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(Bumped…because I want Walt Jocketty to see this.)
… I’m on the phone to Jerry DiPoto right now. DiPoto, you may have noticed, is the Diamondbacks’ interim GM. Over the weekend, he traded Dan Haren, a most excellent pitcher (having a superficially bad year, but pitching well), signed to a reasonable contract for the next two seasons, in return for the mediocre Joe Saunders and the proverbial handful of magic beans.
Walt obviously could’ve put together a package similar to what the D-Backs got. We don’t have anyone exactly like Saunders, but talent-wise the prospect package would look something vaguely like: Matt Maloney, Carlos Fisher, Brad Boxberger, and an additional young arm. (That package is a little light, but Saunders also makes $4M).
DiPoto may not be entirely to blame (the D-Backs owner is nuts), but in his press conference, he cited not only Saunders’ W-L record, but his “postseason experience” (15 IP, 5.40 ERA – but the D-Backs aren’t going to play in a post-season game anyway). Most incredibly, DiPoto touted the minor league W-L of one of the prospects. Yeah, that’s relevant.
So, why should Jocketty be on the phone with Jerry DiPoto? Because if the D-Backs are trading Dan Haren for nothing, it means they’re probably also willing to trade shortstop Stephen Drew, a 27-year-old under team control for a couple more years. Drew’s not an exceptional upgrade over Orlando Cabrera right now, but the team doesn’t have a SS under contract for next year (it does have one bat boy who can play there, but that’s a different story).
I thought the player to be named later is supposed to be substantial????
Yeah, somebody had said that the player was to be a pretty good one.
Haren’s numbers have sure fallen off this year. ERA of 4.61 and 161 hits in 141 innings! I don’t know the story there. If he is the kind of pitcher that we could pick up I think I would rather get a bat.
Great idea.
I’m not as down on Saunders as many are. I think he has some as of yet untapped upside, and Haren isn’t exactly lighting things up this season.
I am in agreement that we are much more in need of a bat.
It would be a good call to make, not so much because Arizona may have screwed up on Haren. As of now, I’m assuming our 2011 SS situation is Janish and Cozart competing, where the loser is the backup. I’m happy with that, but there’s some uncertainty there.
Cozart has some value as a trade chip right now, if he use him for that then Drew becomes more valuable to us.
Come to think of it, if we call about Drew, Arizona might want Cozart as one of the prospects in return. How do we feel about that ? How does their defensive play compare ?
In reality, there’s no way this call gets made. Wj has said he’s not going to make any move to upset the “team chemistry.” And he would certainly view replacing OC as the starting SS as upsetting team chemistry.
I’ve had great ‘team chemistry’ at companies I have worked for that are no longer in business. Just sayin’.
Not if Dusty Baker is the manager of the 2011 Reds.
@Steve: But if WJ doesn’t extend Cabrera or bring in someone, then who ?
After reading John Fay’s blog today, I posted this comment under last nite’s Titanic Struggle Recap. But no one will see it there. So I’ll also put it here, where it doesn’t belong.
Dusty’s overall done a good job with the bullpen lately, although he continues to use Rhodes too much when we’re behind.
I wouldn’t say that the bullpen let Leake down yesterday. The big hit was given up by Leake to Michaels.
I did not want to see a tiring Leake pitching to Michaels. But I decided to not second guess Dusty after the game.
Anyway today Dusty has second guessed himself, saying he shouldn’t have left in Leake to pitch to Michaels, and that Leake is now tiring after 90 (instead of 100) pitches. Good for Dusty to second guess himself, but come on Dusty, you didn’t learn from the Philly debacle ?
If Baker stays as manager, there is ZERO chance that Cabrera won’t be resigned. And in that unlikely event there is no way that Baker will use Janish as his everyday shortstop. As we have observed, Baker has his inflexible ideas of what certain players should be and Paul Janish apparently doesn’t fit in it.
If Cabrera isn’t resigned, WJ will go out and get someone else, probably someone similar to OC. An aged veteran, on the downside of a career who is cheap. But if they do that, why not just resign OC?
I would LOVE to see the Reds commit to Paul Janish as the everyday shortstop. To me, the spectacular defense he offers is more important than the lack of hitting.
I would combine that move with efforts to improve our offense elsewhere, though, primarily in LF/CF depending on Stubbs finishes out the year.
@Steve: The free agent SS class is awful this year. The only intriguing player to me is Jose Reyes if the Mets decline his $11 million option.
Decided to go watch Homer pitch for the Dayton Dragons tonight. Will file a report for the Nation when I return.
@Steve: Looking forward to the Homer report.
@TheNatural: I like Reyes a lot, but high risk with all the injuries.
Steve, I don’t agree with ZERO chance, I have more respect for WJ than that. What’s the amount of the option year on Cabrera ($5M ?). As I recall, it’s pretty steep. WJ might not exercise the option. And if he doesn’t, OC will get ticked off and probably go elsewhere, even if it means playing 2nd base.
Gulp. You’re right. I didn’t realize the option was so expensive (it’s $4m with a $1m club opt out). So yeah, decent chance we won’t do it. But I still wouldn’t rule it out. Cabrera is obviously the perfect match for what Baker is looking for.
“Veteran leader,” “clutch,” “great defense,” “proven winner,” “RBI guy,” “#2 hitter,” etc. Ugh.
OC is beginning to get hot and this won’t happen. OC is a big contributor in Septmeber and October. His lifetime career is .290 in those months.
Mike Leake being interviewed on XM 175 right now.
It should say career average in my post, sorry.
PTBNL is Tyler Skaggs. He’s a 2009 Supplemental First Rounder (players can’t be traded until a year after they sign(?), which is why he’s to be named later). He’s ranked in the Angels top 10 prospects, but not their top 5. I’m comparing him to Boxberger.
Haren’s ERA and H/9 are off this year, but that’s mostly b/c he’s been very unlucky – something like a .350 BABIP. That’s why I used the word “superficially” and linked to the FanGraphs story.
Leake interview highlights:
Says the Reds have not talked to him about pitch or innings limits this year. “I’m sure they have something in the back of their heads.”
Says that he has to keep evolving against hitters as they come to learn him. “I try to throw a little screwdriver in there every once in a while.”
Talked about how he had a superstition of Bronson Arroyo singing to him to put him to sleep while he was still undefeated.
Jim Bowdon leads into a question about Dusty Baker by saying, “It’s obvious that Dusty has done an outstanding job there this year.” Then asks Mike if Dusty should be renewed. Leake: “He’s definitely a player’s coach. He cares. It would be nice to play for him for a few more years.”
Leake on winning NL ROY: “It would be a great accomplishment. We’ll see what happens at the end of the year.”
iPod or DVR?: DVR
What show watch to forget about last start: Family Guy
Teammate next to you in a fox hole: Jonny Gomes
Best leader on the team: Jonny Gomes
Craziest thing said to you by opposing player or teammate this year: An umpire said “Why aren’t you hitting your spots?”
@Steve:
Best leader on the team was a shock for me. I would’ve thought Rolen or OC.
Me too. First I thought it would be a pitcher, and if not, then Rolen.
SS …what about Cozart? His defense might not be as good as Janish, but it’s not bad at all…
It is behind the scenes things like this which are beyond our knowledge that influence decisions like PT on the margins. In this case, why Heisey doesn’t get more PT at Gomes’ expense.
We can know these things and still disagree with decisions where they are involved; but very few decisions get made in a vacuum the way some folks suggest they are.
I suspect that Gomes’ rah-rah antics (and I mean that in a nice way) may be the thing for certain guys, particularly younger guys.
I found these 3-4 page reports on Alonso, Frazier, and Francisco. It is pay only material on Rotowire, but if you have it and haven’t read these already, they’re well worth the time. Bernie Pleskoff, who was a scout for MLB teams for years, offers insight to the three and how they fit in. For example, I didn’t know that Frazier lacks the quick feet (range) to handle SS or 2B, so 3B and LF are his best bets. He thinks Francisco will make a fine 3B, quick steps with a cannon arm. Being a fantasy site, there is of course plenty of discussion about their hitting abilties.
http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=10310
http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=10281
http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=10255
@Bill Lack: I haven’t seen enough to know, but I’m not super thrilled with the idea of handing over SS to a rookie who hasn’t OPS’ed over 800 in his minor league career.
This year’s power numbers are pretty good, though — he already has 40 extra-base hits and 23 SB. (As a side note, 446 PA in 100 G is an absolute ton).
Can he legitimately hit?
[...] friends over at Redleg Nation used this headline for their most recent [...]
Don’t know…what do you expect out of a SS? I think he’s young, he’s cheap…I think he and Janish are very similar players.
@Bill Lack: Except he will hit better than Janish…if we don’t keep O-Cab or get a FA I would say he is the favorite to start next season–much to the dismay of the Janish obsessed on this board.
Unfortunately, the team would still be lacking a player at the top of the lineup…
How to pronounce Valaika?
Va-LAY-ka?
Va-LIE-ka?
Just wondering.
If I was Walt J., I’d try to pry Jason Bay from the Mets. Harang and Gomes would do the trick I betcha. Sure Big Bob would be taking on salary, but he can afford it. That park in Queens is so damn big and obviously so frustrating for Bay and couldn’t you see him playing left, and salivating at the bandbox that is GABP? The Mets need pitching help and when Johnny Gomes hits ‘em, no park is going to hold that baby.
Just a thought.
Also keeping in the back of my head that the Cards once had a farm system that was loaded. Not anymore, as the result of trading them all for vets. Once in a while, if WJ can land a difference maker, is fine. Do not want to end up with nothing in the system in a few years, either. Uninformed speculation– maybe WJ saw the end in STL, and didn’t care about the future.
Rolen returns to the Reds tonight AND OC is leading off and BP is 2nd
Colby Rasmus and Jaime Garcia aren’t bad for recent graduates, though.
That’s odd.
BP is 3 for his last 27@Chris Garber:
What I don’t get is why they need Saunders? There starting 5 is one of the better ones in the NL if not the best (starting FIVE, not THREE which would be Cardinals)… If the Reds need another shortstop they’ll go grab Jose Bautista and play him at second, BP at short but that wouldnt be until the offseason.
@World: I would make that deal in a second.
Agreed. Although Garcia has been untradable for a period of time with the Tommy John surgery.
@World:
You’d try to acquire an aging left-fielder with declining offensive ability, no defensive ability to begin with, and a rather large contract?
I think Walt Jocketty enough, but be careful about glass houses and all that: Jocketty is the guy who traded Dan Haren to Oakland for Mark Mulder. Also, from an organizational standpoint, Castellini signed off on a lot of stupid moves Krivsky made.
citing a minor league starting pitchers W-L record might very well be the most useless stat there is. You’d probably get more info from mentioning how many innings they have pitched. It’s such a bad stat that it is a negative to even look at it.
There are countless examples in the minors but I have to wonder, Wood is probably a better pitcher and prospect than the minor league players and Wood pitched VERY well at AAA this year before being called up (3.12 ERA, almost a SO per inning and 4 to 1 SO to BB ratio)…..his record was 5-6
would he really not value him because he had a losing record?
I have wondered for 20 years how these people get and keep their jobs
My point exactly, Brien (~10 comments above). The Reds system is LOADED. A well timed trade here or there is fine, but my hope is that the organization remains strong well into the future.
Everyone at that press conference is now dumber for having listened to DiPoto.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7w64fbqYQY
Why in the world would the Mets do it?
@Barnes:
On Bay? Jesus, you don’t even need to consider the system. I wouldn’t claim Bay off of outright waivers at this point.
@Brien Jackson: No, no, no, no, no, not Bay. I was just speaking in general terms of maintaining some organizational depth. Even if Bay were to return to ’05, ’06, or ’09 form, he makes too much in a long contract. In that particular scenario, I’d rather see what Heisey/ Frazier/ Francisco could do for us.
@Brien Jackson: Sometimes, I just cannot disagree with you more. If Bay, who is hitting .259/.347/.402 this year and .267/.362/.493 over his past three, was on outright waivers, then you wouldn’t claim him? So you would turn down .259/.347/.402 for $400k? hmmm….
As for Jocketty, your example of a bad deal is Haren included in the Mark Mulder deal? Mulder was one of the best pitchers in baseball, and had a very good 2005 for the Cards. He got hurt. How is that Jocketty’s fault? There was speculation that Mulder had been injured in 2003/2004, but you don’t think Jocketty did his due diligence?
At the time, Haren was a former top prospect, but struggled as a starter and was sent back to AAA. Like most young pitchers, he was incredibly inconsistent. Daric Barton was the top 10 prospect in 2005, not Haren (a nice little player as a catcher, but relatively weak numbers for a 1B).
You can’t look at these deals in hindsight. You have to look at them as business decisions at the time. The Cards had a World Series rotation in 2004 and made it better by trading for Mulder.
Oh, by the way, the Cards won the World Series in 2006, even without Mark Mulder or Dan Haren pitching.
OK, here goes.
Living here in the NYC fishbowl gets me the “honor” of having the Mets and Yankees broadcasts every night. Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling are convinced that Bay is just psyched out by the dimensions of Citibank Park. You can see it on Bay’s face pretty much every time he flies out to the warning track and the boys upstairs in the box comment how that would have been a dinger at Fenway. It is clear that think that neither party is happy with the situation as it currently exists. The natives are definitely restless up here and Bay is starting to get booed consistently. He needs a change of scenery as the outfield walls aren’t being moved in any time soon as I understand.
As for the comment that Bay is aging, he will be 32 later in the season. In many respects, he is in smack dab in his prime. One year ago he hit 36 home runs and knocked in 119. He walked 94 times and stole 13 bases. These are damned good numbers and who is to say which park is more of a bandbox- Fenway or GABP? No matter, the point is that those warning track outs for the Mets will now be round trippers for the Reds. Bay’s defense is admittedly average but that’s what you normally get from someone in left field and I think we all would agree that Johnny Gomes is never going to earn the Gold Glove out there. I’d put Bay in the cleanup spot to protect Votto or perhaps somewhere from 5 to 6 next to Jay Bruce and you have a more reliable slugger than Gomes and or the occasional Mr. Nix and a position vastly improved.
As to why the Mets would do this, they need pitching. Badly. Notwithstanding the talk is that Arroyo is coming here as a free agent at some point, Harang used to be characterized as a #1. In this ballpark, he would certainly benefit from the longer fences and the decent defense of the Metropolitans. Harang is obviously a bit of a gamble but with the right team and the right ballpark to pitch in, who’s to say he could not hurl as he did in 2006 and 2007? Gomes would be someone to play LF, hit some long distance homeruns (the currently confused and bewildered Senor Bay has but 6 at the present time), and give the team a personality lift as has Ike Davis earlier this year. The Mets could in fact use a new second baseman and the Reds have a plethora of infield candidates in the minor leagues who can swing a decent stick. Hell, even Batboy Janish could come over and be the reincarnation of my old buddy Doug Flynn (sorry The Natural- had to drop that name)at the keystone. Actually, an infield of Wright, Reyes, Janish, and Davis would be the best defensive infield of the National League for sure (even better than the Phillies) and would rival the fellows manning the four bases across town in the Bronx. The Mets need a catcher also and I’ll bet you Hanigan could be spirited away from the Rojos in the right deal.
This is a trade that would make sense for both teams. If Bay could come back and post the longball at the 35-a-year-clip that he displayed more than once in the past, and does this next to King Votto, you may have the makings of a champion. Indeed, Joey Votto might not be here for his entire career as Big Bob may not want to pony up the type of money that JV may command if he has been MVP a couple of times. So why not try to win now?
This is one thing, among others, that I’d be doing if I was WJ. OK, I’ll sit back and listen to the critics.
@David:
If you claim someone off waivers, you become responsible for their entire contract no?
@Barnes: Francisco sure isn’t going to do you any good in LF. He’d K 75% of the time and plays horrid defense.
A Heisey/Dickerson platoon would be light-years better than Gomes.
Gomes isn’t worth his defensive lackings
the bottom line is the team could make incremental improvements RIGHT NOW if
Play Heisey/Dickerson in LF instead of Gomes
play Hanigan much more than Hernandez
play Janish instead of Cabrera
so what’s the point on taking a flyer on a guy like Bay, who’s having an off year and wouldn’t really be an improvement over Heisey?
Bay WOULD be a small improvement over Gomes, plus I’d like to see how his HR totals would go up in the GABP but I just don’t see how it would be worth it
value so far this year
Bay 4.9 batting, -1.6 defense for a 1.3 WAR
Gomes 1.4 batting, -10 defense for a -.1 WAR
and with MUCH less playing time
Heisey 4.9 batting, 3.9 fielding for a 1.2 WAR
unless the Reds are going to get a serious LF or give up on Cabrera (neither of which I see happening) I don’t see help for the (already good) offense
I still think the best thing this team could do is trade Harang and minor leagers for some serious bullpen help. I’ll take my chances with the offense and a rotation of Cueto, Volquez, Arroyo, Wood and Leake/Maloney
@David:
On the Mulder deal, there’s no way to defend it. Mulder got hurt in 2003, only making 26 starts, and came back in 2004 with significantly reduced numbers. Oakland beat 225 innings out of him, but his strikeout rate fell below 6, his walk rate above 3, and his WHIP went up to 1.35. Jocketty screwed that deal on both levels; not only did he was he far too quick to give away a young pitcher with Haren’s talent, he showed much too little skepticism of a pitcher like Mulder.
Mike- If this was the off-season between 2009 and 2010 and Bay was available coming off that big season in Boston, can you honestly say that you would not want him in left field for the Reds? I say this because, in many respects, that this is the situation that currently exists. Citibank is obviously not Jason Bay’s cup of tea and he needs to move somewhere else. There’s no reason to believe that he would not resume his power game at the bandbox that the Reds call home. If you could get 35-40 homers from Bay and the decent defense that Gomes, God love him, just can’t offer despite all his hustle and good intentions, why wouldn’t that work for you? This isn’t a player coming back from an injury or a horrible year. Just a bad first half in a ballpark that he obviously despises and can’t put under the whip.
Just trying to keep the conversation lively.
@mike:
Gomes’s hot streak is long over. His OPS is well below .800, and he’s now worth negative WAR. Well past time to bench him.
@World:
I’d qibble a bit with how good of a season Bay had last year, but either way, “want someone in Cincinnati” is a bit of a useless question. The question is whether you want them at their price, and with Bay’s remaining contract, no, I wouldn’t want him on my team.
Francisco is a stretch in LF. Heisey/ Frazier is the future there. When Rolen’s contract is up, Francisco will be 25-26 and should be better at recognizing pitches. He’s got pop, a good arm, and quick feet for a big guy.
@World: world, no doubt i’d have wanted Bay then. Plus I’ll add that he’s performing well below exceptions this year….so this brings up the massive question. Why? This is a guy who’s had 3 5+ WAR seasons out of the last 5 and his one bad year was injury filled.
current wOBA .337
project wOBA .376
updated projects including this season wOBA .353
in other words he might, just might be someone to take a chance on hoping he returns to form. Then again there is a chance that Heisey could pull off that sort of production. His current wOBA (which would definitely fall with full playing time) is .397. The question is could he stay over .353 while playing better defense? The defense is a given.
it begs the question why doesn’t Heisey get more playing time?
As for right now, Heisey/ Dickerson/ Gomes (when he’s hot- how does anyone filling out a lineup card time that right?) makes loads more sense from here than Gomes everyday does. I just don’t see it happening, with Gomes being the team leader apparently, and Dusty at the trigger. Jocketty would have to trade him off, and that would be messing with the team chemistry, something WJ said he doesn’t want to do. Realistically, all we can do is hope Gomes gets in one of his zones again, and that stinks.
@Brien Jackson: agreed. With his awful defense he either has to mash the ball or he isn’t worth it.
@World:
A;so, Jason Bay’s OPS is 150 points higher at home than on the road this season.
@Barnes: I agree totally about Francisco being the heir-apparant to Rolen.
I tend to notice a lot of folks on this site ‘dogging’ Francisco for his faults, but I just wonder if these same folks have seen him much in L’ville? He has the arm and footwork for the postion, and is pretty good on the corner, IMO. He just needs repetition to work on the mental aspects of the position more, along with more consistency and concentration. Things that maturity tend to solve.
Furthermore, Francisco’s bat is special; it’s just his inability to take a few pitches that gets him in trouble. If he can manage to rectify his BB% a bit by a walk or two more a week, then we will have a legitimate, future star on our hands. The ‘lightning’ in Francisco’s bat is rare.
Most importantly, Rolen’s contract (through 2012) allows us the opportunity to be patient with him and/or Frazier. I feel really good about the corners in the future. I’m more concerned about SS than any other position on the field. This is where we should be focussing all of our attention, because Cabrera isn’t getting it done with the bat or the glove.
Where is game thread? Me want!
Oh well, I guess we’ll just have to discuss it on this one for now.
I’m talking to myself again. Dammit.
Good to see Rolen back.
The Yankees are trying to trade Chan Ho Park. Ha who would want him
Hanigan knocks in 2!!
Hanigan again!
Hanigan!!!
@lukeukcrazy:
Maybe Cashman can get Adam Larouche for him.
Let’s trade for Alcides Escobar.
@Brien Jackson: What’s up with the Pinstripes Palace Yankees blog that links from your name? Just wondering.
@Barnes:
Yankees fan.
Not enough time to blog anymore though.
Very well. I’ll try not to hold that against you. Can’t speak for the others, though.
@Barnes:
I think I’ve mentioned it before. I grew up just north of Cincy, still have a passing interest in the team. I follow lots of different team blogs, and comment on 4 or 5 of them. Basically I watch a lot of baseball.
No one has a hit in the DET/TB game. 6th inning.
I didn’t say who, so it’s not a jinx.
Or is it? Tampa just hit a grand slam.
If it had been the Reds involved, I wouldn’t have said anything. At all.
@Brien Jackson: That’s awesome. Best game there is.
@Barnes:
Amen. MLBTV is like the greatest thing to ever happen to me. If the Yankees aren’t playing at a certain time or they’re on ESPN/TBS, I’ve usually got the Reds and the Rays going on split screen. If the Reds aren’t on too, I go with the full 4 games at once. Can’t think of a better way to spend $20 a month.
Homer Bailey pitched four innings tonight at Dayton. He threw 59 pitches. His fastball was at 93-95 all night. He threw a handful of his other pitches, but just a few.
He was dominant in the first three innings, then seemed to tire and gave up a few solid hits and three runs in the fourth inning. But overall, as long as he was pain-free after the game, it was a successful start.
More later.
So this is our game thread tonight?
Chris Welsh just said Joey Votto was a patient hitter. Interesting comment about a player that swings at over 40% of the first pitches he sees.
@Brien Jackson: Didn’t do the MLBtv this year. Reds are often blacked out on it where I live. However, there are no blackouts on the MLB At Bat which carries every MLB game on the radio. Sync up the tv with the radio, mute the tv, and I don’t have to hear Thom. MLB Network is also excellent.
I don’t think even the Large Hadron Collider could create a bigger black hole than what we have at the top of the line-up right now. Wow!
It’s all we have!!
Not really shocking to me- Gomes has Brett Favre type intensity on and off the field.
@Barne@Barnes:
I use At Bat a lot too for more or less the same reason. It’s also great for when I can’t sit right in front of the computer.
Whose says Heisey PT has to come at the expense of Gomes?
Game Thread up.
[...] * Walt Jocketty says he might not be able to work out any deal before the trade deadline. That’s probably a good thing. Unless ol’ Uncle Walt were overwhelmed by an opportunity to acquire someone who will definitely improve the team, no use in taking unnecessary risks. Of course, there’s one deal he REALLY needs to get done, right now. [...]