it’s excellent as always, and describes to a T the problems the reds have (losing but doing it the RIGHT way) and where i see a solution to those problems (winning, but the wrong way).
i love the idea of scouting only soft tossers. good stuff.
riddle me this: johnathon gomes has a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than our cleanup hitter. why isn’t he our cleanup hitter?
al that riddle is something I’ve been wondering for 2 months
I’d add to that that there is a clear platoon (or maybe rotation of a handful of players) that could bat 4th and play the OF and I have no idea why they bat so low in the order
Current Reds OPS+ leaders (you’d think these guys would bat in the heart of the order)
138 Votto (bats 3rd mostly)
131 Gomes (5th/6th)
104 Balentien
103 Phillips (4th)
99 Nix
96 Rolen
you’d think the combination of Gomes/Balentien/Nix would bat 4th
in particular if it’s a strict platoon. Nix has been forced to hit against some lefties (29 PA) because of our pathetic roster and the way we handle injuries and he’s been absolutely awful against them. Nix’s OPS+ would be 5 points higher if he didn’t hit against lefties. Probably half of his PA vs lefties are against relievers late in the game.
the answer to the riddle is that Dusty doesn’t understand
amen mike. anyone remember when willy is due to come back off the dl? i was just thinking about what was going to happen when he does. it seems clear that stubbs has thus far out-played him in every way, unless i’m missing something.
being younger, cheaper, better makes it seem like stubbs should be the starter, but i doubt that means much in the manager’s office. i’m imagining that dusty will feel like he’s got to get willy back on track for next season.
I just logged on. Why did Corky Miller sac Balentien to 3rd with Arroyo coming up ? If Arroyo lays down a squeeze bunt and scores the run, I’m impressed. If he pops out on the first pitch, I’m not impressed.
Does Dusty think that getting a runner to 3rd with 1 out counts as a run ?
I love the idea of the game within the game- Arroyo v. Lowe both of the Red Soxs and battling each other! Imagine the chatter after the pick off? Who will wintonight?
wow. I don’t care if you’re playing a AAA team, 10-4 is good
I have posted the # of close games the Reds have lost by 1-2 runs a number of times. I think the difference between Stubbs/Janish 1-2 combined with Rolen being in the lineup instead of Taveras/Gonzo/Rosales is enough to make a difference and now the Reds will win more of those close games.
With all the lefties coming up in the 8th (counting Chipper), I would take out Arroyo and go with Rhodes to start the 8th. Dusty likes to wait until his starter is in trouble. What will Dusty do ?
no way! He pulled Arroyo and Arroyo had only 100 pitches
did someone finally say something to Dusty?? I figured, eh, he’s under 130 pitches Dusty will throw him back out there. Dusty actually did the right thing???
Chris Welsh: “The Reds are just a better team now. Scott Rolen is better at third base. Drew Stubbs is better in center field. Paul Janish is better at shortstop.”
Kurt, not that I said anything mean about Arroyo but I for sure said, “trade him”
like last year his 1st half and 2nd half have been night and day
who will finish the season with the Reds lowest ERA as a starter?
4.09 Wells
4.21 Harang
4.23 Arroyo
4.35 Volquez
4.43 Lehr
4.51 Cueto
5.74 Owings
5.90 Bailey
6.46 Maloney
This win had to mean a lot to Arroyo. To be at 12-12 with the lousy run support, that recent 9th inning 4 run lead blown save, etc. is an accomplishment. And beating his former rotation mate had to feel good.
His recent history has definitely been bad first halves and good second halves. Trading him still might make sense, but looking to 2010, starting pitching looks like a big need again. Volquez down, who knows about Cueto, Bailey, Harang.
I like Aaron but he’s on a decline.
maybe but lets not forget the beginning of the season Arroyo was pitching crappy but GETTING run support….he had a winning record despite one of the worst ERA in baseball for a while.
His E(W)-E(L) based on what his W-L record would be with average run support before today was 11-10 Today probably makes it 12-10. In other words it’s not like he should be 14-10 which intuition sort of tells us
Looking at SNLVAR before tonights start, Arroyo was the 26th best starter in the NL
really makes you wonder a massive collection of what-ifs
WHAT IF
Volquez didn’t get hurt
Taveras never made the club
Janish was named starter out of spring training
we didn’t trade Dunn for Owings
and Bailey was our #5 all season
(47) It’s a good bet that Wells won’t finish with the lowest ERA. That leaves it a 2 way race between Arroyo and Harang.
No more Harang this year makes it less interesting.
Anyway, I’d put my money on Arroyo, but it’s risky money, just one disastrous start would blow it.
Bailey’s will keep going down, hopefully Cueto is used fairly lightly the rest of the way and his goes down a little.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
RN Exclusives!
The Big Board -- In-Depth Reds Organizational Depth Chart (updated 2/23/10)
Salary Chart -- Our chart on the current and future contract status for the Reds roster (updated 2/23/10)
Loading ...
Game’s not played until tomorrow, chief.
as an interesting read for the off day: poz on thinking outside the box in baseball.
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/02/a-few-baseball-ideas/#more-2575
it’s excellent as always, and describes to a T the problems the reds have (losing but doing it the RIGHT way) and where i see a solution to those problems (winning, but the wrong way).
i love the idea of scouting only soft tossers. good stuff.
D’oh!
I’m gonna take this down and set it to publish tomorrow. But we already have a post in the hopper about the Poz article.
huh? there is a game today no?
oh and lets not forget we also beat up on the Brew Crew
8-2 vs the Pathetic Pirates and Brew Crew
8-24 vs LA, SF, Washington, Stl, Cubs, Colorado and SD
in recent weeks
Hoping Stubbs continues his 11 (.855 OPS) game on base streak and 5 (1.207 OPS!!!) game hit streak
I see this originally got posted last night
This whole post had me utterly confused for a minute there. I had to go to Reds.com and check the schedule to make sure I hadn’t lost my mind.
He had this up yesterday evening, Mike, and just reposted it. Hence the confusion.
Out and about most of this weekend, hopefully the Redlegs bring me home a few wins.
riddle me this: johnathon gomes has a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than our cleanup hitter. why isn’t he our cleanup hitter?
not that this necessarily means anything, but espn’s gamecast has lowe getting all kinds of strike calls, and bronson getting squeezed pretty tight.
2 of those four balls to escobar were in the box and one was borderline.
Al #9 … a riddle is a dangerous thing — gets people thinking..
But that’s a darn good question. ’cause it makes too much sense, maybe?
That’s gotta feel good for Stubbs, hitting the ball well against Lowe. (even if a DP kills it)
al that riddle is something I’ve been wondering for 2 months
I’d add to that that there is a clear platoon (or maybe rotation of a handful of players) that could bat 4th and play the OF and I have no idea why they bat so low in the order
Current Reds OPS+ leaders (you’d think these guys would bat in the heart of the order)
138 Votto (bats 3rd mostly)
131 Gomes (5th/6th)
104 Balentien
103 Phillips (4th)
99 Nix
96 Rolen
you’d think the combination of Gomes/Balentien/Nix would bat 4th
in particular if it’s a strict platoon. Nix has been forced to hit against some lefties (29 PA) because of our pathetic roster and the way we handle injuries and he’s been absolutely awful against them. Nix’s OPS+ would be 5 points higher if he didn’t hit against lefties. Probably half of his PA vs lefties are against relievers late in the game.
the answer to the riddle is that Dusty doesn’t understand
Stubbs, 12 game on base streak and 6 game hit streak
I hope Taveras never plays another game as a Red
amen mike. anyone remember when willy is due to come back off the dl? i was just thinking about what was going to happen when he does. it seems clear that stubbs has thus far out-played him in every way, unless i’m missing something.
being younger, cheaper, better makes it seem like stubbs should be the starter, but i doubt that means much in the manager’s office. i’m imagining that dusty will feel like he’s got to get willy back on track for next season.
as for a lineup, i’d like to see them try:
stubbs
rolen
votto
gomes
as the top, as i see rolen as more of an avg/obp guy at this point in his career.
Al #16 is all right on. It’s that last sentence that gives me a sick feeling..
I just logged on. Why did Corky Miller sac Balentien to 3rd with Arroyo coming up ? If Arroyo lays down a squeeze bunt and scores the run, I’m impressed. If he pops out on the first pitch, I’m not impressed.
Does Dusty think that getting a runner to 3rd with 1 out counts as a run ?
I love the idea of the game within the game- Arroyo v. Lowe both of the Red Soxs and battling each other! Imagine the chatter after the pick off? Who will wintonight?
I like Scott Rolen, I really do. And I like Chris Welsh 95% of the time. But please get off Rolens’ jock for one evening, please.
I’m sure there’s a lot of competitive heat tonite between Bronson and Lowe.
Another meaningless RBI for Phillips. (But I agree he should not be batting cleanup.)
The Reds are 10-4 since Taveras went on the DL.
wow. I don’t care if you’re playing a AAA team, 10-4 is good
I have posted the # of close games the Reds have lost by 1-2 runs a number of times. I think the difference between Stubbs/Janish 1-2 combined with Rolen being in the lineup instead of Taveras/Gonzo/Rosales is enough to make a difference and now the Reds will win more of those close games.
Arroyo just isn’t gonna be happy until he ties this one up
I agree, a team without Taveras and Gonzalez has to be better than one with those two.
Mike (25) No doubt about it.
A meaningless RBI for Phillips? Either I’m reading that out of context or that’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever read.
With all the lefties coming up in the 8th (counting Chipper), I would take out Arroyo and go with Rhodes to start the 8th. Dusty likes to wait until his starter is in trouble. What will Dusty do ?
You’re reading it out of context. It was sarcastic.
lets not forget Rosales got 42 starts at 3B because EE was out so I think the impact of Rolen is important
93 games of 45 OPS+ for Taveras
17 games of .529 OPS batting 2nd for Gonzo
50 games of .560 OPS playing 3rd for Rosales
replaced with
97 OPS+ from Stubbs
12 games of .828 OPS of Janish batting 2nd
15 games of .750 OPS from Rolen at 3B
that is a massive change to the lineups production
what sad, is this is pretty much what everyone has been saying since the middle of May
Re (29, 31): Every time Dunn would hit an important HR last year and the years before, someone would say: “Another meaningless HR by Dunn.”
no way! He pulled Arroyo and Arroyo had only 100 pitches
did someone finally say something to Dusty?? I figured, eh, he’s under 130 pitches Dusty will throw him back out there. Dusty actually did the right thing???
Wow, that was quick, Dusty makes the right move for the bottom of the 8th. An obvious one, but I wasn’t sure he’d do it.
If Coco makes this a big drama I’ll… well, I don’t know what I’ll do.
Clap yo hands…
Wow, the Reds win another. What an improved lineup, on offense and defense. And we all know why (see 25 and 32).
Sweet!
Chris Welsh: “The Reds are just a better team now. Scott Rolen is better at third base. Drew Stubbs is better in center field. Paul Janish is better at shortstop.”
Amen. Chris tells it like it is.
Bruce 0 for 3 tonight with a BB (0 for 6 overall)
Hanigan 1 for 4 with a 2B and RBI (2 for 7 overall)
when they get those two back, which I assume will be soon the team will be even better
I still can’t believe Dusty took Arroyo out at the right time, after only 99 pitches. Maybe Bronson told him he was gassed.
According to Welsh if you tell the manager you are gassed you are a vagina.
Look out Astros and Brewers. But maybe not, our starting pitching is a bit patched up right now. Does anyone care if we finish in 3rd place ?
I’d like it, but what would make me really happy is never seeing WT in the lineup again.
Arroyo’s ERA is down to 4.23. I think some people around here may owe him an apology if he keeps it up.
Kurt, not that I said anything mean about Arroyo but I for sure said, “trade him”
like last year his 1st half and 2nd half have been night and day
who will finish the season with the Reds lowest ERA as a starter?
4.09 Wells
4.21 Harang
4.23 Arroyo
4.35 Volquez
4.43 Lehr
4.51 Cueto
5.74 Owings
5.90 Bailey
6.46 Maloney
Actually, I think I said trade him also.
This win had to mean a lot to Arroyo. To be at 12-12 with the lousy run support, that recent 9th inning 4 run lead blown save, etc. is an accomplishment. And beating his former rotation mate had to feel good.
His recent history has definitely been bad first halves and good second halves. Trading him still might make sense, but looking to 2010, starting pitching looks like a big need again. Volquez down, who knows about Cueto, Bailey, Harang.
I like Aaron but he’s on a decline.
maybe but lets not forget the beginning of the season Arroyo was pitching crappy but GETTING run support….he had a winning record despite one of the worst ERA in baseball for a while.
His E(W)-E(L) based on what his W-L record would be with average run support before today was 11-10 Today probably makes it 12-10. In other words it’s not like he should be 14-10 which intuition sort of tells us
Looking at SNLVAR before tonights start, Arroyo was the 26th best starter in the NL
really makes you wonder a massive collection of what-ifs
WHAT IF
Volquez didn’t get hurt
Taveras never made the club
Janish was named starter out of spring training
we didn’t trade Dunn for Owings
and Bailey was our #5 all season
Kurt, are vaginas inherently weaker than penises, or is that, you know, thoughtless sexism.
According to Welsh if you tell the manager you are gassed you are a penis just doesn’t have the same impact.
(47) It’s a good bet that Wells won’t finish with the lowest ERA. That leaves it a 2 way race between Arroyo and Harang.
No more Harang this year makes it less interesting.
Anyway, I’d put my money on Arroyo, but it’s risky money, just one disastrous start would blow it.
Bailey’s will keep going down, hopefully Cueto is used fairly lightly the rest of the way and his goes down a little.
pinson those are my thoughts as well….and Bailey, because he has many fewer innings can go down quick
I wanted to add but forgot to add perspective to that list
the average NL starter ERA is 4.33