Loading ...So, we’re nearly three weeks away from seeing Reds’ pitchers and catchers report to the new spring training facility in Arizona. I just don’t know if I can wait that long for some real baseball news.
There are a number of questions the Reds will have to answer this spring, so I expect it to be a fairly eventful camp. Some items that I will be watching closely:
–How is the left field situation going to shake out? There are a number of options: Laynce Nix, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier, Joey Votto (just seeing if you’re paying attention).
–Who is going to win the fifth spot in the rotation? The first four should be, in no particular order, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey. Will Micah Owings win that fifth spot again (or will he be in the mix for the left field job)? Will Matt Maloney earn it? What about a guy like Travis Wood? Or Aroldis Chapman?
–Is Paul Janish going to be the everyday shortstop, or will something crazy happen this spring (a surprise signing or trade, or the emergence of Frazier as a candidate)?
–How is the whole Drew Stubbs/Willy Taveras situation in centerfield going to resolve itself?
–Are the Reds going to show any signs of putting together an offense that can improve on last year’s putrid performance?
Forgive my random musings on this Tuesday morning. It’s freezing cold here and it snowed last night and I’m tired of winter. I’m ready for spring.
I’m ready for baseball.
I’ll be driving over from Socal for a long weekend to see some games. Can’t wait!!
Here is my prediction for the 25 man roster opening day:
(or at least how I would like to see it)
SP
Bailey (will start opening day)
Cueto
Harang
Arroyo
Maloney
RP
Cordero
Massett
Rhodes
Burton
Owings
Fisher
Ondrusek
Catching
Hernandez
Hanigan
Starting Infield
Votto
Phillips
Janish
Rolen
Infield Bench
Frazier
Sutton
Starting Outfield
Bruce
Stubbs
Dickerson
Outfield Bench
Balentien
Nix
I think Frazier will play all the infield positions at one time or another and will play some LF. Willie will be traded or DFAed.
I too am looking forward to baseball season, but since I am a Colts fan, I will wait until after the Super Bowl to get revved up.
I know I will throw-up in my mouth a little when Taveras leads of for the first time in spring training….
Yes, the Colt’s long run into the playoffs is really shortening the baseball offseason for me.
Chad – don’t forget Balentien!
@RedBlooded: The bullpen gets interesting after Cordero, Masset, Burton and Rhodes. They’ll likely go with a 2nd lefty, and I’d expect Herrera to remain on the 25-man roster. Two spots for a slew of guys. If Mike Lincoln is healthy, he’ll be one of them.
There are a couple of scenarios under which Willy is gone. 1) Nix makes the team as the 5th OFer (2) A minor leaguer makes the team as the starting LFer, pushing Dickerson & Balentien to the 4th and 5th OF spots.
Balentin better have a good spring or Juan Francisco is going to take that spot. That kid can hit.
If I’m the Reds, I throw anything and everything at the Marlins for HanRam. I am still on the record as saying Ramirez will be traded either this year or next before he accounts for 40% of the team’s payroll. Would a package of Janish/Cozart, Francisco, Alonso, Wood be enough?
Word is that the Cubs might sign Johnny Gomes. How would the citizens of Redleg Nation feel about that ?
I’d still hate the Cubs.
What a great site I just found. I too can not wait for spring.
To David: while I agree Hanley is not going to finish the year in FL, I can;t see Ciny making a sreious run at him. Though it would be a nice offensive addition.
@preach: Why do you hate the Cubbies so much? After all, they are so much fun to beat up on! They never win anything. Their fans even fill lots of seats for us at GABP when they’re in town. That means we can afford better players (don’t we wish!).
[...] Chad Dotson of Reds Blog, RedLegNation.com has the key questions facing the Reds heading into the 2010 [...]
There are a couple of scenarios under which Willy is gone.1) Nix makes the team as the 5th OFer (2) A minor leaguer makes the team as the starting LFer, pushing Dickerson & Balentien to the 4th and 5th OF spots.
There are actually a number of scenarios where Willy is gone. Competition w/ Nix is not one of them. Nix will or won’t be the left handed backup. Francisco will be competing with Nix. Francisco is not ready and may never be. Nix will win in Spring Training. Francisco starts in AAA. Willy is right handed. So he will be competing with Balentien and Heisey. I predict Willy will be desperate to stay on the roster and will set the all time record for stolen bases in spring training. But it won’t be enough. Dusty likes to tell himself stories and the story he has now is that Willy is Wally (as in Wally Pipp) Dusty doesn’t give up his stories easily.
again I do not understand the fasination with balentine. the mariners got rid of him for a reason and I for 1 was not impressed with what he showed after he got here.I would rather heisey or dickerson be playing.preferbly heisy so he can get the experiance now and play alongside stubbs and bruce.that would give the reds a young experianced outfield for years to come.isn’t thewhole idea of a farm system to develop your own players? well now that they have with the outfield play them instead of somebody else’s reject!
Willy has about as much chance of making the Opening Day 25-man roster as the Reds do of landing Hanley Ramirez.
As much as I’d like him gone, just on principle, there’s no sense getting rid of him now since they’re paying him anyway. Maybe one of our guys in the CF mix will get hurt and they’ll need him to fill in for a while, or maybe someone on another team will get hurt and they’ll be able to unload him on them. (You gotta think Jocketty was trying to talk Omar Minaya into letting Willy fill in for the injured Beltran before the Mets acquired Gary Matthews Jr.) Stubbs showed last season that he’s capable of hitting ML pitching, so he’d really have to fall on his face to lose out to Taveras.
As for HanRam, the Marlins just signed Josh Johnson to an extension and took Dan Uggla after MLB strongly suggested they spend more on payroll, so the odds of them trading the best non-Pujols player in the NL while the taxpayers build them a stadium are even slimmer than they were in December. And besides, do you really want to give up one of Cueto or Bailey and Bruce or Votto for Ramirez? I sure don’t, and that’s what he’d cost.
*took Dan Uggla off the trade market.
David, There is no fascination with Balentien. He played pretty well last year after he got here. He may or may not have potential. But he is out of options. You either have to keep him on the 25 man or lose him. I think it is worth a shot to see if he can continue and improve on the end of last season and be a late bloomer, especially if he hits well in ST. It is not going to hurt Heisey (or the Reds) for him to go to AAA. Hopefully he will learn even more about hitting right handed pitching and be a viable full time hitter. Balentien is going to be a right handed backup or platoon player. I think Dickerson will get the majority of starts because he is left handed and most of the opposition pitching will be right handed. Dickerson does not hit left handed pitching well so Balentien should start against left handers as a platoon. If he stumbles, then right handed hitting Heisey will get his shot.
Forget Ramirez, too expensive on several levels, what it would take in a trade and salary.
Yep, completely forgot Balentien. Sorry about that. Just going off the top of my head.
I don’t really know what to make of Balentien. His minor league numbers suggest he may be a decent option, but I don’t know if he’ll get the chance. He hasn’t been great as a major leaguer, but I can’t say I’ve been unimpressed after watching him.
Toss him into the mix….
@Glenn: I’m afraid Francisco is Adam Dunn Lite. There’s some value in that, but the guy is brutal defensively. I’ll be convinced he can play LF when I see it. He certainly can’t play 3B.
I think folks are overestimating Stubbs as a lock in CF. He only hit .267 /w a .323 OBP in his callup, it’s not like he was Dale Murphy. Don’t be suprised if Dickerson at least worms his way into a platoon situation given his better OBP skills. I’m not hatin’ on Stubbs, I just don’t think he raised the bar to an unattainable level.
In LF, I think we’re headed for a Belentein/Nix platoon at least to open the season, with the rest headed to AAA for some marinating. Personally, I’d love to see Francisco tear the cover off the ball and take Nix’s job, but the rationale for sending him down is solid. There’s no way he’s Dunn lite, he’s way more athletic than even the younger Donkey.
@Sultan of Swaff: Also unlike Dunn, Francisco has yet to show the ability to take a walk. I’m going to remain skeptical until he proves himself over a full season. He scares me more than any other Reds’ prospect.
If the Reds could land Ramirez (trading minor leaguers, not Cueto+Bruce), they should do it. However, I think the Marlins payroll situation was more than “strongly suggested” by MLB. I thought I read that MLB, the players union and the Marlins agreed to a minimum payroll while the new stadium is getting built. I don’t see them moving Ramirez. He’s making the same as Phillips the next two years, then $15M per year for 3 years after they’ve moved into their new stadium.
@RedBlooded Re Balentien: Exactly. And I think he is one of the reasons the Reds decided not to retain Gomes.
I realize Balentien is not a given, but assuming the first four outfielders on the depth chart are – Bruce, Stubbs, Dickerson, Balentien – I believe the 5th outfielder could be LH or RH. That spot is technically Taveras going into spring training because he has the major league deal and Nix the minor league deal. But I don’t think Taveras is only competing with other right-handed batters.
@David Kaiser: I think Balentien is the same type of player as Gomes but with plus defense. His ML numbers are as good or better than everyone else outside of Bruce.
Also to everyone that wants Hanley, sorry but it’s not going to happen. The Marlins are basically being forced to spend more money, and he is about their only draw at this point. They just threw money at Johnson unexpectedly and took Uggla off the market. I still think Uggla gets traded at the deadline, but they will keep Hanley.
I don’t think any of the prospects make the team out of ST. I also think Stubbs has a chance of getting bumped out if he struggles this spring. Fransisco needs to work on defense, Frazier & Heisey need more time in AAA, Valaika needs another year to get back to where he was before last year. I would be shocked if Sutton and Rosales were not the two IF bench spots out of ST. The outfield will have Bruce, Dickerson, Balentien and then a combo of Stubbs, Taveras, Nix.
I think by mid-season though, Frazier, Heisey, Cozart, and Fransisco will be considered to be moved up if guys are not performing. Janish will get at least 2 full months before he is in danger to lose his starting job.
The first option for the five OF starting positions are Bruce, Taveras, Balentien, Dickerson and Nix. Changes will show-up as long as any of those have a very bad performance during the spring. Only then any of the outsiders will step into the picture: Stubbs, Francisco, Heisey and/or Frazier. Personally I think that Bruce, Stubbs and Nix will make it as RF, CF and 5th spots. The LF and 4th spots will be among Heisey, Dickerson or Balentien. Taveras will be traded or DFA, Frazier could fit as bench IF and Francisco will remain in AAA a bit longer.
@Travis G.: We’ve gone rounds on this before and your position is completely obtuse. There are several facts.
1) In 2010, Hanley Ramirez will account for approximately 25% of the team’s expected payroll.
2) In 2011, Hanley Ramirez will account for approximately 40% of the team’s expected payroll.
3) No team has ever won a championship with one player accounting for as much as 25% of the team’s payroll.
4) The Marlins do not have the funds required to extend Hanley Ramirez beyond 2014.
5) If HanRam is not traded, then in 2015 he will be a type A free agent awarding the Marlins a mid to low first round pick (picks 1-15 are protected).
Here’s the analysis. Hanley Ramirez will not benefit the team’s present or future ability to win a championship. In the present, Hanley accounts for far too much of the team’s payroll. History says that his contract is a detriment to winning now. In the longterm, trading Hanley for 4, 5, or 6 prospects of quality makes more sense than allowing him to walk after 2014 for one mid-first round prospect (at best).
Nothing here jives with the Marlin’s business model. At best, I give Hanley one more full year in Florida. Your assumption that the Reds would have to trade Cueto/Votto/Bruce for Hanley is just incorrect. Given the packages put together for players such as Cliff Lee, Doc Holladay, et al. your out of line in your expectations of what the Marlins would/would not take.
strange things can happen in spring training, but generally, the more established player makes it over the less established player (depending on options). using that logic, the position battles would look like this:
lf: dickerson, nix, balentein, francisco, frazier
cf: wily, stubbs
ss: janish, frazier
5th starter: maloney, owings, wood
so i ask myself, if there’s an upset in there, where is it most likely. well, to start, go with the guys that lost their positions last year, being wily and owings. i think both will get bumped.
then look for who is not very well established, which can be said about maloney and janish.
here’s my prediction: dickerson takes left and stubbs takes center with anything but a terribly spring. janish and maloney have the inside track on ss and the 5th spot, but huge performances from frazeir and wood could swing those battles.
but again, crazy stuff happens in spring training.
Would anyone else like to see an offer go out to Damon @ $3-4 mil/yr to man LF?
To that end, is anyone else suprised we haven’t chosen one of Harang or Arroyo and pulled a Rolen-type extension to lessen the salary hit this year? Give one of those two a one year extension for $8mil and you have some free cash to go after Damon or Cabrera. I’m not advocating for those guys, but it would be a creative way to bring in some talent IF your intent is to try and win now.
The Damon situation is similar to last year’s Abreu situation. Look at the year he had playing for a contract and how nice it would have been having him in the lineup. I know many people on this site who were clamoring for the Reds to go after him. I think this is a similar deal. I like Sultan’s idea of coming to someone with a contract extension dependent on deferring some of this year’s salary. I’d go with CoCo though.
A one year deal with Damon would get my approval.
As it stands now, if Stubbs isn’t ready then we probably have an even weaker OF than last year.
We could use a veteran OFer who brings some offense and we also need someone who can do some damage as a pinch hitter. With Johnny Gomes we could get both.
But I would prefer one year of Damon at the right price.
@david: That was before the minimum payroll stipulation, though, right? And doesn’t take into account what their business model will be with the new stadium. Trading Hanley Ramirez would likely hurt any chances to having strong ticket sales those first couple of seasons.
@al: Owings/Maloney will be an interesting battle. Most people have written Owings off. As long as he can show better control, I think being out of options will give him a slight edge over Maloney.
@Ben Sheets: He signed a $10M 1 year deal with the A’s today.
The A’s are also linked in rumors to Damon.
@GregD: Speaking of the A’s they just dropped $8mil on Ben Sheets. Glad we don’t have to face that guy 6 times in a year… you know, assuming his iron-man tradition of never missing a start in Milwaukee.
@Matt WI: Nevermind… didn’t see your post above the Damon one. My bad.
To comment on a couple of things that have been discussed.
The Reds will be no better able to pay Ramirez than the Marlins. He is going to end up in Boston, NY, Chicago or LA. The Reds will have a tough enough time keeping Votto themselves.
RedBlooded:
Where is Daniel Ray? The guy was great in ’09. They will definitely have more than one lefty in the pen. I think Ondrusek will still be in AA or AAA.
and
I can not see the Reds keeping Fraiser as a back-up, especially this year. As it stands now it would be Rosales (and after his Winter I’m not sure he doesn’t deserve another shot).
You have to think of the Jocketty factor with Balentein. He acquired him so he won’t be quick to cut him.
Mt prediction is Jermaine Dye will be the opening Day leftfielder and don’t be suprised if Taveras doesn’t take some ground balls at second base and Hernandez at third in the Spring. If that proves out there could be and extra outfield sub and one less infield.
Bold predictions sir. Hard to imagine an organization that wouldn’t let Brandon Phillips move over to short would let Willy loose turning the double play. I was thinking more like trying him out at Bat-Boy.
I thought the same thing. In fact, just like Chad, I kept forgetting about him, that is until Gomes left. Junior called Marty when the Reds acquired him to sing his praises and said he was impressed with WB’s defense and power. Look again. You might think differently. Upon further review, reversed my own call on the field.
Damn, quoted the wrong guy. Sorry RB, I meant to quote David as well.
There’s been chatter all day among the sportswriters I follow on Twitter re: Damon. Basically, they’re saying the Yankees are waiting for him to take $2 million from them, so he might be better off taking $3 million to $4 million from the A’s (or whomever). Fangraphs says in a post today that “Damon is easily worth $8 to $10 million for 2010,” so getting him at less than half that cost is pretty nice.
I also happen to think Damon would generate more buzz than any acquisition the Reds could reasonably make at this point, which could help pay that deal pay for itself.
@Mark in CC: Wow, some of your predictions are from out in left field… And I like it! Excellent thinking outside the box.
That said I think current management lacks that kind of creative thinking, so what you propose is highly unlikely.
In honor of RBd’s 25 roster and answers to Chad’s questions, here’s my predictions (brace yourself to be completely unamazed.)
SP: Arroyo (opening day), Harang, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney
RP: Cordero (CL), Massett, Rhodes, Herrera, Lincoln, Owings, and Burton
OF: Bruce (RF), Taveras (CF), Dickerson/Balentien (LF platoon), Nix (bench, 25th man)
IF: Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Rosales (bench), Sutton (bench)
C: Hernandez, Hanigan
Additionally: Due to contractual obligations Stubbs will start in AAA. And yes, the Reds are better slightly better than the offense they mustered last year. Add Rolens, a better Janish than last years Janish, Rosales, and AGon tanden, Bruce will rebound, and Dickerson will get more PAs. Taveras will start in CF because of insanity in the dugout, but he will be released by May after fans pass a collection bucket at games to buy out his contract themselves
.
Sorry, got so focused on the joke that I forgot how to spell.
Hey, why not. Let’s start a “Free Willy Fundraiser” (Thanks to preach for being the first to post “Free Willy”).
Man – I resist checking the Nation at work one day, and you guys hash this whole thing out without me.
Did you read the article on Reds.com about the encouraging increase in ticket sales, especially season passes?
It seems that they asked season ticket holders and other fans in the stands last season about what they liked and didn’t like, etc..
What they found was that customer satisfaction “didn’t have much to do with the product on the field” or something to that effect..
They need to ask the Nation!
How are the Reds going to answer all these questions?
Fay is reporting the reds’ interest in orlando cabrera. i hope they’re not being enticed by his 77 rbi, the guy is not a good hitter, and his defense is declining.
he’s probably a better option than janish if he plays for league min, but he’s not worth shelling out for.
Because I like this kind of thing, here is my 25 man rosters prediction:
Rotation: Harang (opener), Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, Maloney
Bullpen: Cordero (closer), Masset, Herrera, Rhodes, Lincoln, Owings, Burton
Starting Lineup: Stubbs(CF), Dickerson(LF), Votto(1B), Rolen(3B), Phillips(2B), Bruce(RF), Hernandez(C), Frazier(SS)*
Bench: OF: Taveras & Balentin
IF: Janish, Rosales
*This is my wild card. You have to take risks to get it right. Plus, I’d like to see it.
My only hope is that management isn’t tempted by fans calling for Frazier, Heisey, Alonso, et. al after they put up above average numbers in spring training. The minor league system seems to be blossoming finally, with prospects emerging at the AAA level, let them blossom there before sending them up to the big club. More experience at a higher level can only be helpful at this point. The other point I would like to mention is I wouldn’t count on Fransisco to aide Cincinnati in the short term or the long run, except if by trade. If ever there was a player destined to be a DH it is him. The defense is finally improving, there is no need to take a step backwards at this point when there are relatively equal options for the same price.
Do you mean there in no need to take a step backwards defensively when there are equal options to Francisco’s bat for the same price?
I think you’ve hit on the consensus here regarding his defense, though I’m not sure how price figures in. Power like his doesn’t come cheap. Certaining not at the tune of 405K. He’s power is the real deal. Cincinnati hasn’t seen power hitting like Francisco’s since Dunn got traded. Someone else called him Dunn lite. I’ve seen him hit and he is perfectly capable of splashing a ball down in the Ohio river. He’s got as much natural talent as anyone in the system, but his skills aren’t as sharp as others at his level. He can hit homeruns, yawn, what else you got?
Someone also said Francisco is the prospect that scared him most. That makes that two of us. Sadly, I think the value he will ultimately bring will be in who he brings to Cincinnati in a trade.
A high priority has to be a reliable back-up to Rolen. He surely won’t play more than 110-120 games again. Gotta figure he gets somewhere around 400 or so ABs. That leaves 200 ABs for someone else. Is Rosales the one we want to get those? If not him, then Sutton? Either way, Rolen could miss even significantly more time due to injury. Let’s hope Dusty uses him wisely and gives him plenty of rest when needed to keep the “old man” going. Please, no 17 inning games for Scott.
@JasonL: Awesome.
Oh, if only.
So… Willy Mo Pena Lite? I’ll take another Bronson Arroyo please.
I just read that article. Shouldn’t they be asking questions to the people who leave the 30,000 OTHER seats empty?
I agree but the question of course is at what point would we be “shelling out” for him ? I’d approve a $2M deal for him, and probably a little more. Right now we have so many question marks in the OF and SS, Cabrera is a declining but nonetheless a known quantity. Even if he’s a little below league average overall at SS, that might turn out to be a lot better than Janish, even with Paul’s excellent D.
Like just about everyone else, I’m concerned about our offense.
P.S. I got mentioned on John Fay’s blog today. I was “reader Mike.” I know, not too big a deal, but he seems like an OK guy.
More infield depth would be another reason to bring in someone like Cabrera. I saw way too much of Rosales last year.
The problem is that Cabrera will be the starter 85% of the time, and he isn’t good anymore, if he ever was.
Way to go Pinson! We all respect your opinions and analysis here, so why shouldn’t John Fay?
And Bill Bray is out of options.
I heard Bray won’t be ready for the start of the season and will probably start out on the DL.
@TC: Thanks TC !
Have I mentioned lately how excited I am about seeing this guy at spring training:
The Reds’ new pitching coach got an advanced look at (Aroldis) Chapman last week in Arizona …
“I was very impressed,” Price said. “He was more advanced than I anticipated in regard to his delivery and location and his ability with three pitches …
“Nothing would surprise or disappoint me,” Price said. “He will turn 22 in February. His arm and athleticism say he’s not far away. We’ll have six weeks to see where he is. He could either be ready for the big leagues by April 5 or he might still have to add some polish in the Minor Leagues. We just want to get him here and get acclimated and we’ll wait and see.”
As a fan, it’s going to be a lot of fun to track his progress this spring. I was just talking about this with a co-worker, and we agreed that it might be easier for him to adjust to life in the U.S. as a Major Leaguer. He’d have a manager and coach who speak Spanish and several Spanish-speaking teammates from the Caribbean, and he wouldn’t be riding the bus across the deep south and midwest with a bunch of college-age Americans.