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Baseball Prospectus has unveiled their list of the Reds Top 11 Prospects:
System In 20 Words Or Less: It’s a system with plenty of star power up front, but depth falls away quickly after that.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Devin Mesoraco, C
3. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS
4. Yasmani Grandal, CThree-Star Prospects
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
6. Yonder Alonso, 1B
7. Zack Cozart, SSTwo-Star Prospects
8. Juan Francisco, 3B/1B
9. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
10. Ismael Guillon, LHP
11. Junior Arias, SS
Is there more or less pressure on Devin Mesoraco this year, after the year he had last year?
If what numerous analysts are saying ends up being correct, those of us that attend Dragons games should enjoy watching Billy Hamilton and Yorman Rodriguez, among others.
The next group:
12. Donnie Joseph, LHP: A southpaw reliever who dominated at lower levels, he’s limited to a set-up man’s ceiling.
13. Ryan LaMarre, OF: He possesses solid tools across the board, highlighted by plus speed, but he lacks star power.
14. Brad Boxberger, RHP: Scouts are mixed as to whether he should start or relieve, but either way, he lacks a high ceiling.
15. Todd Frazier, UT: The former top prospect still doesn’t have a defensive home, and the bat has quieted down significantly.
16. Chris Valaika, INF: If scouts thought he could play on the left side, he’d rank higher.
17. Didi Gregorious, SS: A shortstop with tools and upside, but he has a long way to go.
18. Drew Cisco, RHP: Armed with far more polish than stuff, Cisco could move up more quickly than most teenage arms.
19. Ronald Torreyes, SS: An unrefined teenager, Torreyes has already shown speed and contact ability.
20. Kyle Waldrop, OF: This over-slot 12th-rounder has plenty of raw power, but will he hit?
I’m not as quick to write off Frazier as some others. The fact that he doesn’t have a defensive home means to me that he’s versatile, which is good, not bad. Valaika played well for the Reds when he got his chance last year; is he the heir apparent at 2B if the Reds decide to move Phillips?
What do you think about these ratings? Good ? Bad ? Some of each?
Cozart—kinda suprising, but I guess in the current climate, where there are very few shortstops w/ pop and a great glove, it drives up his value.
Frazier–I’m with you, this guy’s struggles (like Valaika) were the bump in the road that all prospects need to experience. He’s the most valuable non-pitcher/catcher we have at the upper levels because of his versatility. He’s poised for a breakout.
Grandal—the kid hasn’t played above A ball, yet he’s 4 stars? Alonso, when healthy, has raked at every level. Seems like they’re punishing you for, you know, actually playing.
I think the problem with Frazier is that he’s getting too old to be a prospect.
How come Yorman in only 3 stars? If he is the prospect every says he is he should have at least 4. But then again, he hasnt even played above short-season ball yet.
I think there’s less pressure on Mesoraco. If he starts the year at AAA, as he’s almost certain to do, he’s about a level ahead of where you’d expect him to be at this point. He’s shaken the “bust” tag, so he can relax and just try to play his game.
But it’ll be interesting to see what the Reds do with him and Grandal, whose development paths seem destined to cross.
I LOVE the possibility of having excess depth at catcher, b/c good catchers (who can hit) are SO scarce.
This is one problem w/ the Votto/Alonso situation – this is also excess depth of 2 very good players (well, OK, one great and one good player), but first base is probably the easiest position for teams to fill. It means that, unless Alonso distinguishes himself but absolutely MASHING the ball this year, his trade value is limited.
It’s water under the bridge, but I think we’re seeing why it’s not a great move to use a top-10 draft pick on a 21-year-old (or whatever his age was) who already is only a 1B/DH type.
Anyway… didn’t mean to get all negative.
I’m loving the catching depth. (Something so cool, also, about a switch-hitting catcher who can actually hit. Grandal is a switch-hitter, right? It’s just a cool concept to me. There are so few.)
… In the proud tradition of Javier Valentin!
On the 1B easy to find issue, which I agree with. I think it says more about the Reds that Votto’s fill in the last two years has been Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Cairo. This tandem may have a hard time staying above a .700 OPS this season combined. The system, beyond Votto and Alonso, is also pretty devoid of anything resembling a prospect. Dorn might be the exception, but it’s pretty clear the Reds don’t see him as a prospect.
On the catching depth issue, which is awesome. You might also want to keep an eye on Mark Fluery (.255/.352/.433/.785 at A Dayton) who is a LH hitter and will be starting the year out in A+ Bakersfield, and switch hitting Tucker Barnhart (.306/.412/.387/.800 at Rk Billings), who will be at A Dayton. They both look like they can swing it too. Fluery may have to share time initially with Grandal at Bakersfield, but I don’t expect Grandal will stay at A+ for long if he hits as expected.
I can’t understand why Francisco is still being talked up as much as he is.
Sometimes I think the overanalysis of early projections is useless. There have been lots of top prospects who had a few great years in the minors and never made it to the Majors and there have been even more marginal prospects who went on to have long, solid—-if not all-star—-Major League careers
@Dan
regarding drafting 1B, it depends, I think the brewers are happy with how Prince has worked out for them.
Go 2011 Reds!
I don’t understand why everyone seems so down on Frazier as well. I think given the opportunity, he would be a very solid 3B. Unfortunately, Fransisco’s bat is holding him up there. He showed impressive power at time at Louisville. If you have gone to many games there, you know it isn’t exactly a bandbox. He started off so poorly last year, his BA numbers couldn’t recover. I will say this, at times he does looked lost at the plate, but then he will come back a couple AB’s later and rip the cover off the ball. I see him as a solid prospect. At worst, I see him as a more athletic Ty Wiggington.
@doctor: Well, sure, Prince has worked out great for Milwaukee. But I think there are 2 key differences:
1) Prince is a true stud (.297/.398/.524 in minors, .279/.385/.535 in majors). I don’t see signs that Alonso is a stud yet (.291/.368/.458 in minors), though I recognize that Alonso has been injured.
2) Prince wasn’t blocked by anyone significant (Lyle Overbay). Alonso is (NL MVP Votto).
@Tom Diesman: Good point, Tom, about Fleury and Barnhart! I remember them being drafted but had forgotten to check in on their progress. Those numbers look great, given their ages.
Also, Barnhart threw out over half (23 out of 45) of the baserunners who tried to steal on him in Billings! Wow! That’s exceptional. He was 19 last year!
Chapman needs 6 stars, I think. I hope the pen job doesn’t set him back developmentally.
I think they are too harsh on Yonder Alonso; he is blocked but he can rake and deserves a higher rating (a trade may be the only way for him to show it in the bigs). And “stars” must not equate to ceiling or Yorman Rodriguez would be higher up–4+ or 5- or something like that. Stars must be some gut/combination of likely career arc divined by whoever divines such stuff at BP (not scouts who have actually evaluated these guys; more like analysts like you and me having read scouting reports and projections from others).
Where is Sappelt? No stars for him?
I agree with posters to some extent on Frazier, although I don’t see him as a regular IF and his bat probably isn’t good enough for corner OF. He may have a Cairo-type career–isn’t that worth two stars? I doubt most of BP’s two-star types have a Cairo-esque career.
Main thing about this list (and any Reds prospect list) that I love is that the Reds have already graduated a big chunk of the list from last year with good success—this is a lean, mean bunch when you look at the organization’s 25 and under team-controlled group.