Loading ...John Fay had a very interesting conversation with Walt Jocketty; here’s the relevant portion:
Asked if Stubbs is the center fielder for 2010, Jocketty said:
“I think based on what we’ve seen,” Jocketty said, “we have to give him that opportunity. We’ll see how he finishes up this year and what happens over the winter. But he’s given us a strong indication that he might be able to do that. He’s had a long test.”
If that’s the case, Willy Taveras becomes a very expensive ($4 million) extra outfielder.
This shouldn’t be as difficult as it is going to be, I can tell you that.
My vote is for Corey Patterson
Darnell MacDonald. Duh.
If Jocketty want’s Stubbs he’s going to have to release Taveras and McDonald
@mike:
Why? One can be a back-up to complement the outfield of Bruce/Stubbs/Gomes/Dickerson. I’d rather have McDonald, but might as well keep Taveras if the contract is a sunk cost. Injuries will happen, and he could be usefull as a pinch-runner late in games. Balentien, Heisey, and Francisco/Frazier can start in the AAA outfield, honing their craft until we can dump Taveras off on somebody. Of course, if we don’t offer Gomes arbitration, then Balentien is likely his replacement.
The only problem with keeping Taveras is Dusty Baker; Can Walt reign in Dusty’s playing of Taveras over Stubbs or Dickerson?
Whoever is going to play CF will be the leadoff man because that is what Dusty does, so I looked at BB rates, K rates, Defense, Wins Above Replacement, and value ($). Dickerson was the most valuable this year, followed by Stubbs. Those two should battle for it and Taveras & McDonald need to be sent packing.
Dickerson – BB% 13.4, K% 25.7, UZR/150 35.5, WAR 1.8, Value $8.3
Stubbs – BB% 6.6, K% 28.9, UZR/150 19.4, WAR 0.8, Value $3.7
Taveras – BB% 4.4, K% 14.4, UZR/150 11, WAR -0.3, Value -$1.2
McDonald – BB% 5.3, K% 30, UZR/150 -14.5, WAR -0.2, Value 0.9
Dickerson has the best OB skills and defense. Stubbs has the best power with great defense.
Taveras has the best K rate, good defense, and terrible everything else.
McDonald is all around bad and not a CF.
I would like Stubbs to get his walk rate up to about 10% and his K rate down a little to around 20% for him to be really productive. I think once Stubbs becomes more assertive in the outfield his defense is outstanding.
For Taveras to have a walk rate of 4.4%, that is impressive in bad way. How can someone with virtually no slugging have a walk rate so low? For someone with his skill set his walk rate would have to be at least 15% to be productive.
And I agree with mike, Walt will have to Dusty-proof the roster (get rid of Taveras/McDonald).
The other interesting thing from that article is bringing back Hernandez. The option has to declined, but what would you bring him back for? I would try for a ONE YEAR contract about 2 mil. If he wants more than that, I wouldn’t try to bring him back. I wouldn’t mind having him as the backup C/1B
As far as Gomes…I think I would offer him arbitration, but I wouldn’t want to sign him for very long term, and I still think he is risky because he hasn’t proved to be this good over a period of time.
@brublejr:
Good summary of the whole CF situation. Stubbs and Dickerson have obviously worked hard to make themselves valuable to the team. We can only hope (wish?) the leadership has the wisdom to see that as clearly as we do.
i am all for a Stubbs/Dickerson CF split of some sort(60/40) with CD learning to handle the corner spots better so he can slide over to those spots as needed for D. It will be interesting to see if Reds dump WT, which I doubt they do, and figure out some platoon in LF, (repeat Gomes/Nix??) along with Bruce in RF. That puts them at 5 OF without WT, but again doubt that happens given current organization practices.
I’ll be honest, I’m a little surprised he said that, I was fully expecting him to say that Willy is still our starter
The problem with Walt “Dusty-proofing” the roster is that Walt is the one who signed Taveras and Walt is the one who brought McDonald north this spring.
Maybe Dusty urged Walt to do both moves. Maybe by now, Walt has realized that Dusty is no judge of talent. But I think Dusty has a lot more to do with roster construction than people realize.
Walt is the one who sat on his hands for weeks while this team floundered — both this year and last year. He didn’t get a move done for a LF this offseason, and instead tried the Bowden approach by signing a bunch of scrubs and hoping their numbers equal one average LF. The only time Walt acted like he was awake was when he went after Rolen and paid too much.
I’ve said before, Dusty’s a real problem, but he’s not the only problem. Walt hasn’t impressed me yet except in his ability to trade away Dusty’s scrubs, but it takes him too long to even do that. If we perceive that as “Dusty-proofing,” then okay, but that sort of thing won’t last. Taveras will get healthy and return, and Dusty will treat that like a “good problem to have” or some such baloney, and Taveras will play for weeks before anything is done.
If Taveras is on the roster and Dusty is the manager, then, Taveras will be the starting CF. That is just how Dusty does things. Walt needs to realize that and make sure that the Reds have a CF and SS that has a high OBP, since those two positions will bat 1-2 in the order.
I wanted to toss out the names of Chris Heisey and Laynce Nix for the discussion. While I agree that fairly even mix of Dickerson/Stubbs is the obvious solution, Heisey could blossom into an all around fulltime solution, and we could do a lot worse than Nix who is a good defender and about an average hitter with pop as a part time CF also.
The sad thing about the OF situation is that in a lost season this disorganization has done next to nothing to get the answers it needed about the shape of the OF for next year. Stubbs and Balentien should have been featured late in the year to see where and how they may fit. Their is still no sense of a clue as to what they will do with LF going into next year. The Gomes/Nix combo worked out even better than anticipated, but Balentien is young and talented and seeming to show the potential he’s demonstrated in the minors. Frazier and his good bat was removed from the OF picture and buried behind our overrated 2B. Also, does Votto factor into it with Yonder Alonso on the near horizon? They are even confusing the issue more with talks of moving Francisco to LF. The OF is now cluttered with lots of interesting parts and pieces with no semblance of a plan on how they will deal with it. Factor into it the whole Taveras ordeal and the utter amazing notion that the moron managing the club feels the need to get McDonald ABs. I have no confidence at all that they will come up with a sensible solution.
I usually go into the offseason with lots of hope that the Reds can and will attempt to fill the holes to give us a chance at a winning club the following spring. But after the last two miserable offseasons and the mess they’ve created this season, I’m pretty apathetic about our chances to see anything positive done to improve the club. I really hope they prove me wrong, but they’ve really about beat me into submission and will have to do a lot to revive my hope for the current regime to be able to turn things around.
We attended last night game, on the way home we were listening to WLW and former Red aid to Bowden Doc Rodgers. He said the Reds need to do the following:
1. Trade Coco as you can’t pay someone like that the kind of monies he is due.
2. Trade Willy T as he is not worth his monies. HOWEVER, in order to get Willy traded you have to spice up the offer and he said the Reds need to include Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs in the deal. According to “Doc” Jay has shown he just isn’t major league material and Drew is at the peak of his appeal meter to other teams.
I almost drove off the Road. It’s no wonder this team was horribly run during Bowden’s tenure, with views like that. Yes dump Willy, eat the contract if you have to, but you don’t give away young talent and to say Bruce is not ML talent after such a short sampling is just stupid.
Doc Rogers really doesn’t like Jay Bruce for some reason. Seems like he is a Homer Bailey fan though if I remember correctly. I don’t know if Bruce will ever be a grerat player, but the Reds would be silly to trade him.
I agree with Tom Diesman though…this team has all kinds of “Maybe” options in left field….Gomes, Balentin, Heisey, Nix (don’t think he’s going to be considered)…but it just all lends to more uncertainty.
And having Stubbs as the starting center fielder worries me too. Why not Chris Dickerson? If Dickerson is healthy, he seems to be the best option in Center. I just fear with Stubbs that you are going to have a little better version of Taveras. A speedy guy with a little more power, who doesn’t get on base enough.
Stubbs has a .315 OBP, and I honestly think he is doing a little better then expected at the plate. Stubbs is going to be our lead off hitter? And Janish with his .300 OBP is gonna hit second? Please tell me this isn’t gonna happen.
I actually like Janish, and think Stubbs can be serviceable. If those 2 are batting 7th and 8th in your lineup then it’s not a huge problem. It’s not really a criticism of those 2 players.
But on a team offensively challenged you can’t have too many guys who aren’t good hitters and just very good defensively.
I worry about giving Gomes the job too. He’s been solid, but he’s only hit .260 and strikes out a ton. It’s just not a well built or thought out offense right now.
Balentin…unproven. Playing well when the games don’t matter. I don’t know. I’m just very skeptical about all these outfielders and whether there is a legit guy among them that could play 130 games and hit 20-30 HRs and drive in 85-100 runs like they need.
I think Taveras is DFAd outright. The Reds cleared approximately 4 million from the books this year and can balance what’s owed to Taveras. I think next year’s outfield is Dickerson/Gomes/Stubbs and Bruce with the fifth outfielder being a toss up.
I read some of Baker’s remarks about Francisco being the left fielder. If that’s the case, then the Reds have Gomes and Dickerson seing some regular playing time.
I just don’t see how you can keep Francisco, Alonso and Votto. It doesn’t make sense to me.
I agree with holding onto Nix. He definately has holes but his defense and power, along with his versatility in the outfield make him at least moderately valuable. I also think that his upside is still there and he will get better.
McDonald really doesn’t have a chance to make it in ‘10 but his bad stint in April/early May seems to be multiplied in everybody’s minds. Dickerson had a subpar April, though not as bad and he worked his way out of it. Stubbs, may have struggled similarly had he been brought up in April. McDonald at least performed consistently at AAA and came back up and has ops’d about .875 and has played better defense.
He will be reassigned and dropped off the 40-man in the offseason so it’s not a real issue other than that he doesn’t deserve to be beat up on as much as he has. I think Heisey will be a real factor and you might as well throw Danny Dorn into the mix if Nix isn’t retained.
I believe that WJ is serious about Stubbs being the CFer in 2010. Drew’s competition should of course be Dickerson (not Taveras). Both Stubbs and Dickerson should get a lot of playing time. And Bruce obviously. Gomes/Nix has worked out better than one would have thought, Nix was on a roll before his neck injury. If someone from that group has to go to make room for Balentien, I suppose it would have to be Nix, but Balentien hasn’t shown that he can cut it yet.
In any case, the above assumes no more WT and no more McD, the one thing we all seem to agree would be best. No more McD would seem obvious. As for no more WT, there is hope. WJ surprised me with his Stubbs statement, WT has fallen out of favor with him. And even Dusty is not keen on seeing WT again this year, he said a thing the other day about how it would be hard for WT to come back at this point and the OF is crowded.
I still think, as I’ve said before, that WJ pulled the plug on WT for 2009, he (like the rest of us) just couldn’t watch it any more.
About WT’s not drawing walks. He can’t draw walks even if he goes up there with a walk as his goal. Pitchers know he can’t hurt them, they pitch him the same way they pitch an opposing pitcher: strikes over the heart of the plate, then get him to chase with 2 strikes.
Drawing walks also requires an ability to foul off good pitches, something WT can’t do.
Is Stubbs power for real or a fluke? Past production would lean towards fluke. If it is a fluke then Dickerson is a better option in CF in my opinion.
I’m not in favor of a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon. I’m not a fan of platoons personally unless it’s with older players who are just happy to be getting playing time. IMO a guy who is 25/26 needs to be somewhere playing full time so he can improve his game.
My guess is that if the Reds are serious about trading WT they are going to have to send at least half his salary with him. There’s no way any GM not using crack would take on $4mil with the production, or lack there of, that he had this year.
It’s also hard to draw walks when bunting is such a big part of your game, especially the drag bunt where you aim at pitches early in the count.
The Starting Outfield
CF- Drew Stubbs
LF- Jonny Gomes
RF- Jay Bruce
Backups- Chris Dickerson, Daniel Dorn, Chris Heisey
Let Go of Taveras, Nix, Balentin
But it will most likely be
CF- Willy Taveras
LF- Chris Dickerson
RF- Jay Bruce
Backups- Wladimir Balentin, Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix
The thing that kills my soul is that the REDS stick themselves with players like Taveras who they feel like they have to play because of his pay. Release him outright and watch the others teams let him slide because they already know he’s not good enough to be an everyday player in the majors.
It amazes me that we develop a fixation on players who are terrible. Someone needs to give this organization a good sniff of smelling salts.
How can you trade a player that no one else wants on their roster?
i think the outfield should be gomes, stubbs, bruce, with dickerson and balentein off the bench.
that way, you have good defense in center and right, and good balance at the plate. dickerson can get regular playing time against righties in both center and left. balentein can spell bruce against tough lefties.
francisco has wily mo pena written all over him right now, and needs to go spend some more time at aaa. heisey and dorn should probably start in the minors, but it’s good to have depth (as we’ve seen this year) and could be up later.
wee willy needs to be gone and only jacketty can do it. nix has been servicable, but nothing special, and i’d take dickerson over him.
the real questions to me are shortstop and the starting rotation…
I don’t think the rotation will be that hard to round out
We know Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey are in…it’s just a matter of who’s #5
Gomes had had a great year at the plate. But will he reproduce that next year?
1B, 2B, 3B, RF, CF are all set for next year
that leaves C, SS, and LF as a place we could upgrade this PATHETIC offense
I have no problem with Hanigan’s high OBP and solid defense at C
lets not forget this offense is one of the WORST IN BASEBALL even with our past-his-prime-veteran leader. The offense needs to be improved
BUT with that said, the best way to improve the offense would be to get rid of Dusty
He played Gonzo despite being HORRIBLE
He played Taveras despite there being better options (Dickerson and then Stubbs)
He didn’t want Gomes and for most of the season didn’t play him much at all
He seems to want to play Corky instead of getting Hanigan more experience
He’s playing McDonald every chance he gets when there is NOTHING to gain from doing so.
The offense would have been a lot better this year if Dusty wasn’t manager
But is that increase enough to even get the offense to average?
I guess what I meant by questions regarding the rotation was how are we going to get it better?
Harang and Arroyo shouldn’t be counted on to be anything more than league average-type pitchers at this point in their careers. Cueto and Bailey have shown flashes of brilliance, but neither has shown they can be a frontend starter.
To me that looks like a collection of 3rd and 4th starters. So what this team needs is a 1st or 2nd starter to go with them, not a #5. We’re currently 10th in the NL in starter’s ERA.
Losing Volquez doesn’t give us much chance next year.
to add to the discussion:
stubbs started on 8/19, and rolen returned on 8/23. since then bruce and dickerson have been the only pieces of next year’s offense missing really.
since 8/23 the reds have scored 4.18 runs/game. before then they’d scored 3.93 runs/game. over a full season that’s 40 runs or 4 wins. so it looks like those two changes have been pretty significant.
add in bruce and dickerson, and maybe you could get that up a little higher still.
but the reds era is 4.24, so if we get exactly the same pitching next year that we did this year, and if we stick with this offense, we should be right around .500, give or take.
the starts made by owings and lehr (170ip, 5.24 era) need to go to a good pitcher if the reds hope to contend with this offense. a starter with a 3.50 era would have given up 35 fewer runs than those two (over 180 innings).
with gains from bruce and dickerson, and hopefully some improvements from bailey as well, the addition of a front end starter could get the reds in 85-87 win range and at least in striking distance.
for what it’s worth, the reds are 18-10 since 8/23, so maybe there’s more hope than i’m seeing right now.
But if we had $XXXXXXXX to spend, it seems to me like a big bat in LF would cost somewhat less than a #1/2 starter in today’s market. Do I have that wrong?
Plus, our ballpark might be attractive to a hitter, while being a big red flag to a top-line pitcher…
interesting but I’m not 100% sure.
the premium right now is on prospects, which is I think complicated.
to read between the lines, GMs are have been putting a premium on trades where they trade a big contract for a handful of prospects and even more so on getting that one guy in AA that could be a star.
I’m not saying you are wrong and actually I think you might be right it’s that value is not put on the Hollidays of the world right now. The value is being put on the idea that the Holidays can pull in 2-3 prospects.
I think GMs are finally realizing that one big bat, like Holliday is VERY, VERY useful if you’re team is in the right place and needs that one quality player to push the team over the hump but otherwise you build cheaply from within.
The As acquiring Holliday was I think a huge mistake. Why? Because I think Beane thought he could have a pitching staff that would produce right away (they have more quality pitching prospects than most teams combined) but he was wrong, so the mistake is in that theory and in the end he wasn’t worth having on a team like they have (maybe next year when their starters have more experience) but look what he has done for Stl. A team close to being good went from good to powerhouse.
Are the Reds close enough to make it worth it to sign a player like Holliday? Or do Bruce, Stubbs, Bailey, etc need more experience first?
it’s one thing to be able to project players performance, it’s another to figure out that $12 million (or whatever it is) is too much to pay for a closer, or any other player because you’re team isn’t that close to winning.
in the really stupid/obvious dept, a big bat in LF would help the 4 good starters we have and a good starter would help the team once every 5 days. See, Hamilton for Volquez deal
I think you’ve touched on the question that the smart team are trying to figure out.
@mike: Hanigan may not have the pop that alot of catchers do but if he could play a full season 10 HR and 40-50RBI and a .270 avg with his OBP is not out of the question