Loading ...For the love of all that is good and pure in this world, Walt Jocketty…if you have a shred of common sense left in your head, please do not sign Orlando Cabrera.
It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Yet, here is Ken Rosenthal, reporting that Cabrera is deciding between offers from the Reds and Rockies.
Cabrera is a worse defensive player than Paul Janish, and at this point in his career, he is unlikely to hit much better than Janish either. Why waste the money? So you can relish in the consternation exhibited by The Nation every time Dusty Baker “hits” Cabrera second in the lineup?
Listen, Janish is certainly no great shakes, and I’d love to see an upgrade at SS. Orlando Cabrera is no upgrade, especially on a team that needs to be getting younger. Cabrera is old, his offense has declined over the last three years (and that’s not going to change), and he should be worse than Janish with the glove in 2010.
We’ve been okay with the majority of the decisions made by our GM this offseason. This one, however, is just nonsensical.
Can someone give me one good reason why the Reds should be looking to sign Orlando Cabrera?
Chad, love ya’, but I think you are wrong on this one. My post from below:
cabrera has looked fine to me this past season. I will repeat it here: I like Janish, but he is Juan Castro in his prime. He is not and will not be a front line player unless we have 6 solid bats elsewhere. We do not. Cabrera is an immediate upgrade, and for one year he blocks no one, and he is a commercially known quantity that can help excite the base (ie Rolen) and also makes the Rolen move more palatable in an effort to win in 2010 instead of waiting til 2011. Also notice where Cabrera has been playing and given the park effect of Oakland vs Cincinnati, his numbers will almost automatically increase.
Cabrera may not have the defense that Janish does, but rumors of his decline are exagerated, IMO, and he is more than adequate. Especially sandwiched between two gold glovers. I would give Janish one or two starts a week, especially if we have a sinkerballer on the mound. Use him as a late inning replacement to keep Cabrera fresh. Cabrera is an upgrade. No doubt.
@preach: See my post at “On the payroll”. Just think the guy is starting to slide. Scares me that he’s been on 6 teams in the last 7 years.
Chad, couldn’t disagree with you more.
You want a reason? SS depth, for one.
What if Janish gets hurt? What if, low and behold, he DOESN’T morph into the .240 hitter that people keep asking for? Who else do we play there, Miguel Cairo?
Janish has never played a full MLB season as a starter. Never. But somehow, we’ve managed to watch him hit .205 in his 1 season plus. He plays defense…great defense, I think. We cite his UZR/150 as amazing, but conveniently forget how bad it was just the year before (-12.0). What if THAT Paul Janish is what we get day in, day out. Cozart’s not ready, and hasn’t proven/projected to be much more than Janish is right now. Rosales was bad last year.
There aren’t SS out there like in the 1990’s (ARod, Nomar, Tejada, etc.) who OPS .900, but there is Orlando Cabrera, who stays healthy, plays everyday, GOES TO THE PLAYOFFS REGULARLY, and can be signed for $2 million.
That’s a few good reasons. At that price, you have to sign Cabrera.
I like Janish. I am not enthused about signing Cabrera. The reason is that it goes against the plan. If Rolen was a bad idea then Cabrera is more. To me defensively it is Gonzales revisited. An old shortstop whose range is diminished.
But please, Cabrera won’t hit better than Janish? He led all major league shortstops in runs batted in in 2009. Yes even more than Jeter.
Why would the Rockies want him unless it is at a different position. Tulowitski is going anywhere. Sounds like he is out of options to go anywhere else. I think he signs with Reds because he is a Dusty type guy.
it won’t a world series, but the lineup of
Stubbs cf
dickerson lf
votto 1b
phillips 2nd (cuz this is how dusty would do it, now i)
rolen 3rd
bruce rf
hannigan/hernandez c
janish ss
pitch
that doesn’t sounds too bad to me for a team that is still growing and yet competitive.. I like Cabrera, just not at this age and this young team.. unless it’s a 1 year deal for like 2-4 mill.. than it’s not worth it in my opinion
Unless it is a 1 mil deal, I wouldn’t do it. The Rockies are most likely signing him for 2B and issuance on Tulowiski if he gets hurt for an extended amount of time. I agree on depth, but he won’t come in as a role player, he will want to start, and I think Janish is a more valuable player at this point when you consider his defense.
At the caravan last night, I got the sense from Jocketty it was just a matter of time until Cabrera was brought on board.
I for one agree. I do think cabrera has a chance to be an upgrade, but I don’t think it’s an absolute and its definitely questionable. I can live with a one year deal, but if it’s any more than that I will be very disappointed with our brass.
I’m sick of them taking shots at guys with major risks (for o-cab its a very poor OBP, he’s old, his defense is somewhere between moderate/questionable, he will probably hit for a poor average with only moderate power) on more than one year deals (i.e. taveras). He could be useful if he isn’t hitting in the 2 spot all the time (which he would be) and if he was platooned/def replacement with janish often.
I would rather they went after damon than o-cab.
@Kevin Mitchell is Batman: “You want a reason? SS depth, for one. What if Janish gets hurt? What if, low and behold, he DOESN’T morph into the .240 hitter that people keep asking for? Who else do we play there, Miguel Cairo?”
Excellent point. I’m also with Preach on this one. The thought of Adam Rosales on our ML roster, getting a lot of ABs, scares me. The same thought for Miguel Cairo is even more scary.
Chad did made a good counter argument in an earlier thread about this: The problem is Dusty will start Cabrera 85% (or whatever) of the time. This is a concern, Janish should be playing a reasonable amount, unlike last year when AGon was available. But I’m more concerned about the lack of depth at SS, and what would happen to our offense if a full-time Janish doesn’t manage the .240.
It looks like we might sign Gomes. That would be outstanding.
I think it’s a pretty smart move. We all want Janish to succeed and fill his potential of .240 but we can get a guy who has never hit below .250, except in his 18 at bats in his first call-up. I’d rather have Cabrera batting #2 wouldn’t you? Janish gets the edge for defense, but Cabrera has won a gold glove, does anyone really think Janish is going to be an everyday starter in this league the next 5 years and win a gold glove, I don’t believe so, but maybe the kid will prove me wrong. Everyone complains about the budget on these blogs like the money is coming out of their own pockets, if management wants to spend the money to get this guy or Damon great! These signings only add more depth to our team when Bruce and Rolen go down, Stubb hits his second year slump, and something tragic happens like what happened to Alex Gonzalez’s son, or the affects of loosing your father with Votto.
……Lather, rinse, repeat……. How many straight losing seasons will this be? Seriously, I’ve lost count. Do they not ever learn anything from their mistakes? This will most likely be your opening day lineup if they sign him.
Taveras
Cabrera
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Hernandez
Bruce
Dickerson
Harang
There is cheering in Pittsburg, they may escape the cellar.
1. Orlando Cabrera is not better than Paul Janish or Todd Frazier.
2. Everybody go check out Neyer’s Friday links and look at the two for projected standings. They will make you happy.
Cabrera really is a much better hitter than Janish, who we’re hoping will post something like .240/.310/.320 to go along with his fancy defense. OCab’s got a career .275/.322/.398 line, to go along with his declining defense.
And defense really is the key to assessing the relative value of these two. My eyes told me Janish was a fantastic defender last season, as did the numbers (24.6 UZR/150), and his reputation suggests he’ll provide the same sort of value this season. I’ve never really seen Cabrera play, but his defensive numbers were pretty brutal (-13.7 UZR/150) last season, in his age 34 year. However, he was at 13.1 the year before. So who knows?
My preference is to go with Janish as the starter, but he’s not without risk. Can he even hit up to his heretofore lowly standard? Can he handle a full ML season as a starter? Can he play every single inning of every game? We know the answer to that last one is no, and I don’t really see a backup. Frazier, maybe, but we don’t know. Not Rosales, hopefully not Cairo and maybe not Sutton.
The projections at Fangraphs have Janish as the better player (about 1.5 WAR vs. Cabrera’s 0.9 WAR), but most of his value is on defense. The Reds’ anticipated problem is on offense, so I can see where they’d be interested in Cabrera. But unless he comes very cheap and for one year, I’d rather roll the dice with our current Plans B and sign a LF who can lead off or hit cleanup (which I don’t believe Gomes can do full time). If they need a SS during the season, the trade market will have shaken out some by then.
Cabrera’s numbers have not declined in the last three years as you say:
2006 LAA 153 607 95 171 245 45 1 9 72 51 0 58 27 3 .282 .335 .404 .738 0.69
2007 LAA 155 638 101 192 253 35 1 8 86 44 0 64 20 4 .301 .345 .397 .742
2008 CWS 161 661 93 186 245 33 1 8 57 56 1 71 19 6 .281 .334 .371 .705 1.10
2009[+] 160 656 83 186 255 36 3 9 77 36 1 71 13 4 .284 .316 .389 .705
They have been pretty consistant and are MUCH higher than Janish can do offensively. I agree that Soft J’s Def will probably be better, but OC is a former two-time Gold Glover.
And like KM is Batman says above, at the very least it would give us SS depth, which we are sorely lacking at the time.
Chad, a great man once said, “Free your mind and the rest will follow..” OK, maybe not a great man, but you get the point.
Sounds good to me, say $2.5MM for one year + incentives, give or take. 1st hitter with Stubbs or 2nd hitter with Dickerson. They need a good hitter up there, big time!!!
Depth, depth, depth, you need depth. We don’t have it right now. We do have a lot of question marks, young and old (Rolen, as far as his health). If Cabrera is very low cost ($1M) and the Gomes signings is low cost (not much more than $2M), then do both.
It’s past time for a winning season.
At Caravan, both Dusty and Phillips gave Janish their vote of confidence. So you know we’re bringing in another SS.
I do not see Cabrera as any sort of upgrade at shortstop. It is real nice to have a shortstop that can be a 280 + hitter and maybe Janish will never be that? However, I will tell you this; the guy can pick it and with his defensive capabilities he is going to save some runs for the team and the pitchers on the mound. If memory serves, the Reds last year seemed to be a better team and they won more games when he was out there at shortstop. So, please, please do not sign Cabrera and go with Janish until you can develop or acquire a better option at the position. Hey, maybe Walt can use Alonso or Francisco as trade chips to acquire a major prospect at that position from another organization? That is what I would like to see.
I’d sure like to see 70+ RBI’s out of the SS position.
This is a shrewd move on Walt’s part. We have no depth, so signing OC to a one year deal does nothing to hurt our youth movement or imperil our long term budget. What is would do is create a situation where you can’t/shouldn’t have Janish on the ML roster. Frazier, Rosales, or Sutton would become the backup SS because of their versatility. Then you have a logjam at SS in Louisville. What do you do then?
You play Valaika and like it.
Orlando would be a great addition for all the many reasons that have been pointed out above. I like Janish, but we really do not know what he will do this up coming year. Orlando is a sure thing, absolutly an upgrade.
Like many other – too many other – personnel decisions for the Reds, it all depends on how Baker uses the players. Which means prepare for epic failure.
If Cabrera fills the role of a backup shortstop, playing 1-2 games per week, and there if the worst case happens with Janish at the plate, or Janish is injured. Pinch hitter. Great.
However, if Cabrera becomes the starting shortstop, with mediocre defensive skills, and declining offense, then not so great.
Too bad we not only don’t have a manager we can trust to figure this out, we have one who will almost certainly get it completely backwards.
The only reason to do it is for depth for 1 year. He also makes sense if Janish is up with two outs and guys on base. Otherwise, he’s not a bad idea as a pinch hitter.
Happy fact: Orlando Cabrera’s most similar player (according to baseball-reference.com) through age 34 is Dave Concepcion. : )
Sad fact: From age 35 on, Dave Concepcion put up a batting line of .251/.314/.318, for an OPS+ of 74. : (
I don’t hate the signing if it’s cheap, I guess, but I just don’t want to see us being the ones who wind up paying too much for Cabrera’s (or anyone’s) decline phase. We’ve seemed to do that way too much.
Janish’s defense is a luxury afforded to a team with an otherwise solid offense. There are so many other holes in the offense right now that Janish never made sense to me.
Cabrera is a perfect one year signing. He is not blocking anyone who is imminent. (How many MLB teams do you honestly think would want Janish as their starting SS?) So it doesn’t impact the long term plan in any way. Even if Frazier is the answer at SS in the long term, he isn’t going to be there before late this year.
This would only be a bad signing if the Reds lock themselves into some kind of multi-year deal.
And by the way… why can I see all too clearly that our offer to Cabrera is going to be a TWO-year deal? (Probably back-loaded too… which I am not a fan of.)
At one year… at a cheap-ish price… I’m OK with it. (I don’t love it… don’t really see a vast improvement here… but I’d be OK with it.)
But let’s not clog things up with a 2nd year. Just see Taveras to see how that can work out.
For a great read on O-Cab, see http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/has-orlando-cabrera-lost-a-step
Additionally, fangraphs compares O-Cab to Nick Punto. In reading the article, you might as well replace the name Nick Punto with Paul Janish. It reads exactly the same. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-twins-acquire-orlando-cabrera/
Good point. If they are going to do this, they need to make the offer based on what the Reds see as fair and reasonable for the Reds… please don’t make an offer to win the “bidding war” if there is one. Ignore all thoughts of other teams looking at him, and make a take it or leave it offer.
I think if any potential signing is automatically compared to Taveras’ it should be avoided at all costs. That said, I don’t put Cabrera and Taveras in the same category…I think Cabrera can be a decent addition (at least compared to what we have currently).
Your joking right?
Wow has any potential signing by the reds had such a response? I mean really usually everyone here is united in either it being good or bad, but this one is a split. Both sides bring out good points, interesting how both sides have merit and neither sides agree? Good job Walt…
@CeeKeR: True, that is a fair point. Taveras was a clear DOWNGRADE from Dickerson, immediately, and eventually blocked Stubbs too (who is also better than WT).
With Cabrera vs. Janish, it’s a tougher call. Cabrera might be a small upgrade this year actually.
But if there is a 2nd year offered, I’d have a real problem with that. In the 2nd year, Cabrera will be 36, and he might be blocking both Janish AND Cozart (and maybe even Valaika if he bounces back?) at that point.
And if Cabrera just stinks (it’s not likely, but not impossible either), he’ll be absolutely untradeable, like Taveras is.
@Drew Nelson: I agree, Drew… This one is a tough call.
Depends on the $$$ and the length of the deal, in my opinion.
Why are so many people claiming that a 35 year old shortstop is a known quantity. He is 35! And plays shortstop!
Last year, when you count fielding, Janish was better. This year, Janish also figures to be better. It doesn’t matter that the Reds “need” offense. A run prevented = A run scored. I’d love a shortstop that can hit more than Janish, but if he’s just going to give those extra runs right back on defense, what’s the point?
Honestly, I don’t really care. I think they’ll end up being about equivalent in terms of value, but there is a chance (and a pretty good one) that Cabrera will just fall apart. That’s not true of Janish. It’s not that it would be a bad signing, it’s that it wouldn’t really accomplish anything.
I’m sorry, calling Cabrera a SMALL upgrade at SS just isn’t fair, or accurate. And where is this proof of diminishing offensive skills on his part? I’m not a stat junkie, I admit it, but what I know I know. His offense has been consistently solid for years and he would be playing half his games this year in GABP as opposed to Yellowstone Park, which is that cavern in Oakland. I actually don’t think he lost a step personally, but even if he did, he is still above average on defense, and he is between two great defenders which will help mitigate any loss. I agree that if we sign him longer than one year we might be in trouble. This could also mean dealing Phillips mid-season, shifting Cabrera to second and allowing Janish to be the everyday SS. I think it helps much more than it hinders. And in the scheme of MLB, what the heck is $2 million dollars? It’s less than we paid for Willy. I’m not talking about signing a Rolen deal for this guy.
Does anyone have a link to some of the defensive stats for Cabrera? I have not seen him enough to know if his defense is really moving backwards or not. My real fear, as expressed by many above, is that if we sign him he ends up as the starting and playing the majority of innings. At some point, we need to give Janish enough abs to see if he can hit, and if they sign Cabrera to anything more than a one year deal, the concerns about blocking Frazier and company become very real.
@preach: I agree completely, preach.
Also, what if Rolen (inevitably) gets hurt? Francisco at 3rd makes E5 look like a 10 time Gold Glover, and Frazier’s barely spent any time there at all.
If anything, I think signing Cabrera means Walt & co. aren’t sold on Rosales, not Janish. Its obvious we need a useful infielder with enough bat to matter, and I wouldn’t be surpised to see us rotate our infield more than we have in times past (a la the Angels with Izturis/Aybar/Kendrick/Figgins). At least, I hope so.
Also, everyone in the Soft J camp points to his flawless defense, but I remember some periods of time when I could have sworn Lopez was our SS. I’m still not convinced he will be anything other than Juan Castro. And actually, I think Castro was a better defender. Let the objects begin to fly…..
Blocking Janish? Janish isn’t a prospect. He is Manos de Oro the II.
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so signing this guy is going to put the reds over the top?I don’t think so!look we are all tired of losing but once again signing another reject is not going to get the reds to the world series.once again I want to know what is wrong with using what we have?ok janish is not going to hit hit I get that but he plays greatd so bat him 8th and live with it.if something happens to him then that’s what the farm system is for!again the reds are only going to get good in the long term if the prospects they have get a chance to play.as someone else pointed out if they sign this guy you don’t think baker won’t have him in the starting lineup everyday?and I still say he will find a way to keep taveras in the lineup you.watch stubbs will have a couple bad days and boom there he is your starting centerfielder because stubbs isn’t ready according to baker.you watch it will happen and then we will be right back same as last year.
Agree that Janish is not a prospect, but the issue is whether he offers more value at $400K than Cabrera would offer at, most likely, five times that amount this season and probably next. The projections say Janish is worth about half a win more than Cabrera. Here’s the relevant portion of the June 2009 Fangraphs analysis david linked above:
“This year, he’s down to two stolen bases (against four caught-stealings) and a speed score half his average (2.5). His BABIP, a number that is tied to speed, is in a three-year decline. That’s more than a step slow, that seems like a leg or foot injury… or a quick decline.
“Consider that his speed score, which was never elite in the first place, is actually in a four-year decline. His stolen-base success rate in 2008 was his lowest since 2001. It certainly looks like Orlando Cabrera has lost a step – or even more than a step. Since speed is a big part of both his offensive and defensive game, it follows that his value has quickly entered a decline phase.”
I’m not completely opposed to signing Cabrera, depending on yearly cost/contract length/player usage, because the Reds have a clear need for another ML-ready SS, but I don’t understand why they’re so willing to go into another season with below-average offensive production from LF. That’s such an easy spot to upgrade!
preach, Janish was better than Cabrera last year, according to the advanced metrics (check the links in my latest Cabrera screed). Why should we expect that Cabrera will improve at age 35?
And Cabrera was WAY below average on defense last year.
If we sign this guy, we have to keep our fingers crossed and hope that last year was an aberration and that he will improve as a 35 year old shortstop. Not a gamble worth taking. It won’t kill the Reds (because Janish is no great shakes either), but we will have to watch him hit second all year for Dusty. I can’t deal with that.
So I agree that calling Cabrera a SMALL upgrade at SS isn’t accurate. I think the chances are better than even that Cabrera will be a slight downgrade.
He is a vet with WS experience, that alone will lead Walt and company to bring him. With the amount of young talent we have, I don’t see a downside of adding a good vet who isn’t a downgrade at the position he plays.
“preach, Janish was better than Cabrera last year, according to the advanced metrics (check the links in my latest Cabrera screed).”
These must be the same metrics used to balance our state’s budget.
No way. No way in heck was Janish better with a bat in his hand than Cabrera last year. No. Way. Possible.
Never has been, and cannot be.
And Cabrara’s defense is not in some free-fall. It’s just not. Yes, he’s 35. don’t sign him for more than a one year deal.
And if anyone believes for a second that a combo of Cabrera/Janish would outplay Janish/Rosales please e-mail me because I want to sell you a car.
Excuse me, I meant would NOT outplay….
Go look at the links, preach.
And no one said Janish was better with the bat. But he was SO MUCH better in the field, it made him slightly better overall. What good is improving on offense if you are just going to give up those runs, and more, with the guy in the field?
Maybe you watched Cabrera every day last year so you have some insight into his defense. I don’t know. You seem pretty certain, but you aren’t really providing any evidence for your position other than “I KNOW THIS”. I respect your opinions here, which is the only reason I’m bothering to respond.
The defensive metrics say his defense has fallen off a cliff, and that’s not an unsurprising result for a 35 year old shortstop. It happens to the best of them.
I don’t know who would outplay the other. They both stink, frankly. But Janish is cheaper and at an age where he could be expected to improve. And if Cabrera isn’t a clear upgrade, why waste our time?
Exactly
@Chad Dotson:
The same metrics say Cabrera was worth almost 4 WAR and $16 million the two years before last. The pattern says that last year was an outlier. He left the As to go to the Twins and IMPROVED, just like every other player has who has recently left Oakland (see Holliday, Matt). And everyone pointing out how he would have to adjust to the NL…the NL is the easier league.
Yeah, but can Cabrera pitch? lol….Actually, I don’t like the idea that the guy has played on 6 teams in 7 years. If he is that valuable, why hasn’t a team kept him? I agree we need a reliable back-up to Rolen (and Janish, though not AS badly). Just don’t think Cabrera is the guy.
Preach, never thought this day would come, but I have to disagree. I would prefer he not be signed. I’m not strongly against it, just unsettled about it.
A run saved = a run earned… perhaps. The Reds need a hitter, no doubt. One hitter helps two others, the guy in front, and the guy behind. But I don’t think Orlando Cabrera is that guy. He has a decent AVG, but his OBP is not impressive, nor are his power numbers. His walk to strikeout is not bad, but not good enough to see good pitches. He’s not a threat to steal. He’s got a Dunn UZR!! Please, no. Janish has been talking about how he is aware this is a problem and he’s been working hard this offseason. He didn’t say who, but he said he’s been working with someone and has fixed a whole bunch of things. Obviously, the proof is in the pudding, but I’ve been saying I trust his work ethic and I stick by it. Leave Janish in there during ST a bit, then if need be, do something… like trade for Stephen Drew.
Reds signed Orlando Cabrera.
[...] was pretty vocal about my wish that Walt Jocketty avoid signing Orlando Cabrera. I had my reasons, which you [...]