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Red Reporter has an excellent chart detailing the Reds’ current 2012 payroll. They currently have the team at $79.8M. I won’t try to improve on that except to say we have now learned that Madson is being paid only $6M in 2012 with a team option or $2.5M buyout for 2013 (thus the initial $8.5M that was reported).
That gives us a number of $77.3M
At the end of last season, the Jocketty said payroll would go up. The assumed number was $85M.
Do the Reds still have $8M lying around? If so, what should they do with it? As it stands, right now, the Reds roster is nearly set:
Starting Lineup: Mesoraco, Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Cozart, Heisey*, Stubbs, Bruce
Rotation: Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman?
Bullpen: Madson, Marshall, Masset, Bray, Ondrusek, Arrendondo, LeCure
Bench: Cairo, Frazier, Francisco, Hanigan, Janish
That’s actually 26 players. Janish might hang out in Louisville and Chapman might log some time there as well, but that’s a pretty set roster. We all know there is a perceived need for a better backup at short and for another OF, but is that really what the Reds should so with their money?
The Reds have made it extremely clear that they are all in for this year, and I am totally happy with that mindset. But frankly, I’m at a loss here. The only week cog on the bench is Janish (Cairo will turn to dust eventually, but he’s going to be on the team). The lineup is what it is, and there’s nothing better than Heisey out there for left. The bullpen might be the best in the league now. I’m not thrilled with Arroyo on the back end, but that rotation is pretty solid.
So I’m putting the question to you Nation. What should the Reds do? Should they spend what’s left on a couple of role players, as seems to be the plan right now? Should they maybe make a run at Oswalt and try to further sure up the rotation? Is there a trade you think could get done if the Reds are willing to take on some money? These are fun questions to ask, and no doubt Jocketty will provide us with answers in the coming days. Either way, this offseason has been a blast. I’m intrigued to see where else it takes us.
Maybe I am crazy but I would like to see us go after a guy like Damon to play the outfield. I think he could split time with Heisey and give us another good guy off the bench. So I would like to see the Reds do something like that. I also like the idea of Oswalt for some more stability at the Major League level. I do not think Chapman is ready to start at the MLB level….Would love to hear what everyone else has to say! Cant wait for the season to start!!!!!
One of the SP will be in AAA (probably Chapman), and then you’re at 25-man roster. However, there’s no depth there. Injuries will happen, and Walt made it a point in the 2010 season to have extra hands on deck when necessary.
I would guess that some of that money stays in the back pocket for a potential July 31 deal. The rest will go to an OF bat with Frazier likely starting the year in AAA. Either a bounceback candidate like JD Drew, or an OBP player like Fukudome.
I doubt Walt would go after Oswalt w/o a corresponding trade because there just isn’t room in the rotation for additional starters. Could they a move like the Cubs did with Zambrano and eat a chunk of Arroyo’s contract in a trade? Although I think there’s a better than average chance for Arroyo to have a better season than 2011. Leake and Chapman are the only one with options (or if Cueto/Latos have options, there’s no way they been considered for AAA.)
@Redsfan7: Damon has played very little OF the past two seasons. I don’t think he’d be a fit.
@Redsfan7: I wouldn’t mind Damon. He good be pretty good in a platoon, and I dont’ know what else you spend that money on. I still think you might be able to trade Bailey straight up for a BJ Upton or something close. We’re clearly not settled on Heisey being the LF of the future.
I think if we’re going to upgrade in LF, this type of deal is the only way to do it. I don’t know if want to trade from our thin SP depth (unless someone wanted Arroyo), but a trade for someone like Upton is the way to go.
I don’t have a problem with that roster and saving the money for a mid-season pickup. I’m not really excited about any of the names mentioned (Ankiel, Ludwick, Fukedome, Theriot, etc…) but maybe that is just me.
I forgot about Fukudome, I think he would be a good platoon player also. I would rather have Fukudome over JD Drew…just my opinion. I just know this is going to be a fun year!
OK, this one is not too conventional. However, how about trading for Shin-Soo Choo? . . . I’m not sure what it would take to land him. However, he is affordable, was injured in ’11 (driving his value down from the 6.5 WAR he posted in ’10). Also, though he is a LHB, he has the same crazy reverse platoon split that Heisey has (though Choo has fewer ABs as a LHB against a LHP).
@Greg Dafler: I also like the idea of saving some of that money and going after a big name of someone that can help us mid year. You just never know with injuries. I love Scott Rolen but we have no real back up plan at 3rd. That kind of scares me.
@Greg Dafler: Yes, save it for a rainy day given the lack of other obvious and feasible uses.
@Drew Mac: I would Choo, but I have no idea how that could happen
@Redsfan7: Francisco, Frazier, and Cairo can all play 3rd.
Rather than throwing good money at bad backup players out of fear, why don’t we be proactive like the Rays and lock up some of our core pieces to team friendly deals? Spend a little now to save a lot later. Latos, Leake, Mesoraco.
Remember, part of the reason we have money to spend is because we won’t be sweating huge arbitration raises for Cueto and Bruce.
Of those three, the only one I’d be willing to extend would be Latos. Mesoraco has proven nothing at the big league level yet, and I’d want one more (or at least 1/2 more) good numbers out of Leake before considering it.
@Jason Linden: Maybe it is just a personal thing but I do not like to see Francisco at 3rd, and yes Cairo has done ok but can he keep it up? I think Frazier is a viable option but just needs some MLB experience. We do have some options but I would like to see a proven guy IF Rolen would happen to get hurt…..What about Austin Kearns for another OF’er? Think he could have a bounce back year with the Reds again? Just a thought.
gettting a lead off/LF platoon like Damon would be incredible and even though he has to roll the ball to the infield, in our yard, it’s not quite a big a problem. Having him play half-2/3 the time with Heisy covering the rest would allow Phillips to hit 2nd and make for a nasty line up with speed and power through out. Francisco is going to be fine and he made strides on his D last year- very good pop. I love what Walt’s done and that lead off/LF piece would finish off and amazing off season.
Why not take a minor league flyer on Dmitri Young? If he can still hit, wouldn’t he be a capable backup LF/1B?
@Sultan of Swaff: i’d be down for signing latos and leake for sure.
mesoraco needs to put up at least a few months of major league numbers before i would guarantee him money for a lot of years.
the other guy i would at least think of is drew stubbs. controversial, i know. but in 3 seasons he’s put up 3.4 WAR/150games, and he’s got to be at a low point right now. you could probably get him for 4 years and $16mil? maybe?
it would be a nice raise for him, and if he even bounces back a little, it could be a massive bargain for the reds. A 4WAR centerfielder (2010 stubbs) for $4mil/yr is a great deal.
I agree on all counts.
Just joined the site after reading for a long time. Getting excited for the season and wanted to chime in. A few names for LF I don’t hear mentioned that seem to fit through trade are marlon byrd and alfonso soriano from the cubs. Based on the cubs rebuilding and the talk that the cubs will eat 80% of soriano’s salary making it only $3-4M per for 3 yrs. Or Byrd on 1 yr at $6.5M (Maybe they will eat some of that as well). Seems like byrd especially would be a good fit. Not sure what it would take to get him, but seems like a good fit. Any thoughts?
@Jason Linden: Not to mention Janish and Valaika are both more than capable in the hot corner.
Personally, I would rather them sit on the money for mid-season and/or apply it towards extending Votto. But, if we do sign an aging OF, a la Drew, Damon or Fukudome, I would rather they parted ways with Cairo before they sent Frazier down.
This might sound crazy, but what about Manny Ramirez? He just expressed his interest to get back into baseball, and if the guy’s got something left in the tank he could certainly pan out at the homerun friendly GAPB. He’s just what the Reds have been looking for the past few years: a right handed, power hitting left fielder. I would think that he would come at a low cost, and there would be no harm in inviting him to spring training to see what he can do. He doesn”t have to play every day with Heisey around, and I feel like he’s got more potential upside than a Johnny Damon.
He also wouldn’t play at all until June. 50 game suspension still stands.
The outfield folks supposedly available being “not better than Heisey” doesn’t mean Heisey is good enough for LF on a legitimate contender.
So far this this season Jocketty has made out of the box/ unexpected decisions. Only time will tell if they were right and will work out; but, I say why stop now. Stay out the box and deal for a LF that is better than Heisey. There is excess depth in the bullpen now. There is Heisey himself. Frazier or Francisco could be moved. There are probably guys we are only vaguely aware in the mid farm system that other teams would value or at least take in the right deal. If we are all in let’s be really all in.
i guess i just don’t really know what you’re talking about. i think people have this idea that every “legitimate contender” has all-stars at every position, but it’s just not true.
here are some LF OPSs from last year’s contending teams:
Mil: .973
Stl: .959
Tex: .771
Atl: .735
NYY: .730
Bos: .723
Tam: .720
Ari: .717
Phil: .714
Det: .714
ok, so heisey isn’t ryan braun or matt holiday. but he did put up an .800+ OPS. even if you don’t believe that he can do that over a full season, what evidence do you have that says it’ll be less than .750?
so why is it exactly that all these “legit contenders” seem to be able to contend without an all-star level of offense in left, but the reds simply can’t?
Solid post!
i can understand getting another outfielder. with phipps as the 5th outfielder, that’s pretty thin. i don’t have much of a preference between the aging vets that have been mentioned, and i’d guess it will be ludwick. i hope whoever it is, they sign for $1-$1.5mil.
i see no reason to try to get another infielder, that seems like a waste of cash. cairo is already sort of a waste of cash, and getting someone else is just going to further jam the logs.
@GoMrRedLegs: I was wondering when someone was going to mention Manny Ramirez…No thanks. I’d rather have Fukudome or Damon for a little more money. I doubt it would even be THAT much more money. I just would not trust Manny with a glove. If that’s why we had to trade Alonso, then why bring in an equally bad liability in the field? Plus who knows if the guy can even play anymore.
@OhioJim: Heisey was a hot name at the trade deadline last year. Maybe it wouldn’t be inconceivable for us to package him with a relievver or even Bailey for one more big deal. The only problem is, the way we’ve been kicking tires on LF’ers all offseason, we’re not exactly upping his price. We really should have traded him last summer. But if you package him with Bailey you might just be able to do something special. Though we’d be getting REALLY thin at SP at that point…would pretty much be betting the farm on Chapman working out from day one.
@GoMrRedLegs: manny has also lost almost all of his power the last few years. that plus the 50 game suspension means he doesn’t have a whole lot of value.
i could see a team picking him up hoping he can provide a boost down the stretch, but i doubt that would be us.
@al: Thank you, al, for providing some facts. There seems to be so much emotion about Heisey (mostly unfounded from my perspective) It’s like people are assuming he is going to hit like Janish. I think there is reason to believe he will hit close to or better than he has shown so far. That should be just fine. When you add the good D, it seems like we are going to be just fine in Left. All the options I’ve heard talked about don’t excite me and I think a reasonable option (as good or better than what I’ve heard so far) will still be available IF or when it becomes necessary.
Here is a thought, put Heisey in LF and let him play everyday and see what happens. I mean we won in 2010 with Gomes in LF and I got to believe Chris can overall out perform what Johnny did that year.
Excellent point, @dn4192. I’m not convinced Heisey is the answer to the every day left field question and no matter what you do, you still need another outfielder, but this quote plus @al‘s post help put things in perspective for me.
BJ Upton would be the icing to a great offseason. I’d say it is too much to dream for, but then again Madson is in the stable, isn’t he?
The bench as currently constructed is pretty bad.
Cairo, Frazier, Francisco, Hanigan, Janish.
That’s only one left-handed pinch hitter, and no legitimate outfielders. Yikes.
They don’t seem to think that Frazier can hack it at SS, even in an emergency capacity, so if they bring in a 4th outfielder, Frazier probably goes.
Cairo, OF, Francisco, Hanigan, Janish.
Still pretty bad. It would be better if we let go of Cairo. If the OF we got was left handed, we could have:
Frazier, LH OF, Franciso, Hanigan, Janish. I could live with that I think. Frazier has pop, we’d have two lefties off the bench, and all the defensive positions would be pretty well covered.
@dn4192: You know, I’ve started thinking that myself lately. I still think we need someone for depth (I don’t like the idea of Frazier being our only option if Heisey can’t pull his weight), but given the names that are out there, I’d be fine bringing in a bench-type player for insurance and seeing what Heisey can do with a full ST’s worth of work. The knock on him last year was that he never seemed to play well when he was given an extended shot, maybe he puts it together this year. It will only be his second full season in the bigs. Maybe he blows up and consistently hits with power like he did in his short stints last year. I wouldn’t be ENTIRE shocked to see him push 30 HR’s if he gets the playing time and everything clicks for him. I said I wouldn’t be SHOCKED. I didn’t say I think that’ll happen. If he could hit .260 towards the bottom of the lineup with some plus power? I dont’ think anyone here would be that upset. And if he flounders, make a trade during the season. Still doesn’t answer the question of what we’re doing with the extra salary money, though.
“The knock on him (Heisey) last year was that he never seemed to play well when he was given an extended shot…”
Can anyone come up with the most starts he has had in any month in the major leagues the last 2 years? Cause it sure doesn’t seem like it would fit the description of “extended.” I know this has been said for a while, but 8-10 starts over a couple of weeks really isn’t much of a look.
@jrob45601: It might not be that fair, but it’s what seemed to happen. He got a couple chances last year to play 5-6 games straight and he just never showed up. Then you’d sit him on the bench for a week, give him a start or a pinch hit, and he’d knock the cover off the ball almost on cue. Maybe it was just an adjustment thing.
@eric nyc:
I think he may be pressing when he gets a couple starts in a row. He has to see and hear all this talk about him just being a good pinch hitter, and he has been burried on the bench for the most part since he came up. Maybe “this is my chance, I have to hit well” gets in his head. Last year Baker came out in spring training and said “Gomes is my guy.” Maybe if he did the same for Heisey, it would allow him to relax and just play.
Yeah, worked wonders for Gomes last year…
I knew this would come up, and there isn’t a good response for that. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
My point was more that Gomes had done next to nothing over his entire career to deserve being made an everyday player.
I can’t find it broken down by starts, but the most at-bats Heisey has had in any calendar month in the majors is 64, last July. That is a very small sample size. For the entire season, he had 279 ABs. Most people would say that is too small of a sample to really get a feel for his ability.
@al: How many of these teams also had offensive ??? at C and SS and 3B and got 200+ K’s out of their CF?
Where does the production that Hernandez brought come from in 2012? Based on his first month of MLB exposure , it is a reach to pencil it in from Meso for this year. Eventually yes for Meso and probably more but not likely this year. And we saw all of a dozen game (give or take) sample from Cozart. Add in that we they will be lucky to get 120 games out of Rolen.
It is fools’ gold for a team throwing all in to presume that somehow 2 rookies and a first time starter across 3 positions are going to come through enough to win a division (and hopefully beyond). Then throw Rolen in as part timer and it is a prescription for disaster. They need a reliable big time bat for LF for all these reasons.
I don’t understand why people are bothered by Frazier in the OF. From what I’ve read, LF is his best position and he’s passable in RF. If Stubbs needs a day, slide Heisey over. I think Frazier will hit as well as any of the scrubs out there, and he’s as close to free as you can get.
I agree, the bench is the problem now.
How do you solve a problem like Maria? Janish is a plus defender, and can spell Cozart and Phillips. But of Frazier, Cairo, and Janish, I’d prefer Cairo and Frazier. Sorry, but Janish would be my choice for getting sent down. Assuming you don’t start the year with 6 SPs as listed above, that makes 24.
Heisey was great off the bench last year. Trade, get a left fielder to make 25, and make Heisey your 4th OF. That improves left field and the bench at the same time.
The front office has stunned me lately so I’m expecting a trade for an every day left fielder similar to the Latos deal. The farm would be bare, but with such young talent, you have a few years to rebuild it.
Isn’t this how the Phils were built at first?
Another situation to look out for whoever signs Cespedes. If the Marlins get him, They have Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton, Chris Coghlan and Yoenis Cespedes in the outfield. One of them will get traded, probably Coghlan, and though he hasnt been too much since his rookie season, he’d be a guy to look out for.
The better situation? The yankees get Cespedes and we get either Gardner or Swisher in a trade, both of whom i’d be thrilled about. Gardner gives us a leadoff guy who mashes over stretches and gives you better than solid d. In swisher you get a switch hitting power threat and a great lockerroom personality.
Coghlan you get for cheap, Gardner and swisher would be better deals.
Also, people who are really worried about our minor league system draining, If we cant get votto long term, we’ll get a haul of prospects for him, and then a little further down the road, if Chapman is successful, you’ll probably be looking at a deadline deal involving some more stud prospects. Plus a few drafts are coming up, i believe at least one first year player draft a year, and then the rule five draft in december. We’ll get our prospects. There will always be prospects.
@hermanbates: I like the way you are thinking. Two trade candidates with the most rumors linking them to the Reds?
Seth Smith: The Rockies have a crowded outfield and where looking to trade him. He’s left handed, has a career .348 OBP, average defender (not a liability), can play both corners, three years of control, had a down year last year so his value is favorable for Reds. Expected 2012 salary $2.68 million. Oddly, he had 36 PAs as 4th in the lineup in 2011, 202 PAs as 5th in the lineup, and 193 PAs as 6th in the Rockies lineup last year. His ISO is good, but only averages about 15 HRs per 162 in Colorado. Curious.
Martin Prado: Like the Reds, the Braves have an aged 3rd basemen who will need to sit a couple times a week. Prado is the only other 3rd basemen on the 25-man. If the Braves add another serviceable 3rd basemen, they will likely try to move Prado again. I like that he plays both 3rd base and left field but I’m not certain he is enough of an upgrade (if at all) over Heisey to make the effort worthwhile. He is a likely candidate.
@TC: I like both of the moves, depending on whats given up. I know the braves were asking for the moon of a package deal of prado and jurrjens, and i know they’re trying to package them for adam jones of the orioles. But if that doesn’t work out, prado is a solid hitter and he’d be a good platoon guy as long as the reds don’t buy to high on him(not sure why they would) and i feel like the Rockies are easy to make deals with and i like seth smith as a player. Researching the Marlins even more, i found something a little more interesting.
Emilio Bonifacio had a great season last year, he hit almost .300 and had an OPS of .753, with a 3.3 WAR. He’d be a stud leadoff guy and he’s an excellent defender. Definitely something to look out for.
Who might the Reds deal for to put in LF? Start by looking at Boras clients that may want to be moved or whose teams may want to move them.
Boras just delivered Madson to the Reds in a very team friendly unBoras like deal and move. Obviously he wants to make up for whatever happened when the Mason/ Phillie deal fell through by positioning his client for a huge payday next off season which will make everybody forget the bust happened this off season.
To that end if Boras can sweeten the pot a little more with/ for the Reds, he probably will. So, once the Madson deal is officially on the books, do not be surprised if there is a deal that moves an impact Boras client to the Reds.
@hermanbates: Chris Coghlan was coming back from shoulder and knee injuries last year. I think the Marlins will be excited to have their 2009 RoY back in the lineup. The guy had a better rookie year than Votto. He’s very open about his religious views. But THAT would be a great get.
Neither Gardner nor Swisher had good years last year. Both come with huge contracts. No thanks on either, but again I like the way you are thinking.
@OhioJim: Shin Shoo Choo is the only name i’ve heard, and that was just among the Educated Elite here on the message boards
@OhioJim: You’re being overly pessimistic on C, 3B, LF, CF, and SS.
First, the Reds have been a disaster at short for several years. Cozart would have to fall on his face into a pit of snakes to be worse than what they had last year.
Rolen, yeah, I dunno, he’s not going to lay a full season, but when he’s out there he should be an improvement over how he was last year. Cairo was surprisingly good last year, so 3B is probably a wash.
Heisey has too many deriders. He got half a season last year and was totally decent. As long as he continues to be totally decent, they’ll be fine. you can’t have a world beater everywhere.
Mesoraco might not be as good as Hernandez last year with the bat (for what it’s worth, Hernandez almost certainly won’t be that good again), but there’s growing evidence that catcher defense matters a lot more than we’ve ever known and that Hernandez was not very good at it.
Stubbs is not going to be great, but last year is probably as bad as it can get. That is, he might get better, but he’s unlikely to be worse. And, no matter how you feel about the Ks, he was still a totally okay CF.
Basically, the Reds are in very good shape at 1B, 2B, and RF. That is, those guys are all potential all-stars. They have young/imperfect guys everywhere else, but that’s baseball. They’ll be okay.
They don’t have world beaters everywhere, just Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips is a top player, but there aren’t enough guys that take pitches, getting their OBP up. Watching this offense for two years has not left me impressed. If the offense was as good as Al is saying, they wouldn’t have went 79-83, even with the pitching staff.
- Their longest winning streak was 5, and that was to start the season.
- They were shut out nine times, almost 6% of the time.
-In one-run games they were 29-33. In blowouts, they were 20-17. The Reds only scored 14 more runs in those 62 one-run games than they did in those 37 blowouts. This lineup struggles to get a run across when they need it.
-The Reds were 25-38 in games decided by 2 runs or less through August 5, the portion of the season that mattered.
-The Reds were 41-51 in games decided by two runs or less all season, with 40% of those 41 wins coming after August 5, when the team was out of it.
The bullpen will help of course, but the offense has to be more assertive. Relinquishing so many positions to uncertainty is not the way to build an offense that can score nearly at will. The peripherals of the Reds’ stats would suggest that they are an offensive juggernaut, but the results don’t certify that conclusion. The bullpen didn’t blow all of those close games, the Reds simply couldn’t score even when they smelled blood.
I agree, Fanbase; the offense was less than the sum of the parts. I attribute it to having too many guys who strke out too much. The league-average BABIP is about .290, so a hitter who doesn’t put the ball in play when needed is giving up a 29% chance of getting a base hit. I’ve sworn off Drew Stubbs rants for the new year, and I understand that the production of a Joey Votto is premised on an approach that yields some strikeouts. But our hero Barry Larkin struck out only 49 times in his MVP year and only 52 times when he hit 33 homers.
So, I guess the point is that this team would be a lot better if it had Barry Larkin in his prime. Or Ted Kluzewski in 1954, when he had 49 homers and 35 strikeouts. Or Koufax, or maybe Cool Papa Bell.
@secondguessingfanbase: Why would that imply 2010 was unlucky? Why wouldn’t it imply that 2011 was unlucky? Or some combination of both?
Basically, your entire argument comes down to correlation not equalling causation. Good teams tend to have good offense. You don’t seem to understand variance as it applies to baseball. Applying a really simplistic analysis is worth about as much as the effort that was placed into it. This is why stat people despise Bleacherreport gripe about Fangraphs going down hill.
@hermanbates: Emilio Bonifacio sounds good to me. Fast. Switch hitting leadoff hitter, can play anywhere but 1st, pitcher, and catcher. Really Fast. 40 stolen bases. Break out year last year. 3 years of control. Did I mention he was fast? Lots of strikeouts but a .360 OBP guy last year.
A versatile Drew Stubbs with a good year under his belt. I really like him.
@Jason Linden: ??? I don’t know, I kinda think OhioJim was spot on. By the end of your post I kinda had the impression you kinda agreed too.
@TC: No, I don’t. I’ll be a little less roundabout this time:
The Reds will be better at short this year.
They will be the same or better at third.
They will be better in left (remember Jonny Gomes?)
They will be better at center (and Stubbs was above average last year, anyway. 200 Ks or not).
They will be the same or better at catcher.
Honestly, the only position I expect to see a real decline from is second as Phillips almost certainly had his career year last year.
@Jason Linden:
We’ve barely seen Cozart…Jay Bruce started out his major league career on something like a .400 clip.
Heisey could very easily be as bad as he was in his “longer” stints last year and there’s no backup plan on the roster right now…at all.
Stubbs could be equally bad. Doubt he’ll be worse, but assuming he’ll be better is wishful thinking.
Mesoraco: See Cozart x10. Not that there’s a better option anywhere, but if Mes falters then we’re in for a big decline there.
Just playing devil’s advocate. I happen to think last year we got about as unlucky as we could possibly get everywhere but 2B. And I’d even be tempted to say that BP could replicate last year, especially if he’s given some stability in the lineup. He seemed to do his best at #2. I didn’t see anything particularly flukey about his performance last year and he has never been injury prone so I wouldn’t expect his body to suddenly start breaking down at 31. If Bruce can solidify his cleanup role then you’re suddenly making Joey and BP’s jobs a lot easier at 2-3. For me, the season falls on Drew Stubbs ability to finally make the jump. I don’t think we can live with 200 K’s again. Not without a true leadoff hitter on the roster.
I like Bj Upton, but i think the Rays are in it to win it. Mike Morse of the Nats is 30 and entering the last year of his contract, and the Nats have committed major money to Gio Gonzalez and might not be done, but i think they are also in it. What about the Reds waiting to see where Fielder lands, then steal a player from that team? The rumored teams are as follows: Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals. Take out the Brewers and Rangers and there are players we could get from any of these teams considering they’d be willing to dump payroll.
Marlins: can Gaby Sanchez play left? he puts up incredible numbers and the Marlins have to do something with him, but their outfield is full so might not have the same options the Reds do with him.
Jays: Not much talent that interests me that seems realistic for the reds.
Orioles: Adam Jones? he’s a sheer all star. it would probably take a Bailey, Heisey, Jordan Smith + cash to get him but he is a great player. can bat anywhere in the lineup.
Cubs: Soriano? could platoon. doesn’t really interest me more than Ludwick, but the cubs might eat some of his money.
Nats: Maybe the nats have their offensive man and are willing to trade Morse now so they don’t have to deal with trade deadline or a nasty offseason with him.
The giants have also been rumored, but there’s no one that I really see there, I doubt they’d trade Huff but he would be that veteran that we know Walt’s looking for. There’s always BJ Upton but with the Rays recent signings and lack of trading from their starting rotation that was rumored to happen, it looks like they want to win. out of any free agents I’d take Ludwick. maybe he can do something like he did a few years ago with those 37 homers…unlikely but he seems to have the most FA upside.
Other thoughts:
Doubt Shin soo choo would happen, Indians appear to also want offense which means they too are serious about winning.
Most exciting thought (realistic): Either Adam Jones or Mark Trumbo. We know there have been rumors about the Angels needing to trade an outfielder now that Trumbo has moved to the outfield to make room for Albert. sure Wells, Hunter, Abreu would be nice (better than Ludwick)…but i like Trumbo more than any of those guys. Younger, upside. Batting average is down but he’s young. good power. i like him as a player. Jones is a straight up player who would really put the Reds over the top in the outfield.
Most exciting thought (maybe…?): Mike Morse is exciting to think about. maybe Martin Prado. Shane Victorino also is possible. the Phillies want money for Hamels and are going to have to part ways with Victo at years end. They have Dom Brown and Mayberry ready to play. I do like Seth Smith a lot. high OBP for me in left field is what the Reds need.
Most exciting thought (unrealistic): can Prince fielder play left?
@Jason Linden: i couldn’t agree more. You’re right about everything there.
check this article for more on this thought
http://bleacherreport.com/article/new
@Jason Linden: Hmmm. Processing…
At first blush my thought is most of the offensive pieces either 1.) left in FA, 2.) have health questions 3.) had bad years last year, 4.) had unsustainable numbers. That’s the concern. That said, when you break it down like you did I come up with the following:
SS: Agreed – The Reds got very little production out of SS last year. Still, this position is a big question. No one knows how Cozart will perform over extended playing time. Regardless, I find it very hard to believe he would be worse.
3rd: Unsure – Rolen sat for nearly the entire year and Francisco got hurt as well. Not sure if Rolen is still the same player. Is Francisco EE 2.0? It’s a big question.
LF: Tend to Agree – Hmm. Indeed, I forgot about Gomes. I see your point. Still, LF is a hitting position and Heisey doesn’t have a well defined role in the order.
Center: Agree – Ugh, but what an enigma. I think offensive CF will improve and I hope not because Stubbs is sat. Batting your CF 7th seems like a waste to me.
Catcher: Disagree – I do not believe Mez will replace last year’s Hernandez. It’s an unfair expectation to put on a rookie.
Second: Agree. Phillips will contribute and I’m not sure we’ve seen his best season yet. But I also feel he’s due for an off year. He stayed pretty health last year. He’s athletic enough that I feel he still has 3 or 4 good years left in the tank.
There are too many questions. I do not believe as some that the Reds will fall from a 2nd ranked offense to a 13-14th rank offense. That’s insane IMO. I have defended the offense within the past few days. I do think it is very possible they could slip to a middling offense this year. Of course all of this is just a guess by all of us unless someone has developed time travel or a Crystal Ball. No one would predict Reds pitching would be as bad as it was last year. In fact many thought it would be a strength.
@mgen15: Can you give us the jist. I don’t feel like subscribing to read it and I am interested.
Update to number 1 concern… 1.) left in FA or Trade. Sorry. I thought I typed it that way.
Two things.
First, I’ve been reading up on Dmitri Young. If I’m Walt, T try and get him to take an invite to camp. He’s always been able to hit, good clubhouse guy and he lost 75 pounds in the last year.
Second, I wouldnt be surprised if Walt waits to see what shakes out at the end of spring training. Every year someone gets cut and is out of options. Its a way to pick up a serviceable outfielder (or better). I think he’ll keep any extra cash in the wallet for a midseason adjustment if it’s needed.
@TC don’t subscribe, just click the link it’ll work
@TC: don’t subscribe, just click the link it’ll work
Save the money and wait and see how Heisey works in LF. There is no rush to spend the money when we can’t find a obvious choice.
@secondguessingfanbase: They were very streaky last year, and it was frustrating as hell, but I still feel like this is kind of a circumstantial argument. Yeah, I remember watching them consistently strand runners on 3rd and put up 1-2 run games for a week straight only to explode with some 14-1 win that skewed all of their offensive numbers. But I also remember Edgar Renteria seemingly ALWAYS coming to the plate in a critical late game AB and Jonny Gomes starting a whole lot more baseball games than he should have. At the end of a season, 162 games is a lot of games and a run differential is what it is. In 2010 they seemed to ALWAYS get the run across when they needed it.
@eric nyc: That would imply that 2010 was lucky. If it was luck that the Reds got the run across seemingly always, then the club needs to improve on the offense that proved incapable last season. Even if they were unlucky in 2011, I still see them as a team counting on career years from too many players. Standing pat is an awful strategy. Why the Reds are so content with it at their everyday positions is why they don’t win consistently.
John Fay talks about the search for an OF on his blog today.
@eric nyc: Great point. Just the fact that we don’t have Gomes or Renteria on the roster makes the offense better. (and the defense, for that matter).
Of the 8 position players who are slated to start for the Reds in 2012, 5 of them (Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Heisey, and Cozart) posted an OPS+ in excess of 100 in 2011.
Of those five, I think we can generally agree that Votto, Bruce, and Phillips are likely to come close to replicating those numbers. Heisey and Cozart have both seen only limited time, so it’s hard to say for sure whether their numbers are a mirage.
Of the three that posted an OPS+ below 100, I think it’s reasonable to expect some kind of rebound from both Rolen and Stubbs since both were above average in 2010. Mesoraco is the big question mark here, though his minor league numbers suggest that he is at least capable of putting up much better numbers in 2012 than he put up in a limited major league sample in 2011.
I would says it’s disingenuous to call this offense anything less than “above average,” but I also think we need to acknowledge that there is room for significant improvement, particularly in LF and at 3B if Rolen is not 100%.
Still, the question is whether or not there is a player available who is close to a sure bet to significantly improve this offense. Fukudome could be a marginal upgrade and Cespedes is an absolute wild card, but outside of those two, I don’t see much of anything. As far as the trade market is concerned, the Reds would almost certainly have to be looking for buy low or fallen/blocked prospect types since I’m not so sure that they have the pieces to make another blockbuster without totally gutting the farm or weakening the major league roster.
If a good opportunity presents itself, I hope Jocketty jumps all over it. If not, I’m content playing the waiting game until mid-season when a good number of corner OF types are usually available. Barring major injuries, this pitching staff and lineup are good enough to keep us in the race until then.
@AlphaZero: I agree 100% with this. Plus, although I understand the concerns with Meso as a rookie, let’s not forget that Hanigan is still here and will probably get 50 – 60% of the starts (if not more).
It seems to me that even with a lineup consisting of Renteria and Gomes, even a “normal” year from Arroyo would have probably given us an extra 2-3 wins. So with no upgrade to the roster at all, this is at least a .500 club. We had to have added at least 3-4 wins with Latos and another 2-3 with marshall and Madson. I don’t think there’s any way our offense is going to be WORSE than last year, as described by plenty of people above. So being fairly conservative, with average offensive output from the guys we have this club is pushing 88-90 wins. Anyone think that’s not good enough to win the NLC this year?
@secondguessingfanbase: You do realize that you are the guy that nobody wants to talk to, right? You’re the guy who’d be pissed about winning the lottery because of the taxes. People don’t like to talk to that guy.
It seems absurd to me that anyone would think the moves the Reds have made this year will either a) make them worse, or b) not do anything to help them. Would it be nice to have Matt Kemp out in left? Yeah, that would be great. But, it’s not gonna happen. The Reds have done WHAT THEY CAN to improve the team. Walt looked at where they struggled last year, and has made vast improvements. They, by all accounts, should be an improved squad in 2012. At this point in the year, every team has question marks at SOME positions, unless you’re the Yankees or Red Sox. I’d rather have one or two question marks than the six or seven that most teams have.
How much would Ryan Ludwick cost us? You know he is a target since he was a former Cardinal. I would be interested in seeing him platoon with Heisey. I think he would see a vast improvement in his stats coming to Great American. He spent most of his year last year in SD and it hurt the power numbers. If you project his road game stats over 162 games he would have hit .254 with 18 homers and 115 RBIs. Put him in the middle of a better line-up and he would be a steal compared to the OFs left on the market, right?
@rayman5000: I’m not sure the Red Sox or Yankees know who’s going to be pitching for them 5 days a week yet.
But yeah, we improved in areas of weakness without losing any production at the major league level. The only real loss was Hernandez, and I dont’ think he can replicate what he did last year anyway. Even if Mesoraco is a step down, odds are he could be at least as good if not better by 2013.
@Bill Lack: What you’re asking for is a risk-free scenario. Impossible. Looked at another way—the Reds are willing to draft these guys first and and clear out their positional competition thru trades because they beleive these guys are the core of the team, yet they’re not willing to put their money where their mouth is? Seems nonsensical to me.
@redsboomer: Couldn’t agree more. I’m actually surprised Ludwick hasn’t been talked about more. Two years ago, everyone wanted him. Even last year, at the deadline, people were talking about a potential Heisey for Ludwick swap! I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him in a Reds uniform in March.
@redsboomer: I’d rather have Cody Ross. But like I was saying earlier, at this point I’m starting to get a little more comfortable with the idea of just giving Heisey a shot. Let him play every day for the first month or two. If we sign a Luwick or a Ross or a Fukudome then Dusty’s going to play them at least 50% of the time if not more. If we’re going to keep Heisey around we need to figure out if he’s capable of being a position player. We know what he can do off the bench.
@eric nyc: Right…I was just making the point that very few teams (and almost no small market teams) have the luxury of going into a season without some questions. With the (perceived) upgrades to the pitching staff, I’d think the Reds would be able to absorb a minor loss in production on offense, whether from Mes, Cozart, LF, or wherever.
@Sultan of Swaff: I think he’s just being realistic about the suggestion. I’m all for extending some of our guys, but you have to see SOMETHING from them at the major league level first. Latos, yes. Marshall, yes. But Mesoraco? He’s barely seen the bigs and he wasn’t too impressive when he did. Cozart is borderline, but the sample is still pretty small and he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. Plus, we dont’ know what the state of negotiations with BP or Votto is. There’s a reasonable chance that Walt is in touch with Joey’s agent pretty much every day.
I like the thought and the approach, but you can’t just start throwing money out at every young player. Even Matt Moore had to show some production before he got his contract from Tampa.
Not that I am pulling for the guy (or even a fan of his for that matter), but I do think that inviting Manny Ramirez to camp is interesting for a couple reasons. I’m sure the Reds are a fit for what he would want to come back for (a contender), and if the guy has anything left in him, Great American Ball Park could make him look that much better. The Rays signed him last year for one year, 2 million. He is still suspended for the first 50 games, I know, but you have to think that drops his price down even that much more. He’s basically a lottery ticket…if you could get Manny to spring training at a low price (1 million or less I would think), isn’t it at least worth a shot? If he can’t play, cut him. If he can still hit, he’s got until June to work out the kinks, he doesn’t have to play every day when he comes back, and you’ve got yourself a guy that’s possible protection for Votto. I see it as being worth a shot if the price tag is low enough.
I agree, the only reason being that of all the guys who are available through free agency, Manny is the only one who could provide much of an upgrade. The key though, would be knowing when to cut him loose (at the first sign of trouble, if he causes any). And the Reds haven’t exactly shown a willingness to do that. But this is the biggest low-risk, high-reward chance the Reds have had in a long time.
I don’t understand the Ludwick idea. I mean, I guess I do, b/c there are only a handful of FA outfielders, but Ludwick is definitely not a good beat at the money he’s looking for (he made $6.5M last year).
The guy will be 34 in July, and had a 90 OPS+ last year. That’s adjusted for ballparks, but not position. It means he was a below-average hitter, compared to ALL hitters in the NL.
Over the last three years (since Barack Obama was elected), here’s Ludwick’s line: .251 .321 .409
Some of that is obviously PETCO-deflated, but his OPS+ have been 104, 105, 90.
He plays mediocre defense, and isn’t getting any younger. I’d pass.
@rayman5000: I did hit the lottery. It’s called college.
Going through life as if you owe people something because they said you do is the life of a child. Paying 45% of the lump sum in taxes and not questioning your offender is a far more feeble reaction than a baby hollering after someone just took its lollipop.
Did the Reds do what they should have done, which was sign Beltran and Madson? Now Beltran is gone to a division rival, and we’re left discussing the merits of Chris Heisey.
If winning the World Series is the prerogative, the Reds could have done the obvious and done better.
Fangraphs has a most excellent breakdown of the LF situation. Give it a read: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-should-the-reds-do-with-left-field/
@Sultan of Swaff: Interesting article. I’m most interested in the fact that the writer dismisses the fact that Heisey has a reverse-platoon split as just small-sample weirdness that you should ignore. He says reverse splits are “almost never real.”
I admit I’m confused by his splits. It’s nutty, the reverse-split thing, but it’s not really that small a sample anymore. Heisey has 539 PA in the majors.
So, if the goal were to find a platoon partner w/ Heisey, do you trust the stats and look at righties like Ross/Ludwick/Kearns/Gomes, or do you trust the mass of data we have on most other righties in MLB history and consider lefties like Ankiel/Fukudome?
Tough call, I think.
Heisey hit 339/418/506 against LHP in the minors and 285/357/446 against RHP (2006-2010.)
AAA vs LHP: 310/402/507
AA vs LHP: 372/464/574
AAA vs RHP: 265/318/448
AA vs RHP: 333/394/550
Thanks, Greg. Interesting. This is exactly what I was looking for. (Where do you find minor league splits?)
I used to use minorleaguesplits.com, but that website doesn’t have data on it any more. I found out yesterday that someone else setup a website with all the milb splits, but it is only through 2010. It doesn’t have 2011 splits on it. The new website is:
http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits
SAVE THE EXTRA CASH!!!
The Reds will almost certainly be in the hunt near the trade deadline. At that time, you have assessed the team. Spend some cash for an elite rental player that a struggling team gives away. Every year these moves are made by contenders. It would be a nice luxury to have that ability.
@secondguessingfanbase: do you have to be ignorant and offensive? can’t you just say dumb things and leave it at that?
@al: Come on Al, we all know that college automatically makes one smart!
As far as I’m concerned, the fact that there’s a huge argument as to whether the Reds need Heisey, Shin-Soo Choo, Ludwick, or Paul Householder in left field, and that’s the biggest worry, tells me things are pretty good right now.
@secondguessingfanbase: Congratulations on going to college. Is that what you were looking for?
Complaining about everything and countering each positive with a negative is the sign of a miserable existence; a harbinger of a lonely life.
I’d be interested to know how the Reds would have been able to sign Madson after signing Beltran. I’m also baffled at the love affair with Beltran. He’s been a good player, certainly, but to hear you tell it, he’s the second coming of Junior in his prime. Ah well…it’s clear you put little stock in the pitching and defensive aspects of the game.
@Sultan of Swaff: Heisey only had 66 PAs against lefties last year (2-3 PAs a week), so it may be very well true that his reverse split may not be real. He hit .324/.541/865 v. righties last year, and if the reverse split isn’t there and he does that against the league, the Reds will have found their left fielder.
I don’t agree with the article to the extent that it assumes that Heisey is necessarily is OBP-challenged. He had a OBP of .426 in a half of AA in 2009 before being promoted, and last year he had 1 walk in 36 PAs as a pinch hitter, where any hitter is probably more prone to be swinging the bat.
Heisey isn’t Ryan Braun, but he’s a big improvement in all aspects over Jonny G.
I do think this is probably the biggest question about Heisey. He showed pretty good patience at the lower levels of the minors, and has a .365 OBP in his minor league career.
That said, he has a .311 OBP in AAA and a .316 OBP in the majors. So while it’s possible you’re right, that his OBP is artifically low in the majors because of pinch hitting, it also seems possible to me that he has run into better pitching and isn’t going to reach the OBP numbers he put up in the low minors.
Oswalt’s asking price has apparently dropped to $8 million. It’s too bad there’s not a spot for him in the rotation, unless we ship Bailey or Leake out of town in exchange for an OF.
@Big Ed: It is interesting, and will be fun (hopefully) to follow. I’d be fine if he got an extended shot at the job, much like was the case with Gomes last year. Though, if he performs like Gomes, he deserves to go.
[...] Redleg Nation wonders if the Reds still have money to spend. [...]
@Big Ed:
It seems to me that Heisey got a lot of his starts when a an outstanding tough lefty was pitching and Dusty wanted to protect Bruce. This could be part of the reason for Heisey’s weird reverse platoon split and his inferior numbers when starting games. It’s anecdotal, but maybe somebody is up for doing the leg work to figure out if there’s anything to it.
@Vottoeroticism: I saw that too. It did make me wonder what kind of outfielder we could get for Bailey+.
I don’t think that the Reds have even that kind of money though.
I’m guessing we deal with the Arb cases, and bring in someone at less than $2mil.
I was away from the internets most of yesterday so unfortunately was AWOL from this thread. Just read it all — lots of interesting ideas. I could get behind several strategies for LF:
1. Let Heisey play there almost every day. Sign Ankiel (defense) or Ludwick (offense) if they come cheap to use as backup or pinch-hitter with pop. Frazier would be the fifth OF, as his ability to play across the IF is extremely valuable. Problem: Baker may over-use the crusty former-Cardinal so that Heisey can keep him company during the national anthem.
2. Make a small trade for an OF like Seth Smith to platoon with Heisey, who can also give Stubbs and Bruce days off. Frazier would be the fifth OF again. Save the bulk of the remaining cash – if it remains – for a mid-season move or rainy day (injury) fund.
3. Watch upcoming signings and see if that creates a trade intersection with the Marlins or Yankees for a LF like Morrison or Gardner. Heisey goes back to national anthem duty as the fourth OF (and Stubbs insurance).
4. One idea that hasn’t been floated much here, probably because it’s crazy, is to offer Aroldis Chapman for the best OF we can find. Nelson Cruz would be a thumping great RH bat between Votto and Bruce. He has two arbitration years left. The Rangers may not need SP as much as Cruz, though. OTOH, Chapman does have four years left.
OR, offer Chapman to the Miami Marlins for whatever we can get – Morrison and Infante, Stanton??? Who knows how much the Marlins might value Chapman. There are more than a few Cubans in Miami who would flock to see him pitch.
I like that plan. Not a Ludwick fan, but okay.
@Steve Mancuso:
Maybe I’m crazy, but I think that I’d do either of those trades with the Marlins. LoMo+ or Stanton alone would greatly improve the Reds now and in the future. I really like Chapman, but I don’t think he has a chance to be dominating as a starter for a full season until 2014. I’d absolutely trade him for an outstanding LF who is under team control for 3+ years.
Buster Olney reporting that the asking price for Roy Oswalt has dropped. Says Oswalt is looking for ~$8 million a year. If the money’s available, I think we take a flyer on him. Thoughts?
@Vottoeroticism: Sorry, just saw you posted this.
I would like to add to this. LF- I would sign Johnny Damon and platoon him with Heisey. He knows what it takes to win ,he would be valuable in the clubhouse. I would also sign Manny Ramirez. He would be cheap and after 50 games there may be injuries. Bottom line the Reds want to win this year and Manny brings in fans ,need money too. Soriano could be had for cheap.
SP- I would sign one more (Oswalt,Padilla)
) or minor league contract(Harden,Garland,Piniero,Colon)
I would also sign Dmitri Young to a minor league contract.
3B- need a player to play a couple times a week and ready to take over next year.
Bailey,Arroyo(Redsox,Yankees),Francisco(American league), Hanigan(good catchers are at a premium right now, need a veteran catcher behind Mesoraco– Ivan Rodriguez? Adding Stubbs to the mix if they can get a better centerfielder.
Hey guys, just a note:
Some of you are pushing it a little on the comments. We can disagree – even passionately – but let’s keep it civil. If I see any more personal attacks, I’m going to start deleting comments.
One of the reasons I started writing here at RN is because the commenters are so astute and polite. It makes for good discussion. I’d hate to see it devolve into name calling on one of my posts.
Let’s keep it clean.
The problem with waiting until the deadline is the Reds needs to put as much distance as they can between themselves and the Brewers before Braun comes back.
@rayman5000: I don’t even read that guy’s posts anymore. Stopped a while ago. He add nothing to the conversation. Just ignore him.
Oops, actually I’m not willing to trade Chapman just yet and I don’t want Gardner in the outfield either, but otherwise…
@AlphaZero: That’s certainly a good theory. Much of his “regular” playing time likely did come in those types of scenarios…where most guys weren’t really hitting that particular lefty. It’d be interesting to see if it’s the truth…or if we are just remembering it that way.
There are always surprises out there. Reed Johnson was hanging out on the sidelines. No one wanted him but the Cubs (can’t really call them “stupid cubs” anymore now that Epstein is there) picked him up on a minor league contract. He hit .325/.361/.496 in 246 PAs.
Years past, the Reds were able to do the same thing. Gomes, Nix, Hairston, others. These guys had terrific years which (unfortunately) turned into bad multiple year contracts, but for one year these were great last minute minor league contracts that worked out. (Note: Hairston did not come up from Louisville right away and his stay in Cincinnati remained a good one even into the second year.)
@TC: What’s not to like about Garnder? The guy plays the outfield better than just about anyone, get’s on base, and steals a ton of bases.
He’s put up a 11WAR over the last two years. He doesn’t hit for power, but who cares with his skills.
I can’t see how we end up with him, but if there was a way that didn’t involve us getting ripped off, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
Gardner, Phillips, Votto, Bruce is a nasty top 4
Rolen, Stubbs, Cozart, Mesoraco is a pretty damn good bottom 4.
@al: Gardner’s contract is atrocious. Thats the only knock on him, but i love the thought of being able to get him, if the yankees eat some money. interesting to see what happens. Walt definitely aint done.
@al: The yankees will take something that improves them. seeing as they can go out and get whomever they want really at any point…i cant imagine it being to difficult, as long as they have a viable option for replacing him. In this case, Yoenis Cespedes is our answer. The yankees sign him, Gardner becomes expendable. Gardner becomes expendable…Arredondo or Masset or someone else that can help sure up their bullpen should get it done. But it looks like Cespedes will be going somewhere other than New York.
@hermanbates: wiat, what? all i can find on gardner is that he was paid $.5mil last year, and is arb eligible for the first time this year.
so what’s the deal with his contract?
@al: I didn’t do any research, when i offered up the trade for gardner earlier in the thread @TC said his contract was bad news, and i took him for his word. apparently it’s not a bad contract, thus reinforcing my believe that this would be an unbelievable move to pull off
Yeah, that was my fault. (Blush) Somehow I was looking at Curtis Granderson when I wrote that. I’m not as familiar with AL rosters.
After (Ahem) careful reconsideration, I am now in favor of Brett Gardner.
Is Cespedes TOTALLY out of the question? I mean it’s a crazy long shot, but before we signed Chapman wouldn’t you have said the exact same thing about him? I don’t know…just thinking out loud. I’m not in favor of it. I still don’t like the Chapman signing. But it’s something to talk about.
Lots of interesting stuff. Just a couple of things. Oswalt is not worth $8M. He is in steep decline and hits 35 in August. He’s injury prone and very hittable.
Getting Mike Stanton from the Marlins would take a whole lot more than Aroldis Chapman. The Marlins have laughed at offers for Stanton.
I’m not convinced that Heisey’s poor ML stats against lefties are just a matter of sample size. I know he had good numbers against lefties in the minors.
But he’s susceptible to change ups off the outside corner, and he’s gotten a steady diet of those from major league pitchers.
He can adjust, but until he does, he’s not going to hit ML lefties.
Yeah, maybe. I’ve heard this before, from others. The thing is, righties can throw changeups on the outside corner too, right? Or curves/sliders on the outside corner (if you’re talking about pitches that break away from him). It seems like if it’s a matter of a certain pitch, a righty could throw it too.
The only thing a righty can’t do (that a lefty can) is release the ball from the first-base side of the rubber.
Anyway, I’m just saying I remain confused by Heisey’s reverse splits. I’m not yet convinced it’s real (and I’m hoping it’s not).
Curves/sliders on the outside corner from a RHed pitcher give Heisey a lot of trouble too, he strikes out a lot on those pitches. The one pitch you never want to throw to Heisey is an inside fastball, and for some reason righties throw him that pitch. I don’t know if lefties throw it as often. I also have no idea whether turning on an inside fastball is easier against a righty than a lefty, but it is how Heisey makes a living.
Agreed. And even if Heisey has had a “real” problem with lefties, he can adjust.
If Hanigan would have gotten the Seth Smith deal done, it would have happened by now. Letting go of Hanigan at this point isn’t a good idea, though. We really don’t know what to expect from Meso over a full season, so getting rid of a guy who can handle our largely inconsistent pitching staff right now isn’t good timing.
Holding on to the cash for deadline deals isn’t a bad idea. Problem is, I feel that teams truly committed to a playoff run find the $ in July even if they nearly tapped themselves completing the roster in the spring.
Giving away games in April and May is still giving away games. Who knows what big deals other teams will make to improve themselves down the stretch, or which teams will flat out play better in the 2nd half. If you can find a high OBP LF who can help you from the beginning of April, I think you have to get him.
Deadline deals usually only work when the player being traded for is top flight. Teams usually end up wasting resources unless they think big, like Milwaukee did with Sabbathia.
@Dan: Fangraphs is where I find stats I can’t find anywhere else. http://www.fangraphs.com There are others though.
@secondguessingfanbase: It isn’t that simple though. the rumor i heard, courtesy of mlbtraderumors.com, was that the rays would send a pitcher to rockie for seth smith and wed flip hanigan to the rays for smith then. the rockies already signed ramon hernandez. i believe, unless our bullpen or bailey is involved, it will need to be a three team trade. but perhaps im wrong.