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Reds starting pitcher Edinson Volquez had “Tommy John” surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament and torn flexor mass in his right elbow. Reds medical director Dr. Tim Kremchek performed the 90-minute procedure on Monday morning
That means Volquez could miss up to 12 months, which wouldn’t have him pitching again until late into the 2010 season.
Ouch.
Questions for which I don’t have an answer:
1. Can any of this be attributed to all the innings he threw in the 12 months previous to this season? (To be clear, I don’t think Dusty Baker can be blamed for that; he was pretty cautious, in my opinion.)
2. Could this surgery have been performed months ago, when Volquez first went on the DL, thus ensuring that Volquez would be back in action sooner? (I am a judge, not a doctor, so I don’t know the answer to that…but if this is another instance where the Reds dragged their feet or if there was an earlier misdiagnosis, it would irritate me to no end.)
UPDATE:
3. Does this mean that we are stuck with Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang? (I don’t mean to suggest that that is necessarily a bad thing, but I can’t see how they get traded now…which means there will be even less roster/payroll flexibility for 2010.)
4. Is Walt Jocketty still claiming that the Reds can compete in 2010?
I’m not a doctor (or even a judge), but I might go stay in a Holiday Inn tonight to help me answer those questions. My uninformed guesses now are:
1. Probably not. Agree with you on Baker’s handling, though I’m sure my Baker-hating friends will pounce. Plenty of reason to want Baker fired, but I don’t think this can be laid at his feet.
2. Possibly, but I think they were hoping for a return this year for EV. Still, one has to wonder…
2 – I either heard or read over the weekend (probably heard in the 2nd inning radio chat w/beat reporters) that the doctors gave Volquez the surgery or rehab option, with the caveat that you may still be on the operating table in two months. I don’t know what kind of odds they gave him for surgery prevention via rehab, but it would seem they need to reconsider this aspect of patient care. Almost every major injury is treated with delay/rehab, and I can’t think of many that were successfully treated this way.
Pitchers can start playing in 12 months, but it’s usually about 18 months until they’re back to pre-surgery form, isn’t it?
Do they Reds still move Arroyo or Harang for payroll reasons?
Also not a doctor, but
1. No, it could have more to do with Winter ball and the WBC. Or it also could just be one of those things that happen.
2. From a couple of weeks after he was hurt I felt that the handwriting was on the wall about Volquez…he wasn’t coming back (of course, that didn’t stop me from stashing him on my DL in the two fantasy leagues that I own him in). Did they not see the tears before?
on another depressing note, this baker quote made me puke. “Hanigan’s getting hits, he’s got a little more speed,” Baker said. “He can get some hits up there, you can hit and run. Gonzo doesn’t have the hits Hanigan has, but Hanigan doesn’t have the RBI Gonzo has.”
where’s fire joe morgan when you need them.
also, zach stewart, where’s he when you need him.
Gonzo doesn’t have the hits Hanigan has, but Hanigan doesn’t have the RBI Gonzo has.”
Please tell me you are joking. I cannot believe that a major league manager would say something like that. Al, c’mon. There are so many reasons why this statement is stupid that I will not begin to list them. Not even Dusty would have said something like that. Couldn’t have….Right?
Neither question has a knowable answer, in my opinion.
Here’s an opinion that might interest you: As a former naysayer, it appears to me in retrospect that it was a mistake to let Adam Dunn go. It was also a mistake to sign Willy Taveras.
I have lost faith in Walt Jocketty, though I have no doubt he has an up side.
tom groeschen tells it like it is:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090802/SPT04/308020029/1071/Lineup+tinkering+doesn+t+help
At least we’ll have veteran leadership next year.
I ain’t no front runner.
Yeah, the ONE full year that we have Rolen under contract, we now have lost one of our best pitchers.
Good thing we gave away some of the promise of 2011-2015 to make 2010 look so promising!
2011-15 will be awesome, with Roenicke as the closer and Stewart pitching behind Cueto and Voltron.
1. I can’t remember one time complaining b/c I thought Baker was leaving Volquez (or Cueto) in the game too long. On the other hand, he will roll Harang and Arroyo out for one too many innings every start.
2. I agree that it is very frustrating on how they seem to drag their feet with every injury. Taveras will be out 10 games b4 we DL him. And the way they handled AGon this year is unexcusable.
I doubt that we trade Harang or Arroyo now unless we can get a pitcher in return.
Though if we trade both of them, perhaps we can sign a free agent and try out a few of our youngsters. I guess Cueto is the only one assured now of a spot in the rotation next year.
I’m doing my traditional beginning of August ‘Reds giveup’ and looking forward with great expectation to the Bengals season.
My sports life bites.
1. I don’t think it’s Baker’s fault. I do think the WBC struck again.
2. I have no idea, but Carson Palmer’s injury comes to mind. He was said to need Tommy John surgery, but let his elbow heal and is allegedly 100%. I think rehab depends on the patient.
I don’t think the 2010 season is lost. We didn’t have Volquez for most of this year, and with the exception of a pitiful July, the Reds had stayed pretty close to .500. That said, I don’t know what this rotation is going to look like next season. Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and Owings is good, but not enough to compensate for this offense. I say you sink your money into the offensive guys in hopes to increase runs by 1-1.5 per game and hope the pitching stays at or above current form.
So a couple of questions, if anyone knows (these are going to be depressing): Will Volquez never be the same, even after recovery? Don’t most guys either gain or lose a little velocity? I can’t imagine Volquez would gain anything since his stuff was some of the best in baseball and would have to rely on more control and outhinking batters (something he has always seemed to struggle with).
This has been the worst week of following the reds I can remember.
Volquez came out of the game on June 1, which the Reds went on to win.
Reds record by month
11-10 April
15-13 May
11-15 June
8-19 July
0-2 August
“Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and Owings is good”
In my opinion, that is not a good rotation at all. There is very little chance that the Reds will compete for a division title with that rotation.
some people come back from Tommy John surgery fine and just as before… others struggle for a long time. Even if Volquez comes back next year in August and September, it’s doubtful that he’ll be the same pitcher he was before until 2011.
“What’s best for him now and in the future is getting him back healthy for next year,” Baker said. “I’m very concerned, but I also have full confidence in [Reds medical director] Dr. [Timothy] Kremchek and full confidence in modern medicine.”
I now think you have to consider the Stewart/Rolen trade criminal or at least insane.
I’m no doctor, but I’ve read a lot of Will Carroll (baseballprospectus.com) on this stuff. Here’s what I *think* I remember from him…
I think some guys heal fully after Tommy John surgery, and some even say they feel stronger. But even though they can be back in 12 months, they’re not really up to full strength til about 18 months after surgery. That puts us just about at opening day 2011.
I think it’s more the shoulder stuff (labrum, etc.) that is the “he’ll never be the same” injury for pitchers.
I will also be apoplectic if Cueto goes anywhere near Winter Ball.
I went to the Asst. GM Bob Miller’s live chat right at the beginning. I submitted half a dozen pointed but polite questions. None of them made it on. All the rest of the questions he did answer were softballs. I just wondered if anyone else asked good questions that did not get on. What is your experience of how often any hard questions get put up and answered. I, of course, don’t know if there are thousands of questions or just a few. I’m curious.
Before we give Dusty a free pass on pitching abuse with the Reds…we all think it wasn’t as bad as with Chicago, and that may be true…but, here’s a quote from Baseball Prospectus from last fall:
“Now, Baker’s reputation for handling a starting rotation is already about as sterling as Lindsay Lohan’s for showing up on time. Justifiably or not, his reputation is directly related to his handling of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, and their subsequent struggles. It should come as no surprise that four of his starters last season—Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Johnny Cueto—all finished in the senior circuit’s top twenty in pitcher abuse points.”
He may not have been as bad….but, there’s no way two young guys should have been mentioned in this paragraph….and there’s no way that Cueto and Bailey should EVER have given up nine runs in a game…we’ve 12-13 pitchers most of the year…
reds post-waiver trade candidates:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/08/03/post.deadline.trades/index.html?eref=writers
odd article in that it basically says that some of these players will get through waivers, but who would want them. sort of stating the obvious, no?
i think the reds should move arroyo and cordero if they can. fay says that castillini isn’t going to do a “full rebuilding,” but what option do you have now that volquez is out for most if not all of next year? 2011 seems like the first year we could realistically contend, so why pay anyone (rolen) for next year if you can develop young talent instead?
Man it was just plain common sense to anyone with a brain that once Edinson went on the DL the first time that he should probably shut it down for the year. I’m sure the whole process is not easy, but from afar I think most people thought he’s probably done for the year. Why they let him try to rehab 2 times makes you question this franchise.
Without a healthy Volquez they’ve got almost no chance in 2010 to compete in my opinion. Never say never, but they could hardly compete with him, so without him, that is a tall order.
Finally, I was in the small camp that wouldn’t have traded Hamilton for Volquez. I’m not totally faulting the Reds or even saying it was a terrible deal. Hamilton has been injured and not had a good year this year. You wonder if injuries will derail both of those guys careers. I still think Hamilton is gonna be great for a good number of years.. I actually hope both of them are, but I think I woulda hung on to Hamilton…moot point now though.
Can’t say I’m surprised. You just don’t roll a guy out there for as many innings as he pitched last year and not expect something like this, unless you’re the Reds.
I don’t think it was a “given” that he was out for the year, wasn’t the initial call “tendinitis”? That’s what I remember, anyway..and that’s no big deal…thus, if that is the case, another blown diagnosis for Team Hollywood.
I was fine w/ the deal. It was selling high on Hamilton, which I commend.
Also, at the time, we had Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, and Bruce. There was not room for all of them. And the pitching was TERRIBLE.
The most important things for the last month or two last year (and this year now) were…
–Trying some new stuff (learning about our players), and
–Protecting the young pitching arms, whatever that may mean (including possibly shutting down Volquez and/or Cueto).
Apparently we failed at both.
Volquez pitched 196 IP last year at age 24, and then pitched winter ball, and then pitched WBC.
Wow, in hindsight, it sure is a good thing that Volquez made those September starts last year, isn’t it?
Sept. 3 – 117 pitches
Sept. 8 – 119 pitches
Sept. 13 – 121 pitches
Sept. 18 – 111 pitches
Sept. 23 – 98 pitches
We won 3 out of those 5 games too. Good thing he pitched so that we could go 74-88 last year instead of 73-89 or 72-90 or something…
By the way, I’m not directly accusing Dusty of causing this injury. It could’ve happened anyway. There’s no way to know.
But pitching him full out in September of a lost season just seems – again – stubborn and short-sighted.
Why not pitch the heck out of Josh Fogg or someone who clearly wasn’t going to be here in 2009? Or give Affeldt some starts? There were options.
I don’t blame Baker, or even the medical staff. This stuff happens.
Now, trading for Scott Rolen when there’s a good chance Volton is seriously injured…
I keep thinking there’s no where to go but up from here. Then they slide even further. If Karma comes into play, this team must be in for total league dominance at some point in the future, because I can’t think of a single thing that’s went their way this year.
Well Votto has been hitting like Pujols, at like 1/30th the cost. That’s gone pretty well.
Trading position players for pitchers is always a risky proposition, but sometimes it has to be done. I don’t fault the Hamilton for Volquez, Herrera trade. I just wish the Reds luck was a little better than its been lately.
Edinson’s injury makes last friday’s trade even more short-sighted, disasterous, criminal, and reeks of cronyism. Walt should be ashamed and Bob should be livid, unfortunately I don’t think either are or will be. This fiasco just set the franchise back, and Dusty’s handling of pitchers, line-ups, and veteran preference will keep it down on the mat.
And yes, I do feel that Dusty is partly responsible for Volquez’s injury, Harang’s injury last season, and Cueto’s injury that is surely to follow. It’s not that Volquez pitched too many innings last year, it’s that Dusty allows all starting pitchers to struggle through disasterous innings that could last well over 30 pitches. These are arm-killers, especially if it’s coupled to a 120-pitch outing.
The medical staff has been around a while now, and I’m not sure what their success stories are.
Wander hit on something that most are letting go unnoticed.
Pitch counts matter…but, pitch counts per inning may be more important. The longer the inning, the more trouble the pitcher is in, the more stress the pitcher puts on the arm, and….the more stressful pitches he throws.
Do you think I’m still mad about the nine-run innings?
That’s Baker controlling the roster…if he doesn’t have a long man (well, he has Kip Wells now), he needs to designate someone as the long man and stretch him out.
Or, go to some sort of fabricated rotation where every reliever pitches to nine batters in a game; every hitter once so they won’t be overexposed.
Oh…I’d rather start Kip Wells and put Homer in the pen as the long man….
On the bright side today, Janish is actually playing tonight instead of Gonzalez.
Quick off topic question- Who is the most improved Red this season? I would say its between Votto, Weathers, and Hanigan.
[...] are a couple articles around the blogosphere about Edinson. Redleg Nation – Worst Case Scenario Bootlegger Sports – Edinson Volquez is Going To Miss Plenty addthis_url = [...]
Anyone see any irony to Mark Prior being released by the Padres organization today and Edinson’s surgery today.
3.) I don’t think it precludes moving Arroyo or Harang. I really don’t. The Reds still have a number of young arms. Thomspon (though injured), Ramirez and Maloney have already been up. Wood and Klinker would be the next two right? That’s replacement on at least Arroyo.
4.) I still think the Reds can compete in 2010. Odds won’t be as good as if they had Volquez, but they can still compete. Just adding Scutaro as a leadoff hitter at SS and playing Dickerson, Heisey or Stubbs over Taveras makes TOS turn quickly in to NTS – not too shabby.
Now that Dan posts the pitch counts for Volquez’s September starts I do remember that Dusty seemed crazily intent on getting Volquez 20 wins. That’s why he kept pitching him all the time and leaving him in games well beyond 100 pitches.
Well, having Harang hasn’t been a good thing for two years now. Keeping him won’t be, either.
Now some on here are blaming the injury on Baker. Come on! Her threw 191 innings last year not 270. The Reds had little control over the World Baseball Classic which should be dismantled. I will question the medical staff on this Volquez deal. How did they not find this earlier?
Well the namesake of “Tommy John surgery” came back and won more games after the surgry than before. Now TJ (a great Hoosier by the way) wasn’t able to throw hard enough to break a window pane afterwards but he was still very successful.
This injury really stinks and this franchise maybe cursed. Did the King Tut exhibit make it to Cincinnati?
It’s not just a matter of how many innings in a season.
Anyway, 191 innings for someone not used to throwing that many is a lot.
He pitched deeper into the game as the season went on, and newer studies are now showing lots of pitches in an inning may matter the most.
So, there’s three things to manage:
1) Seasonal usage
2) Game usage
3) Inning usage
And, every pitcher’s different.
Baseball Prospectus tracks “pitcher abuse points”…Volquez, Cueto, Harang, and Arroyo all were in the National League’s top 20 last year. Dusty may have lowered their innings, but he didn’t manage his pitching staff to spread the innings. The relievers were used in more specialty spots than throwing to additional hitters.
Part of that is because BP has somewhat randomly selected 100 pitches as the magic pitch count per game number.
I think Baker & coaching staff have done much better here than in Chicago with the young pitchers. My only complaint would be the couple of games where he’s had to go to the starters in extra innings. Yes, Volquez was one of those pitchers. I’d say racking up the innings and winter ball and the WBC were the biggest contributors to his injury.
When Volquez comes back in 2011, would you bring Volquez back in a bullpen/closer role ala Matt Morris or Ryan Dempster?
Interesting angle, Greg. Unfortunately you can’t get to your closer if your rotation is mediocre. A healthy voltron makes us solid, a rotation without him is bleh. If we could replace that production on the front end, your idea certainly would be worth entertaining. He might even be his own set up man and pitch two innings like the old school closers.
[...] • Redleg Nation thinks Dusty was actually "pretty cautious." [...]
[...] • Redleg Nation thinks Dusty was actually "pretty cautious." [...]