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Time for a recap of today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
St. Louis 10
Cincinnati 1
WP: Carpenter (6-3)
LP: Arroyo (8-8)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–A lot of people have been saying for a while that Josh Roenicke is a major league talent. I think I’m a believer. He has done nothing but get people out since joining the club about three weeks ago. I think Roenicke is in the big leagues to stay. (And yes, I probably said that about Ryan Wagner once upon a time, too.)
NEGATIVES
–TOS*
–Bronson Arroyo has been a complete disaster lately, and the Reds absolutely must get him out of the starting rotation. Now. Today, with the Reds trying to win a series that they have to win if they really want to contend, Arroyo laid an egg. He allowed 11 hits and 8 runs (5 earned) over five innings. His ERA is just shy of 6, and he has been shelled in each of his last three outings.
–For the sake of all that is good and pure, learn how to throw a stupid baseball, Edwin Encarnacion.
ETC.
–I don’t know if it’s the carpal tunnel that’s bothering Arroyo, but he need to be placed on the DL, and Matt Maloney needs to be recalled to replace him. I like Arroyo more than most of you, it seems, but he’s killing the team right now.
–Not much else I can say about this one. The Reds never even had a chance from the beginning (thanks, Bronson). The Reds showed in this series why they aren’t serious contenders for the NL Central crown.
–On the road next, for a seven game trip to Philadelphia and New York that will culminate with the All-Star Game. Congratulations to Francisco Cordero for being selected as the Reds representative to the game. It’s a well-deserved honor.
*This Offense Stinks.
Man 7 in Philly and New York could be disaster. Let’s hope the wheels don’t completely fall off.
What has to go well for the Reds on this road trip? They obviously gotta get some solid pitching in Philly. I think we really need Phillips to heat up too. We’ll see what happens I suppose.
I hadn’t considered Arroyo being injured, but i guess with the carpal tunnel that is a very real possibility. It’d be too bad because I think he is a big component to this team’s success this year. Not sure Maloney is ready to be a decent major league pitcher, but maybe he would be better than Arroyo now.
Another game that Baker gave away by allowing Arroyo to pitch. Plain and simple. It isn’t like Arroyo has only lately had these troubles. It’s been this way since the second half of his first season as a Red. I don’t think that it’s necessarily Carpal Tunnel – look at his performance. It’s been consistently bad for some time. Except for the last 2 months (or a smidge more than that) last season – AFTER the Reds were out of contention completely. If they put him on the DL, it would appear that they’ll trade Harang. If he stays active, at least the Reds may be able to work a deal out for him. I have no reservations on Maloney coming back up. Or let’s allow Homer to audition for next year by giving him valuable experience??? Daryl Thompson, perhaps. There are many options. I just wish the front office would stop trying to convince the fans that this is the BEST team they can put on the field. Just my take. But I don’t even bother watching on Arroyo’s starts. Ok, I tell myself that and everytime I watch only to find out I should have abstained!
Arroyo’s ERA+ with the Reds
ERA+
142 2006
110 2007
95 2008
78 2009 (not including today)
during this time his H/9 IP has gone up
and this year his SO rate is WAY down. He’s striking out 4.8 per 9 IP
I thought, since Arroyo has some bad luck last year (high BABIP), with the Reds improving their defense a good bit that Arroyo would be the one who gained the most but this year his SO rate is so low and he’s allow so many hard hit balls.
Looking at fangraph’s pitch values, Arroyo has one of the worst fastball in baseball. Only 4 pitchers are worse
and get this, Arroyo is fooling NOBODY. Batters are making contact on 92.8% of pitches he throws in the strike zone. Only 2 pitchers in baseball allow a higher contact rate of pitches in the strike zone. But worse, he’s a junk ball pitcher and only 9 pitchers allow more contact to pitches outside the zone.
Glad I didn’t torture myself watching this game today. If they don’t DL him then they obviously have NO plans of competing this year and it’s on to next year….yet again :poke:
Something’s going on physically with Arroyo. About three or four starts ago he was the best I’ve ever seen him but since then he’s just been terrible.
I’ve known a couple of guys with carpel tunnel, both had to have surgery. I talked to one today. He said he didn’t know how anyone with carpel tunnel, even a mild condition could even hold a baseball let alone have any control over where it was going. The way he explained it to me was that by the time you have symptoms, you’re already past the point of gripping a baseball.
Sorry I missed this. I was at America’s largest beer garden, cheering the Cubs to victory over the division leaders. Sorry you guys didn’t do your part.
Saw Bob Uecker driving his Yukon out of the ballpark, and Mike Cameron (good guy) climbing on the Brewers bus, which was cool.
Cubs fans have their faults, but it’s hard to think of a better place to spend a sunny afternoon.
“I was cheering the Cubs to victory”
eeewwwww. That makes me sad.
It wasn’t very enthusiastic cheering, if that helps. I didn’t leave my seat or anything. I just made the game-time calculation that the Brewers were the bigger threat, both short- and long-term, and I’d prefer that they lose.
Like the Taveras situation, it’s pretty obvious outside the manager’s office. Arroyo was out there throwing batting practice today. DL him. I have no idea if there are temporary solutions to get him through the end of the season or not. Like mentioned above, the folks I know who had this, had to have surgery to relieve the pain.
Another example of Thom not liking Bruce today. And why I hate the Thom + Jeff combo…because Jeff just usually agrees with him and piles on. Thankfully, Chris was in the booth today to help balance out the Brennaman negativity. Bruce gets a slow curve inside (ball I believe) then Bruce fouled off the next pitch. It was a fastball tailing away from him. Thom starts in on him for not hitting the fastball. (WTF, I’m thinking, we’ve gone from being critical in at-bats to individual swings?) Chris steps up and pretty much shuts Thom up by explaining that “it’s easy to sit at home on your couch in front of your wide screen TV and think the fastball is the size of a beach ball and an easy pitch to hit. But you’ve got to realize coming off the hand of Carpenter, who had just thrown him a 60-something mph curveball inside, that a 90+ mph fastball outside and tailing away looks like a baby aspirin to Jay Bruce.”
Thom skirts the issue the rest of the inning by talking about how he took baby aspirin recently.
Arroyo said after the game that he is fine. If Bailey continues to pitch like he did on Friday and Arroyo continues to suck then Arroyo needs demoted to the bullpen when Volquez returns.
My thoughts exactly, Y-City Jim.
Yep… then our bullpen can no longer be number 1 in ERA
Is Jonny Gomes still on the team?
I don’t think he is….he could hit
It’s a joke that Cueto wasn’t picked for the NL All-Star Team.
quote:
“it should be up to players, managers, people ‘in the know’”
:poke:
Bronson should be on the DL, Maloney has pitched well since going back down & is the logical choice,he’s on the 40 man roster already, Romon Ramirez is also pitching well and on the 40,Tohmpson is on the dl..Also LeCure is a option I guess…….It’s hard to understand how a team this poor on offense can let Gomes ride the pines…EE looks lost out of the gate!! JHJ has done well at short, so far….Hanigan it would seem has earned more pt, however after the last few years of Reds catching I’m ok with things as they are….Let’s hope Joohnny C. is on his game tomorrow night.
Y-City Jim: Re: Cueto not making the all star team….
I think Cueto is RIGHT ON THE FENCE
first, let me say, the all-star game selection is an absolute joke, as is the all-star game, as is the HR contest, as is the HOF, as is the lineup Dusty @W#%#E$T Baker decides to throw out there.
Lets get on to an-honest-attempt-at-the-truth. And as someone who posts to this blog taught me a long time ago, sometimes an all-star is just who the fans like, NOT who performs best.
If we base the all-star game starting pitchers on THIS SEASON and only THIS SEASON only who would be in the all-star game? Good question…
E(W): Haren, Lincecum, Cain, Gallardo (he didn’t make it!), Marquis, J Johnson (FLA), Lannan (Was) (he didn’t make it), Billingsley, Duke (Pit)
SNVAR: Haren, Lincecum, Johnson, Cain, Gallardo, Jurrjens (he didn’t make it), Vazquez (Atl), Davis (AZ)
How bout if we base it on the last two seasons?
Lincecum, Haren, Santana, Dempster, Cain, Jurrjens, Web, Hammels, Billingsley
and how bout if we base it on career in the NL?
Randy Johnson, Oswalt, Webb, Zambrano, Carpenter, Peavy, Hampton, Lincecum, Cain
I guess in the end, I don’t think Cueto should have made it. He is one of my favorite Reds, hands down(!!), but I don’t think he’s gotten to the point of all-star this season. But I also think this is nearly impossible to argue. Based on this years performance, this and last years performance, performance since the last all-star game, or career??? I have no idea. All that I think is important at this point is that Haren and Lincecum, hands down the two best pitchers in the NL right now strike out or get ground outs from every AL batter that comes to the plate.
The paradigm MLB has setup is complex and messed up. What is an all-star? It’s nothing more than a break for players mid-season and a chance to sell advertizing.
You think the HR representatives for the NL will be; Pujols, Chipper, Dunn, Berkman, and Howard? They are the leading active NL HR hitters, why wouldn’t they be? Oh right…
I’m going to turn this into a long post. The NL Central is weak. I’m not even sure the division leader is a true contdender for the wildcard. The Reds, despite being in, what 5th place (how many teams are there in the Central?) are still “in it” as the Clear Channel robots and mouth breathers like to say.
So who would be the NL CENTRAL all-star team based on ONLY THIS SEASON?
1B: Pujols (Stl)
2B: PHILLIPS (REDS)
SS: Tejada (Hou) take your pick between Ryan (Stl), Theriot (Cubs), Tejada, or Wilson (Pit). It’s a tough call.
3B: LaRoche (Pit)
RF: Pence (Hou)
CF: Cameron (Mil)
LF: Braun (Mil)
C: Molina (Stl) next would be Hanigan!
Honorable Mention: Fielder (Mil)
Starters
Gallardo (Mil)
Wainwright (Stl)
Cueto (Cin)
Duke (Pit)
Wandy (Hou)
Carpenter (Stl)
starters are a really tough call. Pinero, Maholm, Lilly, and even Harang could be on that list.
Relievers. This one is easy
Franklin, Cordero, and Sampson (Hou)
The only choices for Reds were for sure, Phillips, Cueto and Cordero
I think the starters chosen over Cueto are just fine and Cordero was selected the question really comes down to Phillips and we could go on for weeks as to if he deserved it.
one other thing. go ahead, pick the 5 best starters in the Central this season…..It isn’t easy.
Here is a GREAT discovery
Can you name the only 2 Reds since the BRM to produce at a higher rate in a season than Jonny Gomes?
That’s almost 30 years of Reds baseball, which included Daniels, Davis, Sanders, Larkin and Dunn
I should have mentioned, before you answer do you realize how he’s been hitting?
.333 batting average
.427 on base %
.587 slugging
with a min of 80 PA for a season and adjusted Run Created per game here are the 10 most productive hitters based on average production. Note the RCAA for those who played a full season and kept producing
RUNS CREATED/GAME YEAR RC/G PA RCAA
1 Joey Votto 2009 11.61 201 26
2 Kevin Mitchell 1994 10.61 380 46
T3 Jonny Gomes 2009 10.38 89 10
T3 Kal Daniels 1987 10.38 430 50
5 Kevin Mitchell 1996 9.76 141 14
6 Chris Dickerson 2008 9.72 122 12
7 Eric Davis 1987 9.57 562 56
8 Jon Nunnally 1997 9.38 231 22
9 Barry Larkin 1997 8.72 276 20
10 Reggie Sanders 1995 8.55 567 49
The only players in Reds history to produce at that rate over a season with at least 300 PA?
RUNS CREATED/GAME YEAR RC/G PA RCAA
1 John Reilly 1884 11.86 467 72
2 Cy Seymour 1905 11.49 643 92
3 Joe Morgan 1976 11.38 599 89
4 Joe Morgan 1975 11.14 639 85
5 Charley Jones 1884 11.07 519 69
6 Bug Holliday 1894 10.72 557 32
7 Kevin Mitchell 1994 10.61 380 46
8 Mike Donlin 1903 10.40 563 59
9 Kal Daniels 1987 10.38 430 50
10 Frank Robinson 1962 10.03 701 82
11 Charley Jones 1885 10.01 517 50
and the greatest offensive seasons ever by Reds (I don’t care what position you play, just mash the ball)
RCAA YEAR RCAA PA RCAA
1 Cy Seymour 1905 92 643 92
2 Joe Morgan 1976 89 599 89
3 Joe Morgan 1975 85 639 85
4 Frank Robinson 1962 82 701 82
5 John Reilly 1884 72 467 72
6 Charley Jones 1884 69 519 69
T7 Pete Rose 1969 66 728 66
T7 Ted Kluszewski 1954 66 659 66
9 Joe Morgan 1974 64 641 64
10 George Foster 1977 63 689 63
I don’t know if I agree that this series showed we aren’t contenders in the NL Series. We should have could have have would have won the series without a rare bullpen meltdown or a not so rare bad decision by Dusty to pitch to Pujols. I don’t think this series proved anything except it is time to put Arroyo on the DL
Chris-Comment #6. I totally agree. Wrigley Field is the best and second place isn’t even close. Every game there has a big game vibe to it. I have been to almost every park including old Yankee and Fenway and Wrigley is far and away the best place to enjoy a game.
Comment #10-Sounds like this board. There are people on here that critical on every pitch too. I don’t think he dislikes Bruce and you have to admit Bruce at the plate has been a disappontment this year.
The single to Carpenter was brutal. Bronson has pitched a lot of innings the last five years and I am wondering if it has caught up to him. He doesn’t have an “out” pitch right now and as Mike’s pitch stat data in #3 shows he can’t make anyone miss. Maybe they are just trying to get him to the break, but he needs to come out now.
I think Cueto continues to pitch like this and he’ll be on the all-star team next year. The string of “bad” starts in June – three consecutive starts allowing 5 runs – probably sunk whatever chances he had.
Doesn’t Arroyo go through a period of dropped velocity every year? If they DL him now, he may only miss 1 start, though they’d need to do something after the break. Leading into the break, they’d need someone to take his start vs. the Mets. He’d be eligible to come off the DL on the 6th game after the break, so they’d need someone else to make one start.
Re: Thom & Bruce – Folks here aren’t broadcasters/media. Folks here don’t gripe about every pitch. Thom was on Bruce all weekend, both offensively and defensively.
I think we are poised for one of those patented Reds’quick fades into obscurity. I am only a little bit disappointed since I did not think they would contend at the start of the season. At this point I’d rather see the Reds ride it out, evaluate the young guys, and not mortgage the farm system for a couple of months of a player that will likely prove futile in attaining the playoffs. There are too many holes on the big league club for even a guy like Holliday to pull this team into the post season.
With the Reds facing 4 lefties this week, be prepared for the lazy, inaccurate comments from the media this week about the Reds struggles vs. LHP. That has been not been true for the past season and one half:
Overall they are 40-40 this year.
28-28 when a RH starts
12-12 when a LH starts
This year, vs all LH pitchers (not just starters) they
are hitting .267 w/.732 ops
vs all RH pitchers .244 avg w/.709 ops
Last year, when they had “too many LH bats” they were
30-25 when a LH started
vs all LH pitchers .257avg w/.756 ops
44-63 when a RH started
vs all RH pitchers .243avg w/.716 ops
You gotta feel bad for Nix and Gomes. These guys can’t even sniff the field because Dusty is bending over backwards to let Taveras play his way out of his slump. And yet in the end, he’s still not good enough to be the starting CF.
It will be quite interesting to see how Homer and Bronson pitch until Voltron returns. I gotta think it will take a complete meltdown for Bronson not to stick in the rotation, even if it is just to raise his trade value. It really looked like Homer turned a corner Friday night, though. Dude was still bringing it 96 in the 8th inning.
FWIW, Gordon Beckham was taken one pick behind Alonso last year. He’s a natural shorstop and is hitting well for the ChiSox already. Kinda wish we had him right about now.
Yeah, well you guys just wait until Votto and EdE get back! oh wait….