Loading ...Yes, we were all a bit disappointed in Jay Bruce’s first full season with the Reds. It wasn’t bad, by any stretch of the imagination, and I’m still excited about his future…but I think we all hoped for a bit more.
Want a reason to be excited about Bruce’s potential for a big season in 2010? Well, you’ve come to the right place. First, Mark Sheldon reports on Bill James’ projections from The Bill James Handbook 2010. Several are interesting:
–Joey Votto: .311, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 947 OPS. (Ummm…I’d take that line in a heartbeat.)
–Todd Frazier: .278, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 807 OPS. (If I were convinced that Frazier could put up those numbers, I would trade Brandon Phillips or move him to SS immediately. That’s better than the 756 OPS projected for BP, although you have to consider BP’s amazing defense in that analysis.)
–Jay Bruce: .274, 38 HR, 95 RBI, 877 OPS.
I’m about to get too optimistic about this team’s chances in 2010. Someone reign me in; I should know better. That’s an outstanding line for Bruce, who is still younger than almost everyone in the majors. Think about that for a moment.
Recently, FanGraphs demonstrated some love for Bruce, as well. I’ve been meaning to post this, because it’s very interesting:
In all, 2009 would appear to be a lost year for the highly-touted right fielder. However, Bruce actually made a good deal of progress at the plate. Here are several reasons to believe in The Boss heading into 2010:
They listed several reasons; I’ll list those here, but you can go over to FanGraphs for their in-depth explanation on each bullet point.
–Age and minor league track record
–Improved plate discipline
–Improved contact rate
–Increased power production
–Poor luck
Their conclusion:
Jay Bruce has all the ingredients to be a superstar. In a “disappointing” year, he showed top-shelf power, improved strike-zone discipline and better contact ability. Fantasy owners aren’t going to get another chance to acquire The Boss with anything less than a premium draft pick. If at all possible, nab Bruce now, before he becomes a perennial first-rounder.
Forget the fantasy analysis, as far as I’m concerned. (I am playing fantasy football for the first time this year, and I’m not sure how fantasy baseball owners find the time to keep up with a team every day.) There are signs that Bruce is going to be the stud we all expected in 2010.
Keep those fingers crossed….
UPDATE: Steve reminds us of this Hardball Times article from the other day that I should’ve mentioned here. Read the entire piece (it’s pretty in-depth), but here’s the conclusion:
While at first glance, Jay Bruce’s 2009 season seems like a step back in his development, he actually made a number of significant improvements that will progress his career. He improved quite significantly in his strike zone judgment and selectivity, while also improving his fly ball tendencies. While wrist issues are always problematic for a hitter, he seems to have put these concerns to rest with a strong September. For 2010, expect a very different Jay Bruce, one who finally lives up to his No. 1 prospect billing. A .275-.285 average with 30 home runs doesn’t seem out of the question. If he is able to maintain his plate discipline gains, he could post an OPS in the .900s as well, with the high .900s a possibility and 1.000—while a reach—not out of the question. After such a poor 2009, he should go significantly lower than where his true value lies, so don’t be afraid to draft him earlier than his big board listing. For next year, watch his contact rate and O-swing percentage, as well as his line drive rate—as they go, so do Bruce. In the end, he looks to be a very good outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues, with an outside chance at stardom. Especially if you’re in a keeper league, don’t miss out on his 2010 season.
Nice.
This article at Hardball Times was linked a few days ago, also showing great love for Jay Bruce’s future.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/player-profile-jay-bruce/
Let’s not forget his plus defense, which saved a lot of runs last season. On the downside, lefties ate him alive to the point where I was asking myself in July why we weren’t platooning him or demoting him. There won’t be any immediate improvement in that department I’m afraid. That usually comes with experience.
The home run predictions are fair methinks, but the rbi totals are always a crapshoot. My take is that like most youngsters he’ll rake against mediocre pitching but struggle against quality hurlers. To that, Votto has already arrived.
Well, if you really want to be reigned in… James’ projections are typically the most optimistic of all the systems, especially when it comes to prospects like Frazier. I do think he underrates Votto’s playing time (only 137 games). If he’s healthy, I don’t see why he wouldn’t play more than that.
I hope Votto’s doing better this offseason than last. That’s a very real concern, but I think it will help him tremendously next season to have an older hitter like Rolen to lean on. I thought it was irresponsible for Jocketty to ask Votto and Bruce to shoulder so much of last season’s offensive burden, and both struggled (although Votto’s struggles were related more to off-field stuff, which the team absolutely knows more about than the general public does).
I’m not quite as optimistic about Votto and Bruce as Bill James, but even if they come up short of those numbers they should have great seasons. I see Frazier more a middle-class man’s Adam Rosales at this point, but that’s okay. You need a guy like that, especially to keep Rolen fresh. If Dickerson or Stubbs can sustain what they’ve shown flashes of doing, this offense has a chance to be pretty darn good. Wish we could have seen enough of Balentien to know whether we needed Gomes at arbitration prices.
I’ve also heard that Bill James’s projections tend to be wildly optimistic, especially about young players.
I wonder if he’s got any testable track record at this? Seems easy enough to test, if his prior year projections are still out there.
I can’t see PECOTA, for example, projecting Frazier for anything close to James’s projection there.
Not to be a downer, but I also think we need to be careful about what we expect out of Votto from here on out. A classic rose-colored-glasses way to do a projection (as fans) is to expect all the guys who had a good year (like Votto) to stay just as good, and to expect all the guys who had bad years (like Bruce) to improve.
I’m totally on board w/ Bruce improving. I think you can make a perfectly good case for that.
But realistically, I don’t see anything in Votto’s stat line in the minors that says he should really be a .322/.414/.567 type of guy.
Votto’s overall minor league averages are .289/.386/.477.
Maybe he’s actually improved some, so maybe he splits the difference, but if I’m a betting man, I don’t see a lot more .322/.414/.567 in Votto’s future. We may have just seen his career year.
The Dan Projection System [TM] projects Votto at .290/.380/.520 going forward.
Mark it down.
Seriously, I love Votto, and I do still think he’s our best hitter. I just wanted to point out the trap of foreseeing only improvement when we look to the future. I think Votto is a very very good first baseman… but I don’t think he’s Pujols-esque (as he was this year).
Love,
Mr. Doom and Gloom
Unrelated to the topic at hand, but I can’t help noticing all the hot stove talk about teams looking for a center fielder. We have two (no, not you Willy). Does anyone else feel Dickerson would be a good sell high candidate? Aside from the defense, Heisey would likely provide the same production—his minor league #s would suggest MORE. The way management talks about Stubbs, it would seem Dickerson is the odd man out. And from what we saw of him in left field, I’d take my chances with Balentein, Francisco, and Gomes.
Agreed, I only see Votto surpassing 2009 in 2 areas—games played and rbi’s. 115 rbi’s wouldn’t suprise me a bit.
@Sultan of Swaff: That’s true… as long as the guys ahead of him are getting on base!
@Sultan of Swaff: Do you think Dickerson’s value is really that high?
If I were a fan of another team, I think I’d have my eye on him as a “buy low” possibility, since he’s blocked by Stubbs now.
At any rate… I really really like him – he gets on base, plays great defense, and recycles! – but I see your point. I’d like to keep him as a very good 4th outfielder, but it probably also makes sense to test the market and see what kind of trade value he’d have.
I’m afraid the Reds underappreciate him and they’re going to sell low on him for something minor like a so-so relief pitcher, which we already have plenty of anyway.
40-man roster outfielders: Taveras, Stubbs, Dickerson, Nix, Gomes, Bruce, Balentien, and, if you want to move him off 3B, Francisco.
That’s 7, or 8 counting Francisco.
Heisey and Dorn have to be added or would be exposed to the Rule V draft.
The problem with this list is that they’ll only retain 5 guys for the major league roster and all 8 players listed as currently on the 40-man roster saw time in the majors last year. Only Francisco would likely be optioned to AAA (to work on defense at the new position.)
That still leaves two cuts to make. If Dickerson has value outside the organization, I would definitely pursue that. Otherwise you’re looking at the obvious Taveras DFA & releasing Nix or Balentien.
If they keep Taveras and Dickerson, you’d have to
- option Stubbs and cut Nix or Balentien or
- keep Stubbs on the 25-man and cut both Nix & Balentien.
I’d say cut Taveras and Nix, personally. We’ve got to rid ourselves of OBP’s that bad.
I think Votto can live up to the projections. Shoot, was ‘09 not supposed to be his sophomore slump? And he dominated on a mediocre team even after going through some very intense off the field issues. I’m all for Votto flavored Kook-Aid.
I agree in principal with cutting Nix. To me, we don’t need him and Belentien. Almost the same guy. However, how are either of those two most likely to be used? Ideally, off the bench, and in that case, you might argue that Nix is the better power bat in the late innings. Granted Nix has played twice as many big league games as Balentien, but they have almost identical career OBP’s in the high at .277 (Nix) and .281 (Balentien). Nix at least had an Slg over .400 for the year.
I see that Balentien has a .345 OBP in the minors, and a .526 SlG. That’s nice if you think he can get there again, but this teame can’t afford too many “if this player get’s it together” plans. Nix in the Minors was .346, .481. Same guy. I say flip a coin, or take which ever one costs less.
@Matt WI: KOOL-Aid. Is that a freudian slip or what?
I am predicting a .560 – 102 – 212 line for Bruce next season. I also project that he will save 2.3 children from a burning building during the season.
Damn… that’s a pretty good year…
If Taveras was the only player on the 40-man roster, I’d cut him.
I hate to be the “downer” guy here, but my take on some of the information from the Hardball Times is a little different
I wrote this the other day on that thread:
“As for the Bruce story….I just ordered the new Hardball Times book the other day, so I support their efforts. I think Bruce will improve next year, too, but I think the Hardball Times went way too high in this next level of improvement. I think they misinterpreted some info.
I’m a stats guy, but I also think scouting is important. The Hardball Times says that Bruce earned pitcher’s respect for they only gave him 45.7% of pitches in the strike zone. In the games I saw, the pitchers threw off the plate because Bruce would chase after it. It’s true they didn’t give him anything to hit…they didn’t have to and any good pitcher will let a bad hitter get himself out. There was no reason to challenge him.
They also give him a HUGE pass for his low batting average on balls in play (BABIP). It was only .222, which was extremely low, and they use his .298 BABIP average from 2008 as evidence that 2009 was an anomaly. However, they cite that Bruce’s flyball rate rose substantially in 2009 (good for a power hitter), but his line drive rate was a casualty…falling to only 13.0%. I’m not convinced the fly ball rate increase was a postive…it sounds to me like he was swinging for the fences on pitches he couldn’t hit, instead of trying to get on base by hitting line drives and using good plate discipline.
I’ll be real happy if he hits .250 with 35 homers next year. I’ll be ecstatic if his OBP can approach .350.”
Jay Bruce did show a bit of improvement on taking those inside pitches the other way in his little September stint. I don’t think with his current batting stance he can live on just being a pure pull hitter.
I don’t know how you can say Votto has reached his peak or will not continue to be a .300 hitter. His average vs. lefties and righties is nearly identical and his disclipne at the plate is great. To have all of his personal issue off of his back for the most part will help his concentration. It kills me how people want to talk about trading away Votto to bring up Yonder thats crazy talk.
Bruce did talk in September about being a hitter, going to all fields, rather than a slugger trying to pull everything. I hope he seriously pursues this approach. BA and OBP would rise without a decline in HRs.
I don’t understand the James projection on Frazier. He’s projecting that Frazier gets that many ABs ? Playing what position(s) ?
I see that James has Harang, Arroyo, and Cueto all a game under .500. What about Homer ?
@Jeff: i’m with you jeff. i am incredulous that anyone would want to trade away votto just to make room for a minor leaguer who hasn’t proven yet he can hit AAA pitching, much less major league stuff. as for votto, i firmly believe that he has MVP-type talent. and judging from comments around the league this season, i don’t think i’m alone in that assessment. if and when alonso becomes major-league ready (and i don’t think he’s that far off) then we can deal with the 1B problem. trading votto right now would be nuts. after rolen, he’s the heart and soul of a team that could very well find itself in contention next fall.
There’s a post by one of the off-brand guys at MLBTradeRumors.com, which links to a Fanhouse post suggesting that the Reds will “cut payroll from $71MM in 2009 to between the $65-$70MM range next season.”
The usual suspects are mentioned as trade candidates, but Votto’s name is also mentioned “an intriguing trade chip.” I can’t access the original post, so I don’t know if Votto is mentioned by the Fanhouse guys or Tim Dierkes’s lackey, but whoever suggested that deserves credit for one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read on the Internet.
Why trade a young, cost-controlled player who’s already great and beloved by fans when you’re trying to cut payroll, compete and sell tickets all at the same time?
I’m not sure why mlbtraderumors linked to an insider espn article instead of the original on mlb.fanhouse’s website.
The Fanhouse article mentions that they will have a decision to make at first, but doesn’t suggest trading Votto. Mlbtradrumors is the one speculating that the Reds would have to include Votto in a deal seeking to move a large salary.
I believe I started the “should the Reds move Votto” comments here yesterday. I would NOT trade Votto this offseason.
My comments were in the context that if Alonso pushes the issue this July or next offseason, then I think it may not be a slam dunk decision as to who you keep and who you trade.
I watched, literally, 90% of Bruce’s at bats last year, live or on TV. I completely agree. In September, for whatever reason, his pitch recognition seemed a lot higher. He would lay off of breaking stuff and/or take it the other way.
He was lunging, badly, and completely clueless pre-injury last year. Only a mistake could be hit. The injury may have been a blessing. You could tell he was really struggling mentally. The best thing to happen to the Reds last year was Bruce’s Sept, because he looked totally different.
I think we’d be wise to keep media expectations low. I think that stuff gets to him. Dusty would be wise to hit him 7th, tell him to play a good RF, and not worry about offensive numbers — just have good at bats.
if jocketty trades votto this off-season i will lose all heart and renounce the cincinnati reds forever.
if you’re looking to trim payroll, you don’t trade a budding All-Star and MVP to whom you only owe a little bit over major league minimum. i mean c’mon for crying out loud. by all means, trade phillips, trade cordero, trade harang, trade arroyo, hell, trade’em all four in the same deal if you want…but the one thing you do not do right now is trade joey votto for anything (except pujols).
To me, Cordero is the one to shop (assuming he has decent value to other teams out there). In my opinion, $12 million for a 65-inning pitcher is insanity… especially when the grand total of what you can afford to spend is around $70 million!
Cordero has been great… but paying that kind of money for him with our payroll is madness.
Really, I don’t mind exploring the market on anybody. If Phillips is going to be dealt, now’s the time. His trade value right now is MUCH higher than it will be next year at this time. Currently he has 2 years left on his deal and his salary this year is $7 million. Next year at this time, he’ll have one year on his deal at $11 million. (Really 1 year at $12 million if you factor in his $1 million option.)
Next year I would think he’s borderline untradable. Currently, he’s still OK value.
Very good player, but you do need to factor in the upcoming ballooning contract.
@broadwaydave: Re: Votto… his value is sky-high right now for all the reasons you name. I would not take trading him lightly… but if his value is THAT high, isn’t it worth exploring?
Also, as good as he is, three things…
–In my opinion, he’s not likely to be as good as he was last year. He’s very very good, but he FAR exceeded his minor league numbers last year. I’d expect a slight regression going forward. Nothing terrible — just more like .290/.380/.520 rather than .320/.410/.570. We might have just seen his career year. His contract is rock-bottom. You do have to consider whether it’s worth it to “sell high” sometimes, painful as the idea may be.
–First base is the easiest position to fill. Good SS’s are scarce. Good C’s are scarce. Good 1B’s are just not that scarce.
–If you’re going to trade either Alonso or Votto (I’m not saying that’s necessary, as Votto probably can play a perfectly fine LF), who has more trade value now? Votto’s value is sky-high. Alonso is still a question mark.
I’m not totally advocating dealing Votto. He’s great, and seems like a good guy too. But I AM saying that having the cajones to consider “selling high” on someone who just put up MVP-like numbers is something you need to do sometimes. It could be genius.
And I’m saying all this as a huge Reds fan and a huge Votto fan.
Every reason that this sounds like madness to most of you is the same reason that some other team might pay an arm and a leg and another leg to get him.
Something to think about anyway…
I’ll go put on my firesuit now and prepare to get flamed…
OK, I’m going to add one more thing here that is partially arguing against myself…
There may be a “face of the franchise” type exception that you have to make for certain guys. If trading Votto would be THAT unpopular, maybe you really can’t do it.
I guess the stuff I was saying above ignored the emotional fan base stuff. I was just thinking of making a good baseball value trade. (I’ll stand by what I said based purely on value.)
Perhaps I am now exposing that I have been a fantasy baseball GM but never an ACTUAL baseball GM.
I understand what you’re saying Dan. You could trade Votto as a shrewd baseball move, but why and to what end?
In my book, even thinking of trading Votto is high treason. Even though the Reds have to manipulate the sell high/buy low market at their salary level, you still have to maintain a core of a few guys that are still under decent cost control right? I mean, what’s the point of selling high on your best players, especially when it’s motivated by salary dumping… seems to me that you wouldn’t be trading for another All-Star whose salary you can’t afford. I think you only trade away someone like Votto if you think you are nowhere near contention… a la the Pirates.
Otherwise, then you’re stuck with a bunch of young guys who have “awesome minor league numbers” and we “really think they could be great in a few years after they learn how to walk/hit lefties/thow strikes more consistently” Lather, rinse, repeat the whole process. No thank you.
@Matt WI: I hear you, Matt. Good point.
If we were to consider it, you’re right — you wouldn’t do it just to get good but expensive players.
You’d do it only if you could get very good, young, cheap players who could FILL OUR BIGGEST NEEDS — shortstop, catcher, and/or possibly for a potential ace starting pitcher.
Otherwise, you’re right, probably not worth considering.
Yeah — plus women need to have a reason to want to come to GABP, and Votto provides that better than anyone else on the roster at the moment, I’d guess…
(speaking of “emotional fan-base stuff”)