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Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 8
Chicago (NL) 7
W: N. Masset (2-5)
L: S. Marshall (5-5)
S: F. Cordero (20)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Todd Frazier was the key to the offense today: 2-4 with a homer, a double, 2 runs scored, and 3 RBI. The kid looks like he’s having a ton of fun out there, too. Glad he’s finally a Red (for the record, I wanted him in Cincinnati last year.)
–Aroldis Chapman is not mortal. In the eighth, he struck out the side and it was clear that he was playing a different game than everyone else on the field.
–Nice debut by Dave Sappelt, who made a couple of very nice plays in left field, got his first major league hit, and scored a run.
–Chris Welsh attributed it to being more comfortable lower in the order; I don’t know it that’s true, but Drew Stubbs looked good at the plate today. He went 2-3 with a homer, a walk, an RBI, a stolen base, and two runs scored. Productive.
–Joey Votto and Ryan Hanigan each had two hits.
–Excellent ninth by Francisco Cordero to secure his 20th save.
NEGATIVES
–Nothing’s ever easy for this club. They blew a big lead again, before rebounding to take the lead again.
–Logan Ondrusek gave up three runs in one-third of an inning. He’s been brutal lately…and speaking of brutal, Nick Masset came into the game and threw gasoline on the fire. Masset surrendered a double, a walk, a wild pitch, and Cincinnati’s lead in the game.
And, of course, after his pathetic performance, Masset got the win. There is no more ridiculous stat in baseball than the “win.” It’s a meaningless statistic.
–One of the runs assessed to Bronson Arroyo should have been unearned, because Stubbs botched a fly ball that was inexplicably ruled a double.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–The Reds just dropped two of three to the two worst teams in the division…and they moved up to third in the standings. Baseball is a funny game.
–Since the All-Star break, Ondrusek has given up seven runs on twelve hits and five walks in eight innings pitched. Brutal.
–Speaking of pathetic relief, as Lance noted, in Masset’s last ten appearances, he has faced 40 batters faced. Of those batters, 21 reached base: 17 hits, 4 walks, 7 runs allowed. And that doesn’t even take into account the inherited runners he permitted to score.
I’m a Masset fan, but when he is bad, he is very bad.
–Back home tomorrow to begin a four-game series against the Colorado Rockies.
Listened to the Sappelt post game interview. He is a high energy guy. If he is as intelligent as he sounded in the interview then his lacking of knowledge concerning stealing bases is due to a lack of instruction.
If he is willing to come back at a reasonable price, I could live with Coco as the closer another season.
I’ve decided that Ryan Hanigan should be the Reds next manager. I love the way he plays the game. He always seems to be think ahead.
If he can’t be the manager then let him pick the next one.
I can’t wait to watch Aroldis Chapman as a starting pitcher.
Would he threaten the single-game strikeout record? Would he lead the NL in strikeouts? He’d be a threat to throw a no-hitter every time out. In 33 innings he has given up 11 hits. And struck out 52. Only 2 walks in the last 11.2 innings.
I hope the Reds realize how much more unique value he has as a #1 pitcher than he would as a closer.
The way that Masset and Ondrusek have struggled lately, Dusty Baker really needs to change the way he manages the bullpen. He can’t afford to use Bill Bray for just one out. Bray has a strong enough track record against RH hitters to let him pitch entire innings.
@Steve Mancuso: You may be waiting a long time. Despite what Walt has said, The Reds have done nothing at all to indicate they plan on using him as a starter any time soon.
@Y-City Jim: Just think how valuable Hanigan can be to Mesoraco if they develop a good teacher/student relationship. I’ve heard Mesoraco interviewed and he says he learns all the time from Corky Miller in Louisville. Says he talks to him between every inning.
Lots of managers are former catchers.
@Furniture City Red: I know. Too bad Walt isn’t the General Manager.
@Y-City Jim: I’m still holding out for Pete Mackanin to be the Reds manager…I just remember how well the Reds played down the stretch in 07 with him at the helm. He should have got a shot in 08…Instead we got Dusty…sigh.
@Steve Mancuso: ..or, too bad Walt doesn’t give any indication(through actions – not words) that Chapman’s future is a a starter.
Horrible bullpen management again by Dusty. Ondrusek should only be used when you’re behind until his stuff comes back around. Arredondo or Masset should have been afforded the opportunity to start the inning clean. In Masset’s case, he seems to do better that way. So instead of using one guy, you end up using 3. Same stuff different day.
–nice non-dive by Stubbs on that weak bloop to center…..or at least fake the catch and throw to second for the force. Lazy, lazy play.
–Frazier is not Rolen’s equal defensively, but his power will more than make up for it. Frazier should be the starter.
–Pick one (and remember, death is not an option): Bruce at the plate when he’s slumping, or Stubbs??
–It’s going to be very difficult to make the case that Arroyo is a better option to start than Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Chapman, or Wood. Willis is the only guy he’d beat out IMO….maybe Bailey because of health. Eat some money and move him to a contending team that needs an innings eater.
@Steve Mancuso: I do hope the Reds keep Corky and Hanigan in the family and groom them as managers. It’s something I admire about the White Sox and Twins. Very high baseball IQ in both.
@Sultan of Swaff: I’d pick Bruce. At least he’d be swinging the bat and might get lucky…Stubbs is likely to look at strike three.
@Steve Mancuso: Agreed. This bullpen by committee stuff isn’t getting it done.
I think it would be very confusing to be a reliever in Dusty’s bullpen.
this was probably the most disappointing game of the year for me.
why?
because the Reds won and I just don’t care because it doesn’t mean anything anymore
it’s a bummer that the Reds are out of it.
“…One of the runs assessed to Bronson Arroyo should have been unearned, because Stubbs botched a fly ball that was inexplicably ruled a double…..”
Welsh mentioned that play on the telecast ans stated its mandated rule the official scorer has to give a hit when an OF loses the ball in the sun. He does not like the rule either.
on to the game, wow, a one-run W. Reds got a break with Votto’s “Bloop” double and for once took advantage. Frazier at 3B and in the batting order, more of that please Walt/Dusty. Good first impression by Sappelt, especially on D. Wonder how Dusty will divvy up playing time for Yonder, Sappelt while Heisey on DL.
Not true. If the ball hits the fielder’s glove, the scorer can call it an error. The Reds won a game against the Mets in 2006 by scoring 3 runs on a fly ball by Junior that Mike Cameron obviously lost in the sun. The ball glanced off Cameron’s glove, and it was ruled an error.
The way Frazier has hit, how can the Reds not give him an extended tryout at 3B. He can really hit, and with power. I’ve seen him in spring training be one of the most impressive power hitters on the team. It always made me wonder why Baker wasn’t more enamored with him like he is for Juan Francisco.
I’m worried that Baker will try to get Francisco called up and give him most of the non-Cairo time at 3B and use Frazier sporadically.
@Y-City Jim: Why? What is good about Cordero?
@Steve Mancuso: I wonder if people realize what the month-long meltdown of Nick Masset means to the Reds’ future. (And I’m a fan of Masset, but there’s no denying, he’s been absolutely brutal the last month and that has to be a factor in determining roles for next year.)
I’m assuming that Cordero won’t be back next year, and at this point the Reds are not going to go with Masset as closer. Bray isn’t going to be the closer (though I would be ok with that over the alternative I’m going to discuss), and Ondrusek ain’t going to be the closer either. The Reds are blind to Lecure, so it isn’t him. Folks, that leaves Chapman. The Reds are going to say that there’s a gap at closer and that for the good of the team, it needs to be Chapman.
Now, this is the stupid, but that’s what they are going to say. Chapman is going to be the closer for this team next year and throughout his 4 year tenure (starting next year) as a Red. That is my prediction.
DaveL, thats been one worry as well for me. Given the recent issues in the bullpen, the Reds either pick up CoCo option(12M) because he is a “proven” closer or the Reds mgmt feel “forced” to make Chapman the closer and not give themselves the option of Chapman as a starter.
@Dave Lowenthal: I should say, a nearly equally stupid move is to pay Cordero about 8M or so to be the closer next year.
@Steve Mancuso: Are you serious? I mean, there’s no way on God’s green earth Todd Frazier is playing 3B next year short of Scott Rolen retiring. I completely agree with you, but it just isn’t happening. We all know it isn’t happening.
Someone has to get the 40+ games a year that Rolen won’t be able to play. Plus Frazier can play so many other positions he would play a lot. I’m realistic about Rolen still being there, although there several ways that could end up, including retirement.
I was more making the point that I’d rather see Frazier get the chance ahead of Juan Francisco. Not so much pushing Rolen out the door. His shoulder seems to be doing a decent job of that anyhow.
They should be grooming Bray as a closer. He has closer stuff, but they’ve pigeonholed him as a LOOGY.
@John: Agreed, agreed, but it’ll never happen.
There is no more ridiculous stat in baseball than the “win.” It’s a meaningless statistic.
I contend the hold is more worthless. The boxscore credits Ondrsuek with a hold. He got one out, gave up two hits and 3 earned runs.
@Steve Mancuso: Sheesh, if Francisco plays ahead of Frazier I’m going to puke.
The Reds really need to play Alonso in LF and Frazier at 3B every dang day the rest of the year. I don’t care if Alonso trips over every sprinkler head in the world. The Reds need to figure out what they have, and also, the truth is that it’s highly unlikely Alonso starts 2012 on the Reds. He’ll likely start it as a 1B on another NL team or as a DH or 1B on an AL team. No one cares if he can catch the ball or not out there. The Reds are not in contention for anything.
I don’t know if he can play LF or not, but for reporters and Reds announcers to declare he can’t after less than a week out there is simply ridiculous.
@Dave Lowenthal: I think playing Alonso everyday in LF is a no brainer (which makes me doubt that it will happen). If he appears to improve defensively, keep him. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably at least hit, and at least he will look inviting for an AL team or a NL team needing a 1B. I don’t think Heisey will be back all that soon and starting Lewis out there accomplishes nothing.
Assuming Alonso DOESN’T end up in LF next year, how does this lineup look. Remember, the middle three can be juggled for lefty/right matchups, etc.
Sappelt CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Mesoraco C
Heisey LF
Cozart SS
Pitcher
Probably not as potent as with Alonso in LF, that would be my first choice, but I could live with Heisey in LF batting 7th or so.
I don’t think Bruce has proved that he can be a good #4 at this point. They don’t even have to pitch around him, just stack everything to right and bring in a lefty and if he doesn’t K he will hit it to someone. I think he can still be productive throughout his career even if this ends up being his ceiling, but I keep him at 5 or 6 in the order. I might consider moving Votto to 4 and putting Frazier in front of him.
Nice to see the team overcome its manager for once.
@Dave Lowenthal: He has done an adequate job. Decent ERA. Increased GB ration. Walk rate down. The Ks are down but they have been all his Cincinnati years. He would have to take a significant pay cut though. Very significant.
@Dave Lowenthal: But he could spell him two or three times a week.
@Dave Lowenthal: Frazier has done more in two weeks than Francisco has done in three part-time seasons.
@Jason1972: There is only a slight drop off in Bruce’s numbers against LHP. He just need to improve his overall approach at the plate.
@Jason1972: I think Bruce will get there. Truthfully, if you depend on young guys for 4-6 you are going to be moving them around in the order based on lots of things. Something that might work also is
Sappelt
Cozart
Phillips
Votto
@Jason1972: You realize that, in that lineup, you have three guys who have played the equivalent of a full season in the major leagues. That is not a recipe for success.
Much as I don’t think he’s the greatest player ever, I don’t get why people are so down on Stubbs. I know he can be frustrating at times, but he’s been a league average hitter over 2+ season at premium defensive position (a position he plays well).
@jholcomb: Interestingly, Alonso and Sappelt have had pretty similar offensive contributions (though arrived at differently) in the last few years in the minors. Sappelt, obviously, offers more defensively and they are almost exactly the same age. Given that, I don’t know why Alonso playing LF is such a no-brainer.
@Jason Linden: It’s a no brainer for this year because I think other teams value Alonso much more highly. I suppose I can’t offer any proof of this, but at least anecdotally there have been zero rumors of anyone interested in Sappelt. Sappelt isn’t exciting. Doesn’t mean I’m uninterested in him for this team, but Alonso was a high pick, etc. I’d like to see if he can’t put together a good month at the plate and up his trade value. Next year is a whole different story.
@doctor: And I’m not the biggest Phillips fan, esp. for a long term contract (I say “no” to an expensive one), but they must pick up that option on him. If they pick up Cordero, or even agree at 8-10M for a one year on him, say, they might use that as an excuse to not pick up Phillips. That would be ridiculous, as Phillips has much more value to the team than Cordero.
@Dave Lowenthal: Clarification; obviously, they could also pick up Phillips’ option and immediately trade him, which is what I advocated for Arroyo last year.
@Jason Linden: Obviously, it depends on what happened to the guys not in that lineup. If, for example, Stubbs helped bring James Shields, say, we might have a different opinion.
I think it is more important to find out if Alonso can play 3B than it is to find out if he can play LF. The guy told Thom Brennaman he still considers himself a 3B despite the fact he has bever played there professionally.
If Alonso can play 3B, he gets the time next year that Rolen can’t play there; and, Frazier is the supersub. Sappelt plays left; but, most importantly leads off (or at least bats in one of the spots in front of Votto). Stubbs stays in CF but drops down to 7th in the order.
In a couple of seasons Rolen will be gone for sure and Votto may walk. At that point they can move Alonso to to 1B and drop Frazier in at 3B if need be.
I’d be looking to move Stubbs or Heisey in a trade, even Votto for the right deal unless he signals a readiness to talk a longer term deal. This team has been crying for a lead off hitter for years and it looks like they might have one in Sappelt. Hang onto him. They also need to hang onto Alonso and Frazier both until they see how other situations shake out. Hopefully Francisco will finish strong a AAA and have a huge year in the winter league to help build some trade value.
You don’t think that the fact that the Reds haven’t even looked at him there says anything about his ability to play there? I remember last off season (I believe) someone asked Jocketty about it and he said he wasn’t a 3B.
I’ve been told he’s unGodly slow and not quick…which would seem to me to preclude a 3B possibility.
I thought they looked at Alonso as a 3b possibility in 2010 spring training, but he was so inadequate in workouts they didn’t play him at any games there?
@OhioJim: Also, I think if BP is not seriously hurt and can play to his normal level within a week and if they have the good sense to let these kids play every day, it is quite possible these guys will put together a nice run to the end of thr season.
A miracle run to the divison title? I think not given the depth of the hole they are in but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were breathing down the Cards neck at the end witnhin 3 games or so of the Brew Crew.
@Dave Lowenthal: On the Massett meltdown. Agree with the implications for next year. Also without the meltdowns by Massett and Ondrusek over the last three weeks, we would not yet be using the term next year and the Reds in the same sentence. The run the BeerBoys have put together in the last week would have the Reds hanging by a thread around 5 out but not closed out like they are now.
@OhioJim: A run will depend heavily on the pitching, particularly the bullpen.
Dusty will have a tough decision making the lineup tomorrow for several reasons:
1) Stubbs played well but you’d like to get Alonso and Sappelt in the lineup
2) Homer Bailey pitches better with Hanigan catching but Ramon has .537 career BA vs the Colorado Rockies starter Hammel
3) With BP probably still unavailable, that guarantees two of Janish, Cairo, and Renteria will play every night.
With all that in mind, here is my lineup for tomorrow night’s game assuming that Alonso’s ankle is okay and Phillips’ ankle needs a few more days off
Sappelt cf
Renteria ss
Votto 1b
Frazier 3b
Alonso lf
Bruce rf
Hernandez c
Cairo 2b
Bailey p
I hate to give Stubbs the day off after a good day, but if Alonso is healthy he MUST be in left. Plus, after 7 or 8 innings if Dusty wants to bring in Stubbs as a defensive replacement and move Sappelt to left, I’m fine with that. Just get Alonso’s big bat in there for the majority of the game.
@OhioJim: Right, Masset and Ondrusek have combined to lose a number of games since the All Star break.
An adjustment has been needed in their use in high leverage situations, and hasn’t been made.
Bray did blow 1 save in the 8th against the Giants, in a game where he got 4 outs. If anyone second guessed that, they shouldn’t have. He and LeCure should both be pitching to more batters in high leverage situations. Instead Dusty turned to Arredondo on Friday. Ugh.
@Y-City Jim: Yes, I realized I forgot to mention the bullpen even as I was hitting the Post button.
Right now it is in sorry shape. Ondrusek and Massett are worthless when they need them most. If they have anybody at Louisville to use as a long man (Thompson?) maybe they should bring him up and push LeCure back into a setup role. Also expanding Bray’s role could help out unless he has a health issue which makes that not possible.
Positives: Sappelt’s defense in LF. I especially liked his not reaching into the ivy on Byrd’s double. Temporarily saved a run.
Frazier has impressive pop. Alonso can hit but who knows where to play him.
I missed the Friday and Saturday games but from what I read he’s a disaster in LF.
Was anyone surprised today at Frazier playing 3rd and Janish 2nd ? Frazier has more experience than Soft J. at 2nd, and I would think Janish would be quicker than him at 3rd.
(Janish playing SS is a separate issue, not talking about that.)
@OhioJim: The Reds have numerous organizational options for long man (like Arroyo). LeCure has done very well when given a chance as a setup man. He can help with 2 innings in extra inning games, also.
@reds_fan: Lineup quandry…. They could play Frazier at 2B and Alonso at 3B with Sappelt in LF and Stubbs in CF.
I saw the Alonso Thom Brenneman interview. I think Alono is very serious about wanting a look at third. He will play where ever they tell him and do the best he can; but says he really wants to be at 3rd even over being at 1st.
I think here is a guy who who has looked around and decided he wants to be in Cincy with this group they have and that playing third is the way to get there.
I know I don’t have to remind you of this but for the younger guys, the Reds lived with another Cuban at 3B for several years because 1B was blocked and that one eventually turned out well for the Reds and the player who was of course Tony Perez.
One potentially large difference: Perez came to the States as an 18-year-old second baseman in 1960, was moved to the outfield, and then to 3b in rookie ball (all at age 18). Perez played 3b in the minors 1960-64 before moving to 1b. Alonso is being asked to move the other way on the defensive spectrum. A closer example (comparison) would be Joe Adcock–Ted Kluszewski in the early 1950′s where Adcock had to play LF because Klu couldn’t and Klu was the better hitter. Adcock was a very good hitter himself and later became a Milwaukee Brave.
@OhioJim: Nice reference to Tony Perez and Lee May. Tony of course was not a good 3rd baseman.
@pinson343: Frazier got burned again today at 3rd on another one that looked to be within in 1 step reach to his right that was by him before he got his glove down. In fact I think it was the one that Sappelt let go into the ivy.
If he can’t make that quick 1st step and reach accross his body they need to get him closer to line (of course if they had Janish or Cozart on his SS side that would be easier done).
@pinson343: On Tony and 3B: Exactly.
If they can live with Alonso at 3B spelling Rolen in 2012 and maybe starting there for a year until the Votto contract situation is resolved either way that is much preferable to moving him now and maybe not having an elite hitting 1B after 2013.
@reds_fan: Dusty will have Ramon catch tomorrow, with the way he’s hammered Hammel. You could bet your last dollar on it.
Cairo is hurting, sore in the oblique area because Dusty was starting him too much, he might get a couple more days off.
@OhioJim: I saw the video of both of Frazier’s critical misses on shots down the line this week (both hit off Masset).
Today was a rocket and not as close to him.
I like your suggestion – especially late in a game – of Janish at SS cheating toward the 5-6 hole – and Frazier playing a step closer to the line.
Did anyone notice that the Pittsburgh Pirates just lost 10 games in a row…0-10 in their last ten. Meanwhile, Milwaukee went 9-1! Milwaukee gained 9 games on Pittsburgh in a week and half. That is an epic collapse by Pittsburgh. Honestly, I feel kinda sorry for their fans and organization. Their pitching just completely fell apart over this streak.
I guess it’s what makes a 162 game season very interesting. It’s definitely a marathon and not a sprint. I just am never a Milwaukee believer but they just keep winning. Really makes Cincy look bad with all the moves they made and how they paid off against Cincy’s underwhelming moves.
Apparently, Milwaukee has little left in the minor league system. But maybe their Major league team will be good enough to make a run for a couple years here.
I think the Reds are in a confusing place. We’ll see how good these young guys really are. If 3-4 of the young guys don’t turn into pretty good players (Bailey becomes a 15 game winner, Alonso hits .300, Bruce, Stubbs, or someone like Frazier has a breakout year in 2012) then the Reds are not gonna contend for the division title.
Cueto has had a very good year, and it seems like their is depth with Cincy’s starting ptiching, but it seems like they have a 5 man rotation of #3 starters. All of a sudden, the future in Cincy is unclear, whereas it seemed so bright just a year ago.
I share the concerns expressed about the Reds closer situation for next season.
I don’t want Chapman or CoCo closing for the Reds in 2012, even though, today, for example, I was confident they would shut down the Cubs in the 8th and 9th. Chapman should be starting and CoCo is too expensive.
One other possibility is Brad Boxberger, whom the Reds seem to be grooming to close. It doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to close in early 2012 though. He’s pitched in 16 games at Louisville and has decent peripherals along with a couple of bad outings.
@JerBear: Milwaukee is putting everything into 2011. From everything I’ve heard and read, Fielder won’t be with the Brewers in 2012, and they aren’t the same team without him. That’s why they’ve been willing to empty out their minor league system.
The Cardinals are in a very uncertain place as far as 2012 goes.
Whatever the Reds management does, they have to recognize what an opportunity the Reds have in 2012-2013.
I understand most wanting Chapman to start…but I think it’s based on the team’s need. A world series contender would have him coming out of the bullpen at this point in his career. I can just see a team like the Red Sox or Yankees loving to have him pitching the 7th and 8th inning and handing it over to Papelbon or Rivera for the save.
I guess it makes me think you need both, a couple great starters, and a couple great bullpen arms to win the World Series. The Reds maybe have two in Cueto and Chapman.
Fielder would be tough to replace, but I wouldn’t totally rule out him returning to Milwaukee. It’d be a surprise though.
But that would free up a lot of money for Milwaukee to spend on other free agaents as well. I think Pujols stays in St. Louis. And Wainright returns.
I’d like to believe Pinson, and maybe I am just being pessimistic tonight, but things are a lot more uncertain for the Reds then they appeared in the recent past.
I wonder if finishing over .500 would make any difference in the direction of next year’s team. Part of me thinks it would, but maybe not.
@JerBear: I’m torn about the finishing over .500 thing. I can’t help but want the Reds to win every game they play, but now when they lose I try to take consolation in the thought that if they finish under .500, that will serve as a wakeup call to Castellini.
.
@JerBear: Pirate fans will remember this season as the one of the 19th inning blown call. The thing is, they were going to crumble anyway. Just not enough pitching or offense.
@pinson343: The Pirates just aren’t and never were a good team. After a 10 game losing streak, they are still outperforming their expected W-L by two games! They have no hitting outside of McCutcheon and Jones, and their pitching has overperformed incredibly. (Starters, I’m referring to.)
@pinson343: Not only is Cordero too expensive, he’s getting older and is also too unreliable. It’s an even bet or better that he reverts back to his BB/9 of the previous 3 years in 2012. Moreover, his H/9 is completely out of whack with his whole career save for 2 years. And, his strikeout rate was the lowest it’s been since 2000.
The Reds really should steer clear of Cordero, but I would not at all be surprised if they don’t.
I have been in NJ/NY over the weekend and at no time did I care what the Reds did in Chicago…which is sad, but this season is over and figure it’s time to move on and hope they get back to winning in spite of Dusty next year, cause Dusty isn’t going anywhere. Oh and will be at Citi Field in NYC tonight and see how it compares to GABP….
For me, a true test of a GM is his ability to construct a bullpen on the cheap. It will be interesting to see what they do. My guess is Walt will acquire an arm but largely stay in-house.
It wouldn’t suprise me to see Volquez get a shot. His lapses in concentration would be curtailed in high leverage situations. His stuff (3 pitch repertoire) and occasional wildness would profile similar to Cordero. This much I know—I never want to see Volquez starting a game again. Bullpen or trade.
I was about to make a post about the 2012 bullpen and saw yours. So far the discussion has been about who will close in 2012, but the rest of the bullpen is also a concern. Massett and Ondrusek could provide depth but the Reds cannot rely on them in 2012 as high leverage situation guys, or the regular 8th inning guy. Masset is too streaky and Ondrusek is just plain not that good.
Who then ? Bray is OK, the rest are question marks. I like LeCure, but he’s on the roster at all, it will probably once again be as a long guy.
As you say the bullpen needs to be improved on the cheap, meaning mostly from within. I don’t like Volquez as an option, except maybe as long man. At the start of a game he’s terrible, which would seem to disqualify him as a relief pitcher. He’s both wild in terms of walks and “wild in the strike zone” in terms of giving up HRs on mistake pitches. As a closer he would be a nightmare.
@Sultan of Swaff: Wouldn’t that be something? Going from being offered a long term deal as potential staff ace to the bullpen in one season. Bam.
The way I see this all shaking out is by Votto getting traded. The rumor of the deal w/ Toronto was very telling IMO. I think the best thing to do at this point is get Alonso and Sappelt as many at bats as you can. If they prove themselves, I think you’ll see Joey or Stubby traded in the offseason. First, you formally ask Votto to move to LF. If he agrees, you trade Stubbs. If he refuses, you trade him……but for what?? If it were my team, I’m looking to acquire a premier pitching talent rather than a bat, somebody like a Josh Johnson.
@Sultan of Swaff:
Really!? Trade Joey Votto for an elite pitcher in Johnson who hardly EVER can stay healthy!? Are you crazy?! The only thing I’m trading Votto for is Bryce Harper, Steven Strausburg, the Nats 2nd best pitching prospect, Drew Storen, and Michael Morse.
Yonder will be closer to Sean Casey production rather than Joey Votto production. Yonder will be a good hitter, but it will be more doubles than homers. I’d rather have the MVP production.
Alonso at age 23 (AAA): 445 PA, .296 BA, .355 OBP, .470 SLP, 31 doubles, 12 homers
Alonso at age 24 (AAA): 409 PA, .296 BA, .374 OBP, .486 SLP, 24 doubles, 12 homers
Votto at age 23 (AAA): 580 PA, .294 BA, .381 OBP, .478 SLP, 21 doubles, 22 homers
Votto at age 24 (majors): 589 PA, .297, .368 OBP, .506 SLP, 32 doubles, 24 homers
Darnell McDonald sighting: He scored the game winning run for Boston as a pinch runner last night. I’m seeing the LF problem being taken care of friends. Let’s go get him back.
So many problems are solved by simply moving Votto out to LF. Its kind of ridiculous that they haven’t done so already. It’s not like he’s never played out there and he seems like a team player. If he resists, tell him about Pete Rose, Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, etc. If he can just play average to slightly below average defense, he’s still greater than what running out Gomes/Lewis gave us. He has to see that he’s more valuable as an OFer anyway.
@CP: It sounds like Baker has no interest in playing Alonso. (Just from the sense of reading the Enquirer.)
I don’t think I can remember a season where the rookies have been so impressive as a group. Cozart, Frazier, Alonso, and Sappelt all appear ready to play in the MLB. This season has sucked and it is difficult to remain both optimistic and objective, but the future remains bright for the organization. Perhaps this year was the necessary fire to clear out all the deadwood in the organization. We’ll see how far the fire spreads…sometimes you get the feeling Dusty is playing with gasoline.
Joey Votto has only played six major league games in LF. He was drafted as a catcher at age 18. He’s played seven minor league games at catcher, 19 at third base at age 18. In AAA at age 23, to accomodate the GREAT Scott Hatteberg (ahem), Votto played 42 games in the outfield and scored a -5 zone rating (five runs worse than average in only 42 games). That move is not going to happen.
Yonder was drafted as a first baseman and played there from ages 21-23. He’s played 92 minor league outfield games (no zone rating listed) and six major league games.
Votto made three errors with a 1.85 range factor in those 42 games. Yonder has made only one error, but has a lower 1.47 range factor. Concerning Pete Rose’s move to third base, many forget he came up as a second baseman (one reason Perez was moved away from 2b) and Rose had previously played 3b, too (albeit briefly).
As for Perez-May–initially May was tried in the outfield and that didn’t work out either–so Perez was moved to 3b–but, he had played there for several years in the minors (as mentioned previously).
@Steve Mancuso: I’m wondering how much Frazier would really play. Suppose he picks up most of the work Rolen doesn’t. It would be most, not all, because Cairo needs to stay sharp. Mostly he also plays LF, which is bound to be crowded. I worry he wouldn’t get nearly enough playing time to stay sharp, as a younger player. He’s not mature like Cairo and used to the role.
Honestly, this team needs Rolen to be pushed out.
Frazier already has more than half the home runs Rolen has this year, in something like a week of playing time.
As for Frazier–he’s been primarly a LF in the minors–he’s had some utility basis:
177 games in LF, 112 games at SS (last done in A ball in 2008), 88 at 3b, 72 at 1b, 39 at 2b.
For the past couple of years at Louisville, it’s been Yonder at 1b, Francisco at 3b, and Frazier in LF. There hasn’t been a lot of positional switching with them.
@Steve Price: I agree. In fact last week I said my hope for Alonso is that he produce like Sean Casey did in his best seasons. Alonso is a different kind of hitter from Votto: a line drive, contact hitter.
@Steve Price: You do realize how incomplete those defense metrics are, right? They are just so subjective without significant data samples that they make me feel icky after looking at them. Look the dWAR stats…right now, Carlos Lee has a dWAR of 1.9 and Jay Bruce has a -.9. Lance Berkman has a -.8. Rigggggghhhhht.
Citing Votto TZ ratings for a very, very, very small data sample (I’ve read anything smaller than 3 full seasons is pretty much garbage), is just kinda odd. I actually doubt the Reds would move Votto but that doesn’t mean that they SHOULDN’T do so. Trying to make a non-athlete into a LF seems less efficient than turning the athlete into one. Like I said, even if he is mediocre out there (read: Ryan Braun or Jose Bautista), he’s equal to what we’ve had.
That was a minor point in my comment, only to emphasize how poor both would actually be out there (very small sample agreed and incomplete). The real evidence is that managers have refused to play them in the outfield because they don’t have that ability.
As for athletic ability–Votto is a converted catcher, not a converted outfielder. It’s taken him forever to learn to be a competent first baseman.
As for whom to trade—you keep the star who can carry a team, not the complementary player. Alonso’s (line-drive hitters) can be found in many places. Casey was not a great player–he was an all-star on a poor team; a pinch-hitter on an excellent team. He was a great guy, a good player, and a great PR guy—but, if a guy like Casey (or Alonso) is playing first base, the team had better make up the lack of production from a lesser position–such as shortstop. Obviously, that’s not happening on our team at this point.
Votto is the production.
As Bill James said on his website when asked about the Astros trading Hunter Pence….the best they could hope to get was a player who might be as good as Hunter Pence sometime down the road. Pence (nor Votto) are old or past their primes. They have years of production left. The team has to PAY SOMEBODY to be a leader and provide production for the team….pay Bruce and Votto to carry the team, plus 1-2 pitchers that develop enough, and then surround them with complementary players. Trade the older guys as they go past prime and younger guys (like Stubbs, Francisco, Frazier, Alonso) who don’t fully develop to their hoped for potential.
Trading your only stars for a hoped-for future would make us a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates of the 90′s and 00′s….
@Dave Lowenthal: I think I feel better about how Cordero has pitched this season than you do, but it doesn’t matter because I agree with your prediction for CoCo in 2012 – the Reds should let him go. If they do let him go the Reds will be tempted to make Chapman the closer. But there’s hope they won’t, because Chapman’s arm recovers slowly from relief outings – he has trouble pitching two days in a row.
The Reds are waiting for Boxberger, and if he’s not ready to close in2012 hopefully they find a good 1 year solution – Sam LeCure might work.
@Dave Lowenthal: Yeah, it’ll be real interesting (and probably depressing) when Francisco gets back. Frazier has been impressive and though he doesn’t have the huge upside of Francisco, he doesn’t have his huge downsides either. You just feel like the Reds’ GM is going to make a huge mistake. Some team is going to pull off a epic win trade and take the guys the Reds couldn’t/wouldn’t push aside aging vets for. You just have to hope the guy(s) the Reds get back are a good value in return.
@reds_fan: Ha, I’m crazy for wanting Josh Johnson because he’s an injury risk, then you roll out Strasburg as a healthy alternative. @Steve Price: I think Tino Martinez is the better comp for Alonso. Their minor league numbers are very similar.
As for trading Votto, no one is arguing his production is clearly better, but when you consider his looming free agency and the return he’d bring in a trade, a GM has to do his due diligence and figure out if the team could be improved by trading him. Colorado just made a similar judgement with Jimenez.
Tino Martinez at age 23 had an OPS 100 points higher than Yonder Alonso:
Alonso at age 23 (AAA): 445 PA, .296 BA, .355 OBP, .470 SLP, 31 doubles, 12 homers
Martinez at age 23 (AAA) 535 PA, .326 BA, .428 OBP, .548 SLP, 34 doubles, 18 homers
Power numbers were similar (agreed), but Martinez drew 82 walks. Alonso had 37 walks at AAA (he had 19 more walks in 121 AA plate appearances).
Martinez, like Votto, spent their age 24 year in the majors. Alonso was still at AAA.
@Steve Price: What do people think of Francisco as a defensive 3rd baseman ? I’m not talking about his major league performance, where he’s made a lot of errors and been erratic. I’m asking about how he’s played this season at Louisville and his quickness. If he’s a good defensive 3rd baseman, his Willy Mo Pena hitting style might be tolerable.
I’ve been impressed by Frazier’s bat, but he plays 3rd base like a LFer. And quick reactions can’t be taught.
@CP: Despite my question above, asking about Francisco’s defense at 3rd base, I do not look forward to his return.
Francisco’s “approach” at the plate does not work at the major league level, and he’s not even showing much at AAA this season.
Frazier is a much better all around player, I like him as a super sub (at the least) in 2012.
@Sultan of Swaff: I could definitely see Alonso as a future Tino Martinez.
@pinson343: He’s quick and has a good arm. But he’s also just 2 years removed from making 39 errors at 3B in a single season. A good description of his defensive career would be that he’s made “lot of errors and been erratic.” He has the potential to be a plus defender but he’s very much in the mold of EE.
@Steve Price: Trading away Joe Adcock is sometimes cited as one of the worst trades in Reds history.
I’m one who’s written about the Adcock trade on this site. It was a bad trade, but he was the right guy to trade between he and Kluszewski. The problem was the Reds (Redlegs) only received utility infielder Rocky Bridges in return (it was a four-team trade).
@CP: Got it, thanks. I loved EE’s quickness and kept expecting him to become less erratic defensively.
Francisco has no quickness. He’s a big lumbering guy with a very strong but inaccurate arm. His defense is non-existent.
Correction: “I like LeCure, but if he’s on the roster at all … “
@Steve Price: When talking about Sean Casey, I’m careful to distinguish his “most productive” seasons from his other seasons. I have said I’d be happy if Alonso reaches Casey’s productivity in those seasons. They would be:
1999 .332/.399/.539 in 669 PAs
2000 .315/.385/.517 in 545 PAs
2004 .324/.381/.534 in 633 PAs
After (or late in) the 2000 season, Sean hurt his shoulder (I think) and was not the same until the 2004 season, when he had a one season comeback.
When you mention his being a “pinch hitter on an excellent team,” that applies to many of his seasons, but certainly not those three.
The Reds of course won 96 games in 1999, and 86 in 2000. After that was the long string of losing seasons, but in 2004 they were in it for a while and led the NL in the important offensive categories like runs. During those years, Casey was an impact player.
@Steve Price: I’m definitely not a proponent of trading Votto. For the right price I’d consider it, i.e. Bautista but Fay’s article was so tabloid-esque that it is difficult to give any weight to it. I read my post again and saw that it could be read that way. I’m just of the opinion that, if the Reds are going to keep Joey and Yonder, that you move the more athletic of the two to LF. I know Joey won’t be a great fielder but its hard to believe that he’d be worse than Dunn or Gomes. But then again, maybe he could be? Yonder is looking pretty bad out there after all. It really just feels like with Yonder, that they’re trying to a square peg into a round hole.