Castellini will can them both soon enough.

I’m not arguing that the “youngsters” didn’t pan out; arguments could be made that they didn’t get their chance, that their at bats came against tougher pitchers, or their opportunities came after the other players were gone…or, frankly, may be they weren’t even prospects. A lot of the guys in Neyer’s book weren’t necessarily prospects, they were 4A players who were in their prime which probably could have offered more than a player on the downward slide.

The chapter isn’t long and I can’t quote all of it, but there are some real doozies…

1) Start with the first quote I mentioned above…”a player doesn’t reach his peak unil he’s somewhere between thirty-two or thirty-six and beyond”

2) With Cubs, 38 year old Lenny Harris bats 146 times with a .183 BA and an OPS of 484

3) Shawn Estes, the Cubs fifth starter posted a 5.74 ERA in 28 starts; Estes was 30…24 year old Juan Cruz was on the team and started six games; 24 year old Todd Wellemyer didn’t start any

4) Baker quote: “(Mark Bellhorn) has been programmed, before we got him, by the A’s. Their philosophy is taking a lot of pitches and getting deep in the count. Most times, I notice guys who come from the American League to the National League weren’t used to being aggressive and took a lot of pitches. It’s going to take time to change your mind-set.” (which league scores more runs?)

5) Neyer’s article (co-written by Jason Brannon), says “Time and again, (Cubs GM Jim) Hendry would promote or trade for a player only to have him languish on the bench. Rather than order Baker to play Choi or Bellhorn, Hendry seemed to adopt a strategy of moving players Dusty didn’t favor, and bringing in ones he didn, whenever possible. Thus, Randall Simon, Jose Hernandez, and Tony Womack were acquired, and Bellhorn was jettisoned (this pattern repeated itself in 2005, when Jason Dubois was traded to Cleveland.) Choi, who barely played in September ’03 and was left off the roster for both of the Cubs’ postseason series, was sent to the Marlins in November, in a challenge trade for Derrek Lee. That deal obviously worked out, but most such transactions, made not so much to improve the team but to indulge the manager’s predilections, did not. In this way, Baker had de facto control over the roster.”

6) “hard to understand why Tom Gooddwin was allowed to step up to the plate 184 times in 2004. he was thirty-five and absolutely punchless (.200/.254/.276) in what would turn out to be his last season. It seems like a lot of ballplayers end their careers as Cubs. Rey Ordonez also played his last season with the Cubs in ’04. he was worse than Goodwin.”

7) “Does Dusty know the difference between a good ballplayer and a bad one? His handling of Todd Hollandsworth would suggest he does not….a fine fourth outfielder…had a nice season in limited duty for the Cubs in ’04. But after losing Moises Alou to free agency, Baker, resisting, all entreaties to play Jason Dubois (who’d smacked fifty-seven extra-base hits with Iowa the previous year), stretched Hollandsworth into a regular role in ’05, one for which he’d spent many years proving he was ill-suited. Around the time Dubois was thrown overboard, Matt Murton, a superior outfield prospect obtained from the Red Sox in the Nomar Garciaparra deal, was 1) promoted to the majors and 2) essentially ignored by his manager. Despite Murton’s hitting .337/.396/.505 at three levels in 2005, it wasn’t until Jim Hendry sent Hollandsworth to Atlanta at the trade deadline that Murton given the chance to play that he’d already earned.”

“His odd penchant for Proven Veterans adds a complicating element to the job. Instead of simply hiring or promoting players who might help your team, Dusty’s general managers must also wonder….Will Dusty play Jason Dubois or Mark Bellhorn or Ronny Cedeno? Or will he bench them in favor of older, lesser players like Todd Hollandsworth or Neifi Perez, whom Dusty viewed in 2005 as some sort of savior, ‘I hear a lot of people say, ‘Hey, put Cedeno in.’ What am I supposed to do, push Neifi out now? This guy has saved us.”

In review…how many Cubs names can you replace with Reds names here? Notice…Neyer didn’t even mention the pitching staff…he mentioned giving players chances…Dusty, as we know, “ain’t no front-runner” and it appears that, while some Cubs/Giants prospects/younger players may not have panned out, did Dusty intentionally not give them opportunities?

That’s exactly how it appears to me. Murton and Dubois were both considered big prospects, but weren’t athletic in nature. Hollandsworth was athletic and had earned his opportunity. Perez was an experienced shortstop, Cedeno was unproven. Dusty doesn’t like using young relievers and was happy to pitch Josh Fogg last year no matter how poorly he pitched, or who may be around to take his place.

So…Dusty just doesn’t play the guys he doesn’t want to play (Paul Janish). He sticks were poorly playing centerfielders (Patterson, Taveras), and over the hill shortstops who have saved us (Gonzalez). He buried Hatteburg last year after Votto won the starting job…all of the sudden, he couldn’t hit either because he was rusty.

Gomes/Nix are similar players to Dubois….it’s taken injuries to everyone breathing for Dusty to, first, let them on the team, and, secondly, play them.

Stubbs would not play if called up….

2008 – Hatteberg is having a great spring and Votto a terrible spring. Votto makes the club, which surprised some. They split the first 10 games started. Votto is batting .235 w/.471ops and he starts playing almost every day. In fact 134 of the remaining 152 (though 8 of those 18 days off were bereavement leave when his father passed away…so 134 of 144 games he spent on the roster)

Phillips?
Spent all of 1992 in AA. 497ab, 32bb, 165k w/686ops

1993, as you mentioned they had Will Clark. Phillips was promoted to AAA. 506ab, 53bb, 127k w/833ops

1994, Phillips spent most of the season in AAA again. He played in 15 MLB games in June.
- AAA: 360ab, 45bb, 96k w/1013ops
- MLB: 38ab, 1bb, 13k w/361ops

1995, Phillips spent full year on the Giant roster. He started 29 of the first 32 games. He hit .101 w/426ops. Carreon played most the rest of the year batting .301 w/833ops.

IMO Phillips is yet another case that illustrates that strikeouts & k/bb ratio in the minors DO matter.

This is a thing that concerns me about a number of the Reds current prospects.

Chris Dickerson RF
Willy Taveras CF
Joey Votto 1B
Brandon Phillips 2B
Laynce Nix LF
Ramon Hernandez C
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Jerry Hairston SS

I think this guy has been on every team Dusty’s managed, hasn’t he?

The Reds, alas, are who we thought they were: A team with some young but talented starting pitchers, a quality bullpen, two (now one) very good young left-handed hitters, overrated defenders, no leadoff man, no shortstop, no cleanup hitter and a manager who fills out highly questionable lineup cards.

I predict the Reds will win 76 games and finish ahead of Houston and Pittsburgh, who are both terrible. We’re just slightly less so.

Choi? He was playing about 5 of every 6 games until he went on the DL in early June with a concussion (he got tangled up with Kerry Wood, landed flat on his back and hit the back of his head on the ground. I still remember that scene on Fox Sat game of the week.) At the time, he was batting .239 w/.845 ops. Karros spends June & July hitting .338 w/900ops. Choi’s back off the DL at the beginning of July, but Baker doesn’t sit the hot bat. Playing about 1 game per series, Choi bats .172 w/550 ops. They traded him for Derrek Lee, which turned out to be a HUGE steal.

2005 – Cedeno, Murton, and Dubois? They’ve all gone on to be as successful as Choi.

Cedeno and Murton did both play fulltime under Baker in 2006. Cedeno played all of 2004 in AA and started 2005 in AAA. Murton spent most of 2005 in AA and made the jump over AAA to the majors for 140 at-bats that year.
In 2006, at age 23 and 24 respectively, Cedeno and Murton played fulltime. Cedeno with a 610ops and Murton 809. Both saw their playing time cut significantly in 2007 under Pinella.

1993-94 Giants: 1b J. R. Phillips was considered a big prospect at the time, but didn’t pan out. Playing ahead of him? Will Clark filed for free agency after 1993 season; instead of playing 24 year old Phillips who had hit 27 AAA homers in 1993, Dusty played “sluggers” Todd Benzinger and Dave Martinez (I guess Martinez was the Ramon Hernandez of that team…Martinez was a good defensive outfielder). Phillips hit 27 more homers in AAA.

1996 Giants: Now playing Mark Carreon at 1b instead of yound David McCarty or Phillips; Giants traded away young SS Royce Clayton to play younger SS Rich Aurilia, so Dusty played Shawon Dunston half the time;

1997 Giants: Now playing ss Jose Vizcaino instead of Aurilia; benched 27 year old youngster Marvin Benard for 32 year old Darryl Hamilton in OF;

2001 Giants: catchers Edwards Guzman and Bobby Estalella can’t get playing time ahead of 36 year old Benito Santiago;

2002 Giants: catcher Yorvit Torrealba can’t play ahead of Santiago;

2003 Cubs: 1b Hee Seop Choi stuck behind Eric Karros;

2005 Cubs: ss Ronny Cedeno stuck behind SS Neifi Perez; of Matt Murton and Jason DuBois stuck behind OF Todd Hollandsworth;

The flip side of course is that I think to a certain extent Dusty really hasn’t had a great pool of young talent to work with prior to coming to the Reds. The Cubs and Giants were not stocked with young players.

You can’t forget that Votto has been an everyday player and that Dusty chose to play Votto over Hatteberg.

I find it interesting that Baker is accused of over-using young pitchers and under-utilizing young position players.