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	<title>Comments on: Minor League Profiles of Adam Dunn and Jay Bruce</title>
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	<link>http://redlegnation.com/2009/11/05/minor-league-profiles-of-adam-dunn-and-jay-bruce/</link>
	<description>A Cincinnati Reds Blog &#124; Dishing out hot, creamy bowls of bloggy goodness</description>
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		<title>By: Steve Price</title>
		<link>http://redlegnation.com/2009/11/05/minor-league-profiles-of-adam-dunn-and-jay-bruce/#comment-1895876</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Price</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:53:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://redlegnation.com/?p=10205#comment-1895876</guid>
		<description>Both of these stories were very interesting reads....

I&#039;ve said this on the website before...it doesn&#039;t do any good to be an outstanding player in Cincinnati...when the team doesn&#039;t win, the star player is blamed...Dunn (and Griffey) were the targets of misguided anger which should have been directed at team ownership.

Dunn was known to have an outstanding work ethic coming through the minors, a tribute to his football upbringing.  The Nationals now say he has an outstanding work ethic and was more willing to play 1b.  As the Reds went downhill, and management decided they couldn&#039;t afford to pay Dunn, the rumors were he didn&#039;t work hard and wouldn&#039;t play 1b, which seems contrary to the bookends of the story.  Why wouldn&#039;t the Reds have had that &quot;difficult&quot; conversation with their young star if it had been true?  Or, may be management chose not to get involved.  For me, I think I would be all over a multi-million dollar investment...and, I so long for the days when management would put their players in a positive light...it would make fans SOOOO much happier.

Dunn has said he could have worked harder while with Reds and many gravitated to that statement, not to mention that Dunn isn&#039;t quite as svelte as he used to be.  All that may be true, but how many sluggers stay skinny that long anyway?

As for the Bruce story....I just ordered the new Hardball Times book the other day, so I support their efforts.  I think Bruce will improve next year, too, but I think the Hardball Times went way too high in this next level of improvement.  I think they misinterpreted some info.

I&#039;m a stats guy, but I also think scouting is important.  The Hardball Times says that Bruce earned pitcher&#039;s respect for they only gave him 45.7% of pitches in the strike zone.  In the games I saw, the pitchers threw off the plate because Bruce would chase after it.  It&#039;s true they didn&#039;t give him anything to hit...they didn&#039;t have to and any good pitcher will let a bad hitter get himself out.  There was no reason to challenge him.  

They also give him a HUGE pass for his low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  It was only .222, which was extremely low, and they use his .298 BABIP average from 2008 as evidence that 2009 was an anomaly.  However, they cite that Bruce&#039;s flyball rate rose substantially in 2009 (good for a power hitter), but his line drive rate was a casualty...falling to only 13.0%.  I&#039;m not convinced the fly ball rate increase was a postive...it sounds to me like he was swinging for the fences on pitches he couldn&#039;t hit, instead of trying to get on base by hitting line drives and using good plate discipline.

I&#039;ll be real happy if he hits .250 with 35 homers next year.  I&#039;ll be ecstatic if his OBP can approach .350.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Both of these stories were very interesting reads&#8230;.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve said this on the website before&#8230;it doesn&#8217;t do any good to be an outstanding player in Cincinnati&#8230;when the team doesn&#8217;t win, the star player is blamed&#8230;Dunn (and Griffey) were the targets of misguided anger which should have been directed at team ownership.</p>
<p>Dunn was known to have an outstanding work ethic coming through the minors, a tribute to his football upbringing.  The Nationals now say he has an outstanding work ethic and was more willing to play 1b.  As the Reds went downhill, and management decided they couldn&#8217;t afford to pay Dunn, the rumors were he didn&#8217;t work hard and wouldn&#8217;t play 1b, which seems contrary to the bookends of the story.  Why wouldn&#8217;t the Reds have had that &#8220;difficult&#8221; conversation with their young star if it had been true?  Or, may be management chose not to get involved.  For me, I think I would be all over a multi-million dollar investment&#8230;and, I so long for the days when management would put their players in a positive light&#8230;it would make fans SOOOO much happier.</p>
<p>Dunn has said he could have worked harder while with Reds and many gravitated to that statement, not to mention that Dunn isn&#8217;t quite as svelte as he used to be.  All that may be true, but how many sluggers stay skinny that long anyway?</p>
<p>As for the Bruce story&#8230;.I just ordered the new Hardball Times book the other day, so I support their efforts.  I think Bruce will improve next year, too, but I think the Hardball Times went way too high in this next level of improvement.  I think they misinterpreted some info.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a stats guy, but I also think scouting is important.  The Hardball Times says that Bruce earned pitcher&#8217;s respect for they only gave him 45.7% of pitches in the strike zone.  In the games I saw, the pitchers threw off the plate because Bruce would chase after it.  It&#8217;s true they didn&#8217;t give him anything to hit&#8230;they didn&#8217;t have to and any good pitcher will let a bad hitter get himself out.  There was no reason to challenge him.  </p>
<p>They also give him a HUGE pass for his low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  It was only .222, which was extremely low, and they use his .298 BABIP average from 2008 as evidence that 2009 was an anomaly.  However, they cite that Bruce&#8217;s flyball rate rose substantially in 2009 (good for a power hitter), but his line drive rate was a casualty&#8230;falling to only 13.0%.  I&#8217;m not convinced the fly ball rate increase was a postive&#8230;it sounds to me like he was swinging for the fences on pitches he couldn&#8217;t hit, instead of trying to get on base by hitting line drives and using good plate discipline.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll be real happy if he hits .250 with 35 homers next year.  I&#8217;ll be ecstatic if his OBP can approach .350.</p>
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		<title>By: shane</title>
		<link>http://redlegnation.com/2009/11/05/minor-league-profiles-of-adam-dunn-and-jay-bruce/#comment-1895654</link>
		<dc:creator>shane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:41:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://redlegnation.com/?p=10205#comment-1895654</guid>
		<description>no, patties.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>no, patties.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Greg Dafler</title>
		<link>http://redlegnation.com/2009/11/05/minor-league-profiles-of-adam-dunn-and-jay-bruce/#comment-1895647</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg Dafler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:27:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://redlegnation.com/?p=10205#comment-1895647</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;comment-1895642&quot;&gt;

&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-1895642&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;shane&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;: and then he got lazy and stopped
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

link?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote cite="comment-1895642">
<p><strong><a href="#comment-1895642" rel="nofollow">shane</a></strong>: and then he got lazy and stopped
</p></blockquote>
<p>link?</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: shane</title>
		<link>http://redlegnation.com/2009/11/05/minor-league-profiles-of-adam-dunn-and-jay-bruce/#comment-1895642</link>
		<dc:creator>shane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:59:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://redlegnation.com/?p=10205#comment-1895642</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;comment-1895623&quot;&gt;

&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-1895623&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Greg Dafler &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;: and commentary from coaches about how hard he worked as a player within the Reds minor league organization. 
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
and then he got lazy and stopped</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote cite="comment-1895623">
<p><strong><a href="#comment-1895623" rel="nofollow">Greg Dafler </a></strong>: and commentary from coaches about how hard he worked as a player within the Reds minor league organization.
</p></blockquote>
<p>and then he got lazy and stopped</p>
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		<title>By: broadwaydave</title>
		<link>http://redlegnation.com/2009/11/05/minor-league-profiles-of-adam-dunn-and-jay-bruce/#comment-1895623</link>
		<dc:creator>broadwaydave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:26:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://redlegnation.com/?p=10205#comment-1895623</guid>
		<description>i think that if jay bruce gets anywhere close to those kind of numbers, then it&#039;s going to be a very, very good year in cincinnati.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i think that if jay bruce gets anywhere close to those kind of numbers, then it&#8217;s going to be a very, very good year in cincinnati.</p>
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