle the job away from them so long as one of them pitches strikes. Results are pretty much meaningless in spring training games.
He’s pretty much organizational depth in case injury happens.
I like the enthusiasm, but I worry a bit that even at his best, Bronson being one of top two means Cueto and Latos aren’t holding up their end of the bargin. I’d settle for Arroyo performing as an above average four man.
This.
You just have to look at last year when we had TWO pitchers break camp already injured and missed several starts. This was much needed depth and if everyone is healthy, he’s on a minor league league deal, so he can start in Louisville w/ no problem. I don’t know how they got him on a minor league deal, but I’ll take it. Btw, did any one else notice that one of his comparables in baseball references was Josh Fogg? That’s got to be a good sign. Right?
@RiverCity Redleg: It’s too bad Fogg didn’t stick. The Reds could have had a whole schtick about the Fogg and the Stormy.
Francis was #4 starter in the AL last season. He gave up a lot of hits and didn’t strike out many. He’d be servicable at the back end of the rotation.
Player W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Francis, J 6 16 4.82 31 183.0 224 102 98 19 39 91 1.44 5.03
I couldn’t have said it better. My thoughts exactly. Bronson may not be 2010 Bronson, but he’ll be quite a bit better than 2011 Bronson… Francis will play a key role, perhaps getting 5-10 starts.
I don’t see anyway Chapman is on the Reds roster when they come north. He needs to spend at least 2-3 months in AAA learning a third pitch and working on pitching more then 2-3 innings. I think people who feel he is involved with the Reds coming north are just kidding themselves.
I think this move guarantees two things. First off as already suggested, no way Chapman makes the MLB club as a starter; and, Francis is probably well ahead of Chapman as the “next man up” for the rotation.
Secondly this could set the table for a trade of one of the five presumptive rotation guys with Francis to step in.
@Sultan of Swaff: Yeah, I’ll take Lecure. He might not hit, but he’s a much better pitcher. He might actually start a few games here and there, too.
@dn4192: Always a Bronson man, you are, as you say.
If Arroyo is one of the top two pitchers at the end of the year, this team isn’t making the playoffs.
@dn4192: Moreover, if the Reds make the playoffs and Arroyo starts a game I will pull every last hair out of my head. The whole purpose of the moves made in the offseason is to avoid this very situation (barring injuries, of course).
In the playoffs you don’t put whiffleball pitchers in the game. The Reds can stick Latos, Cueto, Chapman, Leake, Bailey, in games, not lollipop pitchers. In the postseason you want guys that will go full bore and strike guys out, as long and hard as they can, and then take them out and put the new and improved strikeout pitchers in the pen in. Arroyo should play the Barry Zito (TM) role on the 2012 postseason Reds.
“Barry Zito role”……me like.
“Although the Reds have discussed the possibility of using Aroldis Chapman as a starter, the addition of Francis could give manager Dusty Baker the leeway to keep Chapman in the bullpen.”
- Jerry Crasnick
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7507892/jeff-francis-cincinnati-reds-agree-minor-league-deal-source-says
@John:
Crasnick’s article ought to read “The addition of Francis gives the Reds a LH starting pitcher option so that Chapman can be left at AAA to continue to develop as a starter until he is ready to bring up. With a deep bullpen that includes two quality lefties in Bray and Marshall, there is no need to bring back Chapman in a relief role.”
For whatever reason, the Reds’ patience with Chapman seems to be running thin. But then, making a pennant run with a 105.1 mph weapon in your pen is a luxury no other team really has. My thoughts here are that Francis is here for those only two reasons: Chapman to stay at AAA to develop or to move him back to the pen. Either way, i feel like the Reds’ will be trading Aroldis Chapman sooner rather than later. Call him the next Koufax or Randy Johnson or whatever. I’ll call him a centerpiece to a blockbuster deal to a team whose willing to make him start for a year or two in AAA rather than force him into a pen role. Just my 2 cents
@hermanbates:
Maybe you have it backwards, and this is a sign that they are going to show more patience with Chapman. By signing Francis, they have someone they can put into the rotation when needed, instead of bringing Chapman in as a starter before he is ready. This way, they can afford to leave him in AAA to adjust to being a starter and build up his arm.
@jrob45601: That’s the way I take it as well. Or at least, that’s the way I hope they are looking at this. I wouldn’t mind Chapman being in the bullpen after September if everyone is healthy, just for the pennant run. But, if he even sniffs the pen before that, I will explode.
The jokes practically write themselves, don’t they?
Given the details of the Francis deal, it appears that he will use spring training as an audition with the Reds and other teams. It now seems unlikely this guy is going to be an insurance policy who starts in AAA. That said, I still have a couple of questions. Can he can opt out even if the team intends heading north with him? . . . Also, who gets left out if he makes the rotation? . . . I am assuming it will be Homer.
Just saw the details on the Francis. He has an opt-out clause for March 28. Which means if he has a decent spring and doesn’t make the club, he will probably choose to leave. Still good to have him as insurance in case he is needed for opening day roster.
We were typing at the same time it appears. I’m guessing there is no way he would opt out if the team intends to take him north. Also guessing that he has no chance of making the club without an injury to one of the starters. I just can’t see them exposing Bailey to waivers, or demoting Leake. And those are really the only 2 options they would even consider (unfortunately).
I think you are spot-on here. I was hoping he would be at AAA as an insurance policy. This is still a great move, just not as great as I was hoping.
I just absolutely love this signing. I hope he makes the team out of Spring Training. That would suck in a way because I actually think Leake is better, but you really will want to keep Francis somehow if he has returned to his pre-injury form. You can’t expose Homer or he’ll be pitching for the unfriendlies.
Check this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-post-injury-jeff-francis-and-dips/
There is a chance (I said a chance) that instead of saying Latos, Marshall, Madson pitching upgrades we add Francis’ name to that list as well. This could be that big of a deal. 6th in Rookie of the Year voting in 2005. 9th in Cy Young voting in 2007. Do we have anyone on the roster with that resume’. Latos? Maybe??
@RiverCity Redleg: You may want to get ready to explode then. The Reds were able to outbid the big boys because the Reds saw Chapman as a starter while some of the big money teams saw him more as a reliever with closer potential. They were very concerned about his development of a 3rd pitch. Cashman pretty much said as much about Chapman.
The Reds are going to use Chapman in any capacity they feel he can help this team win this year. I fear that his development as a starter may well be hampered if they use him in the pen but I think they will if they feel that’s where he helps them in 2012.
All that said, Walt has said over and over that Chapman is starting this year. It’s going to be very interesting to see how this works out. I’m hoping you don’t have to explode. We like ya around here
I think starting Chapman at Louisville as a starter helps the Reds this year more than if you start him in the pen (provided he starts in GABP by July).
1/2 a season from Chapman as a starter = +/- 80 innings.
a full season from Chapman as a reliever = +/- 60 innings.
I’ll take Chapman for 80 please.
@TC: Good point TC