Loading ...Some points about the Reds from sabermetric circles that were published in the last couple of days:
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus reports on the latest Reds major injuries in a preview spot. They discuss Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Willy Taveras, and Scott Rolen’s injuries. They don’t rip Dusty Baker, but don’t let him off the hook either. Carroll doesn’t seem optimistic about Cueto and questions how Dusty will handle Taveras when he returns.
Baseball Prospectus also mentions Juan Francisco in their minor league report on their pay side and his impressive AAA start. To summarize that paragraph, there’s nothing really surprising to Redleg Nation readers in the blurb; BP says that no one in the Reds’ system can match his power, but there are questions about his defense and his “impatient approach” at the plate which has only earned him 17 unintentional walks this season.
Rob Neyer’s ESPN Sweet Spot was mentioned in a couple of comment sections yesterday about the “new” Reds centerfielder, Drew Stubbs, who has similar skills to the old Reds’ centerfielder, but costs a whole lot less and is younger. Neyer questions what the Reds will do with that $four million contract. You can read that one in full by clicking on the Rob Neyer link.
One more item of note, baseball historian Bill James was asked on his pay site about Pete Rose and whether he was truly Hall of Fame worthy as a player. A reader compares Rose to Juan Pierre, and James pretty much sets the record straight on just how important Pete Rose was to baseball in the 1970’s.
For the record, sabermetric statistical fans do not typically like Pete Rose. Not even getting into the gambling issue, most statisticians feel that Rose was overrated, just hung on to pad his stats, and really wasn’t that good when he played anyway…and, after all, who cares about veteran leadership?
James, in my opinion, pretty much started the whole idea of fantasy baseball as a result of his sabermetric baseball analysis and is definitely the guy who started the interest explosion of the “new” insightful baseball statistics. I don’t think fantasy baseball was his intention, but his writings started a full blown sport of its own as more and more information became available.
As readers of this website know, there’s a ton of information out there that’s available for anyone to read, anecdotal as well as statistical. Some sabermetricians may feel that James has “sold out,” but it’s my opinion that James gets it right when it comes to what makes a ballplayer famous. It’s more than just the stats; I said in a comments section the other day for Reds fans to not be surprised if Adam Dunn makes the Hall of Fame. With Dunn on track for over 600 career home runs (he’s the fifth fastest to get to 300), I think the election would come based on his massive home run totals in an era where home runs are on the decline due to the steroid scandal. It will make him even more unique than he is now.
There’s the other side of fame and Pete Rose meets that side, too. In addition to his 4.256 hits and a slew of other records, James mentions that the baseball world, especially writers, swarmed and swirled around Pete Rose. I think of it this way: While Reggie Jackson may have been the “straw that stirs the drink,” Pete Rose would have been the engine that motors baseball. Everyone and everything is compared to how Pete Rose played the game…we do it today, whether we mention Rose’s name or not.
James refers to Pete’s intangibles in his response, and also mentions that Rose was a better player than most statisticians give him credit, even if he wasn’t great. James says:
It’s fine to suggest that Rose wasn’t really that good; he wasn’t. You’re overstating the argument against him. He walked 75% more than Juan Pierre and had 40% more power, in a league where there was less hitting. Rose’s OPS for his career was 70 points better than the league average; Pierre’s is 30 points under the league average.
James also goes on to say that Rose may have been the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame ever, and that he probably would have been a first ballot Hall of Famer even if he had retired with 2500 hits.
I feel the steroid scandal may open a door for the Reds ‘prodigal son’ to come home.
I don’t care how you look at it Rose’s hit total is beyond impressive. Just to start you would have to have 200 hits for 20 years and you still aren’t in his ballpark. He might have hung on for a while, but come on, how many people can even come close to his total?
Just to add to what has been said about us lately, though it’s not necessarily from a sabermetrician point of view
In today’s ESPN chat, Jerry Crasnick fielded a couple of Reds questions
Boose (Louisville, KY)
Can Drew Stubbs push Willy Taveras out and be the everyday centerfielder in Cincinnati? I know he should have done it already but you know Dusty….
Jerry Crasnick
(12:53 PM)
Boose, Judging from what I’m reading out of Cincinnati, it wouldn’t take much to push out Willy Taveras. He’s really fallen out of favor there. The Reds aren’t going anywhere, so they might as well give Stubbs six weeks to see what he can do.
…
Ryan (PA)
Jerry, Is it too early to call Jay Bruce a bust?
Jerry Crasnick
(12:59 PM)
Ryan, It’s way, way too early. He’s 22 years old, and he already has 39 homers in the big leagues. He had 18 this year before he broke his wrist. I do think he could have benefited from some extra time in the minors — especially in his efforts to learn to hit lefty pitching. Let’s cut the kid some slack.
Here’s the link from the chat
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/27935/mlb-with-jerry-crasnick
Comparing Pete Rose to Juan Pierre is crazy talk.
Writing off Jay Bruce as a bust is a little loony, too, but I agree that he should have been allowed to marinate in the minors until about this time last year. But he’ll be all right. I’m looking forward to seeing him get a couple more weeks on the field this season. His season-devouring injury has been overlooked and underrated by a lot of folks.
It seems like stats geek write a player off because they don’t walk enough.
If Taveras had really fallen out of favor Dickerson would be playing center instead of right field.
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I think I meet the definition of “stats geek” and I certainly haven’t written Bruce off. It seems to me the ones writing him off are the same ones who think any time a player puts up good numbers for a month that he should start everyday. Anyone who really takes time to consider it, should realize that Bruce is still VERY young. There’s plenty of time.
I fully agree that Bruce (and Homer Bailey) are too young to write off despite the controversy that sometimes surrounds their respective performances. Yet my fear is this: Are the Reds, and we as fans, doomed to forever be saying “just wait, player X is young, he has to learn?” In this case, “he” refers to the “next big thing” they are developing. I mean, don’t people say the same thing about Cueto, Volquez, Stubbs, Edwin(!). We love the potential of youth, and at some point we decide the window of opportunity closes by their mid to late 20’s based (often) on minor league stats. At some point, I want to just have a team that plays, and either you contribute to the team or you don’t, regardless of the year you were born.
Am I the only one seeing this about Rolen for the first time? I hadn’t heard that he was still having headaches. From Steve’s link to the Will Carroll article:
He still has a “very low level” headache, but no other deficits during workouts. He’ll be watched closely to make sure exertion doesn’t trigger anything. If not, he’ll be activated for the weekend by the Reds.
GregD – it sounds like post concussion syndrome. I’ve had two concussions in my life and had post concussion syndrome as a result of picking up athletic activities too soon.
the last thing we need is for him to go through what Ryan Church did last year when he came back too soon. I recently read some interview with him and man, head injuries are something you really don’t want to mess around with… we’re not playing for anything this year, ease him back in.
If you need a reason to watch tonight, the Reds and Pirates are wearing 1979 unis. Which means the godawful, polyester gray v-necks for the Reds and the “we are family” Pirate painters caps with the gold rings. Should be visually entertaining at least.
Derek Jeter’s role in baseball and his ability is pretty similar to Pete Rose. That is probably the closest modern player you could compare to Rose in his playing days. Ichiro is even more of a singles hitter than Rose and doesn’t walk as much. Rose’s HR totals fell off at age 30, but he hit a ton of doubles even into his late 30s. Rose has been a pariah for so long, I think he is almost getting under-rated at this point. Pretty much a generation of baseball fans have grown up with Pete Rose being a joke or a criminal.
I’m hoping that Jay Bruce figures it out. I wish the ghost of Charlie Lau would come to him and give him the answer on how to use the whole field so he would start killing that slow outside stuff. There are plenty of guys that came up young that were not killer out of the box, Mike Schmidt is one that immediately comes to mind, so hopefully next year is the break out season for Bruce.
an addition to the Reds showing up in sabr related articles.
This is a very in depth look at catcher defense
guess who comes out as the 2nd best defensive catcher in baseball
http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/08/15/diggin-in-the-defensive-dirt-part-7-catchers/
yup…Hanigan
I will also add despite his slump his OBP is still at a VERY good .366 which is not only the 2nd highest on the Reds but his overall production (even with his lack of power) has been average for a catcher
to be honest brublejr I don’t find Rose’s hit total that impressive
I know that is blasphemy to a lot of Reds fans but it’s always the way I’ve felt, even when I was a kid
What I do find impressive, which is part of the argument AGAINST Rose is that for 17 years (15 with the Reds) he was an average or better hitter. That is AMAZING! Very few players play 17 years no less hit at that level. Bench is the next closest Red, doing the same for 13 years
Only 17 players in history have had 400+ PA with an OPS+ >= 100 for more years than Rose
people might talk about “hanging around too long” but I think if you can produce at that level for so long hang around as long as you want
Sure Rose is no Ruth, Williams or Bonds but I don’t see how that’s very relevant. He played well for a LONG time
oh and to point out just how absurd the Pierre/Rose comparison is…I mentioned above what Rose did for an amazing 17 seasons and that only 17 players in history had done it for more seasons.
Pierre has done it 2 season out of 10
We’re talking the difference between HOF and below average. We are talking about the difference between 385 runs create above position average compared to -67
that comparison is not only moronic it’s insulting