Loading ...Well, today’s the non-waiver trade deadline. Will GM Walt Jocketty and the Reds make a deal? Will they do something? Anything?
I don’t anticipate any moves, but we’ve been surprised by Jocketty before. It’s just wait and see at this point. I know two guys I’d like to see the Reds get: Stephen Drew from the D’backs and Adam Dunn from the Nationals. Those two would solve a lot of this team’s problems, but that’s called wishful thinking, my friends.
ESPN has Trade Deadline Live for the latest in rumors and news. Let’s use this open thread to talk about what you want the Reds to do, and what (if anything) they actually do.
(saying a prayer for Stephen Drew in a Reds uniform)
“Team chemistry” – every team that wins has chemistry and every team that loses doesn’t.
In this situation, it’s an after-the-fact rationalization for not making a trade.
I’m not saying it would be a big mistake not to bring in a new player, only that “team chemistry” isn’t a legitimate reason one way or the other.
If bringing in a new player makes the team better you’ve got to make that move. For example, if that means renting a CF for a half year and having Drew Stubbs sit, or a LF and sit Gomes, then you do it.
I’m more concerned with biology – the functioning of the living bodies. The tangible.
Team chemistry didn’t get Scott Rolen in from third in the eighth inning last night.
MLBTR saying Reds have an offchance of landing Ted Lilly
Does anyone know a where I can get trade updates on my phone, I’ll be traveling.
Starting pitching is the very least of our concerns. Every second that we spend trying to work out a deal on SP is a second we should be using doing something — anything — else.
@Steve:
You can’t deny that trading Tony Perez before the ’77 season didn’t hurt team chemistry, can you? Evry book, evry analysis said so. The big stars of the Machine years started going off in different direction when they didn’t have Perez. The team stopped doing activities as a group, there was no unity in the club house without him. Similarly, if you add a player, say a Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez, who is clearly there for his own benefit, this can also affect team chemistry. If you have a guy who doesn’t really care about the team, why should the team do anything to make him look good?
No way the Reds get Drew.
I hope Josh Thole is in a Reds uniform today.
Moving big players certainly runs that chemistry risk more than trading smaller pieces, or prospects.
BTW, the Dodgers didn’t do too poorly with Manny, despite the chemistry.
And I bet Manny would have knocked Scott Rolen in from third base in the eighth inning last night.
One more thing. The reason trading Tony Perez hurt the Reds was because he wasn’t there driving in runs – the biology. He was a Hall of Fame run producer. That’s what the Reds missed most. His bat.
Joe, Pete and Johnny famously didn’t get along or go out to dinner with each other in 1975 or 1976, yet they won.
Splitting up the pieces of the BRM hurt the Reds, but it was biology not chemistry that was missing.
The Cardinals are close to signing Jake Westbrook. If this happens I doubt it will be a division-changing move. I guess it shows, more than anything, how weak the bottom of the Cardinals rotation is, if they are willing to sign him.
@Steve:
The Braves traded Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez. Yes, a young quality shortstop for an aging one. Why? Almost entirely for chemistry. The Braves are not exactly a poorly run organization…
OC isn’t a bad leader in the clubhouse from what I heard either. You think guys are going to listen to the backup SS who rarely plays?
@Reds03: I think I’d have a problem listening to a starting SS who can’t hit.
Corey Hart would look pretty good in Left or Right field.
@John:
Other guys can. haha
The White Sox made a “fail run” at Manny Ramirez. haha
I Think the Reds missed the solid pitching of ’75 and ’76 more than they did Perez. The pitching was awful in ’77. I don’t think the Reds would have beaten the Dodgers in 1977 with him.
The Cards are in ” deep talks ” with the Padres about Ryan Ludwick.
Is their any chatter at all regarding the Reds making a move? I haven’t seen anything lately.
Excuse me for being off thread a bit but if there is a moderator around, when I try to “quote” or “reply” today, my “Leave a Reply” box just goes to a blank screen below the other comments. I’ve scanned up and down the comments and can’t find it anywhere. Obviously, I am working normally at just writing a comment.
I am IE8 64bit version on Windows7 Professional
Anybody else have this issue?
I’m not saying there aren’t extreme circumstances where a really bad influence shouldn’t be moved or a really good influence shouldn’t be moved.
We’ll see how the Gonzalez-for-Escobar trade turns out for the Braves.
My point was just that “team chemistry” is a vastly over-estimated concept. And that in most cases it shouldn’t be a decisive factor in whether or not a trade is made.
@Truman48: Absolutely. The Reds lost in ’77 due to a lack of pitching.
I think the “chemistry” statement was largely about saying that they’re not going to replace OC with an upgrade.
Re the trade of Escobar: He’s an extreme head case. He was most likely wreaking the wrong kind of havoc in the clubhouse.
@Python Curtus: I’d sure hate to have ARod on my team.
@CaptainTonyKW: No, that trade was because Escobar was playing horribly. If he was lazy with good numbers, they don’t like him but keep him.
Getting Dunn would completely change the face of the offense. But I can’t believe that the Reds would do it. They should, but they aren’t smart enough to.
@Dave Lowenthal: Right, Escobar was not meeting the expected potential. And he’s not just lazy, he’s a hothead.
Westbrook isn’t that good but he’ll be a big upgrade over Suppan. Then they get Lohse back, and the back end of their rotation goes from awful to OK.
This is potentially dangerous. Ludwick is not a rental. And he’s a big bat. I expect there will be some serious major league pitching heading back to the Cardinals if they make this deal. I doubt it will be just for prospects.
@Dave Lowenthal: Marty’s head would explode if Adam Dunn returned.
@Chad Dotson:
That would be quite a sight.
Internet Explorer is always the source of every problem on the internet.
That said, I’ve never had problems with IE8. It usually puts the comment box directly below the comment you are quoting.
Best advice: download and start using Firefox browser.
@Steve:
Scary.
@Steve: @Dave Lowenthal:
I guess that was why the Atlanta Braves clubhouse gave A-Gon a standing ovation when he arrived…teams don’t trade young SSs for having an off-season…
I still love the thought of Alex Gordon to platoon with Gomes in LF and play 3B when Rolen is out, especially if the Royals will give up cheap. I think it would take a lot to get Soria from KC, but he would be an upgrade over Cordero at a much cheaper price for a few years (which is why it would take a lot). Dunn is a pipe dream but I would like it. I think he might struggle mightily in LF after not playing the position for a year (and being poor before that)but he would be a major upgrade offensively.
@Steve:
they have agreed on a 3 team trade that would send Ludwick to the Padres and Westbrook to the Cards and the Padres would give prospects to the Indians
We all loved Tony Perez and Sparky Anderson says the Perez trade broke the Machine, but it was the lack of pitching that caused the Reds’ downfall. For all GM Bob Howsam’s big trades, he undervalued his pitching prospects and the Reds fell victim to their scouting successes of the 1960′s. Either their scouts declined in skill or their scouting replacements weren’t as sharp as their predecessors. Here’s a link to a Redleg Nation posting on the pitchers we dealt away for spare parts in the 1970′s:
http://redlegnation.com/2009/08/01/redleg-trade-review-devaluing-pitchers-and-hal-mcrae/
Anyway, Dan Driessen equally replaced (but didn’t exceed) Perez’s performance on the field. 1976 was Perez’s worst season in about 10 years (OPS below .800)and his rbi totals were dropping. From 1975: 109, 91, 91, 78, 73, then 105 in 1980 for Red Sox, then 39, 31…
Driessen from 1977 (year he replaced Perez…start with second 91 above); his OPS was .843 rbi totals: 91, 70, 75, 74 (in Perez’s 105 season), then Driessen declines.
Oh…should’ve included Reds runs allowed:
1976: 633
1977: 725
1978: 688
1979: 644
1980: 670
Reds runs scored declined a lot, too, but Perez isn’t responsible ofr al lthis:
1976: 857
1977: 802
1978: 710
1979: 731
1980: 707
@CaptainTonyKW: I never meant to say his attitude wasn’t a part of it. I’m saying his performance was a majority of it.
One final try on the chemistry issue.
I believe that intangible qualities are important. I believe that there are great leaders (Scott Rolen) who should not be traded. Although this doesn’t mean that every veteran is a great leader. I also believe there are problem players who should be traded or DFA’d. All for the sake of improving the team.
My comment about chemistry was in relation to the claim by WJ and others that IF the Reds don’t make a trade, part of the reason was because their chemistry is so special they didn’t want to upset it.
Of course, trading Joey Votto for Albert Pujols, would upset the Reds chemistry. So would trading Scott Rolen or Brandon Phillips.
But those aren’t the moves that are in the realm of possibilities that we are discussing here. We’re talking about replacing Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes or Orlando Cabrera.
If the Reds traded for true upgrades at any of those positions, I don’t think it would seriously upset any intangible quality.
I think when your GM and manager start talking about “team chemistry” you’re about to settle in, rightly or wrongly, for a big dose of status quo.
If the Cardinals deal is just to pick up Westbrook, and they lose Ludwick, then it doesn’t concern me much.
However if they pick up Westbrook and another solid SP from San Diego, then I do think that presents a pretty big upgrade in their chance to win the division.
@Kyle: How much worse could Dunn be than Gomes in LF? Worse, sure, but Gomes is pretty bad.
I just think Gomes could be much better in a platoon role. I think with an OF of Dunn, Heisey/Stubbs, and Gomes/Bruce, the OF could go, potentially, from a weakness to above average in offensive production. It would have a ripple effect, getting Dunn.
How much could he possibly cost? Way less than Lee, hell, the Reds traded him for almost nothing in his contract year.
@Steve: Hopefully WJ is BS’ing to try to lower the price?
Early returns for the Braves on Alex Gonzalez:
50 plate appearances
0 home runs
2 RBI
6-7 record
Meanwhile, Yunel Escobar for Toronto:
56 plate appearances
2 home runs
8 RBI
9-3 record
(of course, ridiculously small sample sizes)
@Steve: I predict that within one year the Escobar deal is thought of as a complete disaster for the Braves.
Reds lineup for today just posted. Exactly the same as yesterday except for Hanigan catching Arroyo.
It’s reaching the point of insanity that we don’t play Chris Heisey for Drew Stubbs…or Jonny Gomes…or Jay Bruce.
I’m about to leave for the ball park and go collect my Homer Bailey bobblehead.
Go Reds!
Cards trade Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook? Seems to be a done deal.
Am I nuts, or is this a really strange thing? I like this deal for the Reds. I am just not that high on Westbrook…yes, he improves the Cards because Suppan is punted, but how much difference will he make? I would bet estimated is < 1 win.
Maybe 1 win at most.
Then, they are losing Ludwick, who has put up some pretty good numbers in his career.
The STL/CLE/SDP deal is done
Well said. And unfortunate.
Yep, totally agree. And within three years, when Escobar continues to be a flashy Gold Glove SS, it will be regarded as one of the worst trades in their history.
All because Bobby Cox yelled, “Get Yunel off my yard.”
I understand this was just thrown out to make a larger point in your entire post. However, it is an intersting thought to roll around in one’s mind for a few minutes.
Given their relative ages and contract situations, would either team make this deal if it were on the table? Would it be straight up or would one side need to sweeten the pot to get it done?
I kind of like three years guaranteed of Votto even if they are his arb years over 1 year guaranteed of “Albert the Great” then facing a possible LeBron type situation.
Kinda off topic, but…Does anyone else have the feeling that the Reds will make the playoffs and be done in the first round after Cordero blows a couple of saves in the opening series?
I absolutely hate losing to the Braves..especially since I’m surrounded by fair weather Braves ‘fans’ down here in Carolina. The Braves ‘fan’ base fluctuates down here from week to week – it depends if they are on a winning or losing streak.:roll:
Sorry for going off topic…I had to vent.
@Chad – If you could guarantee Marty and Thoms head would both explode if Dunn returned I’d make it happen!:twisted: Exploding heads is probably the only wat we’ll ever get rid of them.:evil:
Ludwick has become a bit more expendable in the eyes of the Cardinals because of Jay. But I remember Ludwick hitting home runs in GABP like batting practice. So I won’t be sorry to see him go.
Westbrook will keep the Cards in some games that Suppan would have torched, so that does help them. But only incrementally.
If this is all they do, that’s not too bad.
@Dave Lowenthal:
I am assuming they like Jay better. He has put up some great numbers this year.
One other thought about the Cardinals trade in a way that it might affect the Reds.
Ludwick may give the Padres a bat that keeps them from falling out of the wild card race. I expect the Giants to catch and pass the Padres and the Reds to be in wild card contention with them, possibly.
So, ironically, the trade may hurt the Reds more by helping the Padres with their hitting.
The Cardinals also get a pitching prospect from SDP but not as good
I love this. KC clearly doesn’t value what they have in Gordon. I’d love to get my hands on him.
This. ^^^
I’m a little disheartened that the Reds have done absolutely nothing to improve the roster. The Reds could have upgraded in LF and leadoff with Podsednik (BP batting 2nd). The Reds could have snagged Corey Hart to upgrade LF and the 2-hole (BP battig 1st). The Reds could have upgraded LF and the offense by trading for Bautista.
Starting pitchers were certainly out there… All the Reds needed was a middle of the rotation arm that would bring a bit of stability to the current situation.
Where the Reds really could have made some deals is in the bullpen to give Rhodes, Masset and Cordero some time off. There aren’t a ton of options, but certainly enough where the Reds could have gotten somebody.
The only moves made were Russ Springer and Izzy. I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.
@David: There are still 2 and a half hours left. Last year the Rolen deal went down right on the deadline. Jocketty is nothing if not patient. Also he said ealrier in the week that some times the best deals get made in August.
Except Alex Gordon is awful. .247/.328/.410 career with a large enough sample size that you should know who he is. His minor league numbers are great, but he is the classic example of a guy who can’t translate it. I’d think you’d find him a Wladimir Balentien type.
I think people read way too much into the trade deadline. It’s not just a matter of “we need x,” it’s a matter of finding an available player, hoping the other team’s front office isn’t stupid (see Toronto and Scott Downs), working around no-trade clauses, etc.
And as for Dunn, it should be pretty apparent by now that the Nationals just really, really, do not want to trade him.
@OhioJim: August deals are typically for guys with insane contracts that smallish teams can’t handle i.e. Jose Guillen.
Count me in as someone who thinks the Escobar-Gonzales trade is going to be a train wreck. Supposedly, the prospects the Braves got are pretty good but I don’t know that it makes up for what they gave up. I think it really hurts their team this year.
Buster Olney said the Cardinals rotation “is nothing less than exceptional” with Westbrook.
I think Alex Gordon very easily could be a Balentein type, but I don’t think that is known yet. He struggled at age 23, improved at age 24 (slightly better than 23 y/o Bruce this year), was hurt all last year at age 25, and has barely played in the majors while learning LF at age 26. He has 200 ABs at ages 25-26 and he was killing AAA pitching this year. Like I said, you could easily be right about Gordon being a AAAA, but I’d love to find out if we could get him cheaply.
They are also reporting the Berkman trade is a done deal.
Martin Prado has a broken knuckle and will be out 7-10 days
The Reds GM said it. Maybe he wasn’t including his current team; but I doubt that.
@Truman48:
Berkman’s been done, they’ve been waiting out the 24 hour grace period 10-and-5 players get.
Westbrook’s 2010 WAR – 1.0
Ludwick’s 2010 WAR – 2.6
Whoops.
The Dodgers acquired Ryan Theriot and Ted Lilly from the Cubs for Blake Dewitt.
@TheNatural:
I’m still trying to figure out what St. Louis was thinking. That might be the Reds big move of the day, really.
John Jay’s minor league numbers aren’t overly impressive. He’s got a 1.061 OPS, sure, but in 124 PAs.
Anytime you get a chance to trade Ryan Ludwick’s 120 OPS+ for Jake Westbrooks 85 ERA+, you have to do that deal, amirite?
No matter what happens today, the highlight of my day is easily going to be getting blocked by Jon Heyman on Twitter.
Alex Gordon is awful? Ummm…okay. There isn’t nearly enough information to leap to that conclusion. He has been jerked around by the Royals worse than any top prospect I’ve ever seen.
I’d LOVE to see him in a Reds uniform.
I feel like I’m the only person that hasn’t gotten blocked by Heyman at this point. I must not be trying hard enough.
Stephen Drew? Not worth a quality prospect for 2010 or 2011.
Drew
2010 .264 Avg (.269) 45 runs 4 HR 35 RBI .338 OB
Playoffs 1 season 0 WS
Cabrera
2010 .259 Avg 51 runs 3 HR 37 rbi .300 OB
Playoffs 5yrs 1 WS (5 out of last 6 with last 3 in-a-row)
I am not sure considering the difference in 2010 performance and what the Reds have in the minors that it is worth a prospect. In three years Zach Cozart will be better than Drew and probably comporable in 2011 or 2012.
Apparently the Cardinals traded Ludwick because they won 9 games in a row without him. Seriously.
Ballplayers are stupid sometimes. As Reds fans, we’re all quite familiar with what Alex Gonzales brings to table — very little. I don’t recall any claims about his leadership, either.
@Mark in cc.:
hmm…that looks like a pretty weak comparison
how bout Drew is 27 (just entering peak years) and Cabrera is older than your grandfather and his skill are in serious decline
and WAR the last 3 years for the two
2.2 2.1 2.0 Drew
3.5 .8 1 Cabrera
of course, AZ won’t trade him so it’s a mute point
What did you do – call him on his idiotic statement that Theriot (69 OPS+) for Dewitt (99 OPS+) will give the Dodgers an offensive boost?
@mike: But what about batting average and runs scored?
@Chris Garber:
I’ve been giving him guff over being a Boras-shill since he blocked Calcaterra. Apparently he didn’t appreciate the mockery after Scottie made him “speculate” that the Yankees might be interested in acquiring Manny today.
@Chris Garber: I was more concerned about team chemistry and what Marty thinks
I just wish the Reds would make a move right now.
Even if the Reds stand pat and win the division… just look at what other playoff quality teams are doing. Grrr.
My question to anyone getting terribly upset about a lack of moves is; who is available (like actually available)that you think they should/should have gotten?
Available is realitive term related to the cost the deal to some degree.
@Brien Jackson: Chad’s original two suggestions were solid, though Dunn was a pipedream/joke.
I’m getting a bit more concerned about how Gomes and Stubbs are turning into a much-improved version of Patterson/Taveras – in that Dusty seems unable to adjust to their cold streak.
Stubbs in July: 687 OPS, 25 K in 92 PA.
Gomes: 681 OPS
Just noticed this: Gomes has 21 BB all season – and 10 of those were in May. He’s ridiculous.
I really had wished for Corey Hart. Our outfield lapses scare me. But, looks like we’ll role with it. Go get ‘em today Reds
Bronson on the hill today.
No game thread?
A little Yakety Sax to start the game.
Braves making good contact early. Errors don’t help. Limit the damage here.
@Chris Garber: Think the Braves front office is stupid too?