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Time for a recap of today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 7
NY Mets 9
WP: Pelfrey (7-4)
LP: Harang (5-9)
S: Rodriguez (23)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–None. Absolutely none.
NEGATIVES
–Aaron Harang and D**** W*******, primarily. No one was good. For all of Dusty Baker’s constant preaching about fundamentals, the Reds play like a high school team far too often.
ETC.
–When the Reds came into town on Friday, the Mets were the recent laughingstock of the National League. They were losing, and fielding a AAA lineup. Well, Reds fans, they just beat our guys two games out of three. Who’s laughing now?
–After losing 7 of their last 10 games, limping to the end of the first half, the Reds are in fifth place. Are there still some of you out there who think they are having a good season?
–The Reds finished the first half three games below .500. If they play the second half three games under, that will be a final record of 78-84. About what we all expected before the season, wasn’t it? Even the most hopeful among us thought a .500 record would be the upper limit for this team.
So, even though this team is, frankly, painful to watch most nights, they are probably right where they should be. Most of us thought 2010 was the year they should be ready to compete. No reason to be too disappointed about where things are right now…except for the fact that we have to watch this ugly brand of baseball for another three months.
–Hurrah! The All-Star break is here!
I am officially bummed. The Reds are 5-8 on the 20 game streak that started with Arizona ends against the Dodgers… and leads up to the trade deadline. Color me disappointed. I feel any moves that get made now have to only be concerned with next year. I feel this is especially true with Bruce out. A trade to add something this year and this year only just doen’t seem logical at this point. Even our most reliable arms (Cueto and Harang) are flailing at a critical time. It’ll be an interesting month. Looking forward to the All-Star game though.
Season 0 – Reds Management 1
They are in a position now where you can’t really legitimately expect them to make a move. I’d love to see them add a guy like Scott Rolen, but it wouldn’t be enough.
The pitching pitching carried them most of the first half, but now even it’s proving to not be that great. Aaron Harang is not an ace in any stretch of the imagination when it gets down to it. He would be a nice 3-4 starter on good teams. Cueto and Volquez have to be the ace type of pitchers for this squad in the future. And Volquez possibly may not not do much the est of the year health wise.
It’s interesting how quickly things can fall apart. I’d like to think they fall apart the last month or so. But in reality, they are just rounding into the team they really are.
The Milwaukee series will probably be one of the final nails in the coffin. There’s just not much potential for growth with this team right now.
Another stinky year to be a Reds fan? It appears so. There is hope in the minors, but will they ever put it together and win 85 games or so? It’s hard to tell.
How does Rosales being recalled help this team in any way? There’s plenty of gloves out there. what’s needed is a bat.
I hope that management can do an objective analysis at the end of the season. I think if they can then they will see that Baker and most of the coaching staff have to go. As Chad and others have pointed out numerous times, this is not a fundamentally sound baseball team. Some of that is due to acquiring the wrong players, some is due to having players out of position, and some of that is due to it being given lip service but little else.
There is going to continue to be an influx of young players coming up to this level. It is important that they receive proper coaching when they get here.
BTW, what is everyone’s thoughts on Votto’s ejection? Had he just had enough of questionable balls and strikes the past week of play?
In terms of Harang, I think he’s better than a 3-4 starter.
I’ve studied his stats and I don’t see a peripheral dropoff.
Given that his ERA isn’t that good, he wouldn’t bring as much
in a trade to a contender that we’d deserve, so I’d suggest
just keeping him for next year.
I’m just going to scream if these idiots make a trade to try
to make the playoffs. The BP odds have them at 3% for division
champs, 1% for wildcard. Getting Pujols wouldn’t increase the
3% to much beyond 15%, I bet, and whoever they’d get sure as hell
wouldn’t be nearly as good as Pujols.
I think Rosales was a move a one day move, as it cost nothing but a plane ticket and a days wages, as away to give Dusty some play room. I think trade possibilites and other moves will come in the next three days.
Trade deadline will be fun only to see who we get rid of and who we get back. Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Massett and perhaps Dickerson are untouchable. Everybody else should be available.
From MLBTradeRumors:
“It’s been a while since we last checked in on the playoff odds. Lots of teams say they expect to contend, but let’s take a look at which teams have fallen out of the pennant race. These clubs have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Reds – 4.5%
Astros – 4.4%
Blue Jays – 2.8%
Pirates – 0.9%
Royals – 0.8%
Indians – 0.5%
Diamondbacks – 0.3%
Athletics – 0.3%
Orioles – 0.0%
Padres – 0.0%
Nationals – 0.0%
None of these teams are close and eight of them have less than a 1% chance. It would take a surprisingly good second half for one of these clubs to make the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean the Reds and Astros are sellers, since they’re close enough to contention that firesales would be tough to justify to the fans.”
With Bruce likely to miss most of the rest of the season, I’m wondering if the Reds should buy low on Alexis Rios. He’s owed $59 million through 2014 ($71 million if his 2015 option is exercised), but that linked FanGraphs article suggests that he’d be paid below market value.
The Reds need help this year, with or without Bruce, and Rios can play RF and (gasp) CF for the next five years. His perceived value is pretty low now, but he’s a two-time All-Star in the prime of his career.
Annapolis, I agree with your untouchable list, with one exception: I thought I was Massett’s biggest fan on this site, but I think it might be time to sell high on him. If we could get a prospect with more upside I’d sell him in a second.
I have several disagreements with that untouchables list, and Masset is tops. Masset has never pitched this well anywhere, anytime. I would deal him now. His value will NEVER get higher.
Off Annapolis’s list, I would only say that these players are untouchable: Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey.
If you can get parts that will improve the team over the next three years, I can’t imagine any reason not to deal Hanigan, BP, Masset, or Dickerson. Three of those guys are spare parts, and the other isn’t as valuable as people think he is.
Actually, now that I think about it, I would remove Volquez from the untouchable list. I would deal him in the right trade.
And really, the question on Phillips isn’t whether he is good or not. It is whether he will be worth $6.75M in 2010 and $11M in 2011.
…waiting to hear from the “nobody thought we’d be in it” guys.
Is anyone besides me ready to trade Francisco Cordero? I mean I know he’s our only all-star, but if a contender is willing to take most of his ridiculous contract off the payroll, I would jump at it. To be a small-market team and pay a closer that much money (making cincinnati’s bullpen the most expensive one in the MLB) doesn’t make much sense
Why didn’t DB come out sooner to protect Votto ? He just sat on his butt to watch him get tossed.
I can’t take much more of Taveras in CF, it’s depressing.
Dusty says we’re not going to bring up Stubbs and Heisey, let them learn fundamentals first: “If they’re going to make mistakes, let them make them there.” And how about the mistakes Taveras makes game after game ?
Yes.
I love CoCo, and he’s been great. It’s so nice having him out there.
But with the money he’s making, combined with the fact that closers are an overrated, overvalued commodity, I’d see what I could get for him. As I’m going to keep saying for the rest of July, if he can help us obtain a part that will contribute to a winning Reds team over the next three years, I’m all for it.
The Blue Jays plan on keeping Rolen through the end of the season, according to their assistant GM. So those rumors can finally be debunked, hopefully.
I’d rather leave Stubbs and Heisey in Louisville rather than bring them up too early.
I think Bruce should have been sent back down last year after he so severely cooled off.
I don’t think the Bailey starts should have been trumpeted to so much fanfare.
Let the kids be kids…the minor leagues are for learning…when they reach the majors, work them in slowly.
Face it, like it or not, replacement level players are so-named to be replaced when the young guys come along, or a better replacement level player becomes available.
I agree with Steve about Bruce being sent down last year. He was brought up too fast because the team sucked so badly and wanted good press.
I disagreed with Steve about Dunn being brought up early, as it was defense that was his issue, but Steve had a point. It’s not a perfect science as to when to pull the trigger, but Bruce didn’t walk enough at AAA. In the case of Stubbs and Heisey, they aren’t nearly ready.
I don’t like this anymore. Somebody make it stop.
Drew Stubbs shouldn’t be brought up until Willy Taveras is traded. They are somewhat the same player (except Drew walks more and Willy strikes out less). Well Stubbs probably plays better defense.
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090712/SPT04/307120017/1071/Stubbs++Heisey+might+not+be+ready
Don’t count on Stubbs or Heisey according to this. The shocking thing is I actually agree with someting Dusty says in this article, scary. The whole thing about ESPN and not recognizing the Reds except for when something like that 22-1 game happens. I totally agree. I hate ESPN because every single time they show a pitcher highlight, they ALWAYS show them striking out Reds. Really, pay attention next time they do it, at least a third of the highlights are against the Reds…I have even noticied them showing AL pitchers striking out Reds even if they only play them once every couple of years. Thank goodness for MLB network…it has really cut down on me having to watch all NYY/Bos highlights on ESPN…since apparently those are the only two teams that matter to them.
Massett was a starter before. Perhaps the pen is more to his liking. I think he has closer stuff and is cheap. You are right about Phillips, Dickerson and Hanigan. I take them off the list. I disagree about Volquez.
Chad, you have left me a bit confused. You ask if anyone thinks the Reds are having a good season and then go on to explain why the Reds are having a good season by meeting expectations.
While I think the Reds are having a good season, the last ten games combined with losing Bruce (which I still think is a blessing in disguise) should make this team sellers from a business perspective. Guys I can see being dealt are Harang, Gomes, and Rhodes.
And yes Chris, the Reds are still in it. They are 5 games back at the All Star break and anything is possible. The Cards could lose Pujols. The Reds could trade for a couple impact players.
I don’t think those notions are mutually exclusive at all.
1. The Reds are NOT having a good season.
2. But they are still meeting my expectations (I don’t think anyone expected them to have a particularly good season), and making progress toward being a competitive team in the future.
3. Thus, there are reasons for optimism.
But this team isn’t going to win anything this year, and as soon as Walt figures that out, the organization will be better for it. Any moves he makes need to be to shore up the team for the next 2-3 years, not the next 3 months.
The Reds could trade for a couple impact players.
They made it sound like Derosa’s salary was close to the limit of what they could take on. If that’s true, I think adding a couple of impact players is unlikely.
And I do think the Reds are technically still in the race, but they’re in fifth place. No way in the world can they pass four teams. That’s not realistic, in my opinion.
But, technically, they aren’t out of the race yet.
Right, mathematically in the race. Plus, the Reds won’t be the only ones making moves. Those teams ahead of them will also continue to try to add impact players.
Back to the comments about whether any of the Reds minor leaguers are ready to play in the big leagues…do they need more seasoning or are they “paying their dues”?
Sometimes I think players are kept down too long because GM’s don’t want to risk promoting a player too early.
C’mon, Greg. Don’t you know Stubbs and Heisey need to chill and marinate?
Bruble… I have seen that ESPN typically shows the Reds being struck-out during highlights too. It’s been happening for the last several years and it’s way beyond chance numbers. I’m glad someone else noticed it, I thought I was just sensitive. :emotion:
Heisey blurb in Sporting News Today:
http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20090713/?pm=1&zin=175&u1=texterity&sub_id=D1F1033BF0s7D&pg=6&z=97
I don’t want to see Hanigan going anywhere. Good catchers are valuable and I have a feeling he could be one of the best. he’s already better than many and he’s still young
I won’t get into who’s untouchable but suffice to say we need to allocate payroll in a more realistic fashion. Trading Cordero will have minimal impact on our ability to compete now and later. The money saved will improve payroll flexibility immensely, allowing you to acquire that big outfield bat so sorely needed. Then you have to look at moving either Harang or Arroyo to make room for Bailey (thank goodness we have Maloney as insurance or this wouldn’t be possible). With the money saved on one of those contracts, you lock up your young guns. Finally, you gotta move Phillips to short. This is the right baseball move to make. Decent second basemen are a dime a dozen, good hitting good glove shortstops are not. It may not get you to the playoffs, but it leaves you with the flexibility to do some things if and when these young guys get it together.
Guys I lean against moving: Rhodes, Harang, Phillips.
Guys I lean toward moving: Weathers, Hernandez, Arroyo, Cordero, Masset (if only to avoid giving him a Lincoln-type contract in the offseason)
According to McCoy, Bruce will be out six to eight weeks:
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2009/07/13/reds_bruce_expected_to_miss_68.html#postcomment
Better than it could’ve been, I guess.
Chad, I guess it just comes down to what the definition of a good season is. I mean if you expect the Reds to go .500 and they end up 16 games below .500 they had a bad season. If they finish 16 games above .500 they had a great season. Going .500 makes it an average season; however, I think that the team has accomplished more than I thought without some key players (EdE, Votto, Volquez) so at this point I’m giving the Reds a bump this year.
I have never understood why it is impossible for a team to pass four teams ahead of them. The Reds are five games back. It doesn’t matter how many teams are ahead because none of those teams are more than five games up.
I have never understood why it is impossible for a team to pass four teams ahead of them. The Reds are five games back. It doesn’t matter how many teams are ahead because none of those teams are more than five games up.
I understand what you mean, from a purely logical standpoint, but it is harder than sitting five games back from second or third place. The reason being, it requires a swoon from all four teams ahead of you during a hot stretch of your own. More variables must fall into place.
1 – I’d saying comparing a team’s performance to expectations and having a good or bad season are mutually exclusive things. A team could be expected to win 70 games, win 75, and still have a “bad season” relative to the rest of the league. They performed better-than expected, but it’s still a losing season.
I could see the perspective that it is a good season relative to expectations, so it depends on how you are defining “good”. Good relative to the rest of baseball? Good relative to where you expect them to be? Good relative to where you want them to be?
2 – It is not impossible for a team to climb over 4 teams. However, you have to not only win, but you need all 4 of the other teams winning less games than you.
How many wins is the magic number for this division? If it is 87, the Reds have to win 45 of their last 75 games, a .600 Wpct. AND the Cardinals have to win less than 38 (.535) AND the 2nd place Brewers have to win less than 42 (.568). etc
The Cardinals have played at a .538 clip for the first half of the season. It is not difficult to see them match that in the 2nd half and win 87 or more games, especially if they add a hitter and/or pitcher.
Willie Taveras got 3 hits.
“I have never understood why it is impossible for a team to pass four teams ahead of them. The Reds are five games back. It doesn’t matter how many teams are ahead because none of those teams are more than five games up.”
That’s mostly true, at this point in the season. And the 4 teams ahead of us don’t have to swoon, we’re not that far behind them. We just have to play well, as in getting 10 games or so above .500 (few of us see that happening).
The ‘73 Mets were in last (6th) place going into September, but only 6-7 games out, then played well in September and won the East division with a paltry 82 wins.
The number of teams ahead of you does become important very late in the season. When those teams play each other, one wins as the other loses, they’re not all going to go on losing streaks.
Also first place can change hands if the team in first place loses, so you don’t necessarily pick up a full game when you win and the first place team loses.
When two teams are tied for first and playing each other, you don’t gain ground in terms of GB when you win, and you definitley lose ground when you lose.
To put the above more concisely, when you’re in 2nd place your mathematical elimination number just depends on how far you are behind the 1st place team.
When you’re in 3rd place or below, it also depends on the schedules of the teams ahead of you: i.e. how many games they have against each other.
GregD (43) very clear explanation of how being in 5th place is relevant to our odds of winning the division at this point.
The Reds’ management should not be buyers in the sense of making a Scott Rolen kind of move, giving up young talent for an old and expensive player on a gamble he’ll get us into the playoffs.
But they shouldn’t yet be sellers either. A winning record would be meaningful (to me anyway) even if we don’t get into the playoffs, and we’re not really out of it yet.
They should look for trades that will make the team better this year and next year.
The biggest hole is at SS (where unike CF Dusty has no good choices).
What would it take to get Scutaro ? Are there other SSs we could realistically get who would help ?