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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll, who writes BP’s “Under the Knife” segment, offers some initial comments about Homer Bailey‘s disabled list visit. The BP article above is on their paysite, but the comments about Homer are included as a preview.
Bill James was asked about 21 year-olds pitching in the big leagues the other day on his paysite (specifically concerning Matt Cain) and his comments were essentially that any 25 year-old still pitching in the big league as a rotation starter who began by pitching in the rotation at age 21 should be considered a success for the team.
James went back over 50 years in finding pitchers for his study. The study included great success stories such as Roger Clemens, C.C. Sabathia, and Don Drysdale. The list, however, was filled more with guys like Mark Lemongello, Balor Moore, Steve Trout, and Dave Rozema. Guys who got early starts and had potential, but didn’t make it, typically because of arm injuries, and were pretty much done at age 25.
Too much use too early can cause problems. Thus, the Reds reluctance to use Mike Leake more than 150 innings this season. They have said they have similar plans for Aroldis Chapman. James’s conclusion:
“…in all honesty, for a pitcher to tread water after pitching that well at age 21 is actually much BETTER than the usual outcome. The usual outcome is that the pitcher would have arm injuries at age 22 or 23, and would never be the same again.”
I suppose the moral is we shouldn’t go by what we remember, for recollection isn’t always accurate. That’s why I keep score for every game I see, even the ones I’m coaching. What I remember isn’t always what happened, or I can’t remember why it happened that way. That’s where information can show situations in a different light.
Apparently, Homer was not happy when he found out he’d been placed on the DL.
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100524/SPORTS07/5250324/1002/sports/It+s+not+Harang+s+best++but+it+s+good+enough+for+7-5+victory+over+Pirates+
According to Fay, Homer complained b/c he wasn’t told and wanted to ride it out w/out going on the DL. It looks like Baker and Jockety just dismissed him, saying “tough”.
Kudos to Walt. If Homer has shown anything so far in his young career, it’s that he can’t be trusted to tell you the truth about his health. Between the groin injury last year and this, his macho act smacks of self-interest, as in, ‘I’ll do anything to keep my job’.
He did it to himself.
@Sultan of Swaff: I agree, I just wish there was better communication between Homer and management.
Dusty said on last nite’s pregame show that the injury happened suddenly (on one pitch, then maybe aggravated by a couple more). But that was based on Bailey’s account of events.
Also, as I raised on the other Homeer thread, isn’t tendonitis something that develops gradually ? If so, Bailey’s been feeling some pain for a while now.
It was easy for Bailey to be a hothead about being put on the DL. He knows management is no going to chastise him for that.
@RiverCity Redleg: Yes. You can talk to Bailey face to face and still tell him “tough.” If it really is only 2 weeks, we can consider ourselves lucky.
@pinson343: Good point… Bailey gets “tough guy points” for being upset about being on the DL at no cost to him.
Paul Daugherty just wants us all to leave Dusty Baker alone!
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100524/COL03/305240089/1007/SPT04/Bailey-Fans-critical-of-Dusty-can-shut-up-
I’m not willing to say “self interest” or “I’ll do anything to keep my job”…I’d chalk it up to being in his early 20′s, when you think you’re invulnerable and put that on top of the ego of any professional athlete, I’d say more have his attitude than don’t.
This is a good thing for Bailey. Right now he has only shown one brilliant start and several not so great ones. This gives him some time to take a step back and work on his splitter. This also will save him some innings/pitches and he should be able to come back stronger. With the pitch totals that have been well chronicled here, it is much better to be “safe than sorry” regarding Homer. And if he feels he is hurting not injured, good for him for being pissed off. That means he has some fire and wants to be out there.
My response:
If Homer had been glad or agreed that it was a good idea to go on the DL people would have complained and said he was soft, spoiled, weak, not tough enough, poor attitude, didn’t want to play…etc.
One would’ve thought someone would tell him though….isn’t that the manager’s responsibility, especially since Dusty’s a player’s manager?
My opinion…it’s one more piece of leverage the Reds can use come arbitration time…that is, he’s an injury risk factor.
Again…if it’s due to overuse, isn’t that the manager’s responsibility?
Also…I would think it would’ve been more prudent to have called up a pinch hitter while discussing proper pitcher use with Dusty.
You guys are making too much sense today.
ohhh, David Dewitt, quit being a twit. Go on the DL and fix your ***t