Loading ...I’m back!
What, you didn’t notice that I was gone? My feelings are hurt.
I’ve been in South Carolina on a big golf trip. The weather was great, the golf was great, and — even better — the wireless internet was screwed up so I didn’t even turn on my laptop. I haven’t paid a bit of attention to the Reds for a few days.
Yes, great trip.
Anyway, what did I miss? What do you wanna talk about on this final off-day of the 2009 baseball season?
1. Welcome Back Chad. (slacker,
)
2. How well did you golf?
3. You need better minions to take over while you are gone.
4. Big Juan, The Cisco kid, swinging a potent bat right now.
Who Dey! (I couldn’t resist)
You said you were in SC, does that mean golf heaven Myrtle Beach SC and if so which courses did you play?
Great Pinch Hit AB by young Jaun Francisco vs Valverde yesterday in the 9th inning. He fouled off 4 or 5 tough pitches before drawing a leadoff walk .. Of course Nix followed that with a easy double play ground out to end the threat .. Yes I know “Don’t take the bat out of his Hands ” , “play for the win on the road and a tie at home” etc .. etc… But anyway .. Young Mr Francisco has been impressive .. He may not be able to play third, but he can swing the bat from the left side ..and what power! .. especially at GABP They will have to find a spot for him. Right ? How about Left field ? No Joey will have to move there when Alonzo comes up .. Right ? Anyway Its a nice problem for Mr. Jockerty to handle .. Let’s see .. where will Todd Frazier end up . I’m in hot stove mode now
It sure would have been to see them start to address some of those questions the second half of the season. Their lacksadasical half hearted effort at finding the right positions for their prospects and lining up their depth chart this season reminded all too well of the effort the front office put into improving the club the last two offseasons. For the second year in a row, we are right where we figured we’d be when we started the season, under .500 and near the cellar. Can we expect more of the same this offseason? I’m going to have to say yes until they prove to me otherwise. I’m starting to feel the same apathy towards the Reds front office/ownership that I was feeling ten years ago about the Bengals when I pretty much gave up following football. It sure would be nice to see them start turning it around this offseason. I guess we’ll see.
Near the cellar? I’ve got my eyes on passing the Brewers this week for 3rd place.
I sure hope management doesn’t go overboard trying to lock up Gomes long term. A one year deal will do nicely, thanks. You have a potential logjam out there by July of next year. If Alonso tears it up, you may have to move Votto, which would squeeze out Francisco and Gomes. Nice problems to have, but you ABSOLUTELY have to find out what you have with both Votto and Francisco during spring training.
At worst, Francisco makes a better option than Nix.
I love Gomes, but maybe there isn’t room for him?
Bruce
Stubbs
Dickerson
Heisey
Balentien
That could actually be a darn good — and very cheap — outfield. Is it worth signing Gomes for whatever he’d be worth in arbitration (maybe $2 million-ish?) and then blocking one of these guys?
It’s occurred to me, by the way, that out of all the players who stand a chance of making the 2010 Reds next year, probably the 2 best “prototypical” #2 hitters are Dickerson and Heisey. (Nice OBP, a little speed, a little pop. Possibly Shane Victorino-like on a good day?)
The trouble is, CF is taken now, and Dickerson and Heisey don’t really have the power you’d expect out of a corner outfielder.
So… what do we see happening in LF next year? What SHOULD happen?
It doesn’t seem to me that any of these guys need more time in AAA (except… maybe… Bruce???) And also, apparently Balentien is out of options. That’s not good.
It’s an interesting conundrum, the more I think about it.
I would say we don’t have a single stud outfielder right now (though I do hope that Jay Bruce changes my mind about that at some point). However, we have a whole lot of pretty good ones. It’s a very “flat” distribution. So… what do you do?
I would argue that, even though some of these guys are very different from some others, overall there’s not a huge difference in value among any of these guys:
Stubbs
Bruce
Dickerson
Heisey
Balentien
Gomes
Nix
They’re all pretty good (in different ways)… and none are GREAT.
I’d eliminate Nix off the top, personally, but I find it to be a pretty tough call among the others.
Obviously, Willy Taveras is not on this list, and really needs to be gone. I actually think it COULD happen now. I didn’t think it before his quad injury, but now he seems to be in Dusty’s doghouse (not b/c he stinks, but b/c he apparently didn’t work very hard at rehabbing).
Taveras’s lazy rehabbing may have been the biggest favor he’s ever done for the Reds.
My prototypical #2 hitter has two things–good bat control (making contact, going the other way), and sees a lot of pitches. This allows for straight steals and hit and runs.
Barry Larking was the best I ever saw at hitting thru the hole on the right side. Rolen has that same skill set.
Barry Larkin was good at it, too.
Excuse me, but yes I did notice you were gone — can’t reference my post this morning at the bottom of “Stubbs/Votto…” (there was no place else to comment about yesterday’s game) but I did refer to your absence.
Tom’s comment about the “lackadaisical, half-hearted effort” to simply get the best out of the players they had, say, mid-season is right on.
I’m not on the Balentien wagon. I don’t think he should be stopping anyone else.
Forgot to add…I’d rather have Gomes.
@Steve Price: Why not, Steve? Have we really seen enough to be able to tell one way or the other? He’s batting .275/.368/.422 for the Reds in 122 PA’s.
If the choices are Balentien for the minimum or Gomes for $2 million… that’s a tough call.
1. I’m a HUGE slacker.
2. Golfed pretty well, considering I haven’t been able to play much this year. Best of all, on #17 on the last day, I stuck one 2.5 feet from the hole on a 189-yard par 3. A birdie like that makes me feel better about all the bad shots I hit.
3. I love my minions.
I’m referring to Balentien here, obviously.
Dey not the Stillers, evidently.
If Carson Palmer can stay healthy (a huge IF), the Bengals defense may be good enough to make this a pretty doggone good team. I like that defense.
That said, if Polamalu had been healthy, no way Cincy wins that game yesterday.
Nope, we went to Santee, SC. Nothing to do there except golf, and the weather was wonderful. Some decent courses, as well…though the courses, by and large, aren’t in the same league as some of the better ones in Myrtle Beach.
A group of local lawyers and judges go on two of these trips each year, Myrtle Beach in the spring and Santee in the fall. Since my kids are in little league softball/baseball in the spring, I don’t know when I’ll get back to Myrtle Beach. Lots of great golf there, though.
I knew I could count on you, RedinFla.
We clearly have a surplus in left field if you factor in Votto and Francisco. It’s certainly possible we resign all these guys and then package a couple in a trade. To that end, we could use them to shore up the catcher’s spot. I’m not sold on any of the backups, including Hernandez at a cut rate—an awful and careless defender. The other two cannot hit, period.
2010 LineUp based on current readiness:
CF Stubbs
LF Heisey
1b Votto
RF Bruce
2b Phillips
3b Rolen
C Hanigan
ss Janish
WOW–we really need a left fielder power bat in that lineup…
Bench: Miller, Barker, Sutton, Rosales, Gomes, Dickerson
may be:
Stubbs/Heisey CF
Rolen 3b
Votto 1b
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2b
Hanigan c
Janish ss
That’s probably better until we see more of Stubbs/Heisey
However…I’d like to see:
Stubbs/Heisey CF
Frazier 2b
Votto 1b
BIG SLUGGER LF
Bruce RF
Phillips ss
Rolen 3b
Hanigan C
Bench: Miller, Janish, Sutton, Dickerson, Gomes, (Stubbs/Heisey)
(Francisco needs much more AAA time…)
I think that lineup can win BIG time….
Pitching staff:
Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Wells/Lehr/Maloney (only one of those guys)
Bullpen: closer–Masset, others: Rhodes, Herrera, Owings, Burton, Ramirez
I’d keep Travis Wood in the minors; Del Rosario has a very low strikeout rate as does Ondrusek. I think Sam Lecure could be a possibility. Viola has not impressed me. Carlos Fisher is walking too many; he may still be a better choice than Ramirez. We’d have Owings for spot starting, too.
Beware the homeruns allowed by Lehr and Maloney. Lehr has allowed 13 in 59 innings; Maloney has allowed 9 in 40 innings. Kip Wells has actually pitched much better than I expected….
@Dan: Regarding the mix of OFs, I think Heisey will get caught in a numbers game and be sent to AAA, plus i think he could use half more seasoning at AAA, after his initial hot start in LVille, he cooled off and ended up at .278/323/465 at Lville. I think numbers also squeezes out Balentien as well. Unless the reds make a trade or release Willy, mix likely will be Bruce, Stubbs, Dickerson, Gomes, Willy, provided Reds do offer Gomer arbitration.
Too small a smaple size and not impressed with the defense. His overall OPS for the season is .691, not .755; his career OPS is .655. He’s hit 14 homers in 551 plate appearances. Yes, he’s only 24; Gomes is 28. Balentien should get better; Gomes should be peak for his batting type. Gomes could easily be a 30-35 homer guy the next three years–he’s hit 20 in 309 plate apperances this year, which is 1 in every 15 plate appearances–his career is 1 in 18 plate appearances.
The team needs mashers in the outfield…Balentien could develop, but we already have one whose contract won’t kill us, even if it’s a couple of million more than Balentien’s…
I’m not as knowledgeable as most of the Nation, and I have to admit my eyes glaze over a bit at prolonged discussions of player stats — but I love the game, love the Reds (darn it), and can’t help but notice the players who seem to love what they do and work hard to improve both personally and for the team.
Maybe that’s part of the reason Gomes has such an appeal –
Would you feel the same way if you knew Chad is really a Cubs fan? We have proof…..
We had one for several years, and then we traded him for a good-hitting pitcher.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
off day thread…..hmmmm….
.318/.410/.557
I wonder how many people realize just how good those #s are
I mentioned in another thread that Votto is only 1 of 9 Reds in their history to do the following
hit for a .300 or better average, have an OBP over .400 and hit 20 or more HR
Other than Votto this year the other players are
Mitchell (1994), Daniels (1987), Morgan (1976), Carbo & Perez (1970), Robinson (1961 & 1962) and Klu (1954)
the season isn’t over and I’m really hoping Votto has a great week but I think you could also argue that this season has already been one of the best seasons by a Reds 1B in their history.
RCAA YEAR RCAA
1 John Reilly 1884 72
2 Ted Kluszewski 1954 66
3 John Reilly 1888 60
4 Tony Perez 1973 55
T5 Ted Kluszewski 1955 51
T5 Frank Robinson 1960 51
7 Joey Votto 2009 46
T8 Ted Kluszewski 1953 44
T8 Frank Robinson 1959 44
10 John Reilly 1883 43
> 40 Runs Created Above Average is impressive….very impressive
Votto is only the 9th Reds to accomplish > 40 RCAA since the BRM
RCAA YEAR RCAA
1 Eric Davis 1987 56
2 Adam Dunn 2004 52
3 Kal Daniels 1987 50
T4 Reggie Sanders 1995 49
T4 Barry Larkin 1996 49
T6 Kevin Mitchell 1994 46
T6 Joey Votto 2009 46
8 Barry Larkin 1995 44
T9 Sean Casey 2004 40
T9 Eric Davis 1986 40
Absolutely not.
another random topic
How good has Janish been on defense?
there are only 2 SS in the NL who have been more valuable defensively than Janish even though Janish hasn’t played that much
and thinking about who the Reds MVP has been this year
Votto? Phillips? Harang? Cueto? Arroyo? Cordero?
Mike,
Who’s this John Reilly fellow? It looks to me like he’s posted two of the best three years in Reds 1b history, and three of the top ten?
funny steve
on a more serious note about Rielly I have two question related to him, one is just for fun.
1. do you happen to know why Rielly didn’t play in 1881 and 82?
2. I was looking over some pre-1900 Reds numbers. Was Rielly the 3rd best Reds hitter in the 1800s behind only McPhee and Charlie Jones? I didn’t really realize that Rielly was one of the biggest sluggers of the time. He led the league in HR twice and SLG twice. And a little trivia. He was one of the 1st 10 players in baseball history to have 100 RBI in a season. He was the 1st Red to have 100 RBI in a season
Hmmm… wonder where we’d be today if he’d played a full season. He seems to be one of those guys who makes the rest of the team play better (there I go again, dwelling on unmeasurables…).
while I don’t think he makes the rest of the team play better he does make the lineup score more and players tend to hit better with men on base and while Votto was out we got HORRIBLE production from 1B which means there were fewer men on base, so the #4-5 hitters came to the plate with fewer times with men on for a month or so. Rosales and Hernandez combined to have a sub-.700 OPS at 1B while Votto was out.
Don’t know how many wins that cost us but I’ll bet 2-3
right now you right but Bruce has nearly an unlimited ceiling. Bruce could end up a superstar….the rest will not
alas, a fan after my own heart
@mike: Wow, did we just have a Kal Daniels mention? Outstanding.
Yes! I’d love to see Janish getting a full season. Unless the Reds can acquire an above average bat at SS (which is doubtful), let’s see what Janish can do with a full season.
Stubbs/Heisey CF
Frazier 2b
Votto 1b
BIG SLUGGER LF
Bruce RF
Phillips ss
Rolen 3b
Hanigan C
Bench: Miller, Janish, Sutton, Dickerson, Gomes, (Stubbs/Heisey)
(Francisco needs much more AAA time…)
I think that lineup can win BIG time…. I’m going to ask Preach to light a few candles for this line-up. Given the potential logjam, I’d maybe consider trading Fransico right now… somebody somewhere called him a “Willy Mo Pena” on this board. If so, let’s trade him up for another Bronson Arroyo.
Shoot, as long as we can think out loud, what if we moved Votto to LF now. An outfield of Votto, Stubbs/Dickerson, and Bruce? That would be pretty awesome. Then, rather than spend on a free agent slugger, what if we insert Yonder in now and try and get some power on the cheap? Given the front office track record for talent evaluation of free agents and their contracts, at least this option keeps everything in-house.
ON question 1…I found that answer a few weeks ago…going from memory, I think it came as a result of the Cincinnati team being kicked out of the league for selling beer on Sundays and renting the field out to other teams…and Reilly wasn’t that good in his rookie year. He batted .206 as a 21 year old. He was “re-signed” when the Reds started with the American Association.
For question 2…I think Reilly was a better hitter than McPhee. King Kelly had a big year in 1879, as did Deacon White (also 1878). Cal McVEy was good in 1878. Hick Carpenter had a big year in 1882.
“I think that lineup can win BIG time…. I’m going to ask Preach to light a few candles for this line-up.”
Gotcha. That will be a nice change of pace for me: the only thing I wanted to light up concerning most of the lineups this year was a blow torch.
I think you’re right about McPhee vs Rielly
Rielly clearly hit better but it brings up the age old question which I always wrestle with. A good hitting defensive 2B vs a good hitting 1B? Rielly produce more at the plate than McPhee but McPhee produced more when compared to other 2B vs Rielly compared to other 1B.
This reminds me of seeing Sean Casey’s name pop up a few times in the last couple weeks when looking at Reds 1B numbers. Casey produce more than most Reds while he was here but he was only a slightly above average 1B
If Votto could play anywhere decent LF we could have an all-star LF
Votto value would go up.
Here are the 1B that have been close (or better) to Votto’s production
Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder, Dunn, Lee, Berkman, Howard, Teixeira, Cabrera and Youkilis.
Here are the LFers who have been close (or better) to Votto’s production
Manny, Braun and Bay
curiously enough those 3 LFers are very bad defensively
@preach: Thank you Preach.
And all for basically the league minimum in $$$!! THIS is why it’s so important to develop your own players from within (or to trade for them before they hit the majors). If you can get a couple who are very good, young, you get CRAZY good value out of them (huge production for tiny $$$).
Having guys like this is extra important for teams like us who are going to try to operate with a $75 million (or so) payroll.
This is why Tampa has been so good the last 2 years on a tiny payroll — all those high 1st round picks panned out around the same time, and they’re making peanuts.
that is funny and I wondered if you or anyone would notice exactly what I said
what I said could be taken as a contradiction
I said “I don’t think he makes the rest of the team play better”
then go on to point out by being on base more than the players that covered for him while he was out has a likelihood of making other players #s higher
I am sure of one thing
Votto hitting behind Taveras and Gonzo did NOT make either of them better
all this talk of Votto and I just saw this
Votto was named NL player of the week
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090928&content_id=7205308&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin&partnerId=rss_cin
I didn’t realize. He hit 10 doubles in one week!!!!! wow!
Amazing. I do wonder what kind of a year he/we would’ve had if he’d played a full season. As pitchers adjusted for him, he adjusted as well and is finishing strong.
I (as usual) was thinking more of attitude, work ethic, etc… and those are the kinds of things I think can elevate other guys’ play at times.
more amazing was thinking about Votto in relation to the entire Reds season
No Reds has won player of the month honors since Hamilton won rookie of the month in April of 2007 and Dunn won player of the month in July of 2005
No Red has won NL player of the month since Arroyo won it for the week of Aug. 25-Aug. 31 in 2008. Gonzo and Jr each won it in 2007
some more on Votto’s week/month
only 7 regular NL players have over 1.000 OPS for the month of September. Votto is one of them at 1.157. Only D Lee is ahead of him right now
one of the other 7 is Bruce but he has fewer plate appearances
just took at glace at September production from Reds hitters
1.157 Joey Votto
1.111 Juan Francisco
1.099 Drew Sutton
1.097 Jay Bruce
0.943 Wladimir Balentien
0.826 Brandon Phillips
0.799 Jonny Gomes
0.771 Drew Stubbs
0.760 Ryan Hanigan
0.742 Adam Rosales
0.738 Darnell McDonald
0.686 Scott Rolen
0.665 Craig Tatum
0.653 Kevin Barker
0.575 Paul Janish
0.556 Corky Miller
0.365 Laynce Nix
I wish Sutton had gotten more of a fair shake, not just as a utility guy, but give him a week or two as a starter! (He’s the one I’d try at 2B if we ever were to try Phillips at SS.)
I’m not ready to just declare Sutton a utility guy. He’s still fairly young, and he’s a switch-hitter, and he’s got some pop. He’ll take a walk too, so I think he has OBP potential.
Anyway… I just want to see him get a shot.
Balentien too.
agreed
what if the rest of the season we saw this?
Stubbs – CF
Sutton – 2B
Votto – LF
Bruce – RF
Francisco – 3B
Balentien – 1B
Phillips – SS
Hanigan – C
you know, the young players, trying them out every day…getting some players a taste of another position and maybe building a lineup where the 4 or 5th best hitters on the team are batting 4th and 5th? Do we really need to see more of the older players? Does it matter if Francisco boots a few and strikes out 30 times in the last week?
as ol Dusty would say, ya can’t play em all
The second step is then to trade the guys who aren’t dominating (and that means trading average players) to other teams just before their salaries skyrocket…and keeping a couple of stud players. You get more (lots) of prospects for the average players who have proven themselves…this way there’s lots of numbers of players to help the team through in finding real prospects to replenish the lineup and the system.