Loading ...
Volquez certainly has #1 starter-quality hair. (The Enquirer/Michael Keating)
After surprising everyone last October by naming Edinson Volquez his starter for Game One of the National League Division Series, Dusty Baker has done it again. Baker announced today that Volquez will be the starter on Opening Day in 2011.
Bronson Arroyo is slated to pitch game two, with Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey following. Draw your own conclusions. Certainly, there is no surefire, slam-dunk ace starting pitcher on the Reds roster*, but does anyone not named Dusty think that Volquez is the Reds best starter?
“But Bronson is more of a long run guy,” Baker said. “You facing No. 1s — what’s Bronson’s ERA? 3.50? — that equals a lot of losses if he’s facing No. 1s. He’s fine with it. I talked to him about it. He feels that’s the best spot for him in the rotation.”
Obviously, the Reds are confident in Volquez.
“We’re very confident in Volquez,” Baker said. “It’s also who you think can handle it the best. Is Homer ready to be No. 1? Is Wood ready for No. 1? Is Leake ready for No. 1? Cueto just signed a 3-year contract and he’s (25) years old. He’s already got enough pressure to prove he’s worth the money.
“It’s a process of elimination.”
So there you go. Very interesting rationalizations by our intrepid manager. Make of that what you will.
Frankly, the Opening Day starter isn’t a very meaningful designation; it only puts Volquez in a class with Jimmy Haynes, after all. If it were up to me, I’d probably have Johnny Cueto or Bronson Arroyo making that start, but in the long run, who cares?
*Actually, that isn’t quite true. The Reds absolutely do have an ace starter. Unfortunately, they’d rather have him pitching out of the bullpen.
UPDATE: Our buddy Brian over at Chris Sabo’s Goggles doesn’t like this one bit…but then he looks at the Lidles and Remlingers and Hamiltons that have started previous Opening Days and calms down.
Over at Blog Red Machine, they’re fine with the decision.
Frankly, the Opening Day starter isn’t a very meaningful designation; it only puts Volquez in a class with Jimmy Haynes, after all.
Bravo.
This is the same thinking that got Volquez the playoff start and we saw how well that worked out…not a big thing in the long run, but still a sure sign of Dusty’s “logic”.
Well things get mixed up throughout the season anyways, so it won’t last that a team’s #1 goes against ours anyway. Bronson sure did deserve the start for what he gave us these last few years, but overall not a big deal.
“Actually, that isn’t quite true. The Reds absolutely do have an ace starter. Unfortunately, they’d rather have him pitching out of the bullpen.”
(sigh)
I kinda like the decision to put Volkie as the ace. I agree with the hard-soft methodology (innuendo aside), and I like Bronson going against other teams #2s, even though the rotations will inevitably be shuffled. Sure Volquez didn’t work out in the playoff game, but I think he’s poised to have a great year (2nd year after Tommy John, playing for big contract). If he’s on, he’s still probably the Reds best bet, and I think he’ll be on more often that not.
As for Opening Day starters, you forgot to mention past Reds greats like Mike Remlinger, Corey Lidle, and Joey Hamilton, who all gave us some very memorable openers.
“You facing No. 1s — what’s Bronson’s ERA? 3.50? — that equals a lot of losses if he’s facing No. 1s.”
I can’t even wrap my head around that logic. Is he saying the Reds won’t hit other teams’ aces? Is he saying that Bronson holding the other team to 2 1/3 runs over 6 innings won’t take home the pie? I just…I just…I just…I just love it.
I think my brain just broke.
Answering myself, I don’t think order matters that much. However, it seems that Dusty thinks it does, or doesn’t, and thought long and hard about it, or didn’t. Only he can say head scratchers like that…
I can say one thing with certainty though: Metalhead will not like this.
Haha yeah I can’t want to see him response
Well, I think Volquez was returning from injury last year and should be better this year. (should be). I’d expect Bronson to be a whole lot worse, frankly, as his peripherals were not so lofty as his W/L and ERA. If I had to guess which starter from the Reds will have the best ERA at the end of 2011, I’d guess Volquez. Of course, it is all pretty close between Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo and I’d throw Bailey and Wood into that mix as well–not a lot to differentiate them (between a 3.75 and 4.25 for any of them). Heck, not sure Leake or Maloney would be a whole lot worse than a 4.25 either, although I admit that I’m generally baffled by Leake when trying to project 2011.
Agree with Chad’s asterisk, but as I understand it, a lot of that taking their time with Chapman has to do with assimilation and less to do with raw talent. Obviously, if they do this right, Chapman has all the makings of a Randy Johnson. And if not, well, . . . that’s the worry with Dusty in a nutshell anyway.
Doesn’t anyone think this has something to do with the contract situation? It’s kind of like the Reds saying “hey, we’ll tab you as our number 1 starter for the most notable game of the media season, why don’t you throw us a bone?” Remember, Volquez has said that the deal is still on the table, and he even mentioned the Cueto and Arroyo deals in his interview.
@lookatthathat: Ohmygod, two of the funnier posts ever on this site. Well done, sir.
As the longest tenured Red, Arroyo deserved the honor. And that’s all it is, an honor. Please don’t try and explain it away in a baseball sense or you’ll break my brain too. Clubhouses, right or wrong, operate on a heirarchy system. This move doesn’t pay Arroyo the respect he’s earned. He’s a mellow dude and will get over it, but it doesn’t excuse the slight by Dusty.
The thing that I dont like about this is what it says (to me) about Arroyo’s competitiveness. I want all 12 guys on my pitching staff demanding the ball for big games. But Arroyo doesnt want to deal with all the distractions of opening day in Cincy.
@jrob45601: Bah. Arroyo throws 220 innings a year. What else do you want out of him? The man knows his strengths and maximizes them. Wasn’t there the whole discussion last year about Arroyo prefer night games to afternoon games anyway?
The other thing I’m sure a lot of people noticed is including Homer in the 4 spot. I realize that he is out of options and they are not ready to give up on him, but if both Wood and Leake (or anyone else) has a significantly better spring than Bailey, how willing will they be to go in a different direction?
It is mostly an honor, I agree, but I do think there’s something to having different styles of pitchers lined up in your rotation. Good pitching is good pitching, any day of the week, but I think it’s fair to break up similar style pitchers on back to back days.
Now as for his line about Arroyo’s ERA… yeah, that doesn’t make any sense. By that logic, Volquez 4.26 ERA should have him in line for way more losses, right?
@Matt WI: To add… why can’t it just be that Arroyo realizes what Chad pointed out: Opening Day isn’t that big of a deal unless you choose to make it so. A win in game two of the season is equal to a win in game one.
Arroyo’s ERA s 3.50 what is volquez’s? something over 4 right?yeh so he is the new staff ace because? well the reds traded a mvp player for him and by god one of these days he will pitch like one so we may as well start calling him that now. and I forgot some people on here will be happy if he wins 14-15 games a year and not 20 or a cy young. sorry when I hear the term ace I tend to think of the guys on the philles staff or Tim lincecomb and the giants young pitchers or even carpenter. but no according to the experts here volquez and queto and ther 5 inning max starts and 4 something era’s tp go along with the 12-15 wins the reds get from them are aces to. now comes the part they lay all their new fancy stats on me and tell me how wrong I am. once again I don’t care,spin it any way you want but the reds guys do not compare with who I just mentoned.
@Matt WI:
I would just like to see the veteran of the staff, who just happens to be the most reliable, stand up and tell the younger guys “This is how its done.” What happens if on the last day of the season we are tied and need a win to make the playoffs? You want Arroyo sayin “Look guys, I know its my turn, but there is just gonna be such a media circus. Plus its a day game. How bout you let someone else go, that way I can pitch the night game if we have a tomorrow?” I know its an over-exageration, but like I said. Dont just want the ball for those types of games. Demand it.
@jrob45601:
Well you’d certainly think they wouldn’t. After all, if Bailey’s out of options, what are you going to do, let him go? If he’s horrible during the regular season then maybe you have to make a change, but spring isn’t going to affect anything.
@jrob45601:
Arroyo pitched some meaningful innings in the 2004 ALCS. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the idea he can’t handle an opening day crowd.
@jrob45601: I get what you’re saying, but the difference is that in the last game of the season to make the playoffs, there actually is something on the line. Opening Day has nothing on the line other than it’s as important go get a win in April (March) as any other time. There are lots of ways to be competitive, and he’s never shown a reason to believe he’s timid.
He’s not afraid of the media, in fact he’s one of the most candid players out there (read his PED articles). I think he really just doesn’t care about Opening Day. What it does is teach the youngsters: This thing is won in the long haul, not just duly appointed media days. Everybody take a turn and win.
@lookatthathat: Someone should have warned you – Never try to wrap your brain around a Dusty Decision, or your brain will break…Sorry you had to learn the hard way.
@metalhead65: I have to give it to you – You are nothing if not consistent.
…If the Reds would have kept Hamilton he could have pitched opening day and bat clean-up. Whatcha think – A complete game shut-out and 4for5 at the plate with a homer and 6 RBI’s ?
@Brien Jackson:
I wouldn’t want them to give up on Bailey just yet either. And he certainly won’t pass through waivers unclaimed. But I have always thought he may be better suited in the back of the bullpen. His fastball is overpowering at times, and he has a good 2nd pitch. I wonder how serious are the issues about him warming up that have been floating around.
As for Arroyo, I would think that someone as laid back as he is wouldnt have any issues. But that was one of the things he talked about last year when he didnt get the opening day start that he deserved. I just think he chooses not to.
@metalhead65: (I know I promised to let these go, but..) First of all, to be the “ace” of the Reds’ staff, you have to be ON the Reds’ staff, ergo, Lincecum, Halladay, and Cy Young are not eligible and can not start opening day for the Reds. Secondly, IF the Reds had a 20 game winner on their staff, I’m sure he would be starting opening day. I’m also pretty sure that if Arroyo wanted the start he would get it, he just doesn’t want it day 1.
@Matt WI:
I agree that opening day isnt any more important than any of the other 161 games. Maybe he is just smart enough to realize that. If I were him, I would be more upset about all the talk of the Reds not having a pitcher that can match up to other teams’ number 1. And I would be determined to show everyone that I was good enough to do just that. Particularly if my own manager doesnt believe my 3.50 is good enough.
The downside to this decision is that it means hernandez will be the opening day catcher over Hanigan.
I know Bronson has said this in years past…but I don’t remember him saying it this year. Did he? I thought he said that he would take it Opening Day if that’s what Dusty wanted…or something like that.
I reiterate, he thought he was the best answer for game 1 of the playoffs, why does this surprise anyone?
I merely pointed out what a staff ace was in my opinon. now if you disagree with me and think that volquez is on the same leval as the guys I mentioned and is an ace pitcher then I want whatever it is your smoking! the guy has done nothing to be in same class as those guys let alone be the ace of a staff. and quit trying to tell me to stop talking about the trade,if volquez was more than just a prospect 4 years later I might give ground but he is not so I won’t. I know the guys I mentioned are not on the reds and the ony reason I mentioned them was because people keep pushing volquez as the reds ace,so I pointed out what a ace pitcher should be. not my fault you can’t handle the truth and that is volquez is not an ace and neither is queto for that matter. and once again you have guys on here saying it’s time for bailey to go yet proclaiming volquez an ace.
@Bill Lack: Yes, publicly, he basicly said he’d do it if Dusty wants him to. But, aplying the Mosaic Theory, that taken with his past comments about not wanting it and the fact that he and Dusty talked about it already this year, you can reasonably assume that Dusty would give him the start if he wanted. Arroyo just prfers not to have it. So instead of forcing it on Arroyo, he can give it to EV and more easily break up he and Cueto in the process. Admittedly, the ERA comment is odd and pointless. But that’s why we love Dusty…Right?
@metalhead65: For the record, I am a fan of Bailey’s as well and do not want him gone. My point was that the “Ace” is the best pitcher on the team. If Lincecum was on the Reds, he would be our ace. But he is not, so he is not relevant to the discussion of who IS our ace. I agree with you that we don’t have a true ace, like the guys you mentioned from other teams, but somebody has to start opening day and Arroyo doesn’t seem to want to do it, so it might as well be Volquez. I personally don’t see alot of seperation between any of our top 6 pitchers. But that’s also why I like our staff, b/c there won’t be much drop off from one start to the next.
Sorry but to me this is huge. It is just another example of how our manager is clueless.
1. There hasn’t even been 1 ST game yet and he makes the call now?
2. What does Wood have to do to get some love?
3. Why all the love for Chapman, yes he throw hard, so what. throwing hard doesn’t mean you can be a great pitcher. Before placing the ‘ACE’ label on him, why not see what he can do over more then just a few outings.
4. From his comments look like Dusty has already decided Leake won’t be coming north at the start of the season…another nice move there Dusty
@jrob45601:
If I were him, I’d be more worried that my manager doesn’t realize that teams #whatever starters don’t match up perfectly after the first week of the season.
@metalhead65: This is petty but I only say it because you get everybody elses name right in your posts and you write queto consistently: It’s Cueto. Not like Qdoba. Mmmm, burritos. Snack anybody?
@RiverCity Redleg:
I think that would make more sense if Dusty hadn’t given Volquez the start in game 1 of the ALDS last year. It’s pretty hard to look at those two decisions and conclude anything other than that Dusty thinks Volquez is his best pitcher.
@Matt WI: mmmm, I love me some QDoba.. and today is double rewards day for all of you QDoba Loyalty Card owners.
@Brien Jackson: That’s a valid point. I just prefer to stick my head in the sand (ostrich-style) when it comes to Dusty’s ridiculousness.
@Brien Jackson: I don’t know. I think Dusty’s decision to pitch Volquez against Halladay in the NLDS may have made a lot of sense exactly because Volquez was the third best pitcher. Noone we had would be a good matchup for Halladay. By conceding that game and pitching our #1 and #2 versus Phillies #2 and #3, Dusty may have increased our chances of winning the series. (Clearly it didn’t work, it’s not without its logic.)
I’m not saying that’s what Dusty is doing here. Greinke is no Halladay. I’m a bit perplexed (to me it should be Cueto if Arroyo was happier pitching day two), but honestly I think it doesn’t really matter that much. Arroyo will get his 200+ innings regardless of whether he pitches opening day or not.
Yet another example of misguided disgust aimed at Dusty. He has massaged this team masterfully since arriving. Leadership has been minimal. The defense was the worst in baseball when he arrived. This is the most fundamentally sound team than I can remember watching since 1994.
A few things about Dusty…
He does not make the roster. He did not sign Taveras, Cabrera, or Lewis. Jocketty did.
He alone does not decide the makeup or order of the rotation, nor did he during the NLDS. Jocketty and the front office clearly believe Volquez is the ace of the staff. Fans say he’s damaged goods and a bust considering what Hamilton has done. Jocketty said let’s offer him a 4 year deal. What does that tell you?
Dusty was lambasted a day or two ago for not playing Hanigan 162 games last year. Hanigan hurt his thumb, thus could not play 162. You need two catchers. If the Giants want Posey to play 162, they would be dumber than Jim Bowden.
Hanigan had never hit before last summer, and in 09 hit more singles than anybody I have ever seen in that small of a sample size. Yet he has been proclaimed a force. Hernandez was tearing it up when he got here in 09, then because of deficiencies in Walt Jocketty’s roster, ended up splitting time betwixt 1B and catcher, wearing him down and eventually leading to injury. That’s not his fault.
Janish has his own fan club yet has proven two things only.
He’s a great defensive backup.
He’s played very poor defense in the playoffs.
The guy has never played a full season or hit for an entire season as the starter. He couldn’t hit his way out of a bag of popcorn before 2010, yet somehow the organization was supposed to feel comfortable penciling him in for 148 games in 2010, and 2011? Apparently that is due dilligence on the part of the general manager.
Any other city in the country would be glad their team brought in the World Series MVP as insurance and roster depth. Cincinnati? Play the kid who hasn’t done a damn thing!!!
@Matt WI: Metalhead shuns all spelling and grammar. I brought it up once before, and it start a “fight”. At least we can assume he isn’t in denial about it based on his choice of username
Anywho, Volquez came back last year pretty early in the Tommy John recovery spectrum and exhibited what most pitchers struggle with on their initial return…lack of control. His xFIP was almost identical to what it was in 2008. I think Volquez will come close to returning to his 2008 form, and if he does, then he is our “ace”.
@TheNatural: Derrrr, started*
@BenL:
Punting a playoff game is never logical. The Reds had a better offense than the Giants last year, but SF managed to hit Halladay. And Lee after that.
Anyway, I suppose we can just shorthand this discussion by agreeing that Dusty Baker is an idiot.
@Brien Jackson: I guess I agree to agree on that point
But “punting a playoff game” is too strong a word for it. (I suppose so is “conceding”, which is the word I chose.) It was just tipping the balance of two games towards us, while tipping one game that was already slipping away farther in that direction.
@secondguessingfanbase: Bravo.
@secondguessingfanbase:
A few things about Jocketty…..
He signed all those guys you mentioned. I seriously doubt he was the one batting them leadoff for months with on obp around 300.
Janish is a great defensive shortstop. The entire team play horrible defense in the playoffs.
Janish hit better than Cabrera did last year. And Renteria.
Remember when Matsui won World Series MVP? He was replaced by Curtis Granderson. By the Yankees. Cause he was getting old, not hitting like he used to, and had become a defensive liability with a high chance of injury. So what he had a good week, that happened to be during the World Series? Think about it from the Giants point of view. They allowed their starting shortstop to sign with another team. And still allowed Renteria to leave as well. So he wasnt even in their top 2.
@jrob45601:
Adding to that, the Giants replaced Uribe and Renteria with a 36 year old 3rd baseman who had a ops of .693. Janish’s ops last year was .723
A few of the readers on here think they could handle a team better than most of the managers in baseball…which is absolutely hysterical considering you’re either in a cubicle or on your couch(bring on the responses, I can handle it). Nothing Dusty Baker could do would be the smart or right move according to some, because it’s just easier to take the opportunity to bag on him about every single thing he does. Find a new hobby. Your lame shtick has gotten tired(Brien).
1) He’s damned no matter what he does simply because you don’t like him. I’m sure at this point you don’t even know why…you just enjoy whining too much to bother figuring it out. 2) If the naming of the freaking opening day starter bothers you, I’m sorry, you may need help. 3) If I disagree with Baker(which I do often) I’ll say it. It’s just with a few of you it’s EVERYTHING. Give me a break.
Just be thankful it’s not Aaron Harang again and quit whining. Good God.
@jrob45601: I agree that Janish hit pretty well, but it was a small sample size. So comparing him offensively to Cabrera and Renteria is a little dishonest. Until we see Janish full time, we just don’t know. Well, I’m sure a few do, because Janish is surely a first ballot Hall of Famer based on what he’s capable of doing if only the evil dictator Dusty Baker would give him the chance.
Bull, it’s Dusty who decides whom plays, where they play and how much they play. The GM may sign the players, but if Dusty said…hey I don’t see him being a good addition, the GM is going to listen or consider it.
This team shines in spite not because of Dusty
@jdarts:
So accepting poor judgement is okay with you?
I’m not ready to proclaim Janish a very good hitter. But I dont think he is as bad as everyone says. I also realize that using his stats from last year only gives a relatively small sample size. But that’s not his fault, Dusty just wont let him hit enough to show what he can do. But if we do use last year, his ops of .723 would put him 8th among shortstops. Just below Alex Gonzalez, who most people say had a very good year. Ahead of guys like Elvis Andrus, who most people believe will be a star player. Jason Bartlett, who has been important to the Rays success. Ian Desmond, who had a pretty good rookie season. Theriot, who seems to be able to hit enough for St. Louis. Even better than Jeter last season.
I’m not saying he will ever be a good hitter. But he has shown plenty enough with the bat to get his chance. And that’s before you consider his excellent defense.
@secondguessingfanbase: Dusty?…Dusty is that you?…Welcome to The Nation Mr. Baker.
@jdarts:
“Nothing Dusty Baker could do would be the smart or right move according to some…”
Is it worth bothering to point out that when your argument is pretty much nothing but generalities like this, you don’t actually have an argument?
look I am as big a reds fan as thier is and because I point out the obvious does not make me less of one. second why is pointing out what a staff ace should be so bad?for some reason dusty has decided that volquez is and I merely pointed out what is an ace in my book. apparently you people are happy with guys who win 12-15 games and go 5 innings max and throw 100 pitches as your ace. maybe it’s ok for you but I would like the ace of my staff to be more like licecomb and the giants young staff. they have been around as long as cueto and volquez with much better results. in other words I am sick of hearing what great prospects the reds hurlers are and would like to see some results from the so called aces of the staff.
@jrob45601:
FWIW, I’m pretty sure the Yankees would have matched the Angels offer for Matsui monetarily. Rumor had it that the Angels promised Matsui some playing time in LF and the Yankees balked at that.
@metalhead65:
I’m interested into hearing your theory into which teams wouldn’t like their ace to be more like Tim Lincecum, since he’s very possibly the best pitcher in baseball right now.
@jrob45601:
I think Janish is likely to be a pretty poor hitter over a full season but:
a) His defense is still good enough that he should be worth at least as much as Renteria or Cabrera
b) It’s not like there aren’t teams with great fielding shortstops who don’t hit well in the big leagues.
@jdarts:
I admit that I hated the decision to hire Baker. That was based on the perception that he ruined Wood and Prior in Chicago, and that he didnt give young players a chance over declining vets. I have decided that the Chicago thing is just a bad rap, extra inning games aside.
My dislike for him now is based on his line up decisions, and the explanations he gives for some things. Such as insisting on having players with sub .330 obp in the top 2 spots. For months at a time, hoping they suddenly figure out how to do something they have never done before. Such as having Phillips playing with his bad hand toward the end of the season, and batting him leadoff the whole time. Such as playing Cabrera and Rolen in the playoffs, even though it was easy to see that niether was anywhere near 100% and were hurting the team. Continueing to play Gomes after he cooled down in July and never got hot again (remember what the back of his baseball card says, Dusty?).
I’m sure other fans could point out many other reasons similar to these.
dn4192, you’re right, Dusty makes the oft-criticized lineups, but if management brings in a guy regardless of the team and pays them a contributor’s salary, then the manager is responsible for putting them on the field to try to yield some results. The Reds simply lack speed, and where they do have speed, OBP and plate discipline has been a problem. Janish hasn’t played enough to say he should hit in front of Votto, and frankly when I have seen him in the 2 hole, he has been terrible. Hanigan maybe should get a shot there, but with his skill set, the bottom of the order fits him. Players don’t see good pitches down in the order. Hanigan is patient so he can make the best of that situation. Dusty doesn’t want the bottom of his order to turn into 3 automatic outs. That’s why we’ve seen Phillips and some of the retreads at the top of the order.
Gomes was playing because of a roster flaw by Walt. The team was short on outfielders, and as much as people love Heisey, he has shown even less in the bigs than Gomes has in his platooning career. I agree, Gomes played FAR too much last year, and IMO isn’t that good at the plate. We know he is a poor defender. This year we probably will see much less of Gomes. I’d like to see Lewis at the top of the order early in the year, with Stubbs behind him. Dusty has been knocked for placing speed above OBP as the determining factor for the top of his lineup. The difference this year is, the guys with speed can get on base regularly, unlike Patterson, Taveras and Phillips, even though he has been league average in OBP as a leadoff hitter for the Reds.
@secondguessingfanbase:
Maybe I read that wrong, but in the last 2 sentences you mention automatic outs, Phillips, and retreads at the top of the order.
1)I dont want any automatic outs in the 2 spots ahead of Votto.
2)Did you call Phillips a retread?
3)Retreads belong on the bench in supporting roles, behind young players who although they may not be better now, have a chance to improve. And that is the worst thing that Baker fails to do. I will throw in Jocketty with this one, cause he does have considerable say in which young players are in AAA and which ones are on the bench. But if a young guy is on your bench who would be at least as good and get better, that’s the manager’s fault.
I think Price might have had some say in the OD starter. It really doesn’t matter anyway, it’s blown up way too much in Cincy.
A good manager plays the best players that can produce a win, you don’t play players based on their pay. Did the Giants play their highest paid pitcher in teh playoffs and WS last year? NOPE.
I don’t believe anyone here has EVER said Janish should bat 2nd? You play him at SS and bat him 8th.
No but Dusty has had a 2 out top of the order how many times?
What are you basing your view of Heisey on?
I’m sure Dusty probably looks at Edinson Volquez through the rose colored lenses of that great start in 2008. Volquez definitely is betting on himself, as he turned down guaranteed money this off season hoping to be able to hit that big free agent lottery. He’s going to get his shot game 1, so let’s see how it goes.
It’s kind of a dead horse at this point in the wake of the no hitter and the faceplant start he had, but Volquez was pitching pretty well in his last few starts before the playoffs. I think the idea wasn’t bad, as was getting the strikeouts, it just didn’t work and to be honest it probably would have been a loss if it was Tom Terrific or Jose Rijo starting the game.
I don’t quite get the comment that Bronson Arroyo didn’t want to start opening day, it mentions in the article itself that he willing to start that day. To me, Arroyo is the pro in that staff. You need a guy to go on three days rest, pull in an extra start or push it an extra inning or two on fumes to save a pen – he’s the guy. Arroyo’s not great, but he’s there.
Phillips isn’t a retread. He was in the sentence b/c of low OBP.
Dusty hasn’t had high OBP players to work with. Now that he has a couple players that can get on base, let’s see how it plays out.
SF didn’t start Zito, but that is regarded as the worst contract in pro sports. They’ve taken as much heat for that as they will ever receive at this point. They had no choice but to limit his role. The Reds are notorious for putting a premium on low cost signings in the hopes that their handful of superstars will carry the freeloaders.
Of the Reds players who qualified for the batting title last year, 3 of the bottom 4 on the team in obp were Stubbs (.329), Phillips (.332) and Cabrera (.303!). But some combination spent the entire year in the top 2 spots of the order, while Hernandez (.364) and Hanigan (.405) split time in the 7 or 8 whole. I would call that giving outs away in front of Votto.
Now for this season, Baker is talking about Phillips (.316 career obp), Stubbs (.328) and Renteria (.344, but not higher than that since 2007). He said Lewis (.348) has to make the team before he can be considered for lead off. He did mention Bruce (.327, but .353 last year) as a possibility. But how likely is it that anyone but Stubbs and Phillips get the majority of the at-bats in the top 2 spots in the order?
@jrob45601:
To be fair, Stubbs does have a career .364 OBP in the minors, so considering how young he is, there isn’t necessarily any reason not to give him a chance at the top of the order.
@Brien Jackson:
Absolutely agree. Stubbs is the best man for the job, considering his skill set an minor leage obp. He hasnt shown that he can relax and perform in that spot though. Dusty had a quick hook with him last year, which was good. But he stayed with other guys way too long, even though they were not performing either. Considering the low obp in the top 2 spots, Rolen and Gomes doing nothing in the 2nd half (mostly from the 4-5 spots), its hard to believe that we led the league in runs scored. That comes from an unusually high success rate with runners on, particularly with 2 outs. I doubt that can be repeated. So hopefully Dusty gets 2 guys at the top who are getting on base much more than last year.
I had this exact same thought. Dusty doesn’t really believe that, does he?
Don’t feel bad. I’m the guy who proclaimed that he trusts Dusty in a post earlier today.
I don’t mind Volkie on Opening Day. Arroyo doesn’t seem to mind, it might help with the contract, and he has the stuff. Also no real suprise our starter in the playoffs was selected. I would have been suprised if he had not been.
I do have some early predictions for 2011.
1. Cordero returns to form and is one of the best closers in baseball
2. Arredondo will suprise everyone and become the primary set up man. He will be the heir apparent to the closer spot next season.
3. Janish will be a bust at the plate and will even fail to impress defensively over the course of the season. Renteria will be playing over 50% of the time by years end.
4. Rolen will play between 115-120 games.
5. If #4 doesn’t happen, no playoffs.
6. Chapman makes the rotation by the end of May.
7. Stubbs will be the primary leadoff man and do very well in that role.
1. I generally think the Nation is too hard on Dusty. Amazing how little love is given to the manager who broke the 15 year playoff drought.
2. I don’t agree with naming your opening day starter before preseason unless you have a clear ace.
3. We don’t.
4. I still think Leake and Wood may be our best two starters this year.
5. Though I sincerely believe 2-4, the actual decision to start Voltron on opening day doesn’t bother me too much – way to much concern over what is in substance a non-issue.
6. Though I sincerely believe #1 and am ok with #5, what in the hell is Dusty talking about with the process of elimination crap? If he would have just said Voltron is my guy – I’d be ok. But his logic process is so…..not even flawed, just…..mystifying and insane. I feel like Moon Unit Zappa is our head coach at this point……
Go Reds. Looking forward to mid May to see the Double A club come to town, and to Memorial Day weekend to see the Redlegs in the ATL.
@stormbringer: Yeah, agreed I am a little too hard on Dusty at times, especially coming off seeming decades of Boone/Narron/Miley game management. Also agree with you on the comments like ‘process of elimination’. Just when I want to give Dusty a break he turns into his own worst enemy. But since I didn’t play with Hank Aaron, I guess I just won’t understand.
I think the logic on Cueto not starting on opening day is a little more off than his logic for starting Volquez. He just signed a 3-yr deal so let’s not give him any additional pressure?
Personally, any of the 3 (EV, BA, JC) could be the opening day starter, and it’s fine. BA is least likely of the 3, IMHO, to be the “ace” by the end of the season. As with last year, this team’s rotation depth is the key to their season. Cueto-Wood-Bailey/Leake are better than about any 3-4-5 in baseball.
And I’ll beat the Chapman-should-be-starting dead horse, too. Their ace is in the bullpen.
Either opening day starter isn’t important or it is. If it’s not, you may as well choose it out of a hat. If it is, why announce it now, when Volquez might go out and walk the ballpark in spring training?
It really doesn’t matter who starts opening day, but it does matter who starts opening game of the NLDS. And if the Reds end up there again, as I hope and expect they will, Dusty’s idiotic logic demonstrated here is what irritates me. (“Process of elimination”. Didn’t I just hear that in October?)
@Dave Lowenthal:
I don’t think it’s that mutually exclusive. The opening day starter matters because it matters to people in a more esoteric sense. But from a baseball only standpoint, it really doesn’t matter.
Baker’s thought process (or lack thereof) on the other hand…
Baker: “What’s Bronson’s ERA? 3.50?”
Baker apparently used this statistic as a central part of his rationale for starting EV over BA or JC (or HB). A couple of facts:
FACT: Bronson Arroyo hasn’t had a season ERA below 3.8 since 2006.
FACT: Bronson’s career ERA is 4.19, Volquez is 4.36.
FACT: The average projection for ERA in 2011 (James, Marcel, CBS, Shandler) is Volquez 3.96 and Arroyo 3.99
Regardless of the wisdom of the decision for other reasons – hard-soft-hard-hard-soft – or if it’s just reaffirmation of his wrong decision in the playoffs — Baker’s use of statistics or decision based on them seems to be pretty insane.
Can someone, anyone please explain to me how Chapman is an ACE? He throws hard and that is it right now. Now with more learning and seasoning, he might some day have that title and ability, but right now, give me Travis Wood over Chapman everyday and twice on Sunday.
@dn4192:
Travis Wood over Chapman as a starter? ABSOLUTELY
Chapman needs more learning and seasoning so that he might some day be an ace? ABSOLUTELY
Chapman will get the learning and seasoning he needs to become an ace by pitching out of the major league bullpen? BULL$#@^
I know just about everyone wants Chapman to be a starter. But many of those people (myself included), realize that it needs to be in Louisville for at least the first half of this season, and possibly all of it. Putting him in the bullpen delays the time when he becomes the Reds’ ace. Or 3 or 4 starter, whichever he ends up.