Since being a season best six games over .500 at 26-20, the Reds have won just 18 of their last 47 games. They are a season worst five games under .500 at 44-49.
That high point was achieved on May 30th.
21 comments to How long have we been kidding ourselves?
It’s the statistics normalizing and the luck wearing off. This team was never a +.500 team, and the baseball gods needed to throw a ice cold streak in to get the record back in line. Shame on them for teasing us.
Normally when I feel this way, I think I’m just being pessimistic, but in this case I think I’ve finally made some realizations/accepted some known truths.
1. The Reds, this year, suck. The offense is inept, the defense is just passable, the young starters are as inconsistant as you’d expect, Harang is good but not great, and Arroyo is as inconsistant as a young pitcher.
2. Dusty Baker is a truly bad manager. He has no business managing any team in MLB, and I can’t imagine he could EVER be part of a winner.
3. Brandon Phillips ain’t all that.
4. Joey Votto is going to/needs to be the face of this organization.
I saw a headline for the top 100 baseball players, right now. While I waited for it to load I tried to imagine what Red could possibly be on the list. After toying with the idea of a couple pitchers, I decided there was just one. Sure enough, Votto was #79. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/07/21/top.100/1.html
I love Joe Pos, but he has some weird ideas about players. There are tons of players on that list that Votto is better than. Maybe not that high, but Phillips and Bruce should probably be on that list somewhere. And a couple pitchers probably should be too. Greinke, Haren and Santana being ahead of Halladay is also retarded. as long as we’re going with straight value and not considering contracts (and still maybe retarded if we are). There are other concerns too, but I’m not going through the whole list.
I’ve mentioned it in two or three different threads, but I’ve thought all along that the May 29-June7 stretch against Mil, Stl, and ChC was the defining 10-game stretch of the season and that we were sellers at that point.
I didn’t want that to be true. I didn’t want to believe it was true, but they’ve done nothing to prove me wrong, yet. I have been pulling for them to prove me wrong.
They got to 6 games over .500 by sweeping the Astros in 3 games at home, outscoring them 20-10.
However, they followed that to get swept by the Brewers and go 3-7 overall in that 10-game stretch against those 3 teams ahead of them in standings.
They had a chance to rebound with 3 vs Was and 3 vs KC, but only won 2 of those 6 games.
Getting swept by KC (without Greinke on the mound, nonetheless)pretty much put me in denial: I knew down deep that we were pretty much finished, but like all good addicts thought I could quit (or rather the Reds could win)anytime I wanted to. It’s all just a phase…..
I just can think of Votto and Philips as current real ML level players. Everybody else in the roster is just not good enough or a prospect as much. I think they should try to rebuild the team for next year around those two guys plus the existing bullpen, beginning with the starting rotation (Arroyo, Volquez and Cueto are the only ones, have to wait on Stewart and Wood) and following with the whole left side (SS, 3B and LF). I’d give a shot to C Hanigan, RF Bruce and perhaps CF Dickerson. So it’d be Hanigan C, Votto 1B, Philips 2B, TBA 3B/SS/LF, Dickerson CF and Bruce RF. Have to wait on Heisey and/or Stubbs. All Baker, Harang, Hernandez, Encarnacion, Gonzalez and Taveras should leave right away. Others like Hairston, Gomes, Nix, Rosales, Janish, Owings and Bailey are just deadweight, no difference on payroll neither in results. Jocketty will be very busy next winter. See you in 2010!!!
This team just doesn’t have the horses in the starting 8. That’s especially true in the OF. Right now the only starters I wouldn’t consider trading are Votto, Phillips and Hannigan. The rest are easily replaced IMO.
Now… I’ll preface this by saying that I still am open-minded to Drew Stubbs… open-minded that he’ll hit enough. And I do really value the idea of a true, go-get-em, Gold Glover in CF.
Nonetheless, I stumbled across this thread (it showed up in the “random posts” area on the left).
Read the very first comment. It makes me sad.
By the way, so far the scouts have been dead-on about Stubbs, pretty much. You take into account the glowing reports and the negatives, and that’s pretty much him in a nutshell.
I am not sure Stubbs will ever be dominant, particularly since I am not sure his power will ever develop, but I also think he is far enough along he should be given a shot at this point.
As for kidding ourselves, I have to admit I am getting into what can we do to improve ourselves for next year mode. Selling high on some of the veteran relievers is starting to look very tempting to me.
Reliever Showcase
Tuesday night’s 12-3 blowout win over the Reds provided the Dodgers an up-close look at two of the relievers they reportedly are interested in acquiring. David Weathers pitched a hitless seventh inning with one walk, while Arthur Rhodes threw a perfect eighth inning with one strikeout and a fastball in the low-90s. The Dodgers also have interest in Cincinnati closer Francisco Cordero, who hasn’t pitched in the series. By completing a series sweep Wednesday night, the Dodgers could push the Reds a little closer to becoming a seller by the July 31 trade deadline. — Ken Gurnick
my thoughts on the reds season at the beginning were that they had to have everything go right for them to contend, meaning: weak central, stay healthy, play the best players, and play to potential.
we’ve been gifted the first, the central is weak. it’s amazing that we’re closer to first (in terms of games) than the braves are now, and they’re above .500 and in second place.
everything else has been a wash. we’ve lost our best starter for most of the season, our best hitter for more than a month, and our best right handed hitter for the first half. that right their could easily be 3-5 wins i think, which puts right in it.
we all know what dusty has done to this team, but just to drive it home: check out ops stats for qualified batters, and look at the bottom 25 in mlb. you’ll find three reds starters, willy, hairston, and hernandez (willy being at the very bottom). with seemingly better options than all of them, it seems inexcusable that these three have gotten the PT that they have, let alone hit 1 and 2 most of the season.
and then there’s the potential. bruce, bailey, arroyo, harang… the reds like every team have people below where they should be, they just can’t afford to.
watching this series, the reds aren’t even really close to being a top teir team. i say start with the manager and keep right on going, it’s time to get rid of some people.
Just wanted to add a few comments about the current season. First of all I do not like the current lineup Dusty puts out normally. I firmly believe Dickerson needs to be the everday CF along with Hannigan as the everyday C. As for the other outfield and other positions, I think we need Gomes in LF, Gonzalez at SS, EE at 3B, Phillips at 2B and Votto at 1B. The batting order I would have is Dickerson,Hannigan,Votto,Phillips,Gomes,EE,Bruce RF(when healthy)Gonzalez and Pitcher.I think the team has a lot of bright spots and potential. The starting pitching just needs to be more consistent and keep the main postion playees healthy. All in all if we can do that I think this team could be a winning team and perhaps win the Central but I think we will have to wait until 2010 to do that. I think we just need 1 or 2 more quality hitters in the mix to have a real chance of being a real winner. I have been a reds fan all of my life(41yrs) and still think the team has a lot of potential;just need to plat to our ability and be solid on defense and fundamentals. Thats my 2 cents worth on the current state of the team.
Greg – I agree with Dickerson in CF, but neither one of them should be there next year. And I definitely wouldn’t bat Dickerson leadoff. He’s not a good hitter. Unless I was Dusty Baker.
Of the 26 MLB batters who have 200 or more at-bats in the #1 spot, Dickerson’s 365 OBP would have him tied for 9th.
Current 9th ranking in OBP is Cardinal Skip Schumaker, who in 300 at-bats in the leadoff spot has attempted all of 3 stolen bases and been successful just once.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
RN Exclusives!
The Big Board -- In-Depth Reds Organizational Depth Chart (updated 2/23/10)
Salary Chart -- Our chart on the current and future contract status for the Reds roster (updated 2/23/10)
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It’s the statistics normalizing and the luck wearing off. This team was never a +.500 team, and the baseball gods needed to throw a ice cold streak in to get the record back in line. Shame on them for teasing us.
Normally when I feel this way, I think I’m just being pessimistic, but in this case I think I’ve finally made some realizations/accepted some known truths.
1. The Reds, this year, suck. The offense is inept, the defense is just passable, the young starters are as inconsistant as you’d expect, Harang is good but not great, and Arroyo is as inconsistant as a young pitcher.
2. Dusty Baker is a truly bad manager. He has no business managing any team in MLB, and I can’t imagine he could EVER be part of a winner.
3. Brandon Phillips ain’t all that.
4. Joey Votto is going to/needs to be the face of this organization.
I saw a headline for the top 100 baseball players, right now. While I waited for it to load I tried to imagine what Red could possibly be on the list. After toying with the idea of a couple pitchers, I decided there was just one. Sure enough, Votto was #79. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/07/21/top.100/1.html
I love Joe Pos, but he has some weird ideas about players. There are tons of players on that list that Votto is better than. Maybe not that high, but Phillips and Bruce should probably be on that list somewhere. And a couple pitchers probably should be too. Greinke, Haren and Santana being ahead of Halladay is also retarded. as long as we’re going with straight value and not considering contracts (and still maybe retarded if we are). There are other concerns too, but I’m not going through the whole list.
I’ve mentioned it in two or three different threads, but I’ve thought all along that the May 29-June7 stretch against Mil, Stl, and ChC was the defining 10-game stretch of the season and that we were sellers at that point.
I didn’t want that to be true. I didn’t want to believe it was true, but they’ve done nothing to prove me wrong, yet. I have been pulling for them to prove me wrong.
They got to 6 games over .500 by sweeping the Astros in 3 games at home, outscoring them 20-10.
However, they followed that to get swept by the Brewers and go 3-7 overall in that 10-game stretch against those 3 teams ahead of them in standings.
They had a chance to rebound with 3 vs Was and 3 vs KC, but only won 2 of those 6 games.
Well, he’s throwing out potential. He’s listing the best guys right now. Bruce definitely doesn’t belong on that list.
Getting swept by KC (without Greinke on the mound, nonetheless)pretty much put me in denial: I knew down deep that we were pretty much finished, but like all good addicts thought I could quit (or rather the Reds could win)anytime I wanted to. It’s all just a phase…..
I just can think of Votto and Philips as current real ML level players. Everybody else in the roster is just not good enough or a prospect as much. I think they should try to rebuild the team for next year around those two guys plus the existing bullpen, beginning with the starting rotation (Arroyo, Volquez and Cueto are the only ones, have to wait on Stewart and Wood) and following with the whole left side (SS, 3B and LF). I’d give a shot to C Hanigan, RF Bruce and perhaps CF Dickerson. So it’d be Hanigan C, Votto 1B, Philips 2B, TBA 3B/SS/LF, Dickerson CF and Bruce RF. Have to wait on Heisey and/or Stubbs. All Baker, Harang, Hernandez, Encarnacion, Gonzalez and Taveras should leave right away. Others like Hairston, Gomes, Nix, Rosales, Janish, Owings and Bailey are just deadweight, no difference on payroll neither in results. Jocketty will be very busy next winter. See you in 2010!!!
This team just doesn’t have the horses in the starting 8. That’s especially true in the OF. Right now the only starters I wouldn’t consider trading are Votto, Phillips and Hannigan. The rest are easily replaced IMO.
Now… I’ll preface this by saying that I still am open-minded to Drew Stubbs… open-minded that he’ll hit enough. And I do really value the idea of a true, go-get-em, Gold Glover in CF.
Nonetheless, I stumbled across this thread (it showed up in the “random posts” area on the left).
Read the very first comment. It makes me sad.
By the way, so far the scouts have been dead-on about Stubbs, pretty much. You take into account the glowing reports and the negatives, and that’s pretty much him in a nutshell.
Doh… silly me… here’s the link:
http://redlegnation.com/2006/06/06/first-round-pick-robert-stubbs-cf-u-texas/
I am not sure Stubbs will ever be dominant, particularly since I am not sure his power will ever develop, but I also think he is far enough along he should be given a shot at this point.
As for kidding ourselves, I have to admit I am getting into what can we do to improve ourselves for next year mode. Selling high on some of the veteran relievers is starting to look very tempting to me.
Just saw this on MLB.com
Reliever Showcase
Tuesday night’s 12-3 blowout win over the Reds provided the Dodgers an up-close look at two of the relievers they reportedly are interested in acquiring. David Weathers pitched a hitless seventh inning with one walk, while Arthur Rhodes threw a perfect eighth inning with one strikeout and a fastball in the low-90s. The Dodgers also have interest in Cincinnati closer Francisco Cordero, who hasn’t pitched in the series. By completing a series sweep Wednesday night, the Dodgers could push the Reds a little closer to becoming a seller by the July 31 trade deadline. — Ken Gurnick
Brad-Jay Bruce? Are you serious??? How could you put him on that list.
my thoughts on the reds season at the beginning were that they had to have everything go right for them to contend, meaning: weak central, stay healthy, play the best players, and play to potential.
we’ve been gifted the first, the central is weak. it’s amazing that we’re closer to first (in terms of games) than the braves are now, and they’re above .500 and in second place.
everything else has been a wash. we’ve lost our best starter for most of the season, our best hitter for more than a month, and our best right handed hitter for the first half. that right their could easily be 3-5 wins i think, which puts right in it.
we all know what dusty has done to this team, but just to drive it home: check out ops stats for qualified batters, and look at the bottom 25 in mlb. you’ll find three reds starters, willy, hairston, and hernandez (willy being at the very bottom). with seemingly better options than all of them, it seems inexcusable that these three have gotten the PT that they have, let alone hit 1 and 2 most of the season.
and then there’s the potential. bruce, bailey, arroyo, harang… the reds like every team have people below where they should be, they just can’t afford to.
watching this series, the reds aren’t even really close to being a top teir team. i say start with the manager and keep right on going, it’s time to get rid of some people.
There is no way Phillips and absolutely no way Jay Bruce should be on that list. That is laughable.
Maybe its not so laughable. Phillips is on the list. He is number 95. I think he deserves to be there (even with some of the antics).
Phillips is a top 100 player. Gold Glove defense is worth something, and he’s certainly serviceable at the plate.
Phillips is a top 100 player when he wants to be.
3 weeks ago he spent a solid week ranting about fans who thought we needed a few more players. Now he thinks the entire team needs to be retooled.
Just wanted to add a few comments about the current season. First of all I do not like the current lineup Dusty puts out normally. I firmly believe Dickerson needs to be the everday CF along with Hannigan as the everyday C. As for the other outfield and other positions, I think we need Gomes in LF, Gonzalez at SS, EE at 3B, Phillips at 2B and Votto at 1B. The batting order I would have is Dickerson,Hannigan,Votto,Phillips,Gomes,EE,Bruce RF(when healthy)Gonzalez and Pitcher.I think the team has a lot of bright spots and potential. The starting pitching just needs to be more consistent and keep the main postion playees healthy. All in all if we can do that I think this team could be a winning team and perhaps win the Central but I think we will have to wait until 2010 to do that. I think we just need 1 or 2 more quality hitters in the mix to have a real chance of being a real winner. I have been a reds fan all of my life(41yrs) and still think the team has a lot of potential;just need to plat to our ability and be solid on defense and fundamentals. Thats my 2 cents worth on the current state of the team.
Greg – I agree with Dickerson in CF, but neither one of them should be there next year. And I definitely wouldn’t bat Dickerson leadoff. He’s not a good hitter. Unless I was Dusty Baker.
Of the 26 MLB batters who have 200 or more at-bats in the #1 spot, Dickerson’s 365 OBP would have him tied for 9th.
Current 9th ranking in OBP is Cardinal Skip Schumaker, who in 300 at-bats in the leadoff spot has attempted all of 3 stolen bases and been successful just once.