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According to ESPNChicago’s Bruce Levine, the Reds and Cubs have apparently completed the trade “in principle” that brings left-handed relief pitcher Sean Marshall to Cincinnati. In exchange, the Reds sent left-handed starting pitcher Travis Wood and two minor league players to Chicago. No details yet on the two minor league players.
Both Marshall and Wood still have to pass physicals. The trade has not yet been confirmed by either team.
For the past two years, Marshall has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. His combined stats for 2010 and 2011: 10.12 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 2.07 FIP, 2.45 ERA, 55% GB, 5.0 fWAR and he saved six games.
Marshall is scheduled to make $3.1 million in 2012 and then is eligible for free agency. It is unclear whether the Reds intend to use Marshall as their closer or continue his role as a set-up reliever, although most reports indicate that Marshall’s role will be locking down the 8th inning.
Mark Sheldon is still denying this because of his “sources”. Either it’s still just talk, or Mark needs new sources. I’m really anxious to see who the 2 prospects are.
If this is legit, I say boo. Boo, I say.
so basically, marshall is this year’s chapman, and chapman is this year’s wood. those are both upgrades i think, so it’s another way we’ll be better.
still, it could suck facing wood for the next 5 years. not sure if that’s worth one year of a setup man. if they give him the closer job, then maybe this makes more sense.
cueto
latos
leake
chapman
arroyo
bailey in the pen?
Wow. For one year of Marshall. Strikes me as odd. I wonder if they have some way of knowing they’ll be able to extend his contract?
I like Wood, but where does he fit in? He is not bullpen material and there is no room in teh rotation so he sits another season in AAA? Exactly how is this a bad deal?
@al: Do we think Chapman, by virture of innings moderation would have to be the 5th man?
@dn4192: It may be a fine deal for just this year… but look at our starting pitching depth in the minors now and on the 40 man… oops, there isn’t any. Are we comfortable with the Daryl Thompson cup of coffee when (not if) needed? Reineke maybe.
@Matt WI: probably right.
Marshall was one of the best setup men in baseball last season, but there are four reasons NOT to like this deal. 1) Marshall is a FA in 2013; 2) two of Wood’s top four age 24 comparables are Maholm and Romero; 3) there is high volatility from year to year in a reliever’s effectiveness; and 4) Marshall’s $3.5 million contract means we likely won’t have that money to put into a LF like Beltran.
One name for emergency starting pitching depth is Sam LeCure.
** sorry for the repost
Sam Lecure is an option. Our bullpen needed help, you don’t get quality without giving something up.
I don’t see why the Reds can’t maybe work out a 2 – 3 year extension. Also there was ZERO chance of Beltran ever being a Red. He wants to many years and to much money so to say this deal hurt our chances to get Beltran just doesn’t fly in my opinion.
@dn4192: totally agree on beltran. i think people let their imaginations carry them away with that one. there was never a rumor tying us to beltran, and jocketty said that we didn’t have the money to sign someone like willingham ($7mil), so there was never a chance we would sign him.
Well, if he just doesn’t want to be in Cincinnati, that’s one possible reason. That’s one quite likely reason, actually.
Also, if he’s inclined to test the market and get maximum dollars (very much his right), that’s another reason he might not want to sign an extension.
It’s all speculation at this point, but you have to think chances are darn good it’s one year of Marshall and then he walks.
Call me a flip flopper, but while I wasn’t thrilled about the deal when I heard it this morning, I’m slowly getting on board. Each look at Wood’s and Marshall’s numbers push me toward acceptence. And besides, we wanted action, and now we’re getting it. I like the attitude as long as it remains within reason.
Think the Reds will go after League? Not sure what trade chips are left that we’re willing to part with.
Who are the minor leaguers? Wood and two other players seems like a lot, given the ages and years of control for Wood vs. Marshall.
Would you rather have had Walt over pay and with multiple years a semi good reliever or go out and get one of the best even if it’s just for 1 year?
I don’t necessarily hate this deal, but I would have been willing to go with someone in-house for a setup man and/or closer.
Relief pitchers will break your heart every time. Unless they’re named Mariano Rivera.
The fact that the REDS gave up the two minor leaguers makes me think Jocketty doesn’t know what he’s doing here. If he gave up Hamilton, I’ll be hiring Tanya Harding’s boyfriend.
@Dave Lowenthal: Fay mentioned he didn’t think they were “prospects”… simply minor leaguers. I wouldn’t expect anyone from the top 10. If it is, I drastically change my stance.
Better not be anyone from top 20
the more i think about this deal, it really all comes down to what you think of wood. if he is what he was last year, i don’t care how many years he’s controlled or for what price, it’s just not that valuable. he’s not the kind of guy who pitches for a winning team at any price.
however, if he can be a third starter, era+ of 115 like he had two years back, then sean marshal is going to have to get some cy young votes for this to make sense.
i’m with everyone here it sounds like, in being confused about the minor leaguers. is there any cash coming our way i wonder?
Every report has it as minor leagues and not prospects and to me there is a huge difference. In the Latos deal the report were “prospects” not minor leaguers…
@CP: Right. As long as neither minor leaguer is a top 20 Reds prospect, I’m in.
@David:
2. The problem with the comparables is they only compare the stats. In Romero’s case it’s stats accumulated pitching in the much tougher AL East compared to Wood accumulating stats pitching in the NL Central. In Maholm’s case his year to year stats have been as volatile as a reliever’s.
Let’s face it. The league figured out Wood at the end of ’10 and throughout ’11. His velocity is so-so. His location is so-so. His movement is so-so. He has some quality pitches, but no out pitches. Ultimately, he is a long reliever. This is a coup for the Reds. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised that part of the delay today was related to extending Marshall for an extra two years.
Marshall has solid velocity. He has excellent command. He has an absolutely filthy yellow hammer monster curve. He is a ground ball machine. His platoon splits are negligible. Of all of the closers (yes, closers) on the market, he is the best. Get him signed for three years and pencil him in to close games and he will save 35-45 games per year at the price of a set-up guy.
Great trade!
besides the fact that it’s an awful lot to trade for a reliever I think this adds to the depth issues. Plus I liked Wood more than most starters on the team. Really am surprised how expensive it was to trade for a reliever.
Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Latos, Leake and LeCure are about it for the rotation. Chapman possibly not being ready and 1 injury and the team is in deep trouble.
Cozart, Janish, Gregorius and Negron are it for SS
Heisey, Phipps, Stubbs and Frazier are it for LF
Stubbs should have been Sappelt
I would say there’s some money going from the Cubs to Reds in this deal. That’s why the Reds are adding some minor league players to the deal. The commissioner has to approve a deal if a certain amount of money is involved. I was concerned about having another lefty for the bullpen with Chapman as a possible starter. Not concerned now… Marshall is very good in that role and can actually start or even close. Nice pickup. Hate to see them give up on a young lefty, but I don’t think he would have made the rotation this year. Now you have a mix of Marshall, Bray, Ondrusek, Masset, LeCure and Arredondo and probably another arm. I don’t think Walt is done yet.
In 2010, the bullpen wa lights outand a major strength of the club, with the exception of the daily tightrope walk by CoCo. In 2011, the bullpen performance fell off drastically and the result was a a sub .500 season. I think Reds’ management lost confidence in Wood and he became the odd man out in the starting rotation. This deal looks solid, assuming the two monor league throw ins are just that…
The minor leaguers are rumored to be Kevin Coddington and Travis Webb. Pending physicals.
@BubbaFan:
2 TW’s going in the trade.
Now that I have a moment to say more than “boo”:
I don’t like this because the Reds now have very little depth at SP. Nearly every staff has someone get hurt during the year. Wood was excellent depth.
Also, ask yourself this question: Is this team better with Wood at #5 and Arroyo off the team or with Arroyo at #5 and Marshall in the bullpen?
Also, if Epstein likes a player, this tells me something good about that player.
I wish now the Reds could swing a deal for Parra of the Dbacks for leftfield. 2011 Gold Glove, would not have to be platooned for, .292 hitter.
I will take Bronson right now over Wood, now in 2-3 years no, but this coming season Bronson is a better choice in my opinion.
If we’re engaging in hypotheticals (we know Arroyo will be in the rotation), I’d prefer neither Wood or Arroyo in the rotation and Marshall in the bullpen.
If Arroyo comes back from his bad 2011 to be the pitcher he was the previous few years, the answer to your question isn’t even close. You take Arroyo and Marshall.
Depth at SP is important, but so is having a shut-down bullpen. There was no assurance that Wood would help the Reds much, but we know Marshall will pitch 75 very important innings.
Beltran is reportedly deciding between the Cards and the Blue Jays. I sure hope he goes with the Jays.
@Steve Mancuso: I just don’t by the notion that you can create a “shut-down” bullpen. Relievers are often really inconsistent.
I know I’m higher on Wood than most, but I really do think he’s going to be something. I feel good about my opinion since Epstein apparently agrees with me.
I’m also on record thinking Arroyo will bounce back, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as Wood this year. Given that the Reds absolutely have to have six starters if Chapman is one of them, I’d rather Wood be the sixth than Arroyo. Marshall or no Marshall.
I guess Walt could have given up Leake or Chapman or such as that is the type of player the Cubs were looking for.
@dn4192:
@Jason Linden: Jays would have like 7 competent OFs if Beltran signs there.
@dn4192: My point is that a reliever is never worth giving up a competent starter especially when I don’t believe the Reds have as much depth there as others seem to.
@CP: Yeah, I dunno. It’s just being reported that the Cards and Jays have put up the two best offers.
John Lackey.
Clearly Jocketty doesn’t value Wood that much. You don’t trade a starting pitcher for bullpen help unless you think you’re selling the starter high.
We’re going to find out how right this evaluation is for a lot of years.
I don’t think the Reds have starting pitching depth even with Wood, unless you count having interchangeable parts that stunk in 2011 as “depth”. Wood in 2010 looked promising. Last year he looked Bronsonesque. Right now? Latos, Cueto, Leake… and pray for rain. Latos didn’t cure everything. He’s real good but he’s not three guys!
Bailey? Lifetime ERA+ is 85. Never been above 93. But he’s probably #4 right now. Arroyo? His strikeout rate dropped after 2008. Not a good sign for predicting recovery from last year’s putrid showing. Chapman? Who knows. LeCure? His on-field performance in 2011 earned him a longer look. Personally I’d rather see LeCure in there an Arroyo mowing the lawn out front.
@Jason Linden: This is a good debate. There have been good points on both sides. However, Theo Epstein is not infallible. He’s better than Jocketty, but he makes mistakes too.
That said, I like Wood for SP depth too, and it worries me; on the other hand, I see Steve’s point about option (c), none of the above. I happen to like Wood much better than Arroyo, and I disagree with Drew Mac that it’s obvious that the league figured out Wood last year. Maybe they did, but maybe he has only had 30+ starts and it’s too early to tell.
This deal is not obviously terrible. I would not have done it personally. Drew Mac has an interesting point—I wonder how much Marshall would want for say a 2 year extension—if MLB does not see him as a closer—which he is—maybe they could lock him down on the cheap.
Marshall can also close, pitch 2-3 days in a row, which may(hopefully) or may not keep Baker from playing the use the closer 3-4 days in a row because there’s no other reliable one card.
@Dave Lowenthal: Oh yeah, I know Epstein isn’t perfect, but I do think he’s one of the best GMs around. If I had to choose between having him in charge of my team and having Jocketty in charge, I’d take Epstein, and I think I like Jocketty more than most.
i like the trade, Wood has some upside but i don’t see him as the type of SP we’ll need to compete against the Phils or Cards in the playoffs.
Maybe some of our big money guys can defer some money to sign somebody like beltran, otherwise it ain’t gonna happen. Almost zero chance of that scenario taking place, just a dream.
The Cubs have entirely different needs/goals at this point than do the Reds, so they have different valuations of players, which is usually what it takes to produce a finalized trade.
That also makes it entirely possible that both Theo and Walt are right about it.
Epstein knows they have no shot at contending this year, so Marshall has lower value to the Cubs. Their SP is in very dire straits, so they may be willing to take a chance on Wood and pencil him in for 30 starts.
The Reds are in exactly the opposite situation. They have no need to gamble with 30 starts this year, and a first-tier reliever could make a big difference in (a) making the playoffs and (b) winning some playoff games.
So Theo doesn’t have to be wrong for Walt to be right.
having been a redsox fan for a long time, i don’t give epstein much credit, i’m not too worried about that angle. he made tons of bad moves with the sox, but they just had the payroll to buy new guys and bury them. they drafted well, but mostly the guys the developed were in the system before he was in charge.
@Steve Mancuso: this is a great point. to me, its clear that the reds are better in 2012 with this trade, and as discussed on this site, that’s clearly the game plan.
i wonder why the reports are already saying marshall won’t close. he seems as good or better than any of the “closers” that the reds have been connected to. and with arredondo’s splits, he’s like having another lefty in the pen.
Like the trade or not, what it does is Dusty-proof the handling of Chapman. No need to put Aroldis in the pen when there’s filthy LH Marshall there already. And now we need Chapman’s innings in the rotation. Stretch him out and see what we’ve got there.
Pound for pound Wood vs. Marshall, the Reds got the better end of the deal. The thing that ties it up for me is the years of control. Wood for 5, Marshall for 1. That makes it fair. The two minor leaguers (I don’t care if I’ve never heard of them) tells me Walt was dealing from a weak position.
I agree with 90% of the other posters, it all depends on who the attachments are.
Really good question. When I first heard about this trade possibility, my reaction was that the Reds were thinking outside the box about a closer. They’d identified a good set-up reliever who could close and not have to pay full weight on an ‘established’ closer. And I was happy about that possibility, though recognized I was probably just projecting wishful thinking.
Looks like ‘sources’ (probably Walt) are telling Sheldon and Fay that we’re still going after an established closer like Cordero. Old dogs, new tricks.
Sigh.
It’s a shame a GM has to take the manager’s decision into account when he builds a team.
Or he could fire the manager instead. I’d pick that option.
Geesh! Beltran, Beltran, Beltran… What am I missing about Carlos Beltran? We already have Beltran. He’s named Jay Bruce. Jay’s great, but not 12.5 million great.
And about Theo Epstein… I love that guy. Very classy. Now, can he educate the fans to make them less annoying? No, I suppose it’s too much to hope since all the intelligent people in Chicago like the Sox.
Eh I hate the deal but it’s relatively low risk. There is little chance that Wood becomes a #2 or #3. The Reds have first dibs on resigning Marshall. If a pitcher gets hurt, the reds can likely find a pitcher somewhat equal to Travis Wood.
Does anyone know the status of Justin Lehr?
@TC: Bruce has never put up the numbers up Beltran has over a full season.
But anyway, you know what’s better than one Jay Bruce? Two Jay Bruces.
Arroyo will be awesome this year. Book it.
@CP: Well said actually.
@al: If the Reds are still in the market for a closer then they are just stupid. If they’ve allocated money for a closer then they should just save it for July. Marshall should close, or they should close by committee with Marshall getting most of the high leverage innings (this is my preferred option but Baker will never do it, so just have Marshall close).
@Steve Mancuso: There’s nothing like spending 10% of your payroll to very possibly make your team worse.
what is our strategy for lead-off this year? Are we going to let Cozart take a shot at it?
@TC: Either you are joking, or you better go buy the drug-test-avoidance kit that Onterrio Smith used! (Or maybe “awesome” has an alternative defintion?)
@brucebruce: I think the trade can be justified but that ain’t how to do it. Even if Wood is the wrong guy to pitch in an NLDS or NLCS, you have to get TO the NLDS. You need #4/#5 guys to do that!
I’m getting more frustrated by the minute. The Reds bullpen in 2012 currently has Masset, Lecure, Bray, and Marshall. Those 4 guys all can handle things. There are drawbacks to the first three, but if it turns out that they need help in the pen, help can be found midseason. Why would you shell out big money now, for Cordero, and leave yourself no flexibility midseason? What if you need a hitter and it turns out Cordero sucks? Which is a significant possibility.
@Dave Lowenthal: At first glance, Marshall leaves the Reds with less payroll room. However, if Walt views him as the closer but extends him for two more years at 4.5-6 million per (after this year), he is a great and saves the Reds money. Essentially, he is Madsen (with perhaps better stuff) without the label of closer as you negotiate his contract. Then, with the money saved from Volquez, Alonso, not signing Coco, as well as the money that Walt still supposedly already had to work with, there is suddenly enough room to take on another substantial salary. Now, whether they make another trade this offseason remains to be seen. It is helpful, though, knowing that a midseason deal won’t be squashed because of salary concerns.
Perhaps I am being naive, but I believe that Jocketty is being very shrewd here. The days of overtly fooling other GMs are over. GMs now have to find inventive ways to swing deals that are mutually beneficial. I believe that the Latos deal and this deal are prime examples of this. Are Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, and Wood prospects? . . . Sure. . . . But so were Kurt Stillwell, Tracy Jones, Mo Sanford, Ryan Wagner, Brandon Larson, and Chad Mottola.
@Dave Lowenthal: I’ve never wanted the Red Sox to make a signing so much.
@Dave Lowenthal:
Well put, i only said that bc i see Homer, Leake, or Chapman being those guys, all have better stuff than Wood, in my opinion. I agree with your assessment on Marshall, why spend money on a closer we could use elsewhere, i.e. extending phills, signing another need, or at the trade deadline
@Steve Mancuso:
Possibly to keep available closers interested in signing instead of deterring them by saying he’s our new closer.
Dislike. THere’s no way Dusty uses a guy who’s never been a closer in the 9th inning…just not his style. So we’re spending $3 million on a setup man and we still don’t know who’s going to be closing, let alone playing left field? Say goodbye to any hope of Carlos Beltran. I just don’t see how we were hard up for middle relievers with Bray, Ondrusek, Masset, and Arredondo. Yeah, marshall is better than any of those guys, but not THAT much better. Certainly not $3 million better. I don’t know who else we gave up…I’m not that concerned about losing Wood. But the salary figure alone makes me dislike this move.
FWIW, I’m pretty sure Beltran to the Reds was born here at Redleg Nation, so I’m not sure if any actual hope is being lost here.
@Matt WI: Yeah I know…I could still hope. It’s just clear now that the plan all along has been to platoon Heisey and some retread off the street all year. So I still don’t know who’s batting cleanup. Guess it’s going to be Bruce.
@eric nyc: Are all those other guys working for free? He’s clearly better than all the listed (Bray is the closest). Marshall’s salary isn’t what I’m concerned about. It’s the guy following…
@CP: So what do you think this means? Chapman closing? You’d have to think it closes the door on Cordero. Would they be comfortable putting Bray or Masset back there? Is there ANY chance they’re looking at Marshall to close?
@eric nyc: Reds haven’t said. I hope they consider him for the closer, but Fay/Sheldon think they still want to get another closer…which means that Marshall would be used the same way the cubs used him and the Reds used Chapman. I can understand wanting more bullpen help, but I’m hoping the answer isn’t CoCo.
@eric nyc: And all indications is that the plan is for Chapman to start.
@Drew Mac:
I give Madson the edge over Marshall on pure stuff. He has a devastating changeup and can survive better with just his fastball and has a better swing and miss%
@CP: If they wouldn’t be comfortable putting Marshall in he closing role, then they wouldn’t be comfortable putting anyone on the current roster there. He’s now by FAR the best reliever you have in the pen. So if he’s not the guy you trust in the 9th because that’s not how he’s been used before, then you’re still on the market for your closer. But how are you going to spend $3 million on a setup man and then go out and find a cheaper guy to close your ballgames? It’s not that I don’t like Marshall. He makes the bullpen significantly better than it was 24 hours ago. I just don’t understand the strategy. Maybe there is still some last second CoCo signing? God I hope he takes a big pay cut if that happens…Otherwise it’s Heisey/Sappelt all year in LF.
I know that’s what they say, and actually taking Wood out of the mix strengthens that plan, but I still can’t see Dusty OR Walt shying away from the temptation to make him the closer now. Honestly, if you aren’t going to trade him, at this point it might be the best plan. You aren’t going to get more than 150 innings max out of him this year. Get a couple years of elite pitching in the 9th out of him before you trade him.
@eric nyc: The allure of having Latos/Cueto/Chapman should override that one. I won’t be surprised if Chapman starts in AAA, but he’ll only be a closer if the Reds have a lot of blown saves or he struggles significantly in extending his starts.
@eric nyc: Marshall IS far better than anyone—the third best reliever in all of baseball last year.
I agree though, I can’t see Baker using him in the 9th inning because, of course, he hasn’t done it.
I’m just wondering—if the Reds had a disaster in the rotation, could Marshall start? He used to and wasn’t half bad in his last year as a starter. Obviously things might be different in the way he pitches if he had to be extended many innings.
I know it’ll never happen, of course.
Hey, Red Haze20 has the right idea. We need to go get Parra from the stupid D’Backs. Why sign Jason Kubel (a DH at best) to play left when your 24-year-old guy just won a gold glove?
Hopefully we just got our closer and will stop talking to CoCo. Or, tell him he’s set-up man material and we’re not paying him in excess of $4M.
What will it take to get Parra? Todd Frazier, anyone? Dusty won’t use him.
And can we get comfortable with Heisey in left? 18HR in part-time minutes. Pardon the hoops parlance there.
@Jason in Toronto: Heisey did 90% of his damage off the bench. I don’t quite understand the reasoning, but whenever we’ve given Heisey a chance to start at all consistently his numbers fall off a cliff. He might be one of the best PH’s in the National League, but he’s not the everyday answer at LF. And the worst part is that, even if he was, he’s obviously not a cleanup hitter and that’s what we REALLY need right now. I think we might sign Coco Crisp and keep our fingers crossed with Bruce at #4.
Crisp
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Cozart
Stubbs
Mesoraco
Heisey, Cairo, Francisco, Frazier off the bench?
Not MUCh better than we were last year, but maybe a little? Better hope the rotation steps up…
Pass on Crisp.
Lance’s twitter account has been annoying all night. Had this gem though:
From email: “This sets the Reds back 10 years easy. This is a disaster plane and simple.”
@CP: Ha. I mean it’s nothing more than a wash talent-wise. The only reason I really don’t like it is because it swallows up the salary we freed up in the Latos deal and doesn’t make us much better in the process. If anything it might be a Marshall-for-Arredondo swap on the roster, which improves the pen but probably doesn’t give us more than 1-2 wins over the course of the year. Not worth $3 million. But Wood wasn’t going to be an All Star and Marshall is only signed for a year. This certainly doesn’t do any long-term damage to the club.
@eric nyc: You need to recalibrate your dollars per win, I think.
Heisey is a dead red fastball hitter; and he sees more of them off the bench because of game situations he is dropped into and because most relievers are relievers because they don’t have the ability to command breaking stuff well enough to use it effectively in tight situations.
Heck, Stubbs might be even more impressive than Heisey if he was used the way Heisey has been used the last two seasons.
There are starters you can go and get cheaply who can effectively stand in. LeCure is a dynamite spot starter. And mostly, the reds have a leadoff hitter. His name is drew stubbs. You force him to bunt twice a game and suddenly have a leadoff guy.
it’s funny how we all get attached to the guys we know. reading the responses that fay has on his blog (mostly from chicago reporters) they all feel like they got hosed.
the general sentiment is, sean marshall is the best lh reliever in the game, and all we could get was a young 5th starter?
and interesting point was made about the inpact of the new CBA on this trade. the cubs (and now reds) won’t get any picks for marshall when he becomes a FA, so for a team not contending, there really isn’t any point to keeping a player like that.
it also reduces his value to the acquiring team, so maybe that’s why they couldn’t get more than travis wood.
The Reds do have a leadoff hitter, but his name is Brandon Phillips. He had so much success there last season, there is no way he doesn’t start there this season.
That, and the fact that speed is much more valuable down in the order, than in front of a bunch of guys trying to go yard.
So we have Cueto, Latos, Leake, and Arroyo who are in the rotation and Chapman supposedly moving to the roll, does that mean Baily moves to the pen and maybe is an option for the closer spot? As with most here this deal makes alot more sense to me if Marshall is extended for 1-2 years and if the “minor league players” are not to significant.
@hermanbates: When will this nonsense about Stubbs bunting stop?
@al: Actually, the Cubs probably could have gotten a pick for Marshall, and the Reds might be able to also. Here’s how: you make Marshall the closer and he gets 40 saves in 45 opps with the same peripherals that he put up the last two years. You make him the qualifying offer of 1 year for 12M. That should be about the amount. If he really does put up 40 saves, there’s a good chance he declines, and honestly, there’s a good chance someone is willing to forfeit a draft pick for 40 saves.
There aren’t going to be many FAs that get a qualifying offer; it’s going to be reserved for elite FAs. But think of it this way; people here are talking about paying Lidge, Cordero, those kind of guys 8M for 1 year, how wacked out is it to pay Marshall 12M? And he probably won’t accept it as he’ll be looking for a huge payday if he has a great year this year, especially if he has that huge save number that people look for.
@redhaze20: I think that they need to give Heisey a full season chance. If they don’t like him at all they can go get someone to take his place or they see how it plays out. They need to give him a chance though.
@al: Just an aside: maybe I’m weird. I get unattached to guys I know, like Cordero.
To: Epstein’s nephew or whatever your name is with the Red Sox, the GM
From: RLN
Re: Xmas wish—please sign Cordero
Are there any other viable options for left field in the free agent market other than Beltran? I also think that we are far too old and inferior at 3B. I just don’t see Rolen getting it done anymore and I wasn’t impressed with Fransisco, although he has not been given the chance that he may need to get things going. Thoughts?
If there was ever a case study for buying high/selling low, this last week should be one of the leading examples. I love Mat Latos. I love Sean Marshall. I think the Reds will be a better team this year because of these two trades. What we are giving up to get them boggles my mind. Just last year, everyone was raving over EV and his return to the team. I don’t mean everyone in Reds fandom/blogosphere world, but most leading prediction people had EV having a monster year. Started game 1 of the playoffs, opening day starter. So tell me how value drops that quick when his biggest problem (other than head case) was his control (typically the last thing to return after TJ surgery). Then throw in three number one draft picks. I know they were all still prospects, what had they done at the major league level. My comment to that is they were all thought highly enough of to be first round picks and all three were about to make it to the major leagues. Something tells me that the career trajectory was right were it needed to be and in some cases maybe a little higher than it should be. Now we trade Travis Wood off a bad season, when it’s possible that by looking at his relief number so far (small sample size noted) he could turn out to be the next Sean Marshall (but the Reds get 5 years of team control instead of one). Throw in two minor leaguers and it seems we are giving up a lot for a very good set up guy.
My conclusion through this entire rant is, this is how Walt always worked in St Louis so I hope it works here. But in St Louis he had Pujols. I hope he learns from previous experience and breaks the bank with Votto. A full stadium throughout the summer plus a run of four or five solid years (playoffs) will offset that investment.
When arroyo and rolen come off the books, how much cap space are we talking? someone who knows the numbers please answer. And then heres my question. When these two do come off, wont it be prime time to sign Votto long term, and thus, we’ll have the room to extend him? is this out of the question, wrong, not enough? Why hasn’t this been brought up? Phillips too. If Billy Hamilton makes some serious strides this year, why not install him at second right away? That’ll take care of the lead off spot, second base and take phillips cap hit away. Am i completely off the mark here, or is this possible?
As tired as the Reds were of Dunn, they sure have had a hard time replacing him. Trading for Marshall makes it that much harder. Chris Heisey is not the answer unless we’re talking about the need for a decent 4th OF.
For all the talk about Epstein, one would assume Walt has never won a World Series or been a consistent contender with a budget $20 million shorter than the Boston Red Sox’s floor.
No, that’s you assuming Walt and Dusty have a poor relationship. You must be the little martian on Jocketty’s shoulders to have that kind of information.
@Ckeever
If you thought the “unemployed blogger” line was for you, you were a little sensitive there, there was zero insinuation to be taken from that. Didn’t think the post came off as a jerk but if I offended you, I’m sorry.
I seen desire from Edinson when he came to Cincinnati and everyone in Texas said he was a bust. The only reason the world expected anything from him is because he did step up and show fortitude and skill at some point in a Reds uniform. I don’t know the details of the work visa, the visa process can be very complicated and the requirements can change at the drop of a hat. Hustle and all that wasn’t his issue last year, pitching was. Fans overvaluing hustle and undervaluing job performance is why Ryan Freel was able to stay in a Reds uniform so long. Edinson wasn’t striking guys out so he needed to be addressed. Not covering 1B a couple times does not concern me like 40 pitches in the 1st inning does.
@Dave Lowenthal:
He has 3 above average pitches and a good enough fastball to make it as a reliable starter.
I was thinking of Marshall as a potential starter as well. I saw him in high school and college (Richmond area / VCU) and thats what he did – start, and in the minors and first few years with Cubs.
But it looks fairly obvious that the Reds acquired him for the bullpen.
@secondguessingfanbase: Sensitive? No. I despise arrogance and your responses wreak of it. I’ll withhold further comment so I don’t get booted from this site.
I’ve read a couple articles that praise the trade because “Cincinnati filled one of its biggest needs in a LH reliever.” Am I missing something? Bill Bray was almost automatic for most of last year. He tapered off down the stretch just like the rest of our bullpen because our starters (not named Cueto) couldn’t get out of the 5th inning, but it is certainly not like we were in dire need of a good LH reliever. Again, Marshall is BETTER than Bray, and maybe even significantly better, but it wasn’t really a hole that needed filling with a couple million extra dollars.
If the Reds don’t give up minor league players that I believe can be helpful in the future and/or they work out an extension for Marshall, I’ll like this deal. If we get him for one year and he walks, I won’t.
Folks, from everything I’ve read and heard there is ZERO chance of Homer Bailey pitching out the the bullpen, it simply takes him much much too long to get loose. It’s not going to happen, move on.
@Dave Lowenthal: When the strikeouts are cut in half?
@eric nyc: The difference is that Sean Marshall can actually pitch to (and K) right handed batters. Bill Bray is essentially a LOOGY.
This is what I have been saying. And he is out of options. So any idea what they are going to do with him?
@rayman5000: I think Marshall is the better pitcher, but both Bray’s splits last year were well above average. Possibly even elite…not even close to being a LOOGY.
@CP: I agree. The only reason people talk about him as a LLOGY is because that is the only way Dusty uses him for some reason. People on this board were clamoring all last season for him to be used more. I remember constantly shouting at my TV when Dusty would pull him after striking out one LH batter just so he could put in Masset to blow the game. Marshall is definitely an upgrade, but not one that will make enough difference in our record to justify blowing basically all the salary we freed up in the Latos deal.
@jrob45601: Unless another starting pitcher is acquired, I think this increases the likelihood that Chapman starts in AAA and Bailey begins in the rotation (unless Chapman has an unbelievable spring training).
Keep his innings as low as possible and then unleash the kraken in the second half/playoffs. I’d really hate to see Chapman pitch lights out during the regular season and then be unable to pitch in the playoffs.
So the Reds just acquired a guy who’ll absolutely lock down the eighth inning every other day in a contending year for a guy who might be needed should one or two of our starting pitchers go down for a short time, and people are complaining? Folks, that’s what the Andrew Brackmans and Dontrelle Willises of the world are for.
I wish we could acquire players as good as Marshall and Latos without giving up our quality young players, but the Reds don’t have the money to play in the premium free agent market. So they traded surplus assets (blocked prospects and seventh starters) for a 24-year-old potential ace and an affordable shutdown setup man.
Again, why is anyone complaining? Have we forgotten the past 12 months of Reds baseball already?
@eric nyc: $3 million is cheap for Marshall, who could very well be the closer after all. Any LF left on the market not named Beltran the Reds would bring in is a lateral/marginal upgrade over Heisey anyway (especially when you consider the money involved)…meaning Heisey was likely going to be the starter anyway.
The Reds most likely made the decision that the best places to focus on upgrading was the bullpen. I can’t fault them too much. I would go after Beltran, but perhaps the money just isn’t there.
@CP: If Marshall closes for $3 million then I really like the move. But if, like the reports are saying, that we’re bringing him in to stay a setup man and we still haven’t even figured out who our closer is then I dont’ get it. And I tend to believe the reports because apparently we resumed talks with Cordero.
@CP: I don’t see how the money isn’t there for Beltran if the Reds spend 3M on Marshall followed by 8M on Cordero. Let’s see how much Beltran actually gets. If he makes, say, 13M, then the Reds have done something very stupid in my mind. I’d personally rather give Bray the innings Marshall will get, give Wood the innings Bray will get, and have Beltran on the team, than have Marshall and freaking Cordero. I’m not in agreement about this small upgrade Beltran provides over Heisey at all.
@Travis G.: Well you definitely have a point, and I would say that probably close to 100% of us would agree that both trades make the 2012 Reds better. And that’s awesome.
The question is, how many years are you willing to lop off the future to make 2012 better? (How many cost-controlled “player-years,” I mean.) Both deals have lopped off many.
Granted, Travis Wood will never be an ace. But he might be a serviceable league-average guy.
Granted, there’s no guarantee that anyone we traded to San Diego would’ve (or could’ve) done anything here. But they might be pretty darn good.
I’m just starting to wonder how many future “player-years” (if I can call it that) it’s worth it to give away to enhance 2012?
@Dan: You’re really talking about two separate issues. In terms of how much I’d be willing to give up to enhance 2012 (and, really, 2013…let’s just call them the Votto Years) I’d say a whole lot. It is what it is. We’re a small market team and you’re only going to get a Joey Votto once in a generation. We need to try to win with him right now if we dont’ think we can re-sign him. So if we have to go back into rebuilding mode in 2014, so be it. But on the other side, it’s not like our farm system is totally gutted. As far as Wood goes, his ceiling is a #3 starter, and he’ll probably end up a pretty average 3-4 guy. Those kinds of pitchers aren’t that hard to find. We can start drafting SP’s next year and they should be near ready by 2014. Plus, if this whole plan backfires and we’re sitting in August of 2013 out of the playoff hunt, then we trade Votto at the deadline for a haul of prospects. I don’t think we’ve crippled the organization for a decade with these moves. We just cashed in on the stockpiling we’ve been doing for the last 4-5 years.
@Dan: I think the two deals are different. The first lopped off player years, but Alonso was redundant for the next 2 years, and Grandal for longer, and Boxberger’s a reliever.
The second is more of a classic win-now trade and there your question is a very good one to which there is no clear answer.
Any idea why Latos didn’t have to have a physical before the deal was done but Marshall does?
@dn4192: Could have as much to do with the “unnamed” minor league guys involved in the trade than anything involving Marshall.
I still believe the Reds could acquire Parra from the Dbacks for prospects that are not in our top 10. .292, will not require a platoon, 2011 Gold Glove.
I’ve been poking around looking at available free-agents and how would everyone feel about Andruw Jones to platoon with Heisey? He should be pretty cheap and he kills lefties.
It doesn’t excite me, but it probably does make sense. You’re right that Andruw rakes against lefties. (So does Cody Ross, an equally unexciting option.)
So I guess this Heisey reverse-platoon thing is real, huh? So bizarre. I wrote it off as a fluke after one season, but he repeated it again last year. Not quite sure what to make of it.
Fay is wondering if the Reds have an extension worked out with Marshall and that might be the reason for the physical.
that’s just dusty’s conventional wisdom BS, i don’t buy it. you have any other sources on that? teams tell fans whatever they can to explain their moves.
i’m betting if they told him that it was the pen or nothing, he’d be in for the pen. and closer’s have plenty of time to get loose! that’s the other thing. it’s not like he’d have to be ready in two seconds. start warming up in the 4th if you have to. if there are a few times during the year that you have to use someone else because he’s not ready, so what?
CoCo turns down $14M-$15M for two years and is now left waiting in the wings while the prices for closers continues to come down. At $10-$11M per year, I was a staunch & steadfast CoCo detractor. At $5M-$6M for 1 year or $9M-$10M for 2 years, I like the idea of bringing CoCo back as a full time closer, or even a little more if there are significant incentives built into the contract. Except for one week against the Brew Crew at the all star break, CoCo had an excellent year last year. His only problem now is age and nearing the end of a successful career. He came into 2011 spring training in much better condition than in 2010 and his improved results reflected that conditioning. Marshall is not taking Bray’s place in the bullpen; he is filling Massett’s set-up roll after Massett imploded last year. We now have two (count ‘em, two) oustanding, shut down relivers available in Bray & Marshall. This is VERY!!! good situation, albeit not completely Dusty-proof (:?) .
@BloodyHo: to me, the issue is that if coco comes back, he’s probably the third or 4th best reliever on the team, but he’s definitely going to close. if they don’t bring him back, then they’ll probably use the best reliever they have (marshall) as the closer.
if you think the closer should be the best reliever on the team, then bringing coco back gives dusty the ability to make that not happen. and he will take that opportunity.
Cards just signed Beltran for 2 years.
Just read that “according to Keith Law, Cubs receive Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt & Ronald Torreyes for Sean Marshall. Deal announced later today.” Unless they’ve got a reasonable extension with Marshall, this is a terrible deal.
One of the things I liked about the Latos deal was that we had him under control for a number of seasons, Marshall can walk after this year AND we’re trading 3 players that all have performed at high levels of the minors for one season of Marshall?
We’re looking to add OF depth and we trade Sappelt? And Torreyes is a ways away, but he’s a hitting machine and very good defensively.
Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes????!!!!!
For 1 year of Marshall? (75 good innings probably?)
[blank stare]
What am I missing here? This sounds like a laughably terrible deal to me.
I would have to wonder why a physical was required of Marshall but not Latos? Usually don’t teams get physical on traded players all the time?
Sappelt isn’t very good, and Torreyes might be sort of good one day. Wood will probably be sort of good for the next couple of years. Marshall is very, very good now.
Sorry, I hate the deal. A reliever? For one season?
This is such a ridiculous overpay it borders on insanity in my book. It doesn’t even pass the laugh test.
I bet Theo can’t believe Jocketty went for it.
Torreyes: .356/.398/.457 at Dayton this year, and he’s 19 years old.
Sappelt: Bad in the majors so far, but he’s hit .316/.374/.464 at AAA, and .361/.416/.548 at AA.
I mean, you can argue that minor leaguers who aren’t top-10 prospects probably aren’t going to be all that good all you want, and usually you’re right (sometimes you’re not)… but how far do you take it? I mean, you could trade the whole Dayton team for some half-decent reliever with that logic.
Jocketty has lost me with this one. Way too steep a price for way too small a current gain.
Apparently WJ and the powers that be made the assessment last year that Sappelt was an outstanding minor league hitter with limited potential at the major league level. This is probably true of Torreyes also, but since Sappelt has proven he can perform at every minor league level and Torreyes has started very strong in his 1st professional season last year, they are certainly worth a shot as major league potential. Without any sort of extension for Marshall, this deal looks like WJ is rolling the dice for 2012 and possibly 2013 then preparing to start over again.
Marshall is a proven stud reliever, which we desperately need…now. Just wondering, for those that are pissed about losing Sappelt, how many 4th outfielders do we need on this team? By all appearances, Sappelt maxed out at AAA, and he was overmatched when he got the call up to the league.
@rayman5000: Yes, he was overmatched… so far… at age 24. That seems way too early to pass judgment on the guy.
Anyway, Marshall is a stud, yes. I agree. I love his K/9 rates and his low HR totals. That part is awesome.
But it’s just an absurd overpay in my book. Even just Wood-for-Marshall I don’t feel great about. (Guys that are cheap and can go out there and get you 150-200 IP of, say, 4.20 ERA ball are not aces, of course, but they have significant value.)
Plus the fact that it’s only 1 year of Marshall still gets me.
I dunno… I’m pretty stumped on this one.
@Dan: It’s not the deal of the century, sure, but we have all been clamoring for SP and RP. Unfortunately, not being able to bid on free agents, we have to give up something to get something.