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If you have read Redleg Nation for any length of time, you know that I’m a big fan of Reds shortstop Paul Janish. Love the guy. However:
With the Reds currently sitting 2.0 games out in the competitive National League central, I’d be curious to learn why the organization is operating as if the league worst -.5 WAR Cincinnati shortstops have produced is not a key factor in the team being in third place instead of first.
At present, there may not be a more obvious call up candidate in all of minor league baseball than Zack Cozart based on AAA production and need at the big league level. Common sense would say the call could come at any moment since Cozart is already on the 40-man roster.
It almost makes too much sense.
The only explanation is that some combination of Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty don’t want to admit their mistake with Edgar Renteria. Part of Cozart being the “most obvious call up” in MLB is that Renteria is the “most useless player” in the league.
At a minimum, the Reds need for Renteria to get “hurt” so they can use the pretext to put him on the DL and start easing him out. His liabilities at the plate and in the field have to be blindingly obvious to DB and WJ.
The only explanation is that they are trying to trade for another player and Cozart is a part of that discussion. If that’s not the case then its probably getting pretty close to incompetence from quite a few people.
@Steve: I don’t think that’s the only explanation. Others could be (1) they don’t want to go with a rookie, (2) they don’t understand how to evaluate, (3) they really believe Janish will catch fire (for him) in the second half.
I suppose trade bait (mentioned) is another.
I disagree with them, but trying to get inside the heads of two incompetent people when it comes to player evaluation is rather hard.
Considering how many teams have no real solution at SS (TB, SEA, OAK, SF, PIT, HOU, MIL even though trading to a division rival is not advised), the market value for a good defensive shortstop hitter with some power is very high. Considering how pitching-rich some of those teams are (especially the AL teams mentioned), Walt may be doing a bit of fishing here. I will give him the benefit of the doubt, for now, especially since it’s not brain-Dusty who is making this decision.
However, if this is the case, he can still put Cozart in the bigs, and give him a chance. So, is he holding back Cozart because he fears his market value will go down by underperforming expectations? That’s my guess, and I would do things differently.
Agreed Chad, though it pains me to say it. And only for emotional reasons and none that make any sense… I say keep Janish and make him a super sub, DR 4Rent (even though he would need to be waved first).
BTW – When I read yesterday on Fay’s blog that WJ and DB are happy with the team right now my head exploded. I’m still looking for the pieces.
@TC: On Father’s Day no less. Did someone help you locate the pieces?
Note that they didn’t just say they were happy, they implied directly they are satisfied with the play of the shortstops. Good lord. An OPS+ of around 50 for the position, and 13 errors. And Renteria’s errors have at least a little relation to Janish—if Janish were hitting .600-.650, Renteria wouldn’t play.
Maybe we as fans could do something, like when Ron Burgundy tried to get rid of Veronica Corningstone on Anchorman. Call the Reds stadium, ask to speak to Edgar, “this is Mike Rithjin, from MLB. You’ve just been promoted. You’re gonna need to move to Moscow…. Start cleaning out your locker… see you in the morning… we’ll pick you up in a van.”
Cozart in background: “Tell him he might want to get a coat!”
Me: “also, I don’t know if you know Moscow. It’s pretty cold. You might want to buy a coat.”
Sorry, workplace boredom :/
Seriously though, the shortstop act is getting old. Having two pitcher’s spots in the lineup is no good. I’d love to see Cozart and Sappelt get a shot at the big leagues. They certainly can’t do any worse than what we’ve seen so far.
The reason he is not up here is pretty simple….
A) He’s just not that good because Walt and Dusty know talent and just don’t see him as ML material
B) He doesn’t bring to the table the veteran creaminess and WS rings and MVP awards that Edgar does.
C) There is nothing wrong with the SS position as it stands right now
I’m not in favor of installing Cozart as the starting shortstop. I do favor (immediately, as in 11:30 this morning) releasing Edgar Renteria and calling up Cozart for the utility infielder role.
Cozart is having a great season in AAA, but hasn’t proven anything yet at the major league level. There is reason to expect his batting average and OBP to be inflated, even for AAA.
I think Paul Janish hits well enough to play SS for this Reds lineup considering the stellar defense he provides.
Someone made a good point here a couple of days ago, that because Cozart is not much of drop off defensively, you could afford to pinch hit for Janish late in a game if the situation arises.
@Steve: Steve, that was my point, but I’m not sure it stands considering that Dusty won’t pinch hit for the 8 hitter and the 9 hitter both, without one of those pinch hitters being Cozart (which defeats the purpose).
That said, I don’t understand why you are hesitant to stick Cozart in the lineup. I’ve been resistant to it for a while because I want to give players a while to achieve their expected numbers….but jeez, Janish looks like he IS achieving his expected numbers. And Cozart ought to be able to do as well…a low bar. You say “inflated”, and I agree, but again, he only needs to post a .700 OPS to be more valuable than Janish, even considering the defensive advantage Janish provides (I’m guessing a bit here, but that’s almost 200 points of OPS.)
Also, I don’t agree with the “he plays good enough defense to compensate for being an offensive liability”. If he batted .000, he would need to go, so I ask: what level of offense would be too low to be acceptable for Janish? (To me, it’s the current level.)
You have all miss the point! It.s about MONEY nothing else! They signed Renteria for 2million plus Gomes gor 1.6 million they will be there till the end of the season. All the talk about are minor league teams is just talk
.The reds are too cheap to pay a player just to sit! No trade no call ups. As weak of a team St. Louis is they still win with there players please explain?
why not make a play for jamey carroll? .376 OBP would look good in the lineup
I think what we’re seeing here is an emphasis on defense at SS (except when Renteria plays) and an unwillingness to install a rookie. I think the focus should be on LF. If they can get an upgrade there somehow, it would be easier to live with a defense-only player at SS. Further complicating matters is leading (or being near the top of MLB) in runs scored. It’s making them think that their offense is not an issue, or that a marginal offensive upgrade at SS would be minimized by the defensive downgrade.
@nelly33: Caroll’s OPS is probably .377. I’m with Steve, use Cozart as the backup SS for now. Cozart only has 17 walks in 260 ABs. To me, that says his ability to hit at the major league level will not be easy, but yes, it’s still better than what we have now.
@royhobbs: Walt name checked Hermida over the weekend. It leads me to believe he would get the call over Sappelt or anyone else. Looking at Hermida’s numbers, it’s hard to disagree. At the same time, his veteran-ness gives the GM political cover.
Hermida’s a weird case. He had a really good year in the bigs as a 23 year old. What’s the scoop?
Sappelt isn’t ready for the call. He’s much like Bruce. Tearing up AAA but not taking many walks. Once pitchers realize they can throw junk out of the zone, he’d likely be meat until he made the adjustment.
I dont know why people worry about their BB% so much. It would be 1 thing if they were striking out at 20%+ and walking at less than 10% but a 2:1 ratio really isnt bad and to be honest is quite normal.
@Sultan of Swaff: I’m also concerned about the small difference between Cozart’s (high, admittedly) BA and his OBP, but still–factor in a 200 point drop in OPS, and you’ve still got a winner there.
@royhobbs: Again—what kind of upgrade do you think you could get over a Lewis (or Heisey) // Gomes platoon.
Really. Give me an OPS that you could get that is going to beat that platoon.
You definitely can find one, but it’s going to cost a LOT. Why not just go with the .800 to .850 OPS they could probably get just going
with the platoon?
AP reporting Pujols out 4-6 weeks.
@Dave Lowenthal:
Well, I said upgrade and that’s one way to upgrade. The problem is that it involves doing things differently. Gomes still gets time against RHP and so does Heisey. I can’t really tell what Dusty is doing other than making decisions based on small samples against whoever is pitching on a given day. Not sure you’re going to get .800 to .850 out of that combo, though. I’d rather try Hermida over Lewis.
@Steve: Wow.
Bernie Miklasz today wrote (before the extent was known): “Early reports are encouraging, although Cards specialize in premature, optimistic injury reports”.
Like I was saying, the Cards are worse than the Reds in this regard.
The Cards are really being hit hard this year. You might not stand them, but you’ve got to give them credit for hanging around with
all of their key injuries. Seems the break is to the forearm and not the wrist, which increases the chance he comes back ok. If it was
the wrist, that’d be bad.
love this
for my own mental health I have to tell myself at least 3 times a week. Quit trying to get inside these peoples heads.
I would love to hear what Walt and Dusty feel Edgar brings to this team that Cozart doesn’t.
Seriously, from their perspective, you can’t cut your #1 off-season move less than half-way through the season. Not only would you look terrible to the fans, but what would the owner — who is writing checks for more than $2 million to ER — think of you?
Of course, running him out on the field isn’t exactly covering up that mistake, either.
@Steve: Pujols has been playing with fire for a while now. He routinely puts himself in the line of the runner. On yesterday’s play, he made a couple blunders. First, he had his wrong foot on the bag, limiting his reach. Second, this negated his ability to stretch and take the short hop, so his only choice was to stride toward the baseline, allowing him a longer look at the hop. Let’s not forget he turned off his mental clock.
Heck, even on plays where he takes a grounder by himself, you’ll find him crossing over the bag instead of touching the bag with his foot and then stepping backward. I don’t feel for the guy, and of course, the Cardinals threw at a Royals player in retaliation, like it was their fault…..although Pujols got buzzed w/ an inside pitch earlier in the game, maybe it was that. He proceeded to stare down the pitcher, even though the ball missed him by a foot. Again, it’s this paranoid persecution complex built up around that team that makes them such nutjobs.
@Sultan of Swaff: That reminds me. The last couple of times I’ve watched Votto hold runners on first base, he seems to be standing with his right foot at the bag instead of straddling the base. Bobby Valentine went on (and on) about how Votto was doing it wrong in the televised game. So maybe Joey has changed now.
@Sultan of Swaff:
“and of course, the Cardinals threw at a Royals player in retaliation, like it was their fault….although Pujols got buzzed w/ an inside pitch earlier in the game, maybe it was that. He proceeded to stare down the pitcher, even though the ball missed him by a foot. Again, it’s this paranoid persecution complex built up around that team that makes them such nutjobs….”
given how the Cards reacted to CoCo hitting Pujols way back when, i think it likely the reason that you gave above.
Now it will be interesting how the Cards front office reacts, for example will they give up a top pitching prospect to get Reyes from the Mets to help bolster the lineup as an example.
Go 2011 Reds!
No Cueto today, I’m eager to hear why.
I thought the object was to put the best team on the field. To me it’s real simple, you go to Bob and say…Bob we feel right now it’s best if we cut times with Edgar and bring up Cozart at this time. If Bob says NO then Bob doesn’t care about winning….
Cueto says his neck is bothering him: “Maybe I’ll pitch tomorrow.”
Hope he’s OK by Wednesday, would like to see him pitch in this series.
You guys may be right on Zack Cozart really giving the offense a lift. But I agree with Steve too. They’re not gonna dump Renteria before the season is even half over. Especially only 2 games back.
My feeling is that the Reds management is just waiting for this team to break out, and as long as they stay 3-5 games out of first place why would they make any major moves? Not saying I really agree totally with the strategy but I understand it.
Baseball is full of mediocre teams this year it seems. The Reds are one of them, and are still banking on last year’s success and I think they feel this team hasn’t hit its stride yet.
Offensively, I think the problem may be more with Stubbs and Phillips in the 1 and 2 hole. Is Drew Stubbs really a Major League leadoff hitter? It seems the Reds offensive success depends a lot of Stubbs and Bruce hitting.
I think it’d be great to see Phillips and Stubbs hitting 6th and 7th in the Reds lineup. Or 5th and 6th. They need a leadoff hitter, someone who doesn’t strike out 200 times a year. Sometimes I think, we’re giving a guy who strikes out a ton the most at bats on our team, the most chances to do some offensively, and he many games doesn’t put the ball in play much. Don’t get me wrong, I like Stubbs, but I think he’d be better off down in the lineup.
I keep reading where people are waiting for this team to “break out”, well after watching this team play something like 70 games…exactly what do you expect? They are what we see, a nice team that is around .500. Why do people think this team is going to break out under it’s current construction?
It doesn’t seem like they are gonna break out, but it’s a long season man. I think they need some help somewhere, but I dunno. I can understand the mentality of waiting for them to break out too. Besides the Phillies, I think every other team in contention is hoping their team just breaks loose from the pack and wins 9 out of 10 or something like that.
I’m not sure what it’ll take for the Reds to do that though. An outside move? Or is it a matter of Phillips, Stubbs, Bruce getting hot? For an offense that leads the league in runs, every night I like at their lineup and it doesn’t inspire me too much! They have a strange offense. Jeckyl and Hide I guess.
@dn4192: i don’t know if i expect a huge break out, but i expect them to add games over .500 for this reason: the pitching in the first two months was worse than it will be going forward.
in april our pitchers had a 4.26 ERA, 11th in the NL, and we were 13-13.
in may it was 4.42, 14th in the NL, with a 14-15 record.
in june so far it’s 3.16, 5th in the NL, and we’re 10-7.
coming in to the year i thought we had a top 3 offense and a middle of the pack (5th-8th) pitching/defense.
the first two months we played with a top 3 offense and a bottom tier pitching/defense. now it’s starting to come around, and that will lead to us being above .500.
on cozart and left field, i think that this is just a classic example of bad decisions made worse by sticking with them. they added renteria and lewis for over $3mil, when anyone with a clue about talent evaluation could see they weren’t going to be better than who we had in house.
but the club wanted to look like they were doing something, and wanted more vets in the clubhouse, and now we’re stuck with them.
i guarantee if frazier and cozart had been on the team from the start, we would be no worse off in the standings, and would have $3mil in payroll flexibility.
Also, just thinking more about the Red’s offense, look at this OPS list:
Joey Votto 0.955
Jay Bruce 0.880
Ramon Hernandez 0.871
Chris Heisey 0.768
Drew Stubbs 0.749
Fred Lewis 0.739
Jonny Gomes 0.736
Sam LeCure 0.733
Miguel Cairo 0.729
Scott Rolen 0.722
B. Phillips 0.712
Ryan Hanigan 0.698
Mike Leake 0.593
Edgar Renteria 0.550
Paul Janish 0.530
Anything stand out? To me, it’s got to be Rolen and Phillips. our two clean up hitters coming into the year are getting out-hit by Miguel Cairo and Sam Lecure. The two of them really need to turn it around.
Also, when Leake pitches, he should bat ahead of the shortstop.
You know, we all give WJ a lot of credit for the Reds’ turnaround, and much of it is well deserved.
But he has made many moves that just make me scratch my head, the main move being the signing of a clearly washed-up Renteria for way too much money ($2 M).
It seems to me that Walt doesn’t want to admit defeat by releasing Edgar and calling up Cozart. It just makes me really mad that such an apparently easily remedied situation is being ignored for the main fact that Jockettey doesn’t want to swallow the 2 million.
If this was any town besides Cincinnati, the public outcry would have forced the move by now.