Clarification–defense as I was using it in that post means pitching + fielding. It’s just straight-up runs allowed, with a park adjustment, compared to league average.
-j

I think the thing that stood out the most for me was how bad the 2001-2005 defense was.
I’ll bet this had a major impact on how bad the pitching looked and I’d guess in some of those years the difference between the team ERA and FIP were big

and your analysis shows similar results about this years offense. That this years offense is one of the 3 worst Reds offenses in the last 50 years

Nice post. It inspired me to put together my own look at things, strictly using actual runs scored data relative to NL average (after park adjustments).
http://www.basement-dwellers.com/2009/08/offense-and-defense-over-reds-history.html
I found that the 2009 team offense was on pace to be 11th worst in Reds history by my measure. 1982 tied 1951 as 2nd-worst, behind the horrific 1930 season. And I didn’t include this in my post, but if you extrapolate every season to 162 games, the 2009 team drops to 12th. Out of 120. Still not particularly good.

How did the 1997 season fare in your analysis? That team came up as only a smidgen better than the 2009 team in my stuff.
-j

they have the 6th best defense in baseball, 2nd in the Central behind the Cubs

they have the 28th best offense in baseball, last in the Central

they have the 21st best rotation in baseball, 5th in the Central only ahead of the Brew Crew.

they have the 6th best bullpen in baseball, tops in the Central

the offense has been hurt by the obvious two players but there is more to it than that.
Sure Gonzo and Taveras are 2 of the worst 15 hitters in baseball this season

RCAA RCAA
1 Emilio Bonifacio -26
T2 Yuniesky Betancourt -25
T2 Dioner Navarro -25
T2 Willy Taveras -25
5 Nick Punto -23
T6 Edgar Renteria -22
T6 Ronny Cedeno -22
8 Delmon Young -21
T9 Jason Kendall -20
T9 Adam Everett -20
T9 Garrett Atkins -20
12 Alex Gonzalez -19
T13 Alexi Casilla -18
T13 Brendan Harris -18
T15 Chris Young -17
T15 Bengie Molina -17
T15 J.J. Hardy -17

but we have also had an absolute black hole at 3B, with injuries to blame
The Reds by position, looking at just offense

Runs Created Above Positional average
RCAP rank in baseball
19 6th 1B
2 12th C
-1 15th 2B
-6 21st RF
-12 22nd LF
-20 27th 3B
-22 27th SS
-26 30th CF

in other words the Reds have only 2 positions that have hit above average for that position. 1B and C.
RF is fixed with Bruce
3B is fixed with Rolen
CF could be fixed with some combination of Dickerson, Heisey, Stubbs or even Bruce

that leaves SS and LF. With LF I’m just not convinced yet that some combination of Heisey, Gomes, Nix, and Balentein can produce like an average LFer

With Votto coming back down to reality and Rolen out our offense could actually be getting worse in the coming days

Second, thanks Shawn I don’t really know much about that time period for the Reds but it is fascinating to think the exact same thing looks like it’s going on now. The Reds trying to focus on pitching and defense and going too far with it and “choked on a lack of run scoring”. As I said, I don’t know much about the 40s/50s Reds but I DO know they did not have a .500 record from 1945-55 and it was largely due to a lack of offense

Third, Dan, yes EqA is adjust for ballpark and era.
And Runs/G or RC/G?

here is some Runs/G info on the Reds

The Reds average 3.96 R/G which is 2nd to last in the NL
League average is 4.48.

I’m a bit confused by the next bit of info
R/G
3.90 Home
4.02 Road

and the Reds play in a hitters park. huh? Is that because we have so few hitters who can regularly hit for power? So when we go to a park with a larger OF (fewer HR hit) our crappy guys like Taveras do slightly better? Hmm..I think that theory is wrong just by taking a quick glance at the Reds players road stats. Dickerson and Nix are the only two who appear significantly better on the road.

and lastly something I’ve thought about for a while, this idea of building your team (as a GM) with such a narrow focus as defense or pitching or offense or pitching and defense is just so silly. It’s all about getting the best team on the field and that involves all aspects of the game.

I found this graph to be a *perfect* example. It shows where teams fall when it comes to pitching-n-defense

http://www.baycityball.com/2009/08/14/friday-graph-defense-and-pitching/

The two things I noticed from looking at that graph are
a. The Reds pitching has not been as good as we expected or think
b. there is a good team (in the playoff race) in each of the 4 quadrants of the graph

How does our Runs/G look on the road vs. at home this year?