Loading ...Every year, some analyst — be it Peter Gammons, Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal — picks the Reds as the trendy “surprise contender for the upcoming season.” Seriously, I think the Reds have been tarred with that label almost every year over the recent “lost decade.” And every year, what happens?
Right, the Reds lose and lose and lose. And Chad’s hair gets thinner and thinner and thinner. And Chad beats his head against the wall until he begins to refer to himself in the third person.
I tire of it.
However, I’m just as guilty as the next guy of getting all optimistic again every spring. Now, guess what? Yep, right on cue, here’s Dave Cameron — one of my favorite baseball writers — over at FanGraphs:
Pretty much every year, there’s a team that the projection systems are optimistic about, relative to the general feel of baseball fans and analysts at large. This year, it looks like that team may be the Reds, who haven’t been seriously talked about as contenders by too many folks, but who look like they could be pretty good on paper.
Despite winning just 78 games last year, there’s quite a bit of talent on the roster. Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips are established All-Star caliber players, while Joey Votto certainly looks like a guy who should be able to perform at that kind of level, given how well he played in 2009. Beyond just those three, the roster is littered with upside. …
The Reds have the makings of a pretty good team in 2010. We shouldn’t be all that surprised to find them right in the thick of things come September.
Go read the entire post; it’s enough to make you feel all warm inside.
What really kills me is that it feels like every year they mess with my head for the first few months. Hey, we have a winning record! Hey, so and so is bouncing back! Hey, this team might be all right! Then they lose 25 games in June or something.
This year… I don’t know. It feels like there are fewer ifs this year. I feel like, except for Bruce, Stubbs, Bailey, and Cueto, we know what we’re going to get from pretty much everyone on the team. For Bruce, Bailey, and Cueto, I think we know they’ll be somewhere between average and HOLY CRAP!, but not bad. So, really, Stubbs is the only question, and I, personally, think he’ll be okay.
Unlike every recent year, there just aren’t that many “ifs” on this team. It’s rather nice.
Over the past few years, the team has slowly changed from “IF” a large number of players have career years or perform like they did in their best previous single season (which was 3-4 years prior) then they might be competitive enough to make a July trade
TO
a team of players who either have solid MLB career averages or have solid minor league track records. If they play up to their career averages, they are good enough to be .500 or better.
That was the basis of optimism last year. The pitching/defense side did their part. They had the fewest runs allowed in the past decade. The 5th spot in the rotation was no longer a dark hole.
However, the offensive side of the ball also produced the fewest runs scored in the past decade. Taveras, Gonzalez/Janish, and the combined 3rd base production was far worse than what these guys had done for their careers.
All three of these positions have been replaced by better offensive counterparts for opening day 2010.
So… I’ve been thinking about this for awhile. Our LF situation is so messed up. Francisco, Frazier, Heisey, Dickerson, Nix, whomever, all have their question marks, serious question marks to boot. Have the Reds given up the Votto to LF idea? If not, why not move him now and look at a temporary solution at 1B like Carlos Delgado or Russell Branyan?
from USA Today:
BY THE NUMBERS: .211, .212, .213 — That’s what Paul Janish, Drew Sutton and Adam Rosales hit last year, respectively. Before the Reds signed SS Orlando Cabrera, they were Nos. 1, 2 and 3 on the depth chart going into spring training. Rosales was subsequently dealt to Oakland.
I feel better about this season.
And the Reds have 10 gold gloves in the infield.
Gold glove selection is so poorly done as to be almost (almost!) meaningless. Still, the Reds do have a nice defense all around. I believe there was some analysis that said they were among the very best (top two or three, I think), in all of baseball last year.
One thing I do feel better about is that we have some depth. Last year when we had an injury or poor performance, it was barely a replacement level player stepping in. This year, I feel there is some chance that a Frazier, Heisney or Francisco can come in and contribute.
My real question is whether the improvements in the offense (maybe marginal to somewhat significant?) are going to make up for the loss of Volquez. We need Bailey and Cueto to continue improving, and Arroyo and Harang to hang on.
I’ve been out of the Reds loop for about a week. What’s the status of Jonny Gomes?
Likewise, I’m much more content with the depth on this team than at any point in the last decade. Competition for outfield/5th starter spots this year will be as pure as it gets—no one has a leg up on anyone. I want them all to succeed, they all seem like good guys. The only guy I’m going to be rooting against (nothing personal) is Owings. He walks way too many guys to be a reliable starting pitcher. Send him to AAA as insurance.
If you read the whole article plus the comments, there’s some pretty compelling statistics that say the Astros will be pretty good. Their starting rotation does look solid.
@Sultan of Swaff: I read those comments at the end of the article too… interesting.
The Astros had solid starting pitching last year too, but their bullpen and hitting sucked. I don’t see much changing there.
Hey, hope springs eternal–as an old logo/slogan stated—RALLY THE REDS HOME
@JasonL: My Reds Poem on the Lost Years
Swell in April
Okay in May
Swoon in June
Goodbye in July
Bust in August
Never remember September
Thank you. I’ll be here all season
Seriously hoping Reds break ground on some new poetic inspiration for me this year.
@Jimmy: What no haiku?
Any record predix? I guessing another 78-84 season and third in the division.
100 Wins 62 losses. What the heck and its easy math.
Well, he’s right. There is a lot of talent on the team, just as there had been in the past. But, you don’t win with talent, you win with production. The kind of talent the Reds have available is often unproven or inconsistent. Sure, they could compete, if everyone plays up to and beyond their potential for the entire season and if no key players are injured.
If the Reds played in Safeco, they might contend.
After my Colts win the SB this weekend, I will be able to spend more time on how the Reds will do, but right now, I don’t see a team in the NL that match up with this mix of young talent and selected strong vets. I see the Reds finishing around 90 wins, sweeping their way to the World Series will they will upend the mighty Seattle M and Ken Griffey Jr./
It’s hard to predict. The Reds, Brewers, and Astros all look to be pretty equal. The Cubs won’t blow up this year. But no one is even close to the Birds. The Pirates, at least on paper, are much improved. Could be second, could be last. NL Central is no longer the weaking division in baseball though. (It takes a lot of thought to say that much without saying anything.)
@Drew Nelson:
i thought i was the only reds/colts fan in the world! i’m from north dakota and last year i made my first trip to cincinnati…we were sitting in the three seats closest to the foul pole down the left field line and drew stubbs hit his first career homerun right at us! after the game we immediately got in the car and i made my little brother and our friend drive to indianapolis with me…we scalped tickets for the colts/eagles preseason game and we watched peyton get presented with his 3rd mvp trophy from the 50 yard line 8 rows up.
we got on sportscenter that day in the crowd of both games haha
I know it’s spring when the optimistic attitude takes over and I think this is the year the Reds go back to the playoffs. That being said I like this team. I was hoping for Janish to get a shot at SS but I think OC will add that infamous “veteran leadership” and this team is gonna be solid this year.
Not to worry by June, I will more than likely back to the pessimistic viewpoint surrounding this team.
I rarely comment but absolutely love this site and check in every day. That said, I have to finally get some things off my chest AND ask some advice after not commenting for at least 6 months.
Pretty much all of you guys on here are VERY serious baseball fans and have a great grasp and love of the game. With that said, I’ll admit I’ve changed my perspective on certain “traditional” perspectives and have learned a lot from many of you, thanks to your invaluable statistical insight, so thanks for that.
So first of all, let me say, THANK HEAVENS FOR THE WILLY T TRADE!!!!!!!!!!! BEST MOVE OF THE YEAR BAR NONE! (OTHER THAN CHAPMAN, OF COURSE)
With that cleared, somebody correct me on what I’m missing for 2010.
1. The pitching staff is pretty much solidified: Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, insert Maloney, Owings, etc. God willing, Volquez and Chapman will be a factor this year, but I’m thinking 2011 for both.
2. The infield is set, though I’m VERY wary of the Cabrera signing. If it’s a stopgap for 2010 for a guy like (perhaps) Cozart, then fine. I mean, if they think they can win this year (which I think they can if all the chips fall in the right place) with both Rolen and Cabrera playing 125 games ….. well okay then, I can go with that. But I’m 40 myself and knowing the physical limitations of an average person…..well, just don’t see it happenin’ even though Cabrera seems to be very sturdy. If the dude could only get on base at league average….BUT!…I digress.
Still, knowing that Cabrera’s range can’t be anywhere it used to be, I’d rather have seen Janish eat up those innings – lack of offense or not. Whatever. Maybe Cabrera makes up for it with a lot of those intangible we keep hearing about….
3. LF – I’d be fine with another Gomes/Nix platoon there unless Balentien can show he’s the man – which I totally doubt. Still, Dickerson should get a lot of time out there combined with his chances in CF with Stubbs, so I guess I’ll be happy with any of these combos. As long as Willy-T isn’t in the game, there’s NO WAY they can be worse than last season, right???
4. Bullpen should be solid along with the SP, so why can’t this team contend AS LONG AS ALL THE STARTERS DON’T GET HURT??
I ask all this because I’m getting ready to hang with a bunch of my old-school Reds friends at a reunion, and I want to know from the best-informed….which, of course, are you guys right here at Redleg Nation.
One caveat: Everything I’ve mentioned is with the one exemption of Dunce-ty Baker. I’m going to assume that he’s going to be a managing beast this year due to the simple fact that he simply can NOT play Willy T (or any other automatic out) due to the “relatively” talented Reds lineup that he’ll be forced to play every day.
Sorry for the long post. GO REDLEGS!!!
I’m not going to listen to them.
I’m always optimistic about the Reds’ chances, but there’s a lot to like this year.
The biggest question mark is at the end of the rotation, but those follow most teams’ fourth starters like proper punctuation. I’d feel better about LF if our most likely option wasn’t Dickerson, who I love as a fourth OF but not a full-time starter, or some sort of Gomes/Nix/Balentien pu pu platter. I’d love to see Frazier play his way onto the team, but we can’t count on that happening or panning out over a full season. At this rate, Damon or Dye might be forced to take a bargain-basement 1-year deal, but I like the idea of moving Votto out there and signing Delgado, as david suggested, even better. Votto’s footwork stinks around the bag, and his future is likely in LF anyway.
But the defense should be above-average to great, the starters have a lot of potential and not a ton of risk, the bullpen was a strength last year and has some guys coming back from injury to bolster the incumbents, and the offense almost has to be improved by adding Rolen and Cabrera and subtracting Gonzalez, Encarnacion/Rosales and Taveras. I don’t entirely trust Dusty to maximize the talent base, but it’s not a bad base to head into spring training with.
In their final year before their option year, I figure Arroyo and Harang will have good, and perhaps, spectacular years. IF (yes, that is a big if) Bailey and Cueto have solid to better than solid years you now have a very good 4/5 rotation. I like Owings for the 5th starter but part of that is I love his bat. The bullpen should be very good. Last year it was among the best in the NL.
The outfield and infield defense should be among the best in the NL. What scares me is the age of the left side. This is where Janish and/or Frazier and/or Sutton need to step up big time. Catching is solid, if not spectacular.
The big question (besides SP) is what will the offense do over the course of a long season. I predict a lot better than most of last year, but not quite as good as the last 35 or 40 games.
Bottom line: 85 up and 77 down. They’ll contend for the WC down to the last week of the season and just barely miss out on the playoffs.
Well, that’s one man’s opinion.
Plowboy, I remember you. You should post more often.
Regarding the guys on this site, I agree 100%. I feel just like you and I just like you until until a few months ago. I read the site just about every day but rarely posted. I guess I didn’t feel like I could talk baseball with guys like preach, Travis G, BJ Ruble, KM is Batman, and Pinson343 (not to meantion all the editors). But it didn’t matter. By November I wanted to talk baseball and I didn’t know anyone who cared enough that wasn’t either a Yankees or Cubs fan.
Anyway, what I’m saying is jump in. I’ve been a Reds fan since I was a kid (we are the same age, btw) but didn’t get serious until a few years ago. Consequently, my baseball knowledge is not close to the editors and specifically the guys I meantioned above. But they have been nothing but accomodating and hospitable. They, not the baseball and not the Reds are why I come back 2/3/10 times a day.
PS – I’ve learned if you write long posts, no one reads them.
Hoosierdad. I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to leave you out.
No problem, TC, I could do my best Rodney Dangerfield impersonation, “I tell ya, I don’t get no respect.” lol
@hoosierdad: Since you were talking about defense, I agree, both catchers are excellent game managers and Hanigan has a Molina caliber arm. Both are decent hitters but only in certain situations. ESPN has said several times the catching crew for the Reds is a liability. I figure they must not have gotten the memo that Ross and Valentien are no longer the catchers.
I also don’t understand when people say Hanigan is not the catcher of the future. Show me a better option in the system and I might agree. IMO catching is the weakest position in the minors. A catcher’s development is just as long (if not longer) than a pitcher and there is no one on the farm (including Mesoraco and Weems) that is a lock to make it to the show in the next two years.
Yarbrough, the minor league free agent they signed in December intrigues me though.
@TC:
Totally agree about the catching situation. While a Spanish catcher seems logical, especially with Chapman coming along, I’ve really enjoyed watching Hanigan. I remember Hal McCoy writing that he “works with the pitchers like a lion tamer”. He seems tough and focused.
He’s another guy – like Janish – that I find myself wishing would get traded to a team with a “normal” offense so they’d get more respect and more playing time…
Has anyone else been watching the Caribbean Series? I have and the biggest thing that I have seen is how bad the defense has been. PR has had 10 errors and DR 6 errors.
Juan Francisco, who BTW was the MVP of the league and a gold glover, has had 3 errors (2 at 3B, 1 in LF). They had him playing his natrual position of DH last night.
I can’t believe Vinny Castilla and Bill Pullsipher are still playing…
Anyways, the series is really getting me ready for real baseball. I think the Reds have a great chance at 81-85 wins, if things go well. It should be interesting this year in the fall for the first time in a long time.
I hate to spoil everyone’s day, but the Reds just have not done enough to upgrade the offense. Like it or not our lineup, with CHONE projections for each player, will be:
6) .275/.326/.374 – Cabrera
3) .303/.381/.528 – Votto
4) .272/.324/.443 – Phillips
5) .275/.350/.430 – Rolen
9) .283/.349/.537 – Bruce
2) .257/.329/.405 – Hernandez
7) .252/.348/.409 – Dickerson
Without a legit LF with an OPS over .850 batting the middle of the order, we will have some serious offensive issues again.
@David:
Haven’t done enough for what? To win the World Series? Yeah, you’re probably right.
Have they done enough to be better and more watchable than last year? That’s what most of us seem to be saying, which depends on more than statistics.
@RedinFla: Diddo. We’re not even saying the Reds will win the division. When you’ve been watching suck for so long, ‘no so bad’ is a reason to get excited.
@David: The LF situation you described is tricky though. After reading what Mark Sheldon said, I’m starting to fear Gomes is slipping away. He’d be that guy, David, in LF and middle of the order. However, then Dickerson doesn’t play.
David is right, the Reds need another power bat in the middle of the order, but they also need two guys in the top of the order who can get on base. Dickerson, when healthy is a natural number two so there is one. The team still doesn’t have a leadoff. But, hey, most teams don’t. There are really only 10 or fewer good lead off hitters in the league and no one is Michael Bourne.
I REALLY like Stubbs, but I think I’d rather have Dickerson in CF to hit lead off and Gomes in LF to hit clean up. Heisey is the X factor. Can’t wait to see how he does.
Is it me or does it seem this team is stacked with 6 hole hitters?
That pretty much sums it up, unless some guys have breakout years.
@TC: That’s a better situation than when they used to have a rotation stacked with #6 starters.
@David: I think Stubbs will have an OBP of .340-350 or better. Most of those player projections are better than what the Reds hit at those positions last year including SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF.
Remember that brief time early last season – two, three weeks maybe – when the Reds had one of the best pitching staffs in the game?
There were days last year when I could actually approach the coffee pot at work and not be dreading what people would say about my team. I actually even started baseball conversations!
I have to admit, I’m addicted to that feeling. There. I’ve said it. I can’t help but hope to have more days like that in 2010.
@TC: Don’t forget that Balentien had the almost exact same projections as Gomes, so it’s not like Gomes would make them a favorite.
@TC: YES! About the whole lineup are 6/7 hole type hitters.
Here is the lineup that I would like to see (using players that Dusty will use):
Vs. RHP
Dickerson LF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Cabrera SS
Hernandez C
Vs. LHP
Stubbs CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Balentien LF
Bruce RF
Cabrera SS
Hernadez C
I would love to see Rolen in the 2 hole, I think Dickerson against RH will get on base more than Stubbs. Against LHP, Stubbs can lead off and get another power type bat in the lineup with Balentien and dropping Bruce a spot.
Bur of course Dusty will use CF/SS 1/2, so my lineup wouldn’t work in his eyes…
@GregD: lmao. Good one.
@BJ Ruble: The only problem, and this is less a problem with your lineup than just not having the right hitters, I don’t like Phillips hitting 4th in any situation. Phillips is my favorite player and I like seeing him hit were he’s successful. When he was hitting second he hit like a 2 hole hitter. He hit 30 dingers though so people mistakingly though he’d be good as cleanup. You know he’s just swing the for fensing though when he falls to his knee after taking a swing. How many times did he do that last year?
Sorry, typed that while on the phone.
I’d consider batting Phillips 4th against lhp.
@christopher strand: There are tons of Reds/Colts fans in Indiana.
All right, quit that thinking outside the box stuff right now! The next thing you know you’ll be talking crazy stuff like moving Phillips to SS and signing someone like Hudson to play 2B and hit second with an above league average OBP. Crazy talk I say, crazy!
You guys trying to get this team into the playoffs or something?
The winter is too long. What will be will be. Just play ball.
@GregD: Count me in as a Reds/Colts fan. In that order, I might add! After all, football and basketball are what you do when it’s too cold to play baseball!
Now that’s what I’d like to see.
I’m surprised by the statement: “On the position player side of things, the Reds stack up well with just about any team in the National League.” I’m biased in the Reds’ favor, but I wouldn’t make that statement. On the other hand, the offense will improve in 2010. I have a feeling that Jay Bruce is going to break out. And then there’s the addition thru subtracting WT.
But to contend, the pitching has to be better than league average. Cueto will be good the first half, Arroyo the second half. The big questions marks are Homer and Harang. Homer did enough toward the end of last year to give us hope. In Harang’s case, the last 2-3 starts before his appendicitis, he looked strong again – lots of movement on his fastball, a sharp slider. Was that for real ? If so, look out for the Reds.
I don’t know why in the offseason everyone – including me – talks about the bullpen last. Without a solid bullpen, you can’t contend without a monster offense, which we don’t have. We held leads last year, largely due to Rhodes and Masset. Will they be as good in 2010 ? Rhodes probably not, and we can’t be so sure about Masset either. Remember that many on the blog didn’t even feel he should be on the team at the beginning of last year.
I’m not putting down Rhodes or Masset, but a comeback by Jared Burton would be a big help.
“I’m not putting down Rhodes or Masset, but a comeback by Jared Burton would be a big help.”
Amen. Bullpens can be so volitale and you can never take those arms for granted. You can never go into ST with enough healthy arms. You tend to cylce a lot of them throughout the season with injuries, ineffectiveness, spot starting, etc.