Comments on: Lance McAlister’s 25 year Reds All Star Team

By: mike

mike — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:37:55 +0000

Steve I was thinking the same thing about Casey, Morris and McCormick
The Reds had typically had good 1B but not typical 1B. Higher average hitters who slug less

I noticed this yesterday, check how ridiculously similar these are and in particular A, C and D

Player A: .301/.350/.437
Player B: .271/.361/.416
Player C: .305/.371/.463
Player D: .305/.362/.444
Player E: .309/.363/.418

these players played at very different times in baseball with different levels of production. If we adjust for that the OPS+ comes out super close for most of them
120 (A), 115 (B), 114 (C), 114 (D), 114 (E)

These players?
McCormick, Driessen, Casey, Morris and H Hendrick all Reds 1B

looking at baseball-reference’s similarity scores
Morris is similar to McCormick by age at 4 different ages
McCormick is Casey’s 2nd most similar player
Morris and Casey both show up on McCormick’s simlar player lists

These players were good with the Reds but are in the 2nd group behind Chase, Reilly, Klu, Perez, and Beckley

By: mike

mike — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:26:15 +0000

Bill, understood. One of the difficulties of picking some sort of all-stars or all-time teams is playing time vs peak value vs overall production.
Pinson points out exactly this problem with Jimenez. His hitting for his short amount of time was more productive than Phillips when looking at a rate stat, but really, so what. Phillips is better on defense and has produced at his rate over a longer period of time.

I always have difficulty weighing total production vs a rate. For example Win Share totals, which show Boone and Phillips as the most productive 2B over the last 25 years vs something like RC/Game which show Walker, Doran and Duncan as at least the most productive hitters over the short period they played.

There are numerous examples.
Kevin Mitchell, Josh Hamilton, Duane Walker, Ron Gant, and Votto who during their short time as Reds have produced at a higher rate than most
vs the long time Reds during the last 25 years
Larkin, Davis, Dunn, Jr and Casey

The fun part is most of us have seen these players play a lot. So most of us have vivid memories of just how great Mitchell and Hamilton, for example, were in their short time.

By: Steve Price

Steve Price — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:18:38 +0000

Casey and Morris both wanted to be Frank McCormick

By: Bill Lack

Bill Lack — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:15:14 +0000

Mike, my problem with your second base choices are that Walker played 221 games for the Reds, Doran 260, and Duncan 299. I think being a member of the team for a reasonable amount of time should be part of the equation. Also, Phillips defense is vastly superior too both Walker and Duncan and even Doran.

And I’m not a big Brandon Phillips fan.

By: pinson343

pinson343 — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:31:59 +0000

So D’Angelo Jimenez was a better hitter than Brandon Phillips ???

By: mike

mike — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 04:29:17 +0000

one more thing

where Casey and Morris the same person?

By: mike

mike — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 02:12:49 +0000

a little more data since I find picking the best 2B of the last 25 years difficult

Here are the Reds 2B since 1983 with at least 600 PA and their RC/Game adjusted for league average

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA
1 Bill Doran 0.55 4.92 4.37 933
2 Mariano Duncan 0.41 4.99 4.58 903
3 Todd Walker 0.31 5.41 5.10 964
4 D’Angelo Jimenez -.13 5.07 5.21 1102
5 Brandon Phillips -.35 4.86 5.21 2242
6 Luis Quinones -.47 3.82 4.29 615
7 Pokey Reese -.72 4.87 5.58 1213
8 Ron Oester -.77 3.69 4.46 2703
9 Bret Boone -.82 4.27 5.09 2711

and now adjusted for positional average
RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Todd Walker 0.78 5.41 4.63
2 Bill Doran 0.74 4.92 4.19
3 Mariano Duncan 0.48 4.99 4.51
4 D’Angelo Jimenez 0.17 5.07 4.90
5 Brandon Phillips 0.02 4.86 4.84
6 Luis Quinones -.33 3.82 4.15
7 Bret Boone -.38 4.27 4.65
8 Pokey Reese -.48 4.87 5.35
9 Ron Oester -.62 3.69 4.31

of course it’s difficult to figure out how much defense would change the list of players

By: mike

mike — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 02:02:03 +0000

I decided to do a little research into the Reds 25-Year-Team. The team I listed above was off the top of my head. I thought it would be interesting to see the Win Share leaders for the Reds in the last 25 years at each position and I was surprised what I saw. This is total Win Shares (not Win Shares Above Average) so playing time has a major effect.

1B: Casey
2B: Boone (I think this is a combination of playing time and defense, He has 35 hitting WS and 25 fielding WS and Phillips is at 33/16)
SS: Larkin
3B: Sabo
LF: Dunn
CF: Davis (nobody even close)
RF: O’Neill (slightly ahead of Parker and Sanders)
C: LaRue (!?!? Oliver and Taubensee where 8 win shares behind)

Starters
Rijo
Browning
Harang
Arroyo
Harnisch

Relievers
Franco
Graves
Dibble
Sullivan

By: preach

preach — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:13:20 +0000

Joey Hamilton, wow. the memories.

By: mike

mike — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:48:23 +0000

by the way, here are the 15 most productive Reds (defense not included) adjusted by position in the last 25 years

RCAP RCAP
1 Barry Larkin 488
2 Eric Davis 189
3 Adam Dunn 118
4 Ken Griffey Jr. 109
5 Kal Daniels 81
6 Kevin Mitchell 76
7 Eddie Taubensee 55
8 Reggie Sanders 39
9 Chris Sabo 38
10 Joey Votto 32
11 Bip Roberts 27
T12 Ron Gant 26
T12 Felipe Lopez 26
T14 Javier Valentin 16
T14 Josh Hamilton 16

and least productive
RCAP RCAP
1 Juan Castro -72
2 Todd Benzinger -69
3 Ron Oester -58
4 Pokey Reese -52
5 Lenny Harris -47
6 Jeff Branson -37
7 Joe Oliver -34
8 Billy Hatcher -33
9 Corey Patterson -30
T10 Deion Sanders -29
T10 Michael Tucker -29
T12 Bret Boone -28
T12 Reggie Taylor -28
14 Curtis Goodwin -27
T15 Eddie Milner -25

and the pitchers
RSAA RSAA
1 Jose Rijo 177
2 John Franco 80
3 Scott Williamson 61
4 Jeff Shaw 55
5 Rob Dibble 52
6 Aaron Harang 44
7 Scott Sullivan 43
8 Pete Harnisch 42
9 Danny Graves 39
10 Jeff Brantley 38
T11 Elmer Dessens 36
T11 Norm Charlton 36
T11 Rob Murphy 36
14 Bronson Arroyo 33
15 Frank Williams 30

and for those with sensitive stomachs you might want to look at this next list of worst pitchers
RSAA RSAA
1 Kevin Jarvis -53
2 Eric Milton -49
3 Jose Acevedo -48
4 Ryan Dempster -46
5 Tim Pugh -38
6 Jack Armstrong -36
7 Paul Wilson -31
8 Frank Pastore -29
T9 Todd Van Poppel -28
T9 Josh Fogg -28
11 Joey Hamilton -25
T12 Brian Reith -24
T12 Gary Majewski -24
T14 Brandon Claussen -23
T14 Jimmy Haynes -23

By: mike

mike — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:42:25 +0000

I don’t like a lot of the picks. Plus if we are picking all positions why not pick 5 starters? Browning over Rijo is a joke.

My 25 year all-Reds team (off the top of my head, no research)

1B: Votto
2B: Todd Walker
SS: Larkin (the easiest pick and probably MVP)
3B: Sabo
LF: Dunn (by a mile)
CF: Davis
RF: Reggie Sanders
C: Taubensee
Utility Player: Bip Roberts
Honorable Mention: Jr
Best Individual Season: Larkin 1996

SP
Rijo
Harang
Harnisch
Dessens
Volquez

RP
Franco
Williamson
Shaw
Dibble

I think that’s a good team and GREAT bullpen
the problem over the last 25 years has not been the good players. It’s been these players

1B: Benzinger
2B: Oester
SS: Castro
3B: Branson
LF: Howard
CF: Patterson/Taylor/Milner/Winningham/Taveras
RF: Bichette
C: Oliver
Honerable Mention: Reese
Worst Season: Patterson 2008 (Taveras is close)

SP
Jarvis
Milton
Acevedo
Dempster
Pugh

RP
Hamilton
Reith
Ayala
Scudder

and lastly here are the Reds rank by position over the 25 years
RCAP
383 1st SS (!!!)
76 6th LF
67 9th CF
-73 18th 3B
-77 19th C
-121 23rd RF
-158 22nd 1B
-203 27th 2B
-251 20th Pitching

By: pinson343

pinson343 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:18:10 +0000

Mario Soto was great, but his best years were 1980 thru 1984.

Agreed that Oester does not belong. Piniella made sure that he was not his starting 2nd baseman.

By: preach

preach — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:33:10 +0000

I think a list of the worst in the last 25 years would be… something. It might be difficult because of all the contenders. That post would be very special.

By: preach

preach — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:29:20 +0000

Ah, good call on Bip Roberts. He slipped my mind. Duncan and Boone are definately ahead of Oester on my list. I really liked Doran and wished he had spent more of his career with the Reds.

By: Dick Bronson

Dick Bronson — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:22:25 +0000

I guess the talent hasn’t been shocking over 25 years, but your team is also gonna suffer if you’re polling WLW listeners. SInce when does not being afraid to get in someone’s face equal worthiness for an all-star team? Oester was a solid 2nd baseman, especially for the mid-80’s, but I’m pretty sure he only played two full seasons with solid numbers past 1985.

Besides B. Phillips he also should be behind Bip Roberts, Mariano Duncan, Brett Boone, Bill Doran, Juan Samuel, and possibly Pokey Reese.