Loading ...Minor league prospect prognosticator John Sickels updates his list of Reds’ top prospects from his December, 2008 list. The list is from December, as are the ratings. The notes are current for this year.
A HUGE word of warning for this team: no A prospects are listed. He does say that we have a good group of prospects, but we are lacking arms at the top of the system. In my opinion, for a team with a dearth of talent, having B-level prospects spells years of mediocrity; somebody needs to be able to play. B players typically don’t carry your team. Yonder Alonso was the only B+ candidate listed and Sickels says there are still questions about his ability to hit lefties. Solid B’s went to Todd Frazier (without a position), Chris Valaika (poor plate discipline), and 3B Neftali Soto (strike zone issues).
It seems we have several toolsy Latin hitters in the pipeline with no strike zone or plate discipline. Also, Danny Dorn is hitting .197 against lefties.
Bill James has a new season score methodology for pitchers. Now, the 1939 best pitcher (by James’s methodology) would be NL MVP and Reds SP Bucky Walters, who went 27-11 with a 2.29 ERA. Runner-up is Red SP Paul Derringer who went 25-7 with a 2.93 ERA. Derringer’s K/W rate was better than Walters’s (128-35 vs. 137-109), but I like James’s quote: “It’s a debatable point and I can see it either way, but you know, you always prefer to have the MVP in first place if you can.”
Also wanted to throw out links to a couple of Bobby Abreu postings, here and here, since we are in need of veteran leadership, offense, and a leftfielder that’s within our budget.
Deals are out there.
On a sad note, former Reds owner William J. Williams, 93, passed away Sunday night. He was one of the principal owners during the Big Red Machine heyday of the 1970’s. His family is still actively involved in Reds management. Williams also was one of the founding owners of the football Cincinnati Bengals, and retained that ownership until his passing.
Sickel’s list is a review of his pre-season list. All grades and rankings are from Dec 2008. Would you give anyone on the list an A or A- ranking now?
The notes on the players are current notes; the grades are old grades. Having said that, I don’t see that many changes.
Sickels questions Alonso’s ability to hit lefties, so he can’t move up.
He says Frazier had a good year, but doesn’t know where he fits with the glove…that can’t move him up.
Says Valaika doesn’t have plate discipline…my guess is that moves him down. May be a B-, could be a C?
Soto’s production has been weak…he’ll move down to no more than a C
Stubbs was a B-…says what we know…has speed and defense, but no power…I think he would go to a B
Roenicke…ugh…says looks like a good major league reliever….up to a B?
Stewart…ugh…see Roenicke…looks like a good major league reliever…up to a B? (there’s about 5-6 million we blew…we could have these two guys instead of paying more…)
Lotzkar and Thompson injured all year…Ramirez pretty much ineffective…no better than C’s
Matt Maloney…he likes…B- candidate; says needs a chance
Francisco..lots of power…I think he’ll move him up from C+ to a B
Dickerson…fourth outfielder
Heisey…intriguing….I think he’ll be a B
The Reds graduated two A prospects in Votto and Bruce over the last two years. Bailey and Cueto are top prospects as well. That’s four guys with an A to B+ grade in two years. That’s not bad at all.
I can see Stubbs, Alonso and Frazier each being productive everyday players. You may even get an All-Star appearance or two from that group. However, the cornerstones of the franchise are Bruce and Votto. Like Braun and Fielder, the rest of the guys don’t have to be studs. If we have the following lineup in 2011, I think everyone is happy:
Stubbs – CF
Hanigan – C
Votto – LF
Alonso – 1B
Frazier – 2B
Bruce – RF
Phillips – SS
Francisco – 3B
Rotation
Volquez
Cueto
Bailey
Maloney
Wood
Sickels himself has said he is tight on giving out A grades to prospects. And having that many B levels seems to be a pretty good sign of some depth that should make it to the majors here shortly. Its too bad Valaika had a bad year just when the best opportunity for him presented itself. My hope for Frazier is they keep him at 2B. Then Francisco gets groomed for 3B to replace Rolen. Be nice to have a power switch hitter between Votto/Bruce, provided of course Juan can make it to the Bigs.
David @3
regarding your lineup, if these guys are as solid hitters as we think they might be and what some experts project them as, then no way is Hanigan 2nd in that lineup instead he would be 8th. I would say Frazier hits 2nd or maybe be creative and put Votto or Alonso at the 2 spot. Otherwise, move Phillips or Francisco to bat 5th.
It would rock to see almost entirely home-grown line-up but I doubt it will happen, given this either ownership/organization “plan” or the odds of all those guys really being major-league caliber talent.
Go (2010) Reds!
Francisco bats lefty…
And I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think he’s going to be any good at all. His K-to-BB rates the last 3 years have been 7-to-1, 6-to-1, and this year 5-to-1. Yes, they’re improving, but these ratios are HORRIBLE. There’s no record of anyone I could find having these ratios in the minors and having ANY success at the majors. Francoeur, Kingman, Esasky, Deer, Branyan… they all had MUCH better ratios than this (mostly due to more BB’s, not fewer K’s).
Like I said, I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my opinion for now. His awful error rate just adds to that opinion.
Dan, i was going by the Big Board link showing Francisco is a switch hitter. Baseball cube has him as a SH. and yes he K’s too much with too many E’s on D but he had big time power and he has at least a year at AAA to maybe clean up both those issues.
A’s are typically projected as stars; B’s are regulars; C’s are bench; anything else is marginal.
Where’s the arms and depth?
After all, as we have seen this year, there has to be more than just a frontline…
And, prospect can also be suspect until the big leagues hit. In the article, Sickels mentions this year’s draft as the Reds having drafted some guys that may have short cuts to the majors since they were advanced college players. That’s a good start.
But, of all the players mentioned, it seems that Frazier has had the best year. Francisco has had a good year, too, but that serious plate discipline problem will keep him around .200 with 30 homers in the majors…and I don’t see that changing much. Unfortunately, that seems to be the hitting rule of the organization…they don’t clog bases with people on base. Read the Sickels story…it gives the stats for each player.
Steve – yes there has to be more than a front line but got to get a front line regular lineup first given whats been run out there at times this year.
Seriously EE was run out of town for his defense and Fransisco is even worse. Yet everyone is projecting him to be the starting 3B in 2011? Trade while his value is still considered high after a nice run in AAA before his K rate is exposed even more next year in a full year at Louisville. We have more infield prospects than any other position in the minors and the front office needs to get something out of them before either the Rule V draft or minor league free agency.
Mad – that’s not a bad idea. It’d be nice to capitalize on Francisco’s performance and turn it into some pitching. With Frazier, Soto, Rolen there’s third should be covered. That said, Francisco is the best power hitter in the system.
Dok – I was having the same problem with the lineup. The problem with batting Frazier second is that you have Phillips in the five hole. I suppose he could hit there, but Hanigan has a great OBP for that spot and I’m not certain of Frazier’s. I’m not concerned about his strike out totals. He’s going to get his fair share, no doubt, but I think in time he’ll cut those numbers down. Most young guys do. If he is in the 3:1 range, then he should be a great 7th/8th hitter.