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It’s an off-day, so here’s an open thread to discuss whatever you want, Reds-related or not. A suggested topic:
There are 35 games remaining in the 2011 season. The Reds are 62-65, third place in the NL Central, 13.5 games behind Milwaukee, five behind second-place St. Louis.
Question: does it matter to you if the Reds finish .500 or above? How much would you like to see the Reds to finish above St. Louis, or do you care at all?
Reds will win this divsion. Epic meltdown by the brew crew and an unbelievable win streak by the good guys…we’ll make the post season this year. BELIEVE
I’m not one to judge, but it’s a little early to be that drunk, don’t you think?
If they finish above .500, then the FO can rationalize bringing most of the players, coaches, and Dusty back without many changes. They’ll say it was an off year or some other such nonsense, and they’ll stay the course.
If they finish below .500, then that’ll be three losing seasons out of four under Dusty Baker, and it’ll be high time for change. Not that it’ll happen, but it’ll be high time.
I’d actually like to see a winning season, but not for the above reasons. It’s cold comfort, mostly.
I hope they lose out so the organization feels compelled to fire Dusty Baker and his coaches. This organization needs an infusion of intelligence and competence at the management level or the window of opportunity to win with this young talent will close.
I hope the Reds win every game and the Cards lose every game.
But because that won’t happen, I’d like the see the Reds finish strong and the Cards simply not reach the postseason.
Finishing in 2nd place above the WLB will make me happy.
Whatever will make Baker look worse. He is not the manager for this team. They need a more proactive manager who can make logical strategic decisions that can be justified by more than just “the match-ups looked good”. I am also not opposed to replacing Jocketty, although I am not as angered by his ideas than I am at Baker’s
Also, I asked this on another thread, but never got any info. Why did the Reds release Phil Valliquette?
I’d like to respond to the Mike Leake comments made in the TSR yesterday. People were saying that because he is only in his second year of pro ball, he is likely to get X amount better. People forget that already being at the highest level, he has much less room to improve compared to a second year player in A or AA ball. What I mean is you could take players of a similar age/experience who are in the minors who are dominant there, call them up, and have them post similar(maybe even better in some cases) numbers to leake. Yes some would be less impressive. Other clubs have chosen to let these players develope at their own pace in the minors. Given the same opportunity, they would perform around the same level as Leake. I like leake, but I think we stunted his growth by not letting him develop further in the minors. Give someone with his polish a few years to further perfect their approach, and you can obtain another Tom glavine. (Maddux is a bad comp because he threw 93-94 when he was younger, which leake can’t).
Players who I think compare well in my hypothesis:
Name(org)/(age second season/now)/(ERA highest level second season/now)
Shelby Miller(STL)
Drew Pomeranz(COL)
Jameson Taillon (PIT)
Zack Wheeler (NYM)
Why can’t a player improve on the major league level?
Sorry iT wouldn’t let my copy the stats frotm bbref on my iPhone. Short story:first two support my theory, second to do not but come from pitchers considered to have better stuff thaN leake
If you don’t finish in first what does it matter? Neither Dusty or Walt are going NOT be back next year and the only thing they may do is change a coach here or there, but the “leadership” of this team is safe for another year.
I’d like to see the Reds finish strong, which at this point would mean over .500. A terrible finish would serve better as a wakeup call to Castellini, but it’s how I feel. If I had any confidence that a bad finish would shorten Dusty’s tenure, it would be a big consolation, but I don’t. I believe he’s managing the Reds at the start of 2012, good finish or bad.
I don’t much care whether the Reds finish ahead of the Cardinals.
I’m mainly looking to 2012. The most obvious thing to do this month is to trade Ramon. The Reds need a whole lot more pitching depth in 2012, a good start would be getting an arm (or anything of value) for Ramon. I’m looking forward to seeing Mesoraco in September, but who knows how much he’ll play if Ramon is still around.
From what I’ve seen of our AAA call ups so far, Cozart looks like a player and Alonso looks like a hitter. Frazer has some pop and could have the makings of a supersub. Sappelt is raw, but has some tools.
It would be good to learn more about Alonso and Sappelt in September but we probably won’t, especially with Heisey coming off the DL. At least let Alonso give Joey a day off now and then.
I’m not saying he can’t improve, what I meant to say is that by the time a player reaches the majors, his room for improvement is less than someone in the minors. Think of it like ratings in a video game. If the highest is 99, and leake is an 85, and Player A is a 75, who has more room for improvement? And those other guys who may not have been as polished as leake at draft time, may have caught up, you just can’t compare because they are still in the minors. Being in the minors doesn’t mean you’re not ready to be a major leaguer(that kid from Atlantas AA team comes to mind). Sometimes the organization just feels it’s best to let a pitcher develope further.
I’m not sure I follow. I mean, whether he’s in Cincinnati or in Louisville or in Carolina, he’d still be Mike Leake. Putting him in AA or AAA today wouldn’t change him from being an “85″ to being a “75,” to use your rating system.
I mean, I don’t know how player development works, of course, b/c I’m just some dude at a computer. But I do know that putting Leake at a different level wouldn’t change who he is or where he is on his development curve. Right? Am I misunderstanding your point?
@brm7675: I agree.
Do you offer Dontrelle Willis a MLB deal and a spot on the 40-man roster for next year? Is he in our rotation?
From what I’ve seen, I’d say yes! He’s impressed me.
And what the heck do you do with Aroldis Chapman? Are we EVER going to try him as a starting pitcher? We’re basically using him as a sideshow short reliever, and the truth is, he’s the only guy we’ve got who could be a true, shutdown, #1 ace. (I’m not saying that he definitely would be. I don’t know, of course. But he could. It’s possible he could go toe-to-toe with someone like Roy Halladay in game 1 of a playoff series and keep us in the game.)
And he was a starting pitcher on the Cuban team, right?
We HAVE to try stretching him out at some point, don’t we?
I think the main noticeable difference between the 2011 Reds and a team that is built to go deep in the playoffs is a dominant #1 ace starting pitcher… and it’s possible we HAVE one and we just won’t use him that way.
A) I think the Reds see him as Co-Co’s replacement
B) So what do you view Cueto as?
A. You may be right about that, and if so, I think it would be a big waste of some amazing talent. (If Chapman is as good as I think he might be, you want 170-200 innings of that, not 60 innings of that.)
B. I think Cueto is a very good starting pitcher, but still, no Halladay. Chapman’s potential is WAY higher than Cueto’s. If Chapman could be a #1, with Cueto at #2, Bailey at #3, Leake at #4, with Willis/Wood/Volquez duking it out for #5, that looks really good to me. That looks like a “deep into October” rotation.
@cliff:
If a player’s talent are such that having them in the minors would not improve but might hurt their growth I think you have to put them on the ML roster. With Leake it’s not like he didn’t pitch well enough to get the shot and overall has done well. I am kinda unsure how being in AA or AAA over the past year or so would have helped more then being on teh major league level and learning how to get major league hitters out over minor league hitters.
Just browsing through the posts here, and I couldn’t care less where the Reds finish in the standings. If I thought it would tick off the Cardinals to finish below us, then maybe I’d care. But if they don’t make a strong run to get back in the race, finishing ahead of us won’t be much consolation.
Blame the Reds players for not hitting with runners in scoring position, blame the bullpen for breakdowns at critical times, especially blame Dusty Baker for bonehead moves (like putting on a suicide squeeze play and just assuming the scoreboard had the count wrong — I still can’t believe THAT happened) and his poor decision-making in general, but wherever the majority of blame lies, the bottom line is to find out what we have for next season. ….. I only wish Dusty would not be around next season to play his vaunted matchups and poor strategies into another frustrating season. I fear that in March I’m going to hear about a promotion like Fred Lewis Bobblehead Night in early September, and if the guy gets off to a rough start, we’ll be saddled with him all next season as a result. Mr. .175-hitting Jonny Gomes sure worked out well for us, didn’t he? Right up until two days AFTER his Bobblehead Night, when he was gone. So what’s the priority again?
Sorry to ramble, but frustrating, frustrating season, because expectations were so high. I have a much, much better understanding now of why it is that Giants and Cubs fans were so happy to see Dusty Baker leave town.
I noted today that the Reds are only 23 wins away from 10,000 all-time franchise wins. They will be the sixth team to reach that mark. If only they could do it this year.
I’m not sure if this has been mentioned previously anywhere (I’ve kinda been traveling since the beginning of July) but I just read the article by John Eradi in the Enquirer (online) about Corky Miller. I think it’s a fantastic read. Great pictures too. If you haven’t read it yet, I highly recommend it. I would love to see the Reds organization offer Corky a coaching job somewhere after he finishes his playing career.
First off, the BeerMakers are on an historic run. It probably won’t literally match the 51-9 streak put up by the 1975 Reds because it comes at a time in the season when the BMs are likely to throttle back themselves ahead of that mark and rest some guys for the playoffs. However it is of that ilk in its impact on the divisional race.
Much as I hate it when I hear it said by others, it is true; sometimes you just have to take off your hat and tip it to the other guy.
Tactically here is likely nothing that the Reds could have done as individuals or as organization which would have stood up to a run like the BM’s have pulled off. This is underscored by the fact that the Reds haven’t even played the BMs during the run and in fact hold a clear winning advantage in the games played between the two squads.
The message for the Reds should be to seize the window of opportunity in front of them in 2012 and 2013 and not to fritter it away or give it away looking, worrying or planning beyond that.
By this standard the only really core untouchables are Votto, Phillips, and Cueto becasue they have shown the ability to dominant and be among the best at their positions in MLB. Bruce, Chapman, and Leake are close to this status but available in only THE right really big deal. Nobody else as a position a player or a pitcher has shown at the MLB level that they can be even for a week or month a dominant player at the MLB level and thus they all are available if needed for a deal to get a player who has demostrated he can be dominant. And this group includes the “kids” such as Alonso and Mesoraco. They don’t go cheaply but if need be in a can’t miss deal they can be had.
Finally the chaos at the management level has to be resolved. The management level includes everybody above the line coaches. Dusty, Walt, Mr Castellini himself and the people they supervise who by virtue of their duties could also be stirring the pot.
I’ve been around enough business organizations to recoginize true organizational dysfunction when I see it; and, that’s what we’ve seen with the Reds since at least around mid June. I’m convinced that a lot of the shenanigans we’ve seen are passive agressive behavior which mark such conflicts and dysfunction. Yes, even in very public settings individuals are still individuals and act like they do in family and small private business settings if they are allowed to, or since we aren’t privy to know, if they can because they are the boss.
So that’s my take.
Crap …. Erardi.
Cueto has been awesome, but to be honest, he’s been lucky too. He’s not going to repeat at this level.
Here are Cueto’s career BABIP’s (batting averages on balls in play):
2008 – .303
2009 – .294
2010 – .295
2011 – .230
He’s very good (and I love the new Tiant-esque delivery), but he’s just not likely to be THIS good again. No one in baseball can sustain a .230 BABIP. That’s crazy-low. So as much as I like him, I don’t view him as a true ace.
Chapman, however, has true ace potential. If the Reds ever let him try starting, that is. (That was my point with all that.)
I’d like to see the Reds finish strong at least over .500, but it would be cool to at least catch the Cardinals.
That said, they got to play some of the kids to see what they got. I don’t have anything against Fred Lewis, but there is no reason that he should be starting now at all. Cairo has been great, but really they should also just let Frazier play and see what he can do for a week or two. When Sep 1st gets here they should try some others at short and maybe in center.