Loading ...I realize that Adam Dunn is no longer on the Reds, but Rob Neyer’s ESPN blog today directs readers to another blog that discusses the value of Adam Dunn versus the newly acquired National, Nyjer Morgan.
I wish defensive statistics could be truly valued at this point. When I watch the sports highlights, I always prefer the defensive moments, and when I was a child I dreamed of making a great defensive play to end the game rather than hitting the game winning home run.
So, personally speaking, I do find it odd for myself to constantly argue in favor of the offensive player and offensive stats, but those figures are much easier to quantify and justify rather than the statistical and observational value of defense.
There’s too much variation of interpretation of defensive statistics, and I mean analysis derived from the same information, for me to take the info seriously. The analysis of the same player using the same derivative information can vary wildly, and I still have to wonder about the impact of BABIP….because it sure seems to me that a screaming line drive would be much harder to reach than a can of corn flyball…but, they seem to be valued the same. (I still remember Marty Brennaman on the radio warning the listeners about his fear for the infielders and their families as Tom Browning was nearing the end of his career and line drives were screaming off the bats from opposing hitters…)
Anyway, here’s a link to the article comparing Dunn to Morgan:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/morgan-dunn
And, here’s a link to an article that questions the validity of UZR as a defensive metric, despite it being possibly the most accepted defensive analytical tool currently used:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/suzr_v_buzr/
Both articles come from what I’ve found to be respected baseball writers…
I think baseball is pretty unique in that offensively, you have hard numbers you can look at that can tell you pretty cut and try how good your team will be on that side of the ball.
It seems like the skill GMs and managers need is in managing the contracts and keeping yourself within your budget, almost as simple as plugging in the best guy you can afford at each position with little regard for what type of player they are. In other sports (I’m thinking of football here) you need to be concerned with the type of system you’re going to run, and a quarterback with a career 100 passer rating may be absolutely no good for your team. If your baseball team is missing a power guy and you end up getting a guy with no power but a .350 AVG, you’re probably going to be just fine.
So, uh, I think where I started was that I kind of equate fielding statistics to any statistic in just about any other sport. It’s not so cut and dry and you have to be subjective. For the most part it looks like defense is largely ignored by the public. A player is as good as their offense, and their defense is just a “by the way.”
On BABIP: There are people who break it down further and do a BABIP for line drives, fly balls, and ground balls and those things have norms in the same way regular BABIP does. Obviously, you can guess which of those has the highest average.
Just confirms what I have always believed: The only way to truly judge defense is by scouting. It’s hard to gauge statisically the angles fielders take on balls (which affect holding runners and turning doubles into singles, or outs), hitting the cutoff man, arm strength, athleticism, etc.
When we signed Willy T and the comments were made about how solid he is defensively, I questioned that because primarily due to the angles he took in the field. He is often confused by the ball coming off the bat and while his speed can make up ground sometimes, he is often in a bad position even when he makes a play. I watched him quite a bit in Houston and Colorado and it is a trait of his. Do I have a metric for it? No. Is it nonetheless true? Yes.
I agree with you that the best highlights are the defensive ones. It’s a thing of beauty to watch a tremendous effort on a catch, a perfect throw to the plate, or a successful decoy of a runner. It’s just hard to to the math on it.
Most people will believe whatever statistics fit their existing opinions. If you think Dunn stinks, you’ll believe the stats that say he stinks. If you think Dunn is awesome you’ll believe the stats that say he’s awesome.
Defensive stats are fine, if you use them correctly. They aren’t hardlined, but if you take a strong sampling of the better ones (UZR, Dewan’s +/-, PMR and Justin’s +/- using both ZR and RZR) they give you a pretty strong baseline for how good/bad a defender is. Its also unlike offense, where you need a very large sample to get a strong idea of it. A month or two of defensive numbers don’t always tell us much, where that much offensively can tell us something. A full year or twos worth of defensive data is usually best to look at.
I think this article is spot on. I like Adam Dunn, I have him on any fantasy team I can get him on and would do the same if I had an American League team (they would say Big Papi who?). But the running and defense part of his game counteracts the offense in the national league as does his dollar value.
I, too, think there’s something in the defensive stats, but I’m not convinced that enough bias can yet be removed to make “outsider” definitive statements.
I don’t think it’s too hard to establish the best and the worst, but I’m not certain as to what extent one player can make a difference, and I do think a lot of that “impact” can be be maximized or minimized with proper lineup and roster construction.
One thing that does seem certain is that for most players, playing beyond the age of 30 means a decline of defense. Speed and good quickness helps. So, if the Reds are playing Dunn and left in Griffey in right, that can be a VERY good thing…if they go and get a Cesar Geronimo type to play centerfield. Frankly, it’s not that hard to find Geronimo types if the team wanted to find them (kind of like good fielding middle infielders, back up catchers, and relievers…)
I’m not an Orioles fan, but Earl Weaver knew how to win. He told his pitchers…..throw inside to right handed hitters, and outside to left handed hitters…since Brooks Robinson was at 3B and Mark Belanger was at SS. He had speedy Don Buford in LF and flycatcher Paul Blair in CF….he had aging Frank Robinson in RF, big Boog Powell at 1B, and hitting 2B Davey Johnson.
Defensive problem solved with good pitching and proper roster construction….
doug I think you summed it up perfectly.
oh and I read a study recently that showed you don’t need a large sample size to know one aspect of hitting…you just need a large sample to get an idea of overall production.
The study showed that you only need 50 plate appearances to get an idea of a players power. Actually what it showed was that if a player with almost no track record hits HR and has a high SLG that you only need 50 PA to know that that player can hit for power. What you don’t know is if a player doesn’t hit for power that they will continue to not hit for power. Hmm..hope I’m being clear here.
Oh and on this threads topic of Dunn. His defense seems to have gotten worse this year and i really have to think it’s because Washington has a larger OF. In other words sort of the opposite of the scenario Steve mentions above. You imagine how valuable/dangerous Dunn would be if he was a DH? There is not a single DH who has generated as many runs as Dunn so far this season. He would be the BEST DH in baseball right now
also along the lines of what Steve mentioned above. Dunn is not a good 1B either but he’s better at 1B than LF. Playing him there would minimize is deficiencies.
I think this boils down to putting your players in a position to succeed and putting the best team on the field, which includes where they play.