Loading ...Back in August, we looked at and discussed the potential 2010 Reds outfield. We will soon get to see how the Reds’ plans unfold for next year’s team. As we wait for November moves to begin, let’s look at other areas of the Reds club.
How would you structure the 2010 rotation? It would seem to be one of the easier areas on the ballclub to address:
- You have the potential for four solid starters in Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey
- There should be someone internally who can fill the 5th spot: Owings, Lehr, or Maloney
- Kip Wells is gone as a free agent
- Wood and Lecure are on the 40-man roster, but start the year in AAA; Wood is a good spring away from pushing the #5 spot
- Ramirez was moved to the bullpen this year and may not stick on the 40-man
- Thompson is frequently injured and I would also move him to the bullpen to see if he can be a late inning reliever
There’s been some talk of payroll relief, and rumors of trading Arroyo or Harang in the final guaranteed year of their respective contracts. If they truly want to compete in 2010, I think they have to keep the four they have and either bring in a potential high reward guy like Rich Harden or take a look at the recently released Noah Lowry.
What else could or should the Reds do with their rotation next year?
I’ll comment on the Reds’ rotation later. Right now a WS comment. I had a feeling that removing Victorino in the 8th would bite the Phillies in the butt.
When Jeter came up, I felt oddly relaxed and happy to see him. Had a feeling that “Mr. Overrated in the Clutch” would ground into a double play.
I’d keep all four solid starters. I like Owings in relief. Lehr is AAA depth. So if we’re going internal for the 5th starter, I’d go with Maloney, but on a short string – he has more to prove.
I’d really like to see what Wood can do – I agree he’s a good spring away from pushing the #5 spot. Lecure isn’t ready. Ramirez has pitched pretty well in the majors but I haven’t studied the 40 man roster situation enough to say we should keep him.
Thompson hasn’t shown that he can make the 25 man roster as a reliever.
I’ve always liked Noah Lowry. What happened with his law suit against the Giants ?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4179864
Just imagine is Volquez hadn’t gotten hurt. Then you could line up a rotation of something like: Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey. Wouldn’t that have to be one of the best rotations in the league, especially Bailey keeps doing what he did at the end of last year?
That’s right, it’s November 2009 and I’m already playing the “what if” game for 2010. I think being a Reds fan has broken me in some important way.
Harden is certainly an interesting case – and is projected as a Type B, so they wouldn’t lose any draft picks – but I suspect one of the big-market clubs will be able to afford a riskier investment (i.e., more $$) in him. The same applies to Bedard.
Looking ahead by another year, I can’t shake the feeling that Ashland native Brandon Webb will be suiting up for the Reds in 2011.
i go with harang, cueto, arroyo, bailey and maloney to start. but don’t rule out micah. i have a feeling that reuniting with bryan price is going to do him a lot of good mechanically. i think he serves the team better as a sp anyway. if maloney needs more seasoning then send him to aaa and slide owings in there. i would keep ramirez on the 40 man. he’s got a lot of upside as a long man.
i would stay away from harden; too injury prone. don’t know enough about lowry. i say we go with what we got and if we’re in it at the end of july, then we can maybe add something then. or maybe volquez comes back throwing bullets. i am optimistic about our pitching.
Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey and Lehr. Maloney is not suited for GABP (flyball pitcher). Keep Owings in the bullpen. Wood not ready yet. Then replace Lehr with Volquez and proceed for 2011 with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Wood and Leake.
Honesty the 5th spot can go many ways. I see Lehr as a great guy, but only a guy for AAA depth. After his first couple of starts this year the league caught up. Ramirez and Lecure are not ready to go up, may never be as a starter. Thompson is injured all the time, so I don’t factor him in at all. Wood is the wild card because it sure would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation. I think Wood will be much better than Maloney, I am not sure he will be ready this spring. But who knows, Cueto jumped up quick so it can be done. My guess is that after being banished to the bullpen at the end of the year, Owings comes to camp focused and will win the 5th spot, with Wood and Maloney falling just short.
Also, from everything that I had seen, Volquez could potentially be back around August 1. So if anything the team can get a boost then with his return.
I have a great idea to make the Reds better AND save payroll!
Trade Scott Rolen to Toronto for Encarnacion, Roenicke, and Zack Stewart. This will save millions, which you can use to justify keeping Arroyo and Harang, then put Stewart in as the 5th starter and, if he falters, use Owings.
Brilliant. But will the Blue Jays go for what seems to be a lopsided trade?
For this team to contend, we’re gonna have to see slightly better than league average from Harang and Cueto. I’m sure a well rested Cueto will, I’m not so sure about Harang. I fully expect Homer to be lights out 3 out of every 4 starts.
5th starter–I wouldn’t get rid of Kip Wells if he is willing to accept a minor league deal w/ an invite to spring training. Stuff-wise, his is the best of any of the candidates. Like Owings though, neither throws enough strikes. For that reason, I’d let those two battle for the long man job. Then the 5th starter comes down to Lehr, Maloney, and Wood. The Lehr we saw isn’t the guy we’ll see next season if he’s well rested. He throws a lot of strikes and let’s the defense do their job. He’s a known commodity. It won’t help or hurt Maloney and Wood to spend a few months in AAA until the trade deadline when either or both can slide into the rotation w/ the expected deadline deals moving Harang and Arroyo—I’m assuming we’ll be out of it by then.*sniff*
Bailey, Arroyo, Harang, Cueto, Owings 5-man rotation
Use Wood as the long man out of the bullpen. If someone in the rotation gets injured or struggles, insert Wood.
Trade Alonso and Wood to the Rays for one of their young pitchers and either Brignac or Zobrist.
Lets say Sonnanstine is the SP. He slots in as the 5th guy for the Reds, under control for a few more years, and no great pressure for him to succeed. Rays swap out a pitcher they don’t need for one that could help them more in 2 years when they will most likely need that depth.
Rays need a replacement for Pena at 1B after next year and Alonso fits that bill.
Reds get Brignac to man SS and, while I like him, Mr. Janish meet the bench. If its Zobrist they shift BP to SS and let Zobrist play 2B.
Now, I don’t actually think this will happen…just a thought on something that might help round out the rotation while also address another area of need (SS) and eliminate the problem of what to do with Alonso when he’s ready.
First of all, I’d offer a nice minor league deal (with appropriate incentives for if he performs well) to Chris Capuano. He’s 30 and coming off arm surgery, which should make him cheap, but he’s been effective in the past.
In other words, I see “buy low opportunity” in Chris Capuano.
So anyway, the top 4 is obviously (in some order) Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey.
I’d let Maloney, Owings, and Capuano battle it out equally for 5th starter/6th starter/long man status.
If they’re effective, we’ll need ALL of them. Mark my words. I’m not advocating a 6-man or 7-man rotation, but basically pitchers get hurt, and there is just no such thing as making it through a whole season with 5 starting pitchers.
In 2009, for example, the Reds had NINE guys start at least 7 games.
There’s just no such thing as too much starting pitching depth. You’ll need them. And while they don’t need to be world-beaters, they do need to keep you in the game.
By the way, I’d also ask the Braves about Kenshin Kawakami. I see “buy low” on him too.
He’s signed for 2 more years at $6.67M per year.
He was perfectly good this year for Atlanta (156 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, less than 1 HR per 9 IP), but he’s probably their 6th best starter now that Hudson is healthy again.
I don’t know what it would take to get him, but I know that Atlanta needs offense, particularly at 1B and OF, so I feel like there ought to be a match here.
I wonder if we could even get them to take Willy off our hands (in addition to someone who’s actually pretty good) to help the salaries balance out…
Anyway… it’s got to be a priority to have ridiculous depth at starting pitching. You cannot have enough.
WS comment: If it goes to game 7, do you start Cole Hamels?
My comment re: Wood is a good spring away. I did not mean to say that he was a good Spring Training away. I think he is a good Mar-May away from being the first callup should the Reds need a starter in May-Jun.
I really only talked about guys on the 40-man roster, but Redleg Nation Spotlight Player Matt Klinker would also be a AAA option next season, and could push his way onto the major league roster with a strong start to the season.
We also don’t know how fast Leake or Boxburger will be pushed through the system.
Harden would be a very high risk. The intriguing thing about him is how good his 25 starts can be. The appropriate approach would probably be the lower cost risks. We’ll see what kind of deal he can land because I think my offer would be incentive laden with a 2nd year option.
The links in the original story above to Harden and Lowry are to longer, recent stories & rumors about these pitchers at mlbtraderumors.com.
I thought that I heard the Lowry lawsuit was resolved, but I don’t remember the details. I’ll have to see if I can find the follow-up story.
For a Phillips/Escobar-based trade to work for the Braves, I’ve wondered if any salary would need to come back the Reds way. Kawakami is an interesting candidate. On the surface, I see a flyball pitcher with a WHIP on the high side.
If Volquez comes back from injury this season, I’d use him as a late season add to the bullpen.
@Dan: I would only buy very, very low for Capuano. Decent numbers, especially in terms of IP, but a mid to high ERA and WHIP. Arroy-ish, not that it’s a terrible thing, but we’ll be getting Volquez back, so I’m content to use internal resources.
Besides, the Brewers need all the arms they can muster, so if he’s any kind of good, I’d be asking for something of value in return or plop him right back into the rotation.
owings was more or less awful as a starter, and i see very little upside in his stuff. i like him as a long reliever though. this year proved that a long reliever is important (janish pitched twice!) and a long man that can also be your first bat off the bench is pretty valuable.
i do think the reds need to bring in a starter. the reds won games when they pitched well, as much as i want to give credit to stubbs and rolen.
what i would like them to do is spend a little extra now with the understanding that a lot of money is coming off the books next year and that this year’s free agent class for starters is deep. Free agents with ERA+ over 100:
Erik Bedard: 153
Jarrod Washburn: 137
Joel Pineiro: 133
Kevin Millwood: 129
Jason Marquis: 127
Randy Wolf: 122
Doug Davis: 121
John Lackey: 114
Rich Harden: 109
Jon Garland: 103
at a minimum, i think they should look for this year’s calr pavano. we had 37 starts from guys with ERAs in the 5.30s this year, and we have to get that way down next year if we’re going to compete with our offense.
if we have to go with someone internal, maloney and ramirez have shown the most promise, and with what he’s done in the afl, i’d give leake an invite to camp and see if he can just steal the job like cueto did a few years back.
Mlbtraderumors.com new post today on the Braves offseason says they’re looking to extend Hudson, to shop Lowe or Vazquez, and look for “a first baseman, a closer and, possibly, an outfielder”
I like your list Al. The name on your list that I wouldn’t touch is Joel Piniero. He appears to be a classic case where someone will overpay for his 2009 performance, and he won’t ever repeat that again.
They also had a recent summary on Jarod Washburn. In short, he put up bad numbers after being traded to the Tigers, which he is blaming a knee injury that he had surgically repaired. He’ll be ready by opening day, and his performance for the season likely dropped him from being either a Type A or Type B free agent.
A lot of good ideas. Some bold and interesting (plausible) trade ideas, but they won’t happen because they’re bold.
Within our system, I didn’t put Owings and Lehr in the starting rotation, but agree with a number of you that they can be better than they pitched last year. Owings pitched well until he hurt his shoulder again. Lehr was piching tired at the end of the season, after pitching a lot in the winter.
A big question is how much our new pitching coach can help. Can he help Owings stay healthy, with for example some tuning of his delivery ? Above all can he help the young guys progress ?
Does anyone have any information on Travis Buck?…wasn’t he supposed to have decent stuff and be a competitor (bull dog type) when he came over from AZ? I know he was injured and had surgery, but I haven’t heard anything about him since. Can he be added to the possibilities?
Sorry everyone…Dallas Buck
I am kinda unclear why the need to go out and trade/buy pitching? Was pitching our problem issue last year? If we are going to trade/buy a player wouldn’t it be better to go after hitting?
@Drew Nelson: I see your point here. Could mean it’s a fear the Reds won’t get the the offense they need, so they have to over-compensate with pitching. While I’m a huge fan of stockpiling pitching, I’d say that’s a luxury we need to address after we figure out SS and LF. If, and only if we’re going to say the offensive output is going to be the same as last year, then I’ll invest in outsourcing some pitching.
@Drew Nelson: when it comes to problems with the reds, it’s not an either or situation.
here’s an interesting way to look at it, it’s reds ops, opponents ops, and games over .500 for by month:
4/09: 686, 724, +1
5/09: 784, 744, +2
6/09: 649, 753, -4
7/09: 667, 861, -8
8/09: 683, 739, -3
9/09: 776, 676, +9
in june the hitting went way down and that was the main problem, but in july the pitching got lit up, and that was the main problem. the offense actually got a little better from june to july. the reds dropped their opponents ops nearly 200 points from july to september.
if i could take my pick, i’d say a strong hitting shortstop is probably the reds biggest need, but how many of those are available this year?
the pitching is an issue, and their are pitchers available, so it seems like a reasonable thing to think go for.
The Reds will not be adding salary this season, not even for a minimal amount of money. I think their solutions will all be via trade or internal.
I do think we will see Alonso traded, however.
I would love Vazquez, he and Cordero have about the same salary, except I think Vazquez has 1 yr and Coco has 2 yrs remaining…just saying. Lowe is untradable with that contract.
There really isn’t too many guys on the FA list I would go after. I believe the price would be too high. I would look at Lowery or Capuano as a buy low, hoping they revert to their old ways. I would hate to invest too much into starting pitching when Volquez would be back in August and the offense being the biggest problem.
I guess I look at it this way, we won’t be able to bring in a pitcher that will be “that” much better then what we already have but we might be able to bring in a bat for LF that would be an upgrade.
@Drew Nelson: jonny gomes hit 29 hrs over 461 plate appearances between aaa and the reds. he was among the team leaders in ops, his splits aren’t bad at all, he’s relatively young, and was a clubhouse leader.
who is the left fielder that will be “that” much better than that?
I also think there is little to no chance that Edinson will provide any production next year. If the Reds were smart they would allow him all next season to rehab and then have him ready to go for the 2011 season when we won’t have Harrang or Bronson.
I don’t believe Johnny will be back next year, with his numbers this year and no promise of more playing time, I think Johnny will go to another team, plus I wonder if he could match those numbers again next year.
@Drew Nelson: jonny isn’t a free agent, so he doesn’t have a choice if he wants to come back or not. all the reds have to do is offer him arbitration and he’s playing for them next year.
john fay reported that he thinks the reds will offer him arbitration because he will be relatively cheap for the numbers he put up. whether he can do it again is a good question, but most young players have that question mark attached.
again, i ask, who out there would be “that” much better, and wouldn’t have any question marks about performance. he’s not exactly a one hit wonder either. career .800 ops, average of 27 hr for a 162 game season, entering his prime.
@Drew Nelson: again, to me, if you want to talk about a serious upgrade on offense, it has to be either shortstop or catcher.
an .800 ops out of our shortstop would be a huge lift to this team. scutaro gives you a high obp, which we desperately need, but it looks like the jays are going to re-sign him.
to me the area where there are the most available options for significant improvement is in the rotation.
If the Phillies go down this World Series; Will they be itching to add some payroll for another run in 2010-2011? IMO, the Phillies should spend big over the next two years. Those World Series rings will keep fans buying season tickets for the next decade or two, even if they fall to Cincy’s level of ineptness as early as 2012.
So……Why not offer them Harang, Cordero, Gomes, and couple of lesser pitching prospects (Horst, Ravin, Pearl, etc.) for a couple of their top pitching prospects; Carrasco and Drabek? The Phillies sure could use Cordero to replace Lidge, they could use Gomes off the bench or in platoon with Ibanez, and they need another righty starter, especially one that Charlie Manuel ‘loves’.
The Reds finally realize that they are rebuilding while freeing-up a lot of payroll (~$25mil a year). The Reds can slot Carrasco into the rotation immediately, to go along with Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney/Owings. The trade allows Masset to take over the closer’s role, and gives us a working competition for LF between Heisey/Dickerson/Frazier/Francisco. The Phillies solidify their obvious weaknesses for another couple runs before the team starts crumbling to free-agency.
@wanderinredsfan: An interesting idea, Cordero would have a lot of value for the Phils.
After the Phils lose the WS, their fans are going to run Lidge out of town, the same way they did with Mitch Williams after the ‘93 Series.
And I think they’d take a chance on Harang. He showed signs before the appendicitis that he can still pitch and he would benefit greatly from the Phils offense and defense.
The Phillies wouldn’t part with Drabek for Halladay.
I agree on the good hitting shortstop thing. Give me the rotation we have with the guys to fight it out for the 5th spot, a good hitting SS, and I think we are in pretty decent shape, especially if Voltron can come back by Aug 1.
He could come back like Hudson did this year. But I would only consider that if the Reds are still in contention.
I agree Drew, I’m not sure management brings him back, especially with what Heisey is doing in winter ball.
@Travis G.:
That’s not a true statement. The Jays wanted Drabek and two other top-ten Phillies’ prospects for Halladay, initially. A straight up Drabek for Halladay was never considered by the Jays. I’m sure the Phils would have jumped at that opportunity.
Does it really matter? I mean we spent 75 mil this year on payroll and next year we might not break 70. While the Yankees spend over 200 mil. Baseball has gotten out of whack…as much as I love the Reds without a true salary cap and profit sharing every year we will be trying to figure out a starting 5 and our starting 9 instead of already having it figured out from the year prior or free agency.
Wanderin, as much as I’d like those prospects, they aren’t coming. The Phils traded for Lee and didn’t have to give them up, they sure as hell aren’t going to give them up for Harang.
I’d still love to send a package involving Alonso to the Braves for Escobar. I’ll let you all speculate on the details, but that’s the piece the Reds desperately need (RH bat, #2 hitter, SS heading into arbitration as our high priced pitchers near FA).
Stubbs CF
Escobar SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Rolen 3B
Gomes LF
Hanigan C
P
That lineup, and I’ll be damned if we wouldn’t be an offensive force. I’d gladly include a combo of Maloney, Heisey, Dickerson, Valaika, or Cozart to make it happen. And regardless of what Mr. Redlegs of Fay’s blog will tell you, a move to pickup a player of Escobar’s caliber would prompt an attendence boost that would be worth his while. Cashhhhhtellini NEEDS to signal that he’s willing to boost our lineup, and every fan that actually made it to a game last year (all 8 of us) realizes the Votto/Alonso 1B hangup. Turn that into a MLB ready player, and with an older Votto/Bruce/Stubbs/Cueto/Bailey, we’re in bidness.
Sure it would be great to have Escobar. But the asking price would be so high, I’d have to see it before commenting.
I agree that a defensive SS who can also hit should be the top off-season priority.
Isn’t Escobar a head case?
Why focus on bringing in a pitcher instead of a LFer? I think the upgrade in the #5 spot in the rotation pitching is one of the best areas that the Reds could address that would have the most impact on the teams results. Owings and Lehr combined for 30 starts last year, and their combined ERA was a little above 5.35.
The Reds should offer Gomes arbitration and bring him back next year. Even if he splits some time with Dickerson or someone else, I think that his production is not that much off from what is out there in the LF market. And you’re going to have to pay a lot for that left fielder.
I plan to put up a post about the infield this week, but since we are on the topic, I would agree with those saying that a serious upgrade at SS would have the biggest impact on this team, but I don’t think there are many viable options. Escobar received a mid-season label of being a clubhouse cancer, which led to some rumors that he may have been available last season. I haven’t heard anything yet in the offseason that says the Braves are shopping him. I don’t think they are convinced that their kid at AAA is a major league SS.
I think the upgrade at catcher can be relatively inexpensive, especially if Shoppach is actually available, as rumored, or if the Reds signed someone like Gregg Zaun to a 1-yr deal.
Pinson, I agree with you completely, and I’d add that it needs to be a YOUNG defensive SS who can hit at the top of the order.
This Scutaro talk from Heyman has me freaked out. No way we need a player like that playing SS (the left side of our IF is already a bit over the baseball hill…).
Hasn’t JJ Hardy fallen out of favor with the Brewers? Maybe he could be gotten for a song. I don’t like Scutaro…we’d be buying high on a career year for a 30 something SS.
As for a salary cap; I don’t think I’m in favor of one. Baseball has had as much parity as any professional league over the last 10 years. The NFL has a salary cap and the same teams are still always good. The Patriots are playing by the same rules and guidelines as the Lions…both can spend the same money. Why are the Patriots better? They are smarter.
Salary caps won’t make the Reds smarter in the front office and teams like the Red Sox who have embraced the “new” metrics (the Red Sox have Bill James on their payroll, for example) are still going to be better than a Dusty Baker led team because they “did it that way when he played with Hank Aaron”.
The better run teams are still going to be the best teams and unless Reds management begins being more effective in their analysis of players and roster construction they will forever mired in mediocrity, salary cap or not.
Any lineup that requires Brandon Phillips to be a clean up hitter is a below average offense.
This lineup does not have a power hitter; Bruce has real potential for that, but he needs more plate discipline to make that work. Like this comment or not, to this date, we’ve traded lack of run production and better defense (Bruce) for run production and no defense (Dunn) in the outfield. Bruce played well the last week of the season, but I sure wish he had more AAA time to work on plate discipline…
I’m not convinced either that Stubbs is a long term solution as a leadoff guy…his 2009 numbers remind me a lot of Dickerson’s 2008…I was glad to see the power at the end of the season, but I still think he’s demonstrated fourth outfielder skills in the minors.
Gomes could be a power hitter, but he may be more like Dunn but without the walks…which may limit him, too.
I’m seeing a lot of spare (or replacement) parts, without the original engine that can use the spare parts… and spare parts don’t usually make for a winner…
Oh….yes…
We do need a YOUNG shortstop…most may not realize this, but Janish is not young either…Janish enters peak offensive value at this time of his career. What we saw this year will be near his peak offensively. I love his defense and I like him on the bench, but he can’t be an anchor. With a team of hitters we could carry him, but we don’t have a team of hitters…
If we could somehow get control of a good young shorstop to develop, Kelly Johnson of the Braves would probably be a low-leveraged trade right now…have him play 2b and move Phillips to shortstop for a couple of years, with Janish filling in for defense….however…that would require a young shortstop who could be ready in two years.
I loved Scutaro a few years ago…just as I did Frank Catalanotto, but that time has passed. Scutaro had his “veteran comeback peak season”…it’s not likely to reoccur..
That’s not quite what I meant. My understanding is that the Phillies moved on to Cliff Lee due to the Jays’ insistence that Drabek be included. The other players involved included some of the same guys they traded to Cleveland, based on media reports of the talks.
But my point is, if Philly would not part with Drabek in a package for arguably the best pitcher in baseball, they aren’t going to give him up (with another top prospect, at that!) for an expensive (but very good) closer, an expensive and possibly declining mid-rotation guy, a part-time, arb-eligible DH, and a couple of no-name prospects.
I could see them having some interest in Cordero or Harang, but not for either Carrasco or Drabek. Probably not even for Michael Taylor, whom I love and is blocked in their system.
Steve, I agree with you on the Phillips front. I was trying to give the closest thing to an adequate lineup while incorporating the tendencies of our current manager (i.e. SS in the 2 spot, and LH/RH alternation).
Ideally, I think I’d rather have Votto/Bruce/Phillips/Rolen as the center of our lineup, but God forbid we not break up the lefties and righties.
Spare parts? Yeah, I can agree with that to an extent I guess. I think there’d be some flexibility with it as well if Dickerson and Francisco make the 25 man this year, so that you’ve got LH pop (Juan) and RH pop (Gomes) to go along with LH speed/defense (Dickerson) and RH speed/defense (Stubbs).
With steroids leaking out of MLB, homers have significantly dropped, and I just don’t think there are many 40hr guys (or 30hr guys for that matter). I’d rather try to find a lineup of 7 guys w/ 20hr power than finagle a trade to find 1 with 40hr stuff. Hence the priority I place on SS rather than permanent LF.
zack cozart has put up a .950 ops in the arizona fall league thus far and will be joining heisey and alonso in the afl “all-star” game.
he was a second round pick in ‘07, he’s 23, hasn’t played in aaa yet, and has minor league offensive numbers pretty comparable to janish so far.
still, he’s got more offensive upside for sure, and it may be worth brining him to camp to see if he can apply some pressure to janish. janish has a .580 ops in the big leagues, so it’s just not that hard to get a major improvement at shortstop.
Steve, what are your qualifications as someone who is a “power hitter”?
Ready for the craziness?
If you are going to have a package of Alonso + for a shortstop, it isn’t going to be for Escobar. Throw everything in the world at the Marlins for HanRam (7 mil). Be it a package of Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, and Maloney, do it. A HanRam/Phillips DP combo would be fun as hell to watch. Hanley’s got the bat we need in front of Votto. He’s a star and would instantly spike attendance and make the team better.
Here’s where it fits into the thread… To make this happen, you have to shed payroll. Try dumping Harang (12.75 mil) or Arroyo (11 mil). Arroyo has value, and until a freak health situation, Harang’s expected value was in line with his contract. My preference would be to deal Harang. Give up nothing, and make it a straight salary dump. If you choke on 5 mil, it’s a wash with Hanley’s salary.
CF – Stubbs/Dickerson
SS – Ramirez
1B – Votto
2B – Phillips
3B – Rolen
RF – Bruce
LF – Gomes/Heisey
C – Hanigan
P – Arroyo
The rotation would be Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey and your choice between Owings, Lehr, Wood, etc. If you can unload all of Harang’s salary, there will be room to add a mid-level starter a la Jon Garland, Washburn, etc.
Starters:
1)Harang
2)Arroyo
3)Cueto
4)Bailey
5)Maloney (w/ Woods & Klinker waiting in AAA as next up.)
W/ Volquez out, the Reds need AH/BA…At least until the ASB. I expect both to be shopped & moved during the non-waiver period.
Pen:
CL Cordero – will not get moved until after 2010.
LHP Rhodes – solid #’s & reasonable contract.
RHP Massett
LHP Herrera
RHP Fisher
RHP Burton – trade filler, just waiting to happen…
RHP Lincoln – if he’s not on the DL…Ondrusek if he is.
LR Owings – IMO, He’s best as a PH / LR.
(Plenty of depth left in the system.)
I have been and continue to be on the Hardy bandwagon. If I were in charge, the lineup next year would be:
CF-Stubbs/Dickerson
3B-Rolen
1B-Votto
RF-Bruce
SS-Hardy
LF-Gomes et al
2B-Phillips
C-Hanigan
But then, no one cares what I think.
Hanley Ramirez is possibly the most untouchable player in MLB, with the possible exception of Evan Longoria. He’s great, he’s young, he’s signed to a team-friendly deal and is the face of a franchise that already struggles to keep fans (and has a new ballpark opening in 2012). He is not available for any price.
I do like the idea of acquiring Hardy, but the market will likely be competitive. The Angels have a surplus of SS, but they’re all pre-arb and would likely require someone who could help the ML team right away. Otherwise there’s no sense in trading them. That leaves the Reds to pick over the Jack Wilsons and Bobby Crosbys of the world.
@JasonL: I was on-board w/ JJ Hardy also, back when I thought he could be a “buy low” option (bad year, now blocked by Escobar), but now I don’t think so. For whatever reason, it seems like the market for him is still hoppin’, so I think he’s going to command a pretty high price… even though his 2009 stats suggest that he shouldn’t.
I was all for JJ Hardy, as well…But would a deal for him REALLY be worth it???
MIL will want young MLB ready arms…multiple arms…and would want more in return from CIN, due to them being in the Central.
I do not want to see anymore arms get traded away…Not Now!
So, with that in mind…And after looking at what the REDS have in the pipeline…I’d rather just hang tight & go w/ Janish…While waiting on Cozart.
IMO, He’s the real answer to the SS question.
He plays abv avg D & has a productive bat (w/ a bit of pop). He’ll likely start out in AAA, but could be ready for a call-up by JUN if Janish continues to struggle at the plate. And he’d not cost ANYTHING over the time & a league min salary.
the reds can only get better by dumping payroll and excess baggage…start by shopping Cordero 3 positions stick out in my mind that need to be upgraded…SS/ Catcher/ left field..the shortstop issue can be addressed by moving BP to short and trading for Dan Uggla to play second, and the Marlins would be much more inclined to trade him then Ramirez…thats 2 birds with one stone..sadly enough the catcher situation could be solved by just about any backup on any MLB team as theirs is better then our regular…or stand pat and leave Hannigan for his defense since we would be adding Uggla…this would be my 2010 lineup if I was in control
Stubbs CF
Rolen 3B
Uggla 2b
Votto 1b
Phillips ss
Bruce Rf
Gomes Lf
Hannigan C
Harrag SP
Arroyo SP
Cueto SP
Bailey SP
Wood, Lehr Etc…
Exactly what is wrong with Paul Janish? When did being a strong defensive player become a bad trait?
I’d be satisfied with Janish as our everyday shortstop as long as the manager doesn’t bat him second.
Come on, Drew. You know that defense is not the issue with Janish.
First of all, no player is untouchable. It could be so expensive that it is prohibitive to most teams, but… No player is untouchable at the right package. Your saying I offer Fielder, Braun and Yo for Longoria and they don’t take it?
HanRam is far more easily dealt than you would believe. You have to remember the deals made by this team in recent past. Miguel Cabrera was untouchable too. Hanley signed a 70 million dollar deal. The terms of which are 2009: $5.5 million, 2010: $7 million, 2011: $11 million, 2012: $15 million, 2013: $15.5 million, 2014: $16 million. The Marlins aren’t going to be able to afford Hanley past 2012. The team is trying to re-sign Josh Johnson. That’s a TON of money for the Marlins locked up in two players.
He will be dealt.
Is it Janish’s fault the manager is an idiot and bats him second? If he bats 8th what is the problem? I believe having a great fielding SS outweights his lack of hitting. I believe he can save this team more runs by being in there next season then he will cost the team with his bat if our manager wakes up and bats him 8th.
@Drew Nelson: If Janish is our everyday shortstop, even if he bats 8th, he could come to the plate over 600 times. I agree with you that fielding is important, but even if he wins a Gold Glove next year, if he bats 600 times and puts up .220/.290/.320 or something like that, he’s hurting the team.
If he can bat .250 with a reasonable number of walks and some doubles power, plus his good defense, I’ll be fine with him.
But offense still matters, absolutely.
That’s probably optimistic, but plausible.
In other Reds infield-related news, Bill James has high expectations for Todd Frazier next season:
Todd Frazier, 2B/3B, 5.51, 278/336/471
Frazier probably has value as a Chone Figgins-y utility player. He hit .290/.350/.481 as a Mudcat in the Double-A Southern League, and his brief time at Triple-A resulted in similar numbers (.302/.362/.476 in 69 PA).
I guess when it comes to the position of SS, and the lack of good/great hitting short stops in the major leagues today, I am more then happy with the defense Paul brings and believe there are others in the starting lineup who can carry the load on the offensive side. I would rather have a great fielding SS who is a poor hitter over a good/great hitting SS who can’t field a lick.
@Drew Nelson: I hope you’re right about the rest of the offense, but I don’t think I agree. In 2009, we were 15th (out of 16 NL teams) in batting average, 14th in OBP, 12th in SLG, 11th in runs scored.
We should be better in 2010 (no Taveras and no Gonzalez… I hope!… likely a better season from Bruce… but likely a worse season from Votto), but not tons better. I think we’re still probably a below-average offensive team.
We can go a long way just be getting rid of the terrible black holes in the lineup. I’m afraid Janish might be another Taveras/Gonzalez-esque black hole.
Isn’t saying that someone isn’t untouchable, but then saying you would only move him in a deal that no other GM would do, make that player untouchable?
The point is, everyone has a price. I exagerated to emphasize the point. Acquiring Ramirez would be expensive, but I don’t think it would be prohibitive. A package of Alonso, Francisco, and Frazier, et al. for Hanley is a strong package. Considering the collective age/experience of our core players, the cost wouldn’t be prohibitive.
Bruce (22)
Votto (26)
Hanley (25)
Volquez (26)
Cueto (23)
Bailey (23)
We should be able to keep this group together until our younger prospects such as Soto, Rodriguez and Hamilton, et al. are ready.
Bottom line is Hanley will be dealt within the next two years. It’s the MO of the Marlins. The Reds might as well offer that package now, and have a playoff window of about three years.