Loading ...Fangraphs.com took an in-depth look Thursday on Johnny Cueto’s 2009 campaign compared to his 2008 rookie season.
There are a lot of good statistics, including whiff rate by type of pitch, and analysis at the link. David Golebiewski makes the following conclusion:
Entering 2010, Cueto’s value is hard to gauge. Is he healthy? While his innings totals haven’t been abusive, Cueto has logged a significant workload in the majors at a young age. And, can he regain the bite on that once-plus slider, while honing his changeup? To this point, his fastball has been a slightly below-average offering (-0.3 runs per 100 pitches), with the slider also in the red at -0.09 runs/100. The neglected changeup checks in at an ugly -1.12.
Cueto is plenty talented and has time on his side. But in order to take the next step, he must show durability and develop those secondary offerings.
Cueto’s progress is going to be a key component to the Reds ability to win more than 50% of their games in the first part of this decade. I’m hoping the drop in his performance is attributed largely to his Winter Ball and WBC workload, and that he comes to camp this Spring, healthy and rested.
let’s just hope he is consistant this year.sick of the great starts then nothing after all star break.seriously if he goes 5 innings after that it’s a great game by him no matter how many runs he gives up.why is it ok for him to struggle but if baily does he is a bum and must be sent back to the minors?
For the long term, I’m pretty happy if Cueto slots in as a tough #3 man in a rotation. His stuff is electric enough where he can pitch like a #1 for brief periods of time… which is why it would be fantastic if our pitching staff was so strong he was 3rd. Healthy Volquez, an on-track Bailey, and whatever happens with Chapman and Leake. Sounds great to me.
David, dude, why are you so negative all the time? Chill out a minute, this is one of the few times a year you can be optimistic and full of hope as a Reds fan. Seriously, though, it is not uncommon for young players, esp pitchers, to hit a wall towards the end of a long season.Hopefully, his stamina will come and he will be solid for an entire season, but be patient with him, he’s still young.
I’m giving Johnny a complete pass on last year. He was doomed from the start by the WBC. It was beyond clear he was fatigued by July and management kept running him out there. Heck, skipping him a few times would’ve done wonders, but nooo. Even so, he wasn’t too shabby.
I would make a preseason plan to rest my starters once or twice during a season when they start to wear down–like an off week in football. I think you’ll see teams do more of that in the future.
I thought it was beyond irresponsible for the Reds to keep running him out there last July, when the team went into a tailspin and he was clearly fatigued. He shouldn’t have been pitching, and we all got lucky that he didn’t get hurt.
Both Cueto and Bailey are young and have a lot to learn. Bailey himself admits that he had some attitude adjusting to do early on. That could have been a factor in his rear end (and his pitching arm) getting shipped to Louisville.
We’e seen the new and improved Bailey, as a pitcher and as a man — now let’s hope for big progress from Cueto this season.
Can someone point to me the heavy workload in WBC that Cueto and Volquez supposedly had last spring? The Dominican was one of the first teams knocked out and neither one of those pitched harder there than they would have in Reds camp. I have never understood how everyone blamed Cueto’s obvious wearing down in the middle of the season on the WBC and not that fact he’s just not a big person and he just might not have the stamina for a full big league season.
@The Mad Hatter: Didn’t Cueto also pitch in winter ball prior to the WBC ?
Absolutely. I’ve posted this same comment several times. They not only didn’t skip him, they didn’t even move him back a day. The result: a bunch of shellings in a row and he ends up on the DL.
Let’s just hope they don’t rush Volquez back too soon. I can see 2011 possibly shaping up at the year the Reds make it back to the playoffs, either as a wildcard or as winning a weak central division.
@pinson343:
..and I’ve gone on about wishing management could be wise enough to get the best out of the players we have.
Cueto and Volquez are prime examples — both could be stars if they played up to their potential and stayed healthy.
@The Mad Hatter: Here’s the article I was thinking of. I thought it was Cueto who was being pitched over his pitch count limits in winterball, but it was Volquez.
Cueto threw 4.2 innings in a March 8 WBC start. Pitchers in spring training are just starting out with 3 innings that early in Spring.
Cueto has thrown winterball before the 2008 season, threw the most professional innings he’s thrown in 2008, then threw in winterball prior to 2009. Then WBC in early 2009. He just isn’t getting the normal offseason rest that starters should be getting.
Pitching in a competitive tournament’s also different than getting in some work in ST games, as well, but I do think his size is a concern. Not necessarily a deal-breaker for his future prospects (see: Martinez, Pedro), but something to factor in when you’re adding up all his extracurricular work.
@The Mad Hatter: It is fact that the WBC is hard on pitchers. Mostly because they are gearing up and trying to throw 100% when they are normally throwing 80%. Just look at the list of pitchers from last year that was biten by the WBC bug: Volquez, Dice-K, Peavy just to name a few, they all got hurt this year. This happened last time in the WBC, and that is why most of the top pitchers didn’t pitch this time around.
Cueto pitching his most innings (not to mention jumping from AA) in 08, winterball in 08, WBC in 09. He was shot by the middle of July because he never rested in the offseason. I am glad he wad barred from throwing winterball this year.
This is the year he needs to make improvements and prove he can be a realiable starter. With his frame and motion, it was considered borderline if he could stick as a starter his whole career.
@Travis G.: I don’t think anyone has ever shown that small pitchers break down and a greater rate than bigger guys.
I’m not going to lie, I’m a fan of the WBC. I also realize that historically pitchers that have participated in the tournament have a track record of appearing on the DL later in the year. I just don’t think that in the case of Cueto or Volquez that the WBC played a part in either of their struggles or injuries last year. If there is one thing that can be pointed to as Greg did is both of their workloads throughout the offseason in winter ball. Winter ball is great for position players but I think the heavy workloads you see on young pitchers is not the best of ideas for future development.