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From Baseball America:
Top-10 Prospects:
1. Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2. Yonder Alonso, 1b
3. Mike Leake, rhp
4. Chris Heisey, of
5. Juan Francisco, 3b
6. Yorman Rodriguez, of
7. Travis Wood, lhp
8. Matt Maloney, lhp
9. Brad Boxberger, rhp
10. Zack Cozart, ss
My only problem with this list is that Leake and Boxberger’s professional experience is a total of 28 1/3 innings. I wouldn’t list anyone on my “top prospects” list until they had a season of minor league baseball under their belt. I have a bit of a problem with Francisco at #5, but he had a great offensive season last year; hopefully it’ll continue.
Best Tools:
Best Hitter for Average: Yonder Alonso
Best Power Hitter: Juan Francisco
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Yonder Alonso
Fastest Baserunner: Theodis Bowe
Best Athlete: Yorman Rodriguez
Best Fastball: Brad Boxberger
Best Curveball: Mike Leake
Best Slider: Mark Serrano
Best Changeup: Travis Wood
Best Control: Matt Maloney
Best Defensive Catcher: Chris McMurray
Best Defensive Infielder: Miguel Rojas
Best Infield Arm: Juan Francisco
Best Defensive Outfielder: David Sappelt
Best Outfield Arm: Yorman Rodriguez
So, what are your thoughts?
As an update from MLB.com:
On Thursday, Mike Leake put an exclamation point on a year in which he led the nation in wins for Arizona State University, was a Golden Spikes finalist and was selected by Cincinnati in the first round of the Draft.
Leake allowed two hits and struck out four over four shutout innings as the Peoria Saguaros defeated the Mesa Solar Sox, 8-1, in the final game of the Arizona Fall League regular season.
Leake ended up with 9 1/3 scoreless innings after finishing his junior season with the Sun Devils with a 16-1 record.
Also:
Reds prospect Yonder Alonso doubled and drove in a pair of runs…
The top 10 seems pretty legit. I don’t understand all the love for Boxberger…I know Doug had him in the top 10 as well, but he wasn’t even all that proven in college like Leake was. Rodriguez seems a little high as well, but given his age and ability I could seem him growing into that kind of talent.
I’m sure this top 10 list is better than many others, so that is always nice.
It’s no surprise that BA ranked Leake as high as they did. They did the same thing for Yonder though he had no pro experience.. except he was rated #1, correct? I could be wrong there. Is Yorman Rodriguez old enough to drive yet?
I don’t necessarily see what’s so special about pro experience. As I understand it, the best college teams are often already equivalent to at least low-A and sometimes high-A professional teams.
IMO, it’s a different game simply b/c of the wood/aluminum bat issue. I prefer to see how someone performs at the professional level before giving them too much credit.
This is a completely fair list. If it were me, I would make Boxberger’s inclusion conditional—he makes the list if used in relief, but I don’t see him panning out as a starter. I hope I’m wrong.
If it’s true what Marty Brennaman said last night that Heisey is #1 on the depth chart in left field, that would be to the exclusion of Todd Frazier, who we know can play the position. Reading the tea leaves, it may mean that Phillips is done as a Red to clear a spot for Frazier at 2b.
I agree Bill. I don’t see how they can
be on a top 10 list either without showing some indication of success at
the professional level. Until they show me something, it is mostly hype.
Granted, some can be expected to produce more than others, but the proof is in the results.
@Sultan of Swaff: I would think Frazier is more likely at 3B(at least I hope so).
I rank them Frazier, Wood, Alonso, 1-2-3.
I don’t think Alonso should have been ranked #1 last year.
The list is good. The experience issue isn’t that bothersome to me. I mean, they are “prospects.” The Reds drafted them on potential, I don’t see why a list about potential should be read any differently.
What does the souting report say about Frazier that makes him number 1 overall when he is not listed as having the best Tools anywhere in particular.
@jason1972: Maybe he’s the fastest guy after Willy. Dusty likes him some speed.
He is just a ballplayer…that’s what I’ve heard over and over…Not a tools guy, but a baseball guy. He’s a guy who is good at almost everything but not great, but he really doesn’t have too many glaring weaknesses, besides not being able to stick at short…
Who would he compare to then?
I don’t know how accurate this comparison is, but since the Reds switched him over to 2B, I can’t help but picture him as the next Jeff Kent… which would be outstanding!
@Alan Horn: Absolutely, I’d have him there as well. He’ll equal if not surpass his production by 2011. Makes the Rolen acquisition all the more ridiculous.
I’d compare him to Mark DeRosa, actually. A lot of the same basic talents.
[...] Lack over at Redleg Nation breaks down Baseball America’s Top 10 Reds Prospects [...]
Hello guys, I love the site, but I never really post. As someone who doesn’t follow the Reds as close as you all, I haven’t heard of Theodis Bowe before. I’m curious what those of the Redleg Nation think of him. Anyone seen him play?
@Ben: Hey, Ben.
Here’s why you’ve never heard of Theodis Bowe before:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Theodis-Bowe.shtml
I’ve never laid eyes on the guy, and I’m no scout… but one glance at the stats tells me he looks like a poor man’s version of Willy Taveras… at the rookie league level…
He may be super-fast, but that alone doesn’t make you a good baseball player.
My 2 cents, for whatever it’s worth. He is only 19 years old…
@Dan: I don’t know, he kind of just looks like a kid to me. That OBP is pretty nice and he’s 18. I think that most of us have never heard of him says something, but you never know what a kid that young will turn into.
Jonathan Villar, Kelvin De Leon, and Reymond Fuentes are all considered to be be pretty good prospects and put up similar numbers to Bowe in the GCL. Mostly I was wondering if he has any tools besides speed.
mike leake is very close to major league ready. he’s been dominating guys who are mostly AA and AAA this whole fall in the AFL. i have absolutely no problem with his being ranked this high.
i agree that boxberger should only be on this list if he’s being considered as a future closer. he does not, in my opinion, have the makeup of a starter.
Haven’t seen Bowe — and now that the Reds are gone from Florida, I guess I won’t.
Just couldn’t pass up a perfectly good opportunity to whine about Arizona.
All I’ve heard about Bowe is speed — of course, if the rest is at least average, a lot of it can be developed as he moves through A and AA.
Once again, we as fans look at the potential in these guys — and we hope that, say, 6 or 8 of them will play up to their potential with the big club in the same season someday..
@broadwaydave: What makes you say that Boxberger does not have the makeup of a starter?
@brublejr:
Frazier is a toolsy guy. He isn’t a 5 tool guy, but his power and hitability both rate out above average. His other tools are average, but play up some because of what you mention with him just being a ‘ballplayer’.
To add to the Boxberger as a starter/reliever conversation…. the issue seems to be his stamina. He throws 90-95 early, but tends to wear down and throw 88-90 later in the games. That is where his main issues come from.
Doug – Where would you grade Stewart and Roenicke in this group?
I think #1 for Frazier is too high. I think the Mark DeRoasa comparison on Frazier is a good one. I see him being used much like Freel or DeRosa – a little in left, a little at second, a little at third. He’ll play four days a week or so, but he doesn’t have a natural position. I don’t think he’ll provide any more offense than BP at second, and why move a GG defender?
The general problem I see with our top prospects is that there isn’t a great prospect up the middle. Each guy is on the outside. Additionally, each guy is blocked by a guy in his prime, entering his prime, or, in the case of third base, blocked by the ownership’s man crush.
1B – Votto (26), Alonso (22)
2B – Phillips (28), Frazier (23)
3B – Rolen (34), Francisco (22), Frazier (23), Soto (20)
LF – Frazier (23), Heisey (24), Francisco (22), Rodriguez (17)
There just aren’t enough places to play these guys.
@David: I really think Frazier will be much better than a 4-days-a-week player. I think he’s going to be a legit everyday player (don’t know where yet) who will hit for a pretty good average, lots of doubles, and 20-25 HR.
That’s one of those nice problems to have.
I disagree about Frazier. I think he’ll be an everyday player, and when he’s on an opening day roster, it will be at a specific position. I don’t think he’s being groomed as a super-utility guy. I think the Reds like his bat, and are getting him experience at multiple positions in the minors to allow flexibility at the major league level. For example, when he moved to 3B, the Reds didn’t have Rolen yet.
In the upper minors, you have two shortstop prospects in Valaika and Cozart. Both should be in AAA this year, and Cozart’s defense is supposed to be pretty good, so we’ll likely see Valaika slide over to another position. I would have said 2nd base, but I don’t know what the intention with Frazier is.
Cozart will play SS, Alonso will play 1B. They need to assign 2B, 3B, and LF among Valaika, Frazier, and Francisco (or have one on the ML roster or trade one or keep someone in AA.)
Again, those are nice problems to have.
Seems unlikely that all of Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Valaika and Cozart will succeed at the ML level, but even if only half of them earn a spot on the 25-man, you’d end up with two or three cost-controlled big leaguers. Not too shabby, especially when you’ve already got Votto and Bruce.
I agree. By July we should have clearer picture barring injuries.
Doug, what do you think will be the future role of Juan Francisco: a)LF, b)3B, c)Utility or d)Trade chip. In my opinion, there’s no sense to move him to LF having an all-OF positions-player like Heisey coming up and in order to take over 3B he’d have to wait until 2012, at least. Furthermore, Frazier is more likely to pursue an IF position sooner than him. So, any thoughts?
Does anyone know what happened to Cozart in the AFL? is he injured. I haven’t heard anything and was curious.
@GregD: I agree it’s a good problem to have. However, you can’t play all these guys at the big league level. Even if Francisco marinates at AAA until 2011 when Rolen’s contract expires, the team trades Phillips to make room for Frazier, and Heisey slots in at LF, Alonso is still not playing. The guy’s only 22. Would Alonso stay in AAA until Votto is 29 and the team moves on? I believe his contract would prohibit that, no?
He’s injured and pulled out of the rest of the AFL season. Doug reported that it was a bone spur in the hand, but I haven’t heard that it will affect his readiness to play in spring training.
@David: Some will make a clear case for being promoted to the major league level, some will bust (or play their way into a bench/backup role), get injured, or get traded.
Like the Barry Larkin vs. Kurt Stillwell dilemna of the 1980′s, if multiple players make the strong case to being major-leauge ready, we hope the front office makes the right decision again!
I don’t see the problem with rating guys who don’t have pro-ball experience. You rate a players potential. Leake dominated college. With his stuff, make-up, and barring injury, this guy will be very good. Do doubt he has more potential than Wood or Maloney.
@David: Look, I understand everyone’s admiration of Heisey, but he is likely not an integral part to the Reds’ future. You have to ask yourself one question: Which LF/1st-base combination is most likely to make the Reds the most competitive? Is it Heisey/Votto, or is it Votto/Alonso? I go with the latter, and I think it is the most wise decision. Heisey could be a great 4th outfielder, but I think it’s time we start thinking about Votto in LF. Votto’s not really a very good first baseman defensively, anyways.
Of course, like GregD points out, not all of these guys’ performance is going to translate at the big league level. This is exactly the reason why our depth in AAA bodes well for building the core of this team over the next couple of seasons. If anything is a problem, it’s the fact that we don’t have enough high-ceiling depth at key positions in AA/AAA. We could use a top-tier prospect at catcher, shortstop, and starting pitcher to help round out the field.
Heisey is really struggling lately in AFL and been strike out a ton. I feel that he would be a very streaky hitter with an .240- .250 avg in the majors.
I would have had Stewart at #2 behind Alonso and ahead of Frazier at #3. Roenicke wouldn’t have made the list.
I don’t see the Reds trading him. I think he will be the Reds left fielder or third baseman for a while. They love his power and his plate discipline is showing signs (to the eye at least, although he does have 13 walks in his last 118 PA – on pace for 65 over a full season) of coming around some. Heisey is a guy who doesn’t seem to do anything good enough to hold back Francisco is things are going well for him.
If the decision was as easy as that one should have been, then it will be difficult to screw it up. Scouts liked both guys a lot. One guy was actually doing something on the field while one guy was hitting like Willy Taveras (slight exageration). The Reds wound up keeping the guy who showed he could perform on both sides of the ball.
The arguments for and against Heisey may have merits on either side but the one thing that Heisey is more than anything else is a true competitor and a winner. You can bank on Heisey playing in the Major Leagues and hopefully the Reds will give him the chance to do it with them.
Theo Bowe is from a very small town in Delaware where no one throws 90 mph. Just give him a chance, they compare him to pierre… and he’s a great kid