Loading ...I can’t believe we live in a world where the idea of moving Brandon Phillips and his below-average on-base percentage into the leadoff spot is actually a good thing.
He is fast (when he decides to sprint). That’s Dusty Baker’s only qualification for the leadoff man, apparently.
It’s all relative to your options.
And, unfortunately, this team doesn’t have alot of good options for the lead-off. You devoted an entire thread below on this and the only other name anyone could come up with is Hanigan. I would have no problem batting Hanigan here, but he doesn’t play everyday (nor should he). So, you still have the same dillema (sp?) on his off days.
Precisely.
I do like that Jocketty mentioned that a trade might happen once the market presents itself, but in the meantime Phillips is really the only other option. Hanigan’s OBP is likely to drop, and his lack of speed and the reality that he can’t play 4 out of 5 games keeps him from being a good option – unless Phillips fares worse than Stubbs has.
Reminds me of when Deion was the Reds leadoff hitter, he WAS really fast..rounding first base and going back to the dugout.
@Travis G.: Why can Hanigan only play 1 out of every 5 games?
And yes, Hanigan’s OBP will drop, but he’s had a good OBP at every stop in the minors. No reason to believe he won’t have one of the better OBPs on the team, even with increased playing time.
Dickerson would be a fine leadoff option if he were healthy. Heisey’s a good option.
I actually don’t have a huge problem with BP as the leadoff hitter, but that may be because my standards have been lowered by the Patterson/Taveras dual debacles. BP’s career .313 OBP looks great compared to those two jokers.
I’d bat Hanigan leadoff 4 times a week and BP 2-3 times a week, with Stubbs hitting 7th (and Pastadiving Cabrera 8th) until he gets his mojo back. Then bump Stubbs back up to leadoff.
@Chad Dotson: Owp. I actually meant that Hanigan (or most catchers) can’t play more than about 80 percent of the time.
In the absence of a “traditional” leadoff hitter … why not bat Votto first? When you think about it, the batting order affects 2 things — how the game starts off and who gets the most at bats. No one on the roster really makes a whole lot of sense as a #1 or #2 guy to start off the game, so why not just move the top batters up there? On one of my little league teams the coach sorted the team by batting average and that was the batting order.
Votto
Cabrera
Rolen
Bruce
Philips
Gomes/Nix
Catcher
Stubbs
Say what you want about Cabrera, but he’s got one of the best bats on the team and he’s still leading in RBIs.
The sad part of this season is the fact that, to be successful, the boys needed to have a great season. Thus far they’ve been pretty historic underachievers. A look at the top 6 of the batting order as created by my little league coach:
3 (3!!) pitchers (Leake .364, Cueto .364, Bailey .286), half time Hanigan (.375), Janish (.316 with very little chance of keeping it up) and Votto. Yikes.
On top of that, the starting pitching we were all so excited about hasn’t been that great (save for Leake). How this team has won any games is beyond me.
While I agree that Hannigan could do okay in teh leadoff spot, everyone I talk to laugh at me saying catchers don’t lead off. I can’t argue because outside of the former Pirates catcher Jason Kendall, I can’t recall many catchers in the leadoff spot. As long as we get Stubbs out of that leadoff spot and allow him to mature with less presure, I don’t care who leads off.
After a good start last season, Hanigan’s OBP was .272 in the second half.
I think I’d try Heisey for a week in left field and have him lead off. At least you’d be adding to the defense that way, so even if he didn’t work out batting first (honestly, how much worse could it be?) the team would still be better in the field.
I’d keep Stubbs in CF and the lineup, batting sixth or seventh, to see if he hits better lower in the lineup. He did, after all, get two hits in the one game when he didn’t bat first.
@dn4192:
Where a player plays in the field has no bearing on where he should hit in the batting order.
Was just reading Baker’s comments yesterday about how “clutch” Cabrera is. This is an old school concept that Baker clings to that has repeatedly been disproven by statistical analysis. Very few hitters sustain AVG/OBP with RISP above their every-day AVG/OBP. Cabrera is no exception.
Cabrera’s career AVG/OBP: .271/.321
Cabrera’s career AVG/OBP wRISP: .269/.316
The RISP # is over 1600+ AB, so it doesn’t fall prey to a “small sample size” charge.
This year, Cabrera is .300/.240 with RISP in only 20 AB. That’s a small sample size.
[The reason his OBP is below his AVG is because (a) he has zero walks, (b) his sacrifice flies are not counted against average but are counted as a negative against OBP.]
@Steve: Batting down by one with two outs and a guy on second in the bottom of the 9th is a lot different than when you’re up by nine with no outs and a guy on third. The stats don’t show that.
While “clutch hitting” is probably more evidence of a selective memory, you quote RISP averages as proof that there is no such thing.
That was supposed to say “you can’t quote”
Amen Brien. The automatic reponse to “Catchers don’t bat leadoff” is “Why not?” Heaven forbid that a team challenge conventional wisdom that isn’t actually based on wisdom.
Bright side here … Dusty sees that even though Stubbs is very fast, his not getting on base is a problem.
This is one small step for Dusty, one giant leap for Reds fans.
It’s an organizational failure that we don’t have at least one decent OBP guys in any of the traditional spots that require that skill set—SS, 2B, CF.
Man, I wish Frazier and Alonso would start hitting. We could really use good OBP guys like them. This team will only limp along with Gomes and Nix on the roster. Just compare the way the Cardinals turn over their lineup to us.
Bah. All this makes me angry. If, like this organization, you are determined to put a speedy guy in the lead off spot, then Phillips is the logical choice.
What you should be doing, however, putting your five best hitters in the top five spots. The Reds five best hitters are:
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Phillips
Hanigan (probably)
Hanigan is the natural lead off guy in that group (all OBP no SLG) and Phillips is a natural number 5. The otehr three you can shuffle around as you like and similar results (though Votto should bat #4, if you ask me). I can also see giving Heisey a shot to see if he is as good as it seems like he is. Also, Dickerson, when healthy, is probably a better hitter than Hanigan.
A few notes: Cabrera is not a good hitter. He has been reasonably good for a few weeks. This will not last the season.
Gomes is not a very good hitter either. He had a career year last year, and now he is turning back into his old self. He may be a great guy, but he shouldn’t really play against righties. Also, this is the part where I totally get to say told you so. I saw this season coming for him from a mile away.
Okay, end rant. I got a little worked up.
I don’t understand why Heisey has played so little in the week he’s been up here. It’s not like Nix or Gomes is setting the world on fire or anything. Might as well see what you’ve got, at least.
The Cardinals aren’t a good comparison to the Reds re: offense b/c so far on the season, we’ve scored almost exactly the same number of runs.
Cardinals (29 games): 126 runs scored
Reds (28 games): 121 runs scored
The Cardinals are crushing the rest of the division b/c they’re crushing us in run PREVENTION (pitching and defense):
Cardinals (29 games): 92 runs allowed
Reds (28 games): 149 runs allowed
Not that this has anything to do w/ the lineup argument… but I just spotted this in the standings today and I thought it was remarkable.
San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa, and the Yankees are the only other 4 teams to have allowed fewer than 100 runs at this point… and they’re all near the top of the standings.
I wasn’t laughing at the Reds’ crappy defense, I was laughing at Jason’s Big-Eyed emoticom, yellow circle dude, above. Just to clarify.
Yeah… I think at this point we have much better depth of pitching than we’ve had in a long time (including more young pitching)… but we don’t yet have GOOD pitching.
Hopefully we’re on our way…
Brace yourselves.
Tonight’s leadoff hitter: Orlando Cabrera.
Let’s review:
Drew Stubbs OBP: .267
Orlando Cabrera OBP: .292
The one thing OC seemingly does well is drive in runs, so naturally the place to use his great talent is leading off.
Hanigan, who might be the best leadoff hitter on the team, is not even playing. Back to “no QB controversy” Hernandez catching Homer.
Heisey still stews on the bench, while Jonny Gomes (OBP .247) plays. So does Janish.
This is a total failure by the organization to value and roster guys (even ONE) who excel at getting on base. Instead, we have Nix and Gomes as the backup OF. That’s on the GM.
The lineup, that’s of course on Baker, who I am SO ready to see leave. Hopefully he won’t have Homer throw 120 pitches again tonight.
@Steve: Unbelievable. I hope OC does well, but …..just…. un-effing-believable. I Too am SO READY to see Baker gone.
Your comments about ‘the organization/GM are right on also.
Dusty’s line-up are so aggravating, and at time pulling for this organization feels like a chore…but I’ll be watching tonight, like Every night – Hoping the Reds Win.
It’s kinda weird, but I just sleep better and feel better in the morning after a Reds win.
…while on the surface, OC in the leadoff spot may seem absolutely idiotic…
old-school, tried-and-true managing will tell you that when you don’t have a CF to leadoff, the next best position to leadoff is a SS. Don’t mind the skill-set or the stats…CF’s and SS’s bat leadoff!!!
(sarcasm)
^^^^^^^^
Ding-ding-ding, we have a winner.
@Jared: you’ve touched on the most important thing in baseball lineup creation. Bat your best hitters 1st. Guess what? you score more runs if your best hitters get more AB.
The ONLY reason we even talk about leadoff hitters is because of the difficulty of playing certain positions (SS, 2B, CF) rosters tend to have some non-power hitting speedsters who can get on base so you bat them in the 1st two spots ahead of your power hitters but that’s NOT the best. The best is to bat the best bats 1st!
OK…since all this discussion of who leads off and lineup construction is going on someone needed to run the lineup toy. So here is what the lineup toy says the Reds should do.
the following lineup (the lineup I’d create right now) would generate 5.21 R/G
Janish
Hanigan
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Phillips
Gomes
Stubbs
pitcher
Gomes is interchangeable with Nix and Stubbs with Heisey
The optimum lineup based on the above players since they are currently the most productive Reds, again with Gomes and Stubbs you can substitute any replacement player who can play the position is the following (thanks to the lineup toy)
Hanigan
Janish
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
Phillips
Stubbs
Gomes
pitcher
The reason why OC appears to be a decent RBI guy is that when he’s getting on base, it’s usually by hit rather than walk. Unless the bases are loaded, there’s no chance to plate a runner with a walk. It’s nice to have an OBP of 350 but if a guy’s AVG is 220, I don’t want him batting 3-5. High OBP up top and a high AVG/SLG in the middle.
I disagree the Hanigan is a leadoff hitter. His high OBP but his speed makes him a liability. You don’t have to be a burner but a tarheel doesn’t help either.
Bailey will definitely pitch 120.
@mike: the lineup toy lineup would generate an average of 5.35 R/G
@David: how does his speed make him a liability? all those times our #1 and #2 hitter score from 1st he Hanigan wouldn’t? yeah…look at all those times our #1 and #2 hitter have done that…oh right…they are never on base, so they can’t score from 1st.
There is one thing to say about speed
@#$%@#$% it
one more thing…the lineup I generated and then the one the lineup toy generated were based on putting the best players on the field. We know THAT WON’T HAPPEN….so just to go along with Dusty’s insanity…I’ll insert Cabrera into the lineup and run the lineup toy….The lineup the toy generates is not surprising…by adding another weak bat and sub-.300 OBP it has to go to desperate measures.
Hanigan
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Stubbs
Gomes
well……Dusty’s magic has been worked
gotta love putting a terrible OBP guy in leadoff……BECAUSE HE PLAYS SS!
today’s lineup appears to be
Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Stubbs
Hernandez
oh well
wonder why Heisey doesn’t get a couple starts in CF
wonder what it takes to get Hanigan some regular starts
wonder why a hot hitting Janish never plays at all.
and on the speed thing…Cabrera is slow….
@mike:
wonder why Heisey doesn’t get a couple starts in CF
wonder what it takes to get Hanigan some regular starts
wonder why a hot hitting Janish never plays at all.
Rhetorical questions I assume?…because the answers are Dusty,Dusty, and Dusty