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I don’t have time to parse it, but Tom Groeschen has a pretty good piece up about Brandon Phillips’ defense. Lots of interesting quotes in there from BP and Joe Morgan, and from Marty Brennaman, who makes the claim that Phillips is the best defensive second baseman he’s seen in all his years on the job. High praise, indeed.
Is that glove made of gold? (The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger)
He’s a human highlight reel, that’s for sure, but where he takes it to the next step is that he never seems to take plays off.
What was the critique of Edwin Encarnacion when he was here? He’ld make those spectacular plays and throws, then a easy two hopper right to him would end up in the 1st base seats/dugout/tarp/etc. DatDude is always right in the glove of Votto.
Oh, here we go…bring on the “we must extend him no matter what the cost even though he’s on the wrong side of 30″ brigade.
@The Singing Bush: Oh, here we go…bring on the “human beings can’t play sports after their bodies turn 30 years old even if their skills are clearly still improving” brigade.
How many players in major league history have improved after age 31?
@Chad Dotson: Well, there was Barry Bonds, and Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa, and…oh, um, never mind.
@The Singing Bush: Lol… that’s great. Made me truly laugh out loud.
@Chad Dotson: He doesn’t need to IMPROVE, but if he stays relatively level over, say, the next 3 years and then starts to have a normal dip around age 34-35 then a 4 year extension still seems like a good move.
To be fair, I don’t think any reasonable person expects BP to improve from what he is right now, nor do they think he’s worth signing “no matter what the cost”. At least I don’t think so, and I haven’t seen too many posts claiming either of those things.
That being said, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that his offensive or defensive productivity would be matched by any of our prospects, either. Thus, it would be good if they can find a way to sign him to a reasonable contract.
@eric nyc: My argument has never been that he (or any other player over 30 for that matter) won’t be able to play, or even play productively. It has always been that he is going to cost too much and demand too many years. I hope the Reds pick up next year’s option. If he has another great year, he’ll be 31, coming off a couple of very productive years. If he doesn’t just blindly sign a reasonable deal with the Reds (in the same neighborhood of what he’s making now for 3-4 more years), someone is going to wildly overpay him. I hope it’s not the Reds who are paying $20 million a year for a 36-year-old 2B, when that money would be more wisely spent on locking up Votto. It is much more crucial to the team’s future success that Votto stays.
@The Singing Bush: I agree he’s not worth $20 million/year, but I dont’ think even he would suggest that. Cliff did a really nice breakdown in one of the Recap threads a few nights ago about the top 5-6 2nd baseman contracts in the league. BP had said he’d be willing to take an average of those which would be somewhere in the $15/million four year range, plus the option for next year. That’s a big contract, yes, but also perfectly doable – especially with a lot of salaries coming off the books next year in Cordero, Gomes, Rolen, Renteria, Hernandez, to name a few. I think we can all agree this is the best Phillips has ever played. That, to me, says he’s at his peak. And an athlete like BP probably has at least 2 years AT his peak, and then another year not significantly below it. That takes him to 33 still playing at an All Star level. After that you have him on the books for 2 years, still likely playing at a very high level (Rolen’s still winning Gold Gloves at 36) but at the absolute least as the veteran leader of the team. All sounds reasonable to me.
As for Votto, a contract for BP (or Stubbs, Bailey, etc) isn’t going to be the deciding factor with Votto. Only Votto is going to decide that. We offered him more years on his latest contract, he turned them down. Joy doesn’t know where he wants to be in10 years, and who knows when he’s going to decide. We won’t make any move in the next 3 years that will prohibit us from making him a good offer when the time comes, but he’s the one who’s going to have to make the decision. There’s no reason to let a guy like BP walk in the meantime because Joey hasn’t made up his mind yet.
P.S. That “$15 million four year” bit doesn’t look right to me now, but I can’t find the post cliff made…should have bookmarked it. It was really thorough.
@BenL:
Agree 100%
@eric nyc: I think anything more than a 3 year extension is too much; I think he’s going to be looking for longer (I know I would); and I think he’s going to get it. Even at $15MM instead of $20MM, that’s too much for a 36 or 37 year old. That is an inefficient use of capital.
Using Rolen is not really a good comparison, as he can really only be counted on to play 120 games. That, and 2B requires more range and athleticism than 3B, which will make his decline more evident when it starts.
And can we all agree that Gold Gloves don’t mean anything? Jeter won it last year, remember?
Marty says the kid is fielding as well as anyone he’s ever seen at second. Let that sink in for a moment…….
@The Singing Bush: I don’t know how we jumped from a 3 year deal to a 7 year deal. NO one’s giving BP a 6-7 year deal. But I think a 4 year extension in addition to the option next year, taking him to 35 years old, is reasonable. It’s probably a hair on the long side, I’ll give you that, but we overpay a hair for team loyalty and because he’s one of the leaders. It’s not a gross overpayment, in my mind. And like BenL said, the drop off behind him at the prospect level is HUGE.
@eric nyc: 37-31=6. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that a team will sign a 31 year old for 5 or 6 years. Don’t believe me? Ask Jayson Werth.
One more thing about BP: BP is the type of player a team may be able to afford to overpay for. He’s popular with the fans and fun to watch, has a big friendly smile, and is willing to invest time in promoting the team. In addition, his constant web-gemming draws national attention to a team that hasn’t gotten much in recent years. These things don’t directly result in wins, but they do have a monetary value, and that money offsets some of his salary. I don’t pretend to have any idea how much, but I’d bet it’s not negligible.
Also keep in mind that, at the absolute least, we will almost definitely renew his option next year. So he wouldn’t be testing any free agency waters until 2013 when he would be nearing 32. It would be in his best interests to sign a long-term deal with us THIS year, which would help us keep the number and length manageable. Plus, he has already said he really wants to stay here. I think ti gets done and any overpayment we make is minimal. I agree with BenL again, he has value beyond his WAR, which is already pretty good.
@eric nyc: i’ve come to your rescue :p it was a 4 year contract at 45-50M, so 11-13M per.
@The Singing Bush: NO ONE is saying to sign BP at all costs. its that type of hyperbole that makes it hard to take certain posts seriously. that being said, i dont know how you can tell me BP isnt worth 12M a year in aggregate value over four years. his value in the first two years would likely well outpace his salary, and even if he takes a slight dip on the back end of the deal, over the life of the contract he would still provide a lot of real value above his salary.
also something i didnt touch on a few days ago: the three highest payrolls in baseball are all set at second base for the foreseeable future,in Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, and Chase Utley. The two next biggest markets are the Dodgers and Mets, who are having financial difficulties to begin with and will probably not be in the running for top free agents for awhile. the next two largest markets are the Angels and Nationals, who seem to be committed to Howie Kendrick and some combination of danny espinosa/ian desmond at second base. the cardinals are will be paying roughly 75 million dollars to four players, assuming Pujols re-signs. The only big market team who could conceivable drive up the price would be the Stupid Cubs, who have 25M committed to two players, a 16M option on another, and are expected to pay at least 17M per to prince fielder. not to mention they are also having some financial issues as the newspaper industry declines. heir ownership derives most of their income through the industry.) their neighbors, the white sox, have their own young electric second baseman in Gordon Beckham. and the tigers will have approximately 54M dedicated to four players, with decisions to still make on players like Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Alex Avila, Scott Sizemore. oh they wont have a closer either.
i dont know exactly who you plan to foresee driving the bidding to such a high number, but i would love to know.
BP said he’d take X or Y…talk is cheap.
And BenL is right: BP’s flair (I’m thinking of Jennifer Anniston in “Office Space” here) will earn him an extra 1-2M per year, IMO.
He’s just not going to sign for 11M/year, and I don’t even think for 13. We’ll see, that’s for sure.
Also: Cliff, you make a good point about the Sox, Yanks, Phils; but have you considered that one of them might want to sign BP as a SS?
I don’t know why the Reds never considered it a few years ago. Sure, I don’t know if it’d be worth it, but what if he could play SS “well” (not great, but well). His value would increase even more.
–dave
Getting back to BP’s prowess with the glove, the play that really blew my mind came I think near the end of the season in 2007 against the Pirates in the bottom of the ninth with 1 out and the Reds up 1, when he caught this pop fly nearly half way down the right field line over his shoulder (ala Willie Mays) then threw a strike to home to catch a runner who tagged up for a game ending double play.
It was a mind-boggling play.
@Dave Lowenthal: i dont think we have any reason to apply “talk is cheap” to BP. everything he has said, he has done. hes never walked away from a statement even when it came to physical violence. (WLB’s) and he improved his patience upon entering the 2-hole this season because he knew it was what he needed.
also, i dont think a lot of teams are going to invest to move him to SS. the main concern people have here is his age, and no team is going to sign a second baseman to play shortstop after making a huge commitment to him at that age. i think he can play second no problem, but theres a lot more wear and tear on a shortstop, they make more plays. i dont think a team is going to pay a lot to move him there, where is totally unproven, and will probably project to being solid/slightly above average.
@earl: i remember that.
He started his career as a SS. Pretty sure the Indians moved him to 2B. But yeah, can’t imagine why anyone would give him a $45 million+ contract and then change positions.
I think he has made it clear he wants to remain here and while he deserves a raise and to be paid like one of the best if not the best second baseman, I do not think he will try and demand to be overpaid just that the reds give him a fair deal. and if he leaves nobody had better ever whine about who they put out there in his place because they will not be close to what he does for this team.
@eric nyc: Well, hypothetically, if Phillips could play SS, you don’t get many SS that hit like Phillips. Now you put, say, Valaika at 2B and the team’s offense goes up a good bit. Sure, I don’t know how he’d handle SS. He did come up as one, but as I remember, the Indians had Vizquel…end of that story.
I still think talk is cheap (directed to Cliff)—remember, agents negotiate deals, not players. I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m saying that out of the thousand times I’ve heard players say they want to sign, they’ll be reasonable, etc, maybe a couple of times it’s actually happened. The agents’ livelihoods are at stake when negotiating these deals. So I just do not believe Phillips will sign for whatever he said, was it the average of the top 2b? Hell, he would be *crazy* to do that.