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Like others during the holiday season, the children of Redleg Nation have their hopes for the New Year – and wish lists.
It’s not that we’re ungrateful. We appreciate that Uncle Walt has already delivered a wonderful holiday present, The Boy with the Baseball Tattoo. That 6’6″ gift is wrapped with a bright Reds ribbon on top. We wait anxiously to open it on Saturday, April 7.
The boys and girls of Redleg Nation are truly grateful for that bounty. Yet is it unreasonable for us to want one more nice thing? If I were lucky enough to be chosen by our baseball family to ask for another goodie, I’d snuggle up right next to Uncle Walt and whisper in his ear the name Carlos Beltran.
Prior to Latos Day, I’d assumed the Reds would be spending scarce new salary dollars on James Shields. But now that it turns out our new top-shelf starting pitcher will work this year for league minimum, and we have the paychecks of Volquez and Alonso to spend, I’ve looked more ambitiously at whom the Reds might hire to roam left-field at GABP.
Criteria: A player with success batting in the clean-up spot, solid defensive skill, pop in his bat, a great OBP, and playoff experience. And, to make the team’s manager happy, one who hits from the right side of the plate.
Carlos Beltran fits perfectly. In 1200+ career plate appearances batting fourth, his slash stats are .293/.378/.513. Playing for the Mets and Giants last year he hit .300/.385/.525. Beltran, at age 34, can also play CF and RF, if necessary. Imagine the pitches he’d see batting between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.
So where does Beltran’s free agency stand now? Here’s a hot-off-the-internets summary. The case for signing him in this Fangraphs report notes the market for Beltran has been “strangely thin.” A one or two-year contract sounds possible from his side.
And while the notion of “sticking it” to one’s opponent probably isn’t consistent with the spirit of the holiday season, another positive outcome would be keeping him neatly away from the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re the team with a giant (Pu)hole in their lineup, brought on Angelic wings to the NL Central.
Sadly, Beltran’s salary doesn’t come close to fitting in our current budget. Uncle Walt would have to talk to Uncle Bob about this present, because unlike Mat Latos, Carlos Beltran would cost serious cabbage.
But Redleg Nation kids can dream, can’t we? Especially at this miraculous time of year.
And pssst, Uncle Walt and Uncle Bob, it’s the Cardinals. Remember them?
I’ll contribute by buying some extra produce. Hey, I never really thought we’d get a top of the rotation guy this offseason, so maybe my Christmas dreams can come true…..
I had the same thought, Steve. Plugging Beltran into LF and into the #4 hole would round things out very nicely. OBP, slugging, and defense. Maybe even remnants of some speed. Great, well-rounded player.
Cards are apparently serious about signing CoCo Crisp. .264/.314/.379 w/49 SB last year.
So they might be out on Beltran? Weird.
Love the idea! Cincy might just become a destination rather than a launching pad for careers. If you add Beltran then you have to think the Reds offense might just be crazy. What would Votto do? With that kind of cover you have to pitch to him-yikes. The question might be the upside of Heisey- will it be diminished due to playing time or do you trade him?
Heisey would be a great fourth OF. Can play all three positions and an excellent pinch hitter. He or Beltran could DH in interleague games.
It shouldn’t be that far out of range, right? We surpassed $80 million last year… I think Beltran would put us just over again.
That sounds right. But it would leave us no money for a closer. We could either settle on an internal candidate or put together a trade where we brought in a cheap closer from somewhere.
I really, really doubt the Reds would give him the 2/$30mil he’s looking for.
Odd thing is that in a market where Jason Kubel gets 2/$15mil, and Cuddyer is worth 3/$30mil, Beltran seems a bargain. Admittedly, he’s got some risk.
I’m kind of torn on this one. You trade for Beltran and the Reds have $0 payroll flexibility. I’d be excited if they picked him up, but a deal would almost guarantee either BP or Votto was gone next year (unless the Reds won the WS or something).
@CP: That would basically just be a stopgap for Craig? If not, then they’re just plain stupid.
@CP: You’re right, but if they could get Beltran for 2 years and 25M, I think you do it and ask questions later. That would be an amazing deal. Good lord, the Reds would be good.
It’ll never happen.
i think walts thinking some splash. He wants to get people excited, and this would do it.
that being said, i think he’s going to go after a closer, and then focus on lf. Not what i would do, just the vibe i get from hearing him talk and reading reports.
still though, getting beltran and putting him 4 would do wonders. if only for a few months, because im not sure the guys been extremely healthy? I dont know specifics, just that he has missed some serious time.
Maybe you go after Andrew Bailey instead and roll into training camp with Heisey, Frazier, Phipps and Sappelt(although i doubt we get Bailey without dealing one of these puppies) and check out what happens.
@Dave Lowenthal: Funny thing is that I’d be all for it if they chose the right player to get rid of. I like the Latos deal but my confidence in WJ extends only so far.
Last season when I clamored for Beltran and said this offense was set to underwhelm, I was hit with jeers…
Last season he would have cost a couple prospects for a couple months, and probably wouldn’t have gotten us into the playoffs anyway. After the trade for Latos, this team should be “all-in,” and signing a free agent is a lot different than a deadline trade. No prospects to give up, and you get the player for the full season. I have concerns about his ability to stay healthy, but I think the Reds have outfield depth to make it worth the risk. Because the reward could be very large indeed.
Yeah, it cost the Giants Zack Wheeler + the remaining part of Beltran’s $18 million contract. Outside of Mesoraco, Grandal, and Hamilton, the Reds didn’t/still don’t really have a Zack Wheeler in their system (top 50 but declining but still significant upside). Closest thing probably would be Homer Bailey but 2011 Homer Bailey < 2007 Homer Bailey. If they had traded Grandal for him, they never would have gotten Latos…
@secondguessingfanbase: I think it’s pretty clear (and the comments from CP make it clear) that trading for Beltran last year would have been a terrible idea. The Reds did not have a matching piece, and to give up one of the prospects they just gave up to get Latos would have been idiotic. Beltran would have gotten them nowhere.
Now, things are completely different. Beltran doesn’t even cost a draft pick. Full season. Apparently, his price is falling.
Unless you’re going to tell me you have inside info that the Reds could have gotten Beltran for some nobody, it just didn’t make sense.
I was beating the Beltran drum before the season started last year and even with the deadline, there are such happenings as being traded to be extended.
Beltran had to waive a trade clause as it is, so it’s not out of the realm that he could have waived the clause in exchange for serious contract talks before the season was over. Beltran is only getting older and teams realize that; signing before the end of the year might have been intriguing to him especially with the nucleus the Reds have. Even if the Reds sent the Mets Alonso and Boxberger, the team would still have had the pieces to acquire a Mat Latos.
Last spring, Beltran was coming off a poor, injury-plagued season in 2010. He’d been injured in 2009, too. And he was on a $19+ million/year contract.
The case for him now as a free agent, after his strong, healthy 2011, is much better. That said, I’d still offer him no more than 2/20 or 1/12.
Scoring runs hasn’t been the problem, and fixing a non-problem with a brittle 34 year old who’s going to command market value goes against everything this franchise has been trying to do. Pass.
i’m with you. heisey can put up a 3 win season given the playing time, and you can’t expect beltran to repeat his 4.7 from last season. his babip was 20 points higher than his career avg, and he’s gonna be 35. it’s possible he does it again, but you can’t expect it.
so i think really you’re talking about a 1 win difference, and that doesn’t seem worth the money and risk. for $10mil sign roy oswalt or edwin jaskson. sign ryan madson even.
also, jocketty has been pretty explicit that he’s not gonna even spend $7mil on an outfielder, so this is sort of a moot point.
I’d love to have Beltran, but not unless he drops his price tag significantly.
I wonder what it would cost to acquire Michael Taylor from the A’s? He seems to have lost his prospect luster at 26, but he might be a good change-of-scenery/late bloomer type of hitter like Juan Rivera or Carlos Pena. He kind of stunk in 2010, but he brought his ISO back in line with his minor league career norms last season. Of course, he might literally be the only OF on the A’s 40-man roster right now.
If you have hesitations on Beltran, this Fangraphs article should help…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-strangely-thin-beltran-market/
The article mentions 1yr/$12M or 2yr/$10M. This seems very reasonable to me, and if his price ever gets to 1yr/$10M I’d be very disappointed if the Reds don’t give him a serious look. And as Steve mentioned, perhaps an even greater incentive is to keep him away from the Cardinals.
Sorry, that should have been 2yr/$20M (i.e. $10M each year)
@Steve Mancuso: He’s basically saying that he was beating the drum for the Reds to expand their payroll to $95-10 million range last year. Which is nice but not really relevant to the 2012 Reds.
@Steve Mancuso: A 1 year, 12M contract would be a major coup. Castellini ought to, if he’s really worried about money, look at this as a multi-year expenditure. Pay less in 2014 if you must, and front some expenses now. I think Beltran would be pretty stupid to take such a deal, though.
what about johnny damon? i know heisey doesn’t have traditional splits, but heisey could play center against tough righties and damon could play left, since stubbs splits were atrocious last year.
he seems like the type of clubhouse vet that the reds are talking about getting, and i think he’d be a good addition. he’s still an above average hitter.
another option: trade for bobby abreu. he’s stated that a trade would be good since he’s not really going to play now that the angels have pujols. he’s not great, but it probably wouldn’t take much to get him and get the angels to pay him, and he still gets on base like crazy and steals a lot.
I think even if Chris Heisey just does what he has done in limited playing time over a season, when you factor in the defense and all, you probably get more out of him over Abreu or Damon. I liked both of those guys over the years but it’s a little late and you are going to pay for the name more than the production.
I’d think the Reds would be better to deal for a bat as the season goes on, depending on how things shake out, unless something substantial becomes possible.
I think like Abreu or Damon – Beltran is a better fit for an AL club where they can use him 20-40 games as a DH over a year.