Loading ...My favorite sort of question was posed in last night’s game thread:
“What is the worst offense in Reds history? Is the 2009 team coming close?” Let’s take a look.
First, since 1980 the current seasons looks to be the worst. The only season close is 1982. Here are RC/G compared to league average
RUNS CREATED/GAME
YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Reds 2009 -.92 4.11 5.04
2 Reds 1982 -.80 3.62 4.42
3 Reds 2003 -.70 4.45 5.15
A slightly better comparison is EQA (Equivalent Average):
.243 2009 (tied for worst in baseball)
.247 1982 (23rd in baseball)
.252 2003 (23rd in baseball)
So far, the 2009 offense is the worst Reds offense in the last 30 years. Looking at the last 50 years, the above 3 offenses (2009, 2003 and 1982) are still the 3 worst.
We are halfway; how far back do we have to go to find a Reds offense worse than this year? Oh! Possibly 1950 and 1951:
RUNS CREATED/GAME
YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Reds 1951 -1.32 3.69 5.00
2 Reds 2009 -.92 4.11 5.04
3 Reds 1950 -.89 4.41 5.30
4 Reds 1982 -.80 3.62 4.42
5 Reds 2003 -.70 4.45 5.15
EQA
.235 1951 (worst in baseball)
.243 2009 (tied for worst in baseball)
.247 1982 (23rd in baseball)
.248 1950 (14th out of 16 teams)
.252 2003 (23rd in baseball)
So it looks like the 1951 offense was worse.
The 30s and 40s were some really dark years for the Reds. It looks like a lot of the 1940s offenses were also worse. Thus, it appears that there is no chance of this season being the worst in Reds history, mainly because the Reds have such a long history and baseball was so different in the early part of the century.
But this year’s offense is almost definitely the worst offense since 1951. I don’t know what the lineup was in 1951 but looking at the starters, only 2 had an OPS+ over 95. Connie Ryan 2B (97 OPS+) and Johnny Wyrostek OF (105 OPS+).
The same can be said for this season. Phillips 2B (100 OPS+) and Votto 1B (143 OPS+). Gomes only has 188 PA and might be a regular now but remember, the guy not only didn’t make the roster but never played when he first got called up.
So, not the worst in Reds history but it’s safe to say that this is the worst Reds offense in a very long time.
That was the aftermath of the McKechnie Era, following the 1939 pennant and 1940 World Series win. McKechnie valued defense over offense, and would often improve teams by improving their defense (and by extension, pitching) until they choked on a lack of run scoring. Hence, the Reds of the late 1940s and early 1950s.
Is EqA adjusted for era? (I assume it is.) Is it adjusted for ballpark?
How does our Runs/G look on the road vs. at home this year?
First, thanks for whoever edited my post. I can always use the help with my weak writing skills.
Second, thanks Shawn I don’t really know much about that time period for the Reds but it is fascinating to think the exact same thing looks like it’s going on now. The Reds trying to focus on pitching and defense and going too far with it and “choked on a lack of run scoring”. As I said, I don’t know much about the 40s/50s Reds but I DO know they did not have a .500 record from 1945-55 and it was largely due to a lack of offense
Third, Dan, yes EqA is adjust for ballpark and era.
And Runs/G or RC/G?
here is some Runs/G info on the Reds
The Reds average 3.96 R/G which is 2nd to last in the NL
League average is 4.48.
I’m a bit confused by the next bit of info
R/G
3.90 Home
4.02 Road
and the Reds play in a hitters park. huh? Is that because we have so few hitters who can regularly hit for power? So when we go to a park with a larger OF (fewer HR hit) our crappy guys like Taveras do slightly better? Hmm..I think that theory is wrong just by taking a quick glance at the Reds players road stats. Dickerson and Nix are the only two who appear significantly better on the road.
and lastly something I’ve thought about for a while, this idea of building your team (as a GM) with such a narrow focus as defense or pitching or offense or pitching and defense is just so silly. It’s all about getting the best team on the field and that involves all aspects of the game.
I found this graph to be a *perfect* example. It shows where teams fall when it comes to pitching-n-defense
http://www.baycityball.com/2009/08/14/friday-graph-defense-and-pitching/
The two things I noticed from looking at that graph are
a. The Reds pitching has not been as good as we expected or think
b. there is a good team (in the playoff race) in each of the 4 quadrants of the graph
Excellent and depressing analysis.
With Votto coming back down to reality and Rolen out our offense could actually be getting worse in the coming days
Speaking of Votto 71 K’s in 301 AB’s (24% of the time). I’m pretty sure you can’t be a .300 hitter striking out that much.
a little more on what the 2009 Reds have done
they have the 6th best defense in baseball, 2nd in the Central behind the Cubs
they have the 28th best offense in baseball, last in the Central
they have the 21st best rotation in baseball, 5th in the Central only ahead of the Brew Crew.
they have the 6th best bullpen in baseball, tops in the Central
the offense has been hurt by the obvious two players but there is more to it than that.
Sure Gonzo and Taveras are 2 of the worst 15 hitters in baseball this season
RCAA RCAA
1 Emilio Bonifacio -26
T2 Yuniesky Betancourt -25
T2 Dioner Navarro -25
T2 Willy Taveras -25
5 Nick Punto -23
T6 Edgar Renteria -22
T6 Ronny Cedeno -22
8 Delmon Young -21
T9 Jason Kendall -20
T9 Adam Everett -20
T9 Garrett Atkins -20
12 Alex Gonzalez -19
T13 Alexi Casilla -18
T13 Brendan Harris -18
T15 Chris Young -17
T15 Bengie Molina -17
T15 J.J. Hardy -17
but we have also had an absolute black hole at 3B, with injuries to blame
The Reds by position, looking at just offense
Runs Created Above Positional average
RCAP rank in baseball
19 6th 1B
2 12th C
-1 15th 2B
-6 21st RF
-12 22nd LF
-20 27th 3B
-22 27th SS
-26 30th CF
in other words the Reds have only 2 positions that have hit above average for that position. 1B and C.
RF is fixed with Bruce
3B is fixed with Rolen
CF could be fixed with some combination of Dickerson, Heisey, Stubbs or even Bruce
that leaves SS and LF. With LF I’m just not convinced yet that some combination of Heisey, Gomes, Nix, and Balentein can produce like an average LFer
and to whichever editor edited my post. Wanna let me in on how you got the stats to lineup nice? some HTML to make it a fixed width font?
Mike,
Nice post. It inspired me to put together my own look at things, strictly using actual runs scored data relative to NL average (after park adjustments).
http://www.basement-dwellers.com/2009/08/offense-and-defense-over-reds-history.html
I found that the 2009 team offense was on pace to be 11th worst in Reds history by my measure. 1982 tied 1951 as 2nd-worst, behind the horrific 1930 season. And I didn’t include this in my post, but if you extrapolate every season to 162 games, the 2009 team drops to 12th. Out of 120. Still not particularly good.
How did the 1997 season fare in your analysis? That team came up as only a smidgen better than the 2009 team in my stuff.
-j
excellent work jinaz.
I think the thing that stood out the most for me was how bad the 2001-2005 defense was.
I’ll bet this had a major impact on how bad the pitching looked and I’d guess in some of those years the difference between the team ERA and FIP were big
and your analysis shows similar results about this years offense. That this years offense is one of the 3 worst Reds offenses in the last 50 years
Thanks mike.
Clarification–defense as I was using it in that post means pitching + fielding. It’s just straight-up runs allowed, with a park adjustment, compared to league average.
-j