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I don’t understand the Reds management. And I’m not even sure how much of the problem is on the field and how much of it is in the front office.
I realize that Yonder Alonso presents a problem. He’s blocked at his best position, first base, by the reigning MVP of the league. So, in the short term at least, he’s not going to play there and if he’s as good offensively as the Reds seem to believe he is, they need to find somewhere to play him.
So, someone in the organization, I would assume Walt Jocketty and his staff, made the decision before the season to play him in LF in AAA this year. He played 62 games in LF (21 at 1B and 10 at DH). One could only presume that this was done to give him a place to play when they felt he was ready offensively (and, to a lesser extent, defensively) for the big leagues.
On July 26th, the club made the decision that he was ready for the big leagues.
On a team in a tailspin that has erased any reasonable chance of a return to the playoffs, in 12 games since his call up, he’s started 3.
In his time with the big club, he’s 8 for 16, with 2 walks, 0 strikeouts and an OPS of 1.368. (Yes, I know, small sample size, but my point is that he’s performed when given the opportunity.)
How has he been in LF? Pretty brutal. In his 3 games, he’s misplayed balls in each game.
When asked if Alonso would play LF again, Baker said, “Not in the near future.” This comes from a guy that ran Jonny Gomes out to LF for the better part of a year and half.
So the Reds answer? Work him out at 3B, where he played in high school and very early in his college career. John Fay says that the “experiment at third is about to begin”. He was working there Monday, though, according to Fay quoting Baker, he won’t play there anytime soon.
“You don’t want to do it in the big leagues, but that’s the position he started at. It’s a mirror image of first base really.” “We’ll see. We’re trying to find the best place to get his bat in the lineup.”, said the Reds manager.
(This is in addition to the fact that the Reds have another #1 draft pick who is playing 3B (part time) for the Reds right now (Frazier) and a player just back from rehab that’s playing 3B in Louisville that the club has been touting for 2 years, singing his praises about his offensive abilities (Francisco) to the consternation of many of us.)
The article even talks about moving Votto to LF, which he sounds resistant to.
Does this make any sense to anyone? Is this yet another example of Jocketty and Baker being, not just on different pages, but in different volumes?
If the Reds want to have him doing extra defensive work, wouldn’t it make more sense to do it in LF where he’s been playing all season?
Wouldn’t it make more sense to have him out there with Billy Hatcher and Eric Davis running until his legs fall off?
What is the point in working him at 3B if he’s not going to “want to do it in the big leagues”? If you want him to learn to play 3B, send him to instructional ball in the winter.
Why call him up if you’re not going to play him?
Maybe I need another Redleg Nation Podcast Rant….day by day I become more convinced that at least one of Jocketty and/or Baker needs to go.
That’s not even a debatable point. If Jocketty and Baker aren’t seeing eye to eye on personnel issues, one of them HAS to go. You just can’t run an organization wants to do something and acts accordingly, then the field manager refuses to implement the plan and leaves a top prospect with a big bat rotting on the bench burning service time.
Of course the best way to organize a franchise is with the GM in charge giving orders and the field manager going along with the plan. I don’t get the sense that that’s how Dusty roles, however.
My take is simple…. Alonso has looked much worse in left in the majors than he actually is. Don’t take that to mean he is good out there, because he isn’t. But he isn’t nearly as bad as he has looked either. If he were truly that bad, there is no way that he would have played out there every day in Louisville. For Dusty to make up his mind in a span of 3 games rather than listen to the developmental people on it who have seen him out there for over 80 games…. well, its very Dusty Baker of him. He gets an idea of what someone is and the first chance that player has to prove him right, proves him right.
Looks to me like Jocketty’s intent as well as the organization as a whole is to play him in LF, and Baker has decided against it. The guy clearly doesn’t have the foot speed to be effective out there. He makes Gomes and Dunn look like good fielders.
We have a very crowded situation at 3B and LF now. Rolen, Frazier, Francisco at 3rd and Heisey, Alonso, Sappelt, in left. That’s if you believe Drew Stubbs isn’t expendable.
As mentioned, this is a sample size of three games we are talking about. Since this offseason, this team has suffered because of the inability of the manager and GM to work in harmony.
1. Fred Lewis signed as an alternate leadoff option – that has happened what, 3x all season and not once in the preseason?
2. Renteria signed to shore up the ‘left side’ of the infield. ER says he doesn’t do 3rd (his agent probably alluded otherwise to get him the contract) and Dusty never makes him try.
3. Prospects – Cozart – he got massive time only b/c ER was HBP and sore. – Frazier – he has played only b/c Rolen is out indefinitely and Cairo is ailing from all the PT – Alonso – he is only here b/c Gomes is gone – Sappelt – owes his time to an injured Heisey.
There is not a single instance of this manager taking a prospect and awarding limited performance with playing time over a vet. Every case of PT has been extenuating circumstances.
WJ and DB have been derelict in their duties but the onus falls on Dusty to use the parts he is given. Instead he is using old screw drivers to try and nail together a winning season while new hammers languish to the side.
Well, that’s not exactly true. Janish isn’t a youngster, but he was given the starting job over Renteria. And when Janish proved totally incapable with the bat, they brought in Cozart. Renteria has played more than I preferred, but he’s playing less than he could have.
Cairo is currently sitting behind Frazier and Janish, while Rolen and BP are out. And Cairo’s hitting well.
Stubbs has the second most AB on the team.
Heisey has played more than Fred Lewis.
Hanigan plays as much as Hernandez.
All data points showing that Dusty isn’t the blind, willful killer of young careers. Is he a good manager? Not really. But the problem isn’t exactly how you define it.
————
One the bigger point, I agree 100% with everything Bill wrote. And I’d add this: The failure to turn Hernandez and Cordero into value is Jocketty’s failure. Add that to the utter inaction over the off-season, and it’s not been an impressive year for Ol’ Walt.
Exactly. I think there is an overreaction to Alonso’s defensive play. He must have not been that bad at Louisville or Rick Sweet would have told management. Baker has way too much authority given to him.
I look at it like this. If the Reds had been winning when Alonso was recalled, Dusty would say, We can’t break up our momentum now. So Alonso would sit…………….With us losing, and apparently Dusty is the ONLY ONE who thinks we’re still a contender, Alonso still has to sit, because, gee, we can’t trust his defense, etc.
Either way, Alonso sits. GIMME A BREAK
Oh, and regarding Dusty’s defensiveness on Monday night about his choice of Lewis in left field, that’s just plain shameful arrogance. When Jim Kelch asked him politely about his reasoning for starting Lewis over Sappelt, etc., Dusty says something like, “First of all, I’m tired of being asked to explain myself about left field. Everybody always wants the next guy. With Gomes, it was Heisey, then Alonso, and on and on.” Not an exact quote, mind you, but close enough that we get the flavor of this arrogant man…………..
You know what, Dusty? Kelch was asking what fans want to know. If you don’t want to answer, then don’t. (He did eventually say he wanted Lewis in there because he was 7-for-9 lifetime against that night’s Rockies starter.) But fans want to know what’s going on, too.
The season has been sad enough without Mr. 10 Games Out of First Place taking that kind of attitude.
Just for the record (and this is not meant as a bang on Fred Lewis), but Dusty’s magic “he’s 7-9″ got him an 0-2 with a walk from Lewis. Wrong choice again, Dusty.
Yeah, and as my friend Mike the Lurker (who won’t post here) reminded me last night, 7-for-9 probably is more of a reflection of the law averages waiting to catch up than anything else!!!!
The second half of Baker’s rationale for having Sappelt paint instead of play made even less sense. He wanted Sappelt to have a chance to get settled in and get used to the field.
But Baker put Sappelt in the lineup against the Cubs hours after he had just arrived in Chicago. Wrigley’s LF is much trickier than GABP. Plus Baker had Sappelt pinch hit last night and go in to play LF anyhow. Was he acclimated after the rain delay?
It’s discouraging how often Baker’s explanations for his actions are WAY more puzzling than the move itself.
And even if he had been 2-for-2 with a homer, how does that do the organization any good in the long term? Are we bringing Lewis back as a pinch hitter next season? Is he going to be part of our left-field shuffle again next year? Is he still at the “audition” stage of his career? Other players should be getting a few minutes on stage to see what they can do…….
Dusty also said Monday during the pregame interview that he wasn’t going to take ANY player and put him on the bench indefinitely. Fair enough. Lewis got his start last night, and maybe a few pinch hit opportunities could come his way this week and hold him over for several games until Dusty uses him for his next great matchup opportunity. If Dusty runs him right back out there in the three or four days, it’s more of the same. Ridiculous.
Roy, how many games have you seen him play LF? I’m not questioning the foot speed point, but have you watched him much of the year at Louisville?
@Bill Lack:
I have not seen him at Louisville, but the foot speed is the main issue for me. Once he makes a mistake or a wrong break, his body moves too slowly to make up for the mistake. He’s just too slow to cover the ground. I’m willing to see what he can do out there the rest of the year, but early returns don’t look favorable. I think Dusty is avoiding it because he feels his seat getting hot and wants to put up a winning record.
I’ve seen enough of Alonso to agree he’ll never become a ML-caliber LF, and I’ve spent the past 10 years watching Adam Dunn and Jonny Gomes butchering plays out there. I can’t imagine that he’ll be any better at 3B, and I don’t understand why they’d begin the experiment at the ML level. But the organization doesn’t seem to have laid any contingency plans for this season and instead bet the house on everything that went right last season going even better this year.*
Alsonso should have been taking balls at third down in Louisville, if only before games, so the coaches there could give detailed reports on his arm, instead of it being a total mystery as of the first week of August. Heck, he’s been in the organization for almost three years now; you’d think someone might know about those skills by now.
I’ve been a big defender of Jocketty and, to a lesser extent, Baker since they’ve been here, but this season has been mystifying. I’m okay with not making any big moves at the deadline, because it was unclear exactly what this team needed and the cost of any real upgrades seemed exorbitant. But I don’t understand why they’ve let so many B- and C-grade prospects overripen into their age 25 and 26 seasons without either packaging them for needed upgrades or finding out what they can offer to the ML squad. And when they are called up, they don’t play enough. It’s like having a refrigerator full of food and going out to eat every night until you notice a funny odor in the kitchen.
Now THAT is a good quote, Travis. And all too true. Nice.
Daugherty wrote this weekend that Baker “isn’t universally admired in the executive offices.” A rather cryptic comment and the first hint I’ve seen of a rift between the FO and Baker. Jocketty might be ready this winter to (finally) bring in his own guy.
Dusty or no Dusty, can the front office please bring in a leadoff hitter this summer? If Sappelt is that guy, then please get a #2 hitter to help out Votto. This has been our problem for the last 20 years, and every summer there is talk about it and nothing gets done. Maybe this is the year…..
“Dusty has its reasons which Reason knows nothing of”
@Travis G.: I think judging him on 3 games in LF is pretty ridiculous. I doubt he’ll ever be an average defender out there, but the question is really whether his offense outweighs his defense by enough that it makes sense to play him. It’ll be a close call imo. Of course, the Reds already have a guy on the team whose offense warrants him playing anywhere…
@CP: I agree three games is a terribly small sample size, but I’m basing my analysis on the qualified praise his defensive work has gotten (“he’s getting a little better out there every month,” “his first step almost compensates for his statuesque foot speed,” “he’s not literally butchering veal calves out there anymore,” etc.) and my observation of him lamely chasing rolling balls all over Wrigley Field.
Basically, his defensive ceiling is Jonny Gomes. I don’t care how good he hits; that’s just not very good. Too bad Votto apparently won’t consider moving. That could be considered another managerial problem, actually.
@Travis G.: I’m with you, Travis. I’m tired of hearing, “Man, we have a crowded situation at 3B with…and then about 10 players are listed, and same for LF. I don’t understand how this situation is allowed to arise, while the Reds have 17 #4 starters. If Cueto regresses to his FIP next year, it’s going to be *much worse*. Are the Reds going to, in a year, platoon Grandal and Mesoraco too? It’s really getting ludicrous.
The Reds didn’t platoon Kurt Stilwell and Barry Larkin!
They can’t all be “supersubs”. I saw Fay predict that both Frazier and Alonso would be on the roster next year, along with Rolen starting at 3B. How is that possible? And that’s another reason why I don’t get why Alonso is taking balls at 3B. What is going on? IF he succeeds, then he gets to play 40 games a year, tops, there. Plus another 5 when Votto needs a rest, and zero in LF. They can’t seriously be thinking then he gets 150 games at 3B in 2013, and 150 games at 1B in 2014 when Votto leaves. AND that’s all contingent on if he can handle 3B in the first place.
Good lord, this team is mismanaged. The Reds need to get a top-end starter and even overpay a little bit using these players that are B level prospects but have no prayer of playing much, and then they’ll just have to plug in inferior backup players in place of them. They are backups, after all, and they don’t get that many ABs.
Again: Heisey, Sappelt, Alonso, Frazier. These guys are vying for 40 games at 3B, plus 150 or so in LF, assuming there’s some other backup OF that gets a few. That’s 190 games divided between the 4 players, obviously not evenly because not all play 3B and not all play LF. Still, the Reds cannot possibly carry all of these players in the major league roster, assuming Stubbs is a Red of course.
@Travis G.: I have to admit, after seeing Alonso play in college—but never in the pros, the last thing that would have ever crossed my mind is him playing in the OF. His position was “hitter”. Only Dusty Baker would have him stealing bases, for example.
I hate when my dad always reminisces about the old days and how players were better then (impossible), but there’s one thing I do miss, which is the manager telling a player, “hey, you’re playing LF now”. I like Votto, but I would like him to move to the OF if need be.
Maybe players back in the day refused to move positions and it was never reported?
Answer: Reserve Clause
Players were property of the team “for life” or until the team decided otherwise.
Rose changed positions, Perez was at 3B for a few years, wasn’t he, until first base opened up? … I don’t necessarily think it’s incumbent on Votto to WANT to change positions, but I thought his insistence that him being moved from first base would damage the infield solidarity was real lame.
@Dave Lowenthal: I’d have to think Stubbs is expendable at this point. The odd thing about Stubbs, is that Cincinnati fans have a completely different appreciation of him than national fans. I have a couple Braves fans’ who live elsewhere and after the most recent series they were raving about him, talking about how they wish they had him (this is pre-Bourne). I’m not a Stubbs-hater by any means but his strikeouts are frustrating even to his supporters. The Ks are just psychologically wearing on the fan base. Its something you can’t appreciate until you witness it. I can’t see it’d be that different to other GMs.
My biggest frustration with Stubbs is that he isn’t the defensive center fielder I expected.
@Y-City Jim:
Glad you said this. I’ve been trying to tell people that he has issues going back on balls (wall shy?) and never leaves his feet for a spectacular grab. He covers a lot of ground, but often does not complete the play with max effort once he arrives near enough to the ball. Is this what you see as well?
@royhobbs: That’s exactly what I see as well. Yet, I’m willing to take a wait and see approach. Stubby’s floor is very solid, so he won’t lose value. Let’s see what we have in Sappelt before making any judgements.
Get a real leadoff hitter, put Stubbs sixth or seventh, get rid of some of the other routine Ks in the lineup, and with a little improvement — say, cut the whiffs in half — Stubbs would be terrific.
The real question in the offseason comes down to whether or not the Reds can get true value for Votto. It brings a tear to my eye just typing that, but Yonder has made it clear that he can be a solid power hitter who can bat cleanup in the bigs. The Jose Bautista rumors are very intriguing and if the Reds could pull it off, they would then have a proven RBI man in the 3 spot as well. One thing the Reds will need to pursue is that ever elusive leadoff hitter that they’ve been lacking for the past decade. Sappelt deserves the opportunity to prove himself for the rest of this year, but could someone like Cozart hit leadoff? With all of this ranting here is a preview of my 2012 Reds dream lineup:
SS Zach Cozart
2B Brandon Phillips
LF Jose Bautista
1B Yonder Alonso
RF Jay Bruce
CF Drew Stubbs
C Devin Mesoraco
3B Frazier/Rolen
Bench: Sappelt, Hanigan, Janish, Heisey, Fransisco, Cairo
This is definitely a lineup that will rely on production from some young and rather unproven prospects, but it is also a lineup that is teeming with potential. Let the kids play Dusty, if I see Renteria and Janish in the same lineup one more time this season, I will lose it.
I’m sure not willing to say that Alonso’s “made it clear that he can be a solid power hitter who can bat cleanup in the bigs” based on his minor league numbers and the limited time he’s been in the big leagues. I think that’s really jumping the gun.
Not my post. Bruce bats no higher than 6th and Stubbs is benched until he improves. Otherwise I’m good with this post.
@CP: The K’s are frustrating enough but his lack of ability to seldom (ever?) produce in high pressure situations is the worst part, IMO.
If he ever gets over those two bumps, then you might be looking at an All-Star caliber player. Like to see what a new hitting coach might do with him before trading.
@Bill Lack I do agree that I may be jumping the gun with the Alonso batting 4th line, however, who else are you going to put there? Phillips is a two hole hitter, we’ve seen Bruce struggle there throughout his short career, Rolen has derailed this season due to old age, we certainly don’t have the money to go get a solid number four guy…It’s pretty clear the Reds are going to have to make some gambles on their young talent. It was said best earlier that it’s like having a fridge over stuffed with food and going out to eat every night, then coming back and finding the food spoiled. We can’t continue to allow our potential to waste away in AAA.
That’s the whole predicament in a nutshell. In order to get max value for Votto or Alonso, these decisions will have to be made quickly. Dusty’s footdragging is an organizational failure.
If it were my team, I’d move Votto for a stud pitcher, fire Dusty, and let this young core grow together over the next 4 years. The upsides are obvious:
1. you can’t do any worse.
2. it saves money.
3. it stays the course.
4. maintains payroll flexibility for when you need to acquire that final piece.
In regards to the Joey Votto as a LFer situation:
First of all, too much is being made of the Fay article. What Joey tells the press if they ask him to move versus what he tells management may be two entirely different things. We may never know because management may never ask him.
Second, on the issue of whether he should move or not. That really depends on how Joey Votto sees himself. Several of us have mentioned the importance of Pete Rose making the move to 3B in 1975 in order to get George Foster into the line-up. That move happened due to several reasons. One, management asked. Two, Rose wanted to win and knew Foster’s bat has huge. Three, Pete Rose believed he could do anything he set his mind to doing.
I see Albert Pujols in exactly the same way. He has moved positions multiple times because management asked him to do it and explained why. He wanted to win. He believes that he can do anything he puts his mind to doing. Both Rose and Pujols would have gone to the pitching mound or behind the plate if asked for the same reasons.
We even see it with lesser players such as Paul Janish and Ramon Hernandez. They will play wherever asked to play.
The question remains to see if Joey Votto is cut of the same cloth as these others. We may never know because management may never ask or perhaps even trades him away. Even if asked it might depend on who is doing the asking. If Baker is fired at the end of the season, that might be an important consideration in the hiring of his replacement.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: I dunno. My main point would be that there is a perception gap between Cincy and elsewhere. A big question mark would be whether WJ could exploit it (flip side: or other teams exploit the Reds)?
I don’t think Stubbs will ever significantly cut down on his Ks. I’m trying to think of someone who managed to pull it off and am pretty much drawing a blank. I’m sure there are some that got better with age, but I’m talking about the extreme guys like Reggie Jackson. Mark Reynolds has drastically cut down this year his but you wonder if this year is just an outlier? He’s still only hitting .213 (but with an OPS 800+).
I’d be very disappointed if the Reds traded Stubbs b/c of his perceived lack of clutchness. There are oddities out there, like Mariana Riviera, but Stubbs is clearly a streaky hitter and his sample size is still insignificant.
By the way, I’ve read a couple guys on here mention trading Stubbs for BJ Upton. I was looking over the “Clutch” stats and noticed that B.J. Upton was the lease clutch hitter in all of MLB in 2010. Also, looking down at the list for 2011, you see how the stat is completely devoid of predictability:
Bottom 35:
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Drew Stubbs
5. Carlos Lee
11. David Ortiz (Mr. Clutch himself)
13. Ian Kinsler
15. Jose Reyes
16. Paul Konerko
20. Jimmy Rollins
21. Adrian Beltre
22. Nick Markakis
23. Troy Tulowitzki
30. Lance Berkman
33. Derek Jeter (OH NOES!)
34. Carl Crawford
A lot of all stars on that list!
Alonso’s promotion meant that Jocketty had made a decision, based on input from Rick Sweet and others, his own observations, etc. that Alonso was ready to be given a chance to play LF for the Reds.
Dusty, based on whatever evidence, publicly expresses strong doubts that Alonso can play LF. He starts him 1 game in the short LF in Houston.
Alonso pulls up on a catchable (at least for someone else) line drive, but isn’t terrible. Heisey gets hurt so Alonso starts 2 games in the difficult LF in Chicago. In those 2 games, he makes multiple misplays.
Then Dusty announces Alonso’s not playing out there any more. So how was that decided ? WJ had to go along with this change in thinking, whether he liked it or not. Based on misplays in 2 games, the (presumably) thoroughly considered decision to give Alonso a chance in LF is reversed ? How could that be ? Did Dusty go around WJ and straight to Bob ? EIther way, at least one of them has to be fired, they’re not working together.
Dusty “publically expresses” a little too much. The next manager needs to be much more selective on what comes out of his mouth.
Oh yeah, I forgot about the Houston misplay. That opened the floodgates for that big inning against Arroyo.
@Y-City Jim: I always wonder if Stubbs suffers from making things look too easy. I have been disappointed in a couple plays this year. Maybe guys like Heisey, who I can recall at least 4 or 5 diving/sliding catches from already his relatively short career, are more comfortable sliding because they’ve had to do it more often by necessity? It just isn’t something you can safely practice very often or duplicate the game conditions on. I will give Drew credit and say that very few CFs have his arm. For the most part, teams just don’t run on him and Jay.
@royhobbs: This is what I see. Stubbs gets in position to make a spectacular play, and then he doesn’t make it.
@CP: I’m sure Stubbs makes catches that a lot of other OFers either could not make or would look spectacular making it. But that doesn’t mean he’s making all the catches that he can, or that another OFer with similar range would make.
Whatever his range is, he’ll always get the chance to make plays that are a bit of his range, by diving, colliding with the OF wall, whatever. He doesn’t make an effort to make those plays. Reminds me of how people say Joe DiMaggio was so good he never had to leave his feet and dive for a ball. That just tells me that whatever his range was, DiMaggio was not willing to extend his range by making an extra effort on a ball a little outside of it.
One positive thing is that with this style of play, Stubbs avoids injuries. A good contrast is between him and Eric Davis. But he should be able to make a diving catch without getting hurt – don’t know if that applies to crashing into a wall.
Stubbs is weak in CF, just like Joe DiMaggio.
Rough crowd.
Stubbs covers ground without leaving feet:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15445693
Stubbs diving catch:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6986823
Stubbs running into a wall:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8435187
Stubbs making play over his head:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17362431
Stubbs diving for a ball:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15637105
Stubbs sliding catch:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15637105
Another sliding catch:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7882471
Had to show the play in my icon.
Stubbs leaping catch robs Carlos Lee of a 2-run homer in division-clinching game:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12534929
Is there any true precedent for a guy who strikes out every 3 times up to reduce that ratio significantly? Generally, I understand the logic regarding a strikeout being just another out for some players, especially those who GIDP a decent amount, but a guy with Stubbs speed does not GIDP. I’m not a fan of the sacrifice bunt, but this guy could probably bunt .250 if he worked at it. Imagine what his average and OBP could be. They seem to be backing off of the leadoff thing with him and appear to have decided that he’ll be an RBI guy down in the order.
This might be an overly extreme comparison for comparison’s sake, but is it possible that Stubbs sees himself as a No. 5-type hitter with his power, and has no liking for leadoff? The Pirates brought up a kid a few decades ago who could run and hit, and he wanted to prove he was more than a leadoff/singles hitter: Barry Bonds.
If “Yonder has made it clear that he can be a solid power hitter who can bat cleanup in the bigs”, he should be a huge trading chip. I doubt that either proposition is true. There is little evidence for it. Remember the debut of Jay Bruce? That seemed to be “evidence” that he was going to be spectacular. Didn’t quite work out that way. And his Minors numbers were more compelling that Yonder’s. Votto is the only really steady, reliable player on the roster. That is a huge asset. Everyone assumes that he is walking when his contract is up. I’m not so sure. He didn’t want to lock his future in too far out. He wanted to be able to make that decision later rather than sooner. I understand and respect that. Like most good players I assume he wants to play on a winner. He may have had and still have the same questions as a lot of us. Is this organization going to make it possible to win? He is smart and a gentleman so he may have the same frustrations as the rest of us, especially with Dusty, and keeping that all to himself. Would you sign up to stay and play for Dusty and the weirdness that seems to prevail here? If things change, his calculations could change as well. He may well want to stay with his friend Jay Bruce and the comfort of the known, if that “known” starts to look more sane and like a winner.
And nobody has even jumped on situation with Chapman.
Could he be the next Randy Johnson, or a lesser guy like the next Vida Blue/Frank Tanana?? I would rather have any of those instead of the next Billy Wagner. For some reason, Dusty and Walt do not see it that way.
The whole Yonder situation is a fiasco and makes Dusty/Walt look silly. Yonder plays the whole AAA mostly in LF and some 1B. The futures game has him at 1B. He gets called up and then told to learn 3B after only 3 games in LF!!!!!! yeah, thats the way to showcase his skills for an offseason trade and so Reds put him someplace where he is more likely to fail or worse get hurt because he is not familiar to the position. yes, Bill, I dont understand the thinking either.
Stubbs is weak in CF, just like Joe DiMaggio.
Rough crowd.
Stubbs covers ground without leaving feet:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15445693
Stubbs diving catch:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6986823
Had to show the play in my icon.
Stubbs leaping catch robs Carlos Lee of a 2-run homer in division-clinching game:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12534929
Yeah I don’t think I’ve seen a CF make leaping catchers look so easy. Stubbs is like the anti-Sam Fuld.
@vegastypo: Oh, is that all? Maybe add a couple hundred points to his OPS while he is at it?
Yeah, amazing what could happen if a 225-strikeout season — or whatever his current pace is — was reduced to 100 or so. With that speed, man, he could be a real thorn in the NL’s side.
@vegastypo: Using Bonds as an example is obviously extreme, I guess he is a rare example of a guy that cut his strikeouts in half (not every year but some of his best years). Still, he was an extreme outlier and arguably the best player of all time. Asking Drew to cut 1/4 strikeouts seems pretty extreme to me. 1/2 is almost impossible. Bonds only had to cut 40 or so…Stubbs would have to cut @ 100 of them. It’d be pretty awesome if he did I guess.
Jose Bautista is 30 years old and didn’t become really productive until age 29. Joey Votto is 27 and has always been productive.
Votto is a better player and will be productive longer.
And, yes, the Reds can afford Votto. Lose the contracts of Cordero, Arroyo, and Rolen, and possibly Phillips–problem solved. Phillips is 30. Yes, he’s a fine fielder–but, that’s the skill that usually declines first and he’s still an an average major league hitter (career OPS+ of 94; 105 this year).
Actually, they can afford Phillips, too, but if push comes to shove….Votto contributes more to the team and will be more productive longer. If they win, they CAN afford more and more high paid players–may be even appropriate the money to the right players.
Do you mean the Reds can afford Votto’s $19 million in 2013 or they can afford his even larger contract in later years?
Because if you mean the latter, I disagree. I don’t think the Reds can devote $20 million-plus to one player if the entire budget is $80 million.
And even in 2013, Votto’s contract means we basically can’t make any other significant upgrades, assuming we re-sign BP.
Are you content with the status quo Reds plus a few logical AAA upgrades? I’m not.
@Steve Mancuso:
You’re assuming that it’s a straight 20 million a year. They could defer some money as they did most recently with Arroyo. 5 years, 20 million , with 20 million deferred. I believe he makes 17 in 2013.
True, although it could just as easily be more than $20m per year, as well. Adrian Gonzalez $154/7; Teixeira $180/8; I bet Fielder gets more than $20m/year; and we won’t even mention Pujols at $28m+.
Why is the budget only $80 million? That’s an arbritrary amount. The Reds (according to Forbes Magazine)are one of the most profitable teams in baseball. We almost make enough money off luxury tax receipts to pay the difference in Votto’s salary.
Anyway—that’s a team choice. If we pay to field a winning team, we can afford the winning team. Baseball Prospectus’s “small team” winning formula–pay two legitimate stars big money, pay one or two pitchers big money—and don’t pay guys like Renteria two million—that’s how you afford those guys. Replacement players can be found for $500,000—we could have four Renterias–and this year, they would have been spelled: Frazier, Valaika, Heisey (or Hermida), and Cozart.
We don’t pay closers $13 million–Votto’s contract is not the problem–it’s the other misallocation of team salary.
Yonder Alonso is not a proven RBI producer. His minor league season high is 69 for teams in the top 3-4 in league run production. For comparison, Votto topped 90 twice and 80 once. If Alonso had speed, in my opinion, he would be a pretty darn good #2 good hitter–a lefty, line drive hitter with a good OBP. Without the speed, he’s probably a #6 hitter in a GOOD lineup. Enough doubles to drive people home ot top off rallies, but not enough speed or power to get himself home regularly.
Votto was a former catcher. There’s probably a better chance that Alonso can play 3b than Votto can play LF. Many of us seem to have forgotten that Votto wasn’t a very good first baseman when he first made the majors (terribly throws to pitchers covering first). And, I hate to bring this up, Votto has had documented states of depression. He may be fine now (I truly hope so), but I don’t see why we would rock that boat for someone who really should have been a trade chip. Alonso is not a Hall of Famer in the making.
As has been mentioned—we’ve made a real mistake in not trading the players who needed to be traded at trade deadlines; Hernandez and Cordero come immediately to mind. And, we had overrated prospects in Valaika, Francisco, Frazier, and possibly Alonso who could have been dealt for what the team needed. I believe Cozart has starting potential (but not a star); I think Frazier could be a really good sub corner guy. Heisey’s not going to be a star either (think Chris Denorfia). We’ve had the pieces that could have been dealt. But, we’ve waited too late–most are past the age where they would truly be considered prospects.
@vegastypo: Vegas, no offense, but please step this way to the drug test.
Cut to 100 K’s? Stubbs? Are we talking about the same player?
No offense taken, but it never hurts to dream. Just putting the bat on the ball at so many crucial times this season has left scars!
or FAILING to put the bat on the ball in crucial situations, you get my point
As for the Rose move to the infield–MOST everybody has forgotten–Rose came up as a second baseman and played there for several years. Moving to the infield wasn’t as crazy an idea as many of us know. In fact, another FORGOTTEN story was that Rose was forced to move to 3b in his fourth big league season, age 26 in 1966, to make room for Tommy Helms. Rose did not like the move and his play suffered (some would say he pouted). He was moved back to 2b with future Gold Glover Helms playing 3b for the balance of the season before Rose was moved to the outfield. When Rose successfully moved to third base it came when the Sparky Anderson gently asked Rose to move rather than forcing him to move.
Oh–Tony Perez—Perez came to America as a 2B–moved to OF and then 3b to make room for Rose; played 3b in minors for a few years, and then moved to 1b. Played 1b in the majors, then moved to 3b when Lee May arrived in the majors. They tried converting May to the outfield first (parts of two seasons), but that didn’t work out. Perez moved back to 1b after May was traded.
@Steve Price: No one has mentioned that Alonso repeated AAA from 23 to 24 and only upped his OPS by 35 points.
He’s had one good week and people have penciled him in the cleanup spot. Sheesh. I would like to see him play, but people have gone way overboard. As you say, the team has screwed up in waiting on all these guys.
@Dave Lowenthal: The only way Stubbs could get to 100 K’s is to let Heisey/Sappelt have 1/2 his at bats.
@vegastypo: Everyone here understands! We just don’t think the level of improvement is reasonable. I think cutting his Ks to 150/season would be a major win.
royhobbs: I don’t really see why Votto would take a deal like that. If I’m his advisor, I’m getting him the most money ASAP. Tax rates + inflation rates are at a historical low and have nowhere to go but up (which means the time value of money will be going up too). BTW I think Canadian income taxes are capped at 29% (but there are a lot of various other taxes that he’d be responsible for). It’d be interesting to compare the two. This isn’t Votto’s hometown so I don’t see why he’d give a discount unless he thought the Reds were in line to win immediately or consistently. I know you didn’t say “discount,” but if I’m Joey Votto, it takes a premium to retain me using a deferred contract.
I could be wrong…but, I’m fairly certain tax rates are based on WHERE the money was earned. In other words, each city has its own tax rate. So players’ tax rates vary from city to city.
It’s my understanding that the tax rates are MUCH HIGHER in Canada—I thought that was one reason Rolen wanted out of Toronto. I also thought the Expos had trouble getting free agents to play in Montreal because of the higher tax rates there (for the 81 games).
@royhobbs: Sort of. I have seen nothing spectacular from him at all. Granted he might make some plays look easy but there still should be some fantastic, highlight reel material grabs and they just aren’t there.
@pinson343: Dusty probably views Rick Sweet as a peon so he could care less what Sweet’s opinion might be.
@CP: Part of the problem might be that he plays it overly cautious. He’d rather cut the ball off than take the risk of diving for a ball.