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Aroldis Chapman warms up on St. Patrick's Day, 2010 in Goodyear, AZ. (Photo: Steve Mancuso)
Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman were highly accomplished 22-year-olds when they arrived as rookies to the Reds’ brand new Spring Training complex in Goodyear, in February 2010.
Leake, as a junior the previous year at Arizona State, compiled a 16-1 record with a 1.71 ERA. He (not Stephen Strasburg) was named 2009 National Player of the Year by the American Baseball Coaches Association and was also a first-team All-American and Academic All-American.
Chapman had already twice led the legendary Cuban professional league in strike outs. He had been named the top left-handed pitcher in the 2007 IBAF World Baseball Cup, where Chapman had struck out twenty batters in fifteen innings. His fastball had reportedly been clocked at over 100 mph.
Chapman’s early 2010 Spring Training performance put him squarely on track for the fifth spot in the Reds’ starting rotation, likely edging out Leake and Travis Wood. However, a minor injury set Chapman back a few weeks, giving Mike Leake the opportunity to begin the season on the big league roster as a starter. Both Chapman and Leake had looked similarly commanding in their inaugural Goodyear camp.
Since then, the Reds have logged nearly 2,100 regular season innings and, as you would expect, the best players see the most playing time. Joey Votto has been in the field almost every inning; so have Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs, when healthy. Bronson Arroyo has pitched 369 of the innings since Opening Day 2010, around eighteen percent of the total.
But how much have those 22-year-old pitchers played?
Mike Leake has pitched 277 innings, about thirteen percent of the Reds total.
Aroldis Chapman has pitched 50.2 innings.
To repeat, since spring of 2010, when Chapman appeared headed for the starting staff, the Reds have played 2,100 innings and Aroldis Chapman has pitched in two percent of them.
Over that same time, the Reds have given Yonder Alonso, Zack Cozart, Chris Valaika, Juan Francisco and Dave Sappelt more playing time than Aroldis Chapman.
Jim Edmonds played fifty-six innings for the Reds. That’s right, WLB Jim freakin’ Edmonds has played more innings for the Reds than Aroldis Chapman.
Jordan Smith has pitched 62 innings for the Reds since March 2010.
I’m pretty sure Dusty Baker had Aaron Harang pitch 50 innings in one week.
To the organization’s credit, Aroldis Chapman has seen more playing time for the Reds than Willie Bloomquist, who played thirty-eight innings for the team last September.
Counterfactuals can be interesting and maddening. If Chapman hadn’t tweaked his back in March 2010, maybe he would be the one with nearly three hundred innings pitched. Instead of fifty.
And it would be Mike Leake that the Reds would be grossly mismanaging.
Very well said, Steve. While improved from the not-so-distant past, there are still some serious flaws to the Reds player development process.
Another train of thought regarding the use of Chapman. Where might the Reds be in the standings had someone in this organization have had the balls to insert him into the rotation last spring? 67 – 60? 72 – 55?
Beautifully summarized, Steve. One wonders what the hell the long-term plan is with Aroldis? Has any reporter asked that question recently?
Great, great post.
I guess it comes down to what the Reds have in mind for Chapman, and weather we like it or not, they have more access to information about Chapman then we do and for whatever reason they have decided he better suited for work out of the bullpen and next year as the closer over being a starter. Unless we have all the same information available to us that Walt and company has, we have to go with the idea that they know what they are doing.
@brm7675: I hope the “Weather” don’t have much to do with it… but I think they are seriously messing out on talent and mismanaging the pitching staff. Has anybody went back to read the posts around the hiring of Bryan Price, they are interesting. I think most of Redleg Nation will agree to this, we need an organizational change, starting with Dusty and Bryan Price. I would be even interested in seeing what upgrades are out there over Jockety. Yes, he helped create some good teams with St. Louis, but the game has changed since then, you just swung for the fences before. Now more than ever this game is built around pitching, oba, and defense as to many games are decided by 2 runs or less.
I have given up on this year. Yeah I would love to see them go on some huge streak and the Brewers just fall apart, but I’m not holding my breath for that fantasy. Let’s develop our youth and bring in a managerial staff that can produce with the young talent we have; while we have it
@jwm0809: What’s wrong with Price?
I don’t quite get the whole if they just let Chapman start he would be a world beater. I don’t get why the Reds are not giving him a shot as a starter, but he didn’t pitch that well as a starter in Louisville last year and completely froze up for a month this year and couldn’t the zone at all.
Whoever is in the know with the Reds have given up on Chapman as a starter. It is obvious from this year they don’t think Chapman has what it takes to be a starter but think he can be a great reliever. Are they wrong? Heck I don’t know. By track record, it doesn’t look like he is anywhere close to being a pro starter, then again you are not going to get there being used as a loogy or a one inning reliever. The guy is going to be the closer next year – mark it down, that’s the Reds plan and probably has been since late last year.
Mike Leake to me already looks like a vet as a starter. The guy knows what he can do and kind of stays within his game. I don’t know if Leake will be much better than what he is now, but I will believe it if he is still at it in a decade.
I disagree. I think that rather than “giving up” on him, the Reds eyes got big when the playoffs became real in 2010, and they had a weapon to deploy. That made sense. When expectations for the same outcome were placed on 2011, they were pigeon-holed into either going back to starter or keeping things the same. Who knows how those conversations went, but we know what the outcome was.
There is just no harm in at all in trying this out. Great post Steve.
Chapman’s last (unsuccessful) appearance as a reliever offers as much of an argument as to why he might not be an effective starter as his successful ones offer as to why he might be an outstanding starter.
In that appearance he couldn’t throw his slider for strikes; and, he was lacking just enough hop on his fastball to get it by good hitters. I’d guess he got burned on two pitches he threw right about where he wanted them. It can be glossed over as luck; but, two top flight hitters beat him by fighting the pitches off for hits.
We know that when he is used in such a way that his fast ball has full hop he is overpowering because guys can’t catch up with his fastball; and they chase the slider when it is borderline to out of the zone.
My issue all along has been that he isn’t going to throw 98MPH+ for 6 or 7 innings. What is going to happen when he is pacing himself? I fear his poor outings may provide more insight into that situation than his short overpowering stints.
Because they have needed him in the pen the last two years, they may have crossed the Rubicon with him and be committed to using him in the pen unless they want to commit to using him as a starter at AAA for an extended period next year.
I think that, at some point last year, looking at how he was (or was not) developing as a starter, and knowing that CoCo would be gone in another year, they decided to groom him as a closer. You might argue that they planned for Masset to fill that role, but then maybe they didn’t have that much confidence in him, and wanted a Plan B. Looking at what’s happening to Masset as of late, plan on Plan B next year. Since I know that we won’t be seeing Chapman as a starter, anytime soon, and there’s really nothing riding on these final games, other than pride, I would very much like to see some more of Chapman closing (so I can at least feel somewhat better about THAT position for 2012).
Uh, maybe because Chapman’s walked 30 guys this year in 37.1 IP? (Leake has 34 in 138.2 innings.) Chapman is very talented and very raw. Sandy Koufax didn’t get below 5 BB/IP until his age 25 season, and only then did he really become Sandy Koufax. At age 25, Mariano Rivera was a rookie, walking 4/9IP and allowing 11 HR in 67 innings.
You could do the “innings played” trick with any reliever. Mariano Rivera, in the Yankees’ 2009 World Series year, pitched 66.1 innings. Utility infielder Ramiro Pena played 145 innings. Whoop-de-doo.
Nobody in the United States thinks less of the “Closer” role than I do. The Reds should begin stretching Chapman out with an eye towards getting about 125 innings out of him next year. But if he continues to have 7 BB/9IP, he isn’t going to be a very good starter, nor will he get to the 6th inning very often.
The Pirates lucked out a bit on him the other day, but it did highlight how he isn’t as good out of the stretch–just one of several things he needs to improve upon.
Fair enough. Does it bother you that someone like Matt Belisle has pitched 149.2 innings between 2010 and 2011 Chapman has not?
No, because Belisle has pitched 57 innings this year and has 11 walks. Chapman pitched 26 innings in the minors this year, so he’s actually pitched more innings overall than Belisle has. Chapman pitched 95 innings last year at Louisville, so he’s thrown much more than “50.2 innings.”
Chapman wasn’t ready for starting when he turned into a complete mess early this year, nor was he last year when he struggled as a reliever at Louisville. If they had tried to start Chapman in the majors any time until about a month ago, it would have been a disaster. He’s clearly gotten better as this season progressed, but even on Saturday, his 2 walks opened the door for the dink hits to hurt the team. He’s probably now ready to be extended, and I’m guessing that’s what the Reds will do.
I’m not buying the “Chapman has been misused” theory. Everybody in baseball knew that he was rough and raw and needed time. Frankly, that’s why the Reds were able to sign him. If he had been major league ready when they signed him, he’d be on the Dodgers or Yankees or Red Sox. The Reds, in fact, were criticized in some quarters for paying too much for a guy with so many question marks.
That should be struggled as a starter last year in Louisville.
Chapman threw 13 innings in the minors, so he’s only thrown 50 innings this year, less than Belisle.
We can sit and debate this all we want but actions speak louder then words. The Reds may not be saying it, but Chapman will be our closer come next season.