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Time for a recap of tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 8
Cleveland 1
WP: Owings (5-8)
LP: Huff (3-3)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Smilin’ side of the scoreboard! The Reds are now back to .500.
–How about Micah Owings? The Reds fifth starter pitched into the seventh inning, and he only gave up one run on five hits. Very nice work.
–More offense today, which is nice. Multiple hits for Brandon Phillips (3, plus 3 RBI), Jay Bruce (2, including a double…against a lefty!), Ramon Hernandez (a homer short of hitting for the cycle; 3 RBI), and Willy Taveras (!!!). Jonny Gomes hit a homer, and seemed to crush the ball every time at the plate.
–Two superb scoreless innings of relief by Daniel Ray Herrera, giving up one hit and striking out three. Brilliant. The little guy continues to perform.
–Yes, Hernandez hit a triple. Prepare for the apocalypse.
NEGATIVES
–None. Great game.
ETC.
–Happy birthday, Brandon Phillips!
–The Reds need to find out a way to start Gomes at DH every game on the upcoming homestand.
–Fun game to watch. I love beating up on the Indians.
–The Reds are still closer to last place than they are to first, but almost everyone else in the division lost today, so the Reds made some progress. That’s all we can ask each day.
–What do you think, Jonny?
Jonny Eat Indian Pitching For Breakfast
I have a feeling that every time Willy T is really on the ropes, he’ll get three hits, and Dusty will keep playing him, and then Willy will go two weeks and get on base three times. I hope I’m wrong. Hopefully, he’s due for a real hot streak. As bad as I think he is, he’s had to have been a little unlucky over the last month or so.
Taveras still hasn’t had a walk since May 23.
and he has only scored five runs in the month of June.
For now Dusty is starting Dickerson against righties. Let’s hope that continues.
We’ll see on Tuesday against Haren.
The ovation for Votto on Tuesday should be something to behold. I’m tempted to go to the game to experience it.
That ball Jonny hit was a ripped line drive. If it had not goneout it was going to put a whole in the wall.
Owings was all over the place and got pretty lucky IMO. Indians had a couple chances early to jump on him and did not.
And this was the first time I have seen him in person, but does he always pitch that slowly? Seemed he was taking forever between every pitch, hitters kept stepping out, with all the pitches hye was throwing it felt brutal.
Finally, and the Indians just did want out of there at that point, but Roenicke looked good in the 9th. Fastball was 94-95 on the stadium gun, threw at least one good slider, and another pitch (splitter?) high 80s that was effective.
Fun game, and a pretty good number of Reds fans at the park.
Way to go Redlegs! Another Ohio Cup means bragging rights for 11 more months.
A transcript of Phillips’ postgame interview:
CLEVELAND WRITER: Nice day for your birthday.
BRANDON PHILLIPS: “Is it my birthday? Just another day. Another blessed day.”
REDS WRITER: “You didn’t know it was your birthday?”
BP: “Today is just another blessed day.”
CW: “Have you been feeling better the last couple of days? Any difference?
BP: “Why, do I look different or something?”
CW: “No, just…have you, uh, did you feel better than the last few days?”
BP: “When did it start? When are we talking about?”
CW: “You’ve been struggling a little bit lately…”
BP: “I’ve been struggling? Really?”
CW: “Well…I don’t know.”
BP: “Any positive questions? Anybody got a positive question?
RW: “Was it nice to do this against a former team?”
BP: “Yes, it is. That’s a positive question. It’s good to do something positive, a game like I had today, especially on my birthday, you know what I’m saying? Especially with a win for the team. I’m glad we won the game. We should have swept ‘em, but we’ll take two out of three.”
RW: “Nice to see the team get 28 hits in two games after…”
BP: “That’s another positive question. Yes, it is. We were hitting the ball where they weren’t, where they can’t catch it. Everybody came through. I got a key hit today. And Micah Owings, he did his thing today. It was all about M.O. He did his thing today. Probably was the best game he ever pitched.”
What an a-hole.
Slick Willy is bound to have a 3-hit game every now and then, and long stretches of horrible games in between. Since Dusty will NEVER get rid of him, he’ll always be “on the ropes” when he has a good game.
Yeah Willy has moved his BA into the .230’s. I wonder if Dusty’s noticed Dickerson’s into the .270’s.
based on projected at bats for Taveras for the season, he would have to hit .300+ the rest of the way to get to to his career average, .277. In general, things “usually” even out over the season unless WT is still nursing a hammy injury. Given as bad as he has been in June, hopefully WT has a hot July of hitting. else reds will be sellers near the trade deadline.
The media is going to burn Brandon Phillips to the ground. He started this crap with Trent Rosecrans a couple years ago, but Trent was big enough to let it slide. They don’t even have to do anything but print his words verbatim. He’s a great ballplayer, yes. But “more importantly,” I can’t say he appears to be a “great human being.”
GRF: Yes. Owings is that slow, and that annoying to watch in person every time.
Trent didn’t let it slide with BP, not on his blog the first half of its first year. For one thing, he said that BP has a lot more to say to good looking female reporters. He also went on for weeks about how the Reds have 24 nice guys on the roster. This lead to a guessing game on his blog, where BP was an easy guess.
But after a while he treated BP well on the blog.
Jim, I wish I could be there for Tuesday’s game. Reds fans should fill the place and will no doubt give him a long ovation his first time at bat.
That nite I’ll be taking in my first game at the new Yankee Stadium, rooting for Griffey Jr. and the Mariners. (I always root against the damn Yankees.)
The Cleveland reporter could have been a little more prepared, as in saying that after you aggravated your thumb injury in the 10-8 loss to the White Sox, you went 1 for your next 18. Then BP would have said he doesn’t believe in slumps.
Do the Reds have 13 pitchers & 12 position players now?
Good points, Pinson. Trent did ride BP for a while, then just stopped. Never sure if that was a Trent Decision, a Post Decision, or a BP-stopped-being-an-ahole decision.
Also true about the reporter. The sports media (like the political and business media) consists of quite a few lazy hacks. That said, BP was going to do what BP was going to do. The reporter’s lack of immediate statistical support for his premise (“you’ve been struggling a bit” = .172 AVG in the 8 games before the Cleveland series) was just an excuse.
GregD, you have bad numbers. The Reds have 13 pitchers, 11 hitters, and 1 Willy. (I suppose Richar is arguable, himself).
This has to be the most power-deficient roster since the dead ball era. I think there are, at most 4-5 guys on this roster who could hit 20 HR, given a full season.
Bruce
BP
Votto
Gomes
Nix
Then you have 10-15 HR guys
Dickerson (Career best = 14)
Ramon
Then a huge pile of peewees
JHJ
Willy
Richar
Hannigan
Janish
Chris depending how you define “power-deficient” I don’t think it’s even close.
Yes the 2009 Reds offense is terrible but they don’t compete with the late-20/30s/early-40s Reds who were one of the most power deficient teams in the history of the game
The 1929 and 1930 Reds offense was TERRIBLE! and among the most power deficient teams since the dead-ball-era. Arguably the 1963 Astros were the most power deficient team since the dead-ball-era. Team SLG of .301 with a league average of .380. Wow!
Here are the worst Reds SLG vs league average since the dead-ball-era
SLG YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Reds 1929 -.065 .379 .443
2 Reds 1930 -.064 .400 .464
3 Reds 1933 -.055 .320 .375
4 Reds 1951 -.054 .351 .405
5 Reds 1931 -.050 .352 .403
6 Reds 1932 -.049 .362 .412
7 Reds 1928 -.045 .368 .413
8 Reds 1934 -.044 .364 .408
9 Reds 1945 -.044 .333 .377
10 Reds 1950 -.042 .376 .418
I should also note that during the 30s the Reds did not win. The Reds finished no higher than 5th from 1927-1937 and were only over .500 once during that time. It is by far the darkest days for the Reds. But this current stretch is starting to catch up!
What if we look at HR instead of SLG?
Nope….2009 still doesn’t show up
HOMERUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Reds 1929 -68 34 102
2 Reds 1951 -51 88 139
3 Reds 1928 -50 32 82
4 Reds 1950 -49 99 148
5 Reds 1931 -47 21 68
6 Reds 1930 -45 74 119
7 Reds 1949 -44 86 130
8 Reds 1932 -43 47 90
9 Reds 1925 -41 44 85
10 Reds 1921 -40 20 60
wow that 1929 offense was wretched.
but how bout since baseball started the draft…1965? (almost 45 years)
The Reds team with no power
SLG YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Reds 1982 -.036 .350 .386
2 Reds 2003 -.036 .395 .431
3 Reds 1997 -.035 .389 .425
4 Reds 1983 -.034 .356 .390
5 Reds 2009 -.028 .391 .419
In the end the Reds have 71 HR as a team and I think league average is 75.
The Reds aren’t even among the worst 10 teams in baseball this year in HR, which is shocking when you think about how bad the offense is.
but like I’ve said that doesn’t mean the team hits for lots of power
The team is near the bottom in SLG
SLG DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 A’s -.068 .361 .429
2 Padres -.038 .380 .419
3 Giants -.036 .383 .419
4 Braves -.032 .386 .419
5 Royals -.029 .400 .429
6 Reds -.028 .391 .419
7 Mariners -.027 .402 .429
8 White Sox -.021 .408 .429
9 Cubs -.020 .399 .419
10 Mets -.020 .399 .419
and one of the worst offenses in baseball this season
RCAA RCAA
1 A’s -84
T2 Reds -63
T2 Royals -63
4 Giants -50
5 Mariners -42
now power isn’t everything but it is SOMETHING. I wondered who have been the most power deficient individual Reds players in the last 50 years for an individual season
SLG YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Darrel Chaney 1973 -.170 .220 .390 -2.47
2 Ray Olmedo 2003 -.157 .274 .431 -2.70
3 Juan Castro 2001 -.138 .302 .440 -3.01
4 Pokey Reese 1997 -.137 .287 .425 -2.11
5 Kurt Stillwell 1986 -.136 .258 .394 -1.66
6 Don Blasingame 1961 -.134 .287 .421 -2.16
7 Willy Taveras 2009 -.130 .288 .419 -2.16
8 Dave Concepcion 1971 -.130 .251 .380 -2.46
9 Tommy Helms 1970 -.126 .282 .408 -2.64
10 Pete Rose 1986 -.124 .270 .394 -1.22
I’ve asked it before but does anyone know of a way I can post the stats in a fixed width font (or some other fixed method) so they are easier to read?
Congrats to Rivera of the Yanks (don’t worry I’m going to try and turn this post around to being Reds related)
Personally I think Rivera is the best closer of all-time but I could understand other arguments. But a friend asked me to try and come up with the ultimate bullpen when we were watching and he was shocked when I didn’t pick any (or many of the old school closers)
not in order but my bullpen would be
Rivera, Wagner, Hoffman, Henke, Roberto Hernandez, Wetteland, and F Rodriguez
being as As fan he was all over me for not including Eck
But this got us into a descussion of one of our favorite bullpen members or the Reds
Weathers
Do you realize that he’s in the top 15 all-time for Reds saves?
There are only 8 Reds in history who meet the following criteria
50 or more saves
and ERA better than league average
and at least an adjusted SO/9 IP vs league average of -.5 or greater
and Weathers is one of them….odd
SAVES >= 50
ERA >= 0 vs. the league average
STRIKEOUTS/9 IP >= -.5 vs. the league average
RSAA RSAA SV ERA SO/9 IP
1 John Franco 80 148 1.17 0.48
2 Scott Williamson 61 54 1.52 3.89
3 Rob Dibble 52 88 0.91 6.54
4 Jeff Brantley 38 88 1.57 2.34
5 Rawly Eastwick 37 57 1.23 0.57
6 David Weathers 27 61 0.40 -.42
7 Bill Henry 26 64 0.83 1.92
T8 Billy McCool 19 50 0.07 2.72
T8 Francisco Cordero 19 52 1.39 2.34
oops…looked too quickly….9 Reds all-time
and one more thought about the team’s lack of power
I don’t really care
honestly this teams problems, which we’ve gone over ALL season is who plays and where they bat.
and the problem sits with Dusty’s lack of understand of these #s
OBP
.256 Gonzo
.276 Willy
.286 Rosales
.296 Bruce
.308 Hairston Jr
.312 Nix
.323 Hernandez
.331 NL Average
.338 Phillips
in the last 50 years here are the Reds worst OBP vs league average as a team.
I think this is a bigger problem than the lack of power but it’s because of the fact that so many of the lower OBP are playing and batting at the top of the order
OBA YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Reds 1971 -.026 .300 .326
2 Reds 1967 -.024 .297 .321
3 Reds 2003 -.023 .318 .341
4 Reds 1997 -.022 .321 .342
5 Reds 2009 -.019 .320 .339
6 Reds 2008 -.018 .321 .339
7 Reds 1982 -.018 .310 .329
8 Reds 1983 -.017 .314 .332
9 Reds 2001 -.015 .324 .340
10 Reds 1984 -.015 .313 .328
Mike, Great stuff. I was surprised recently to see that the 1990 Reds had a low OBP.
The thing that set them apart from other teams was that nasty bullpen, they didn’t blow leads. And that’s the strength of this team, it’s blown very few leads, especially late in games.
Some have noted that the one thing that throws off Pythagoran projections are a good (or bad) bullpen.
It’s a safe bet that, since the 60’s, there’s a strong correlation between winning Reds teams and good bullpens. Even the Big Red Machine had a deep bullpen as a critical strength.
Mike, A problem with your analysis of Reds relievers is that ERA isn’t a good measure. It was great to be reminded of Billy McCool and Bill Henry.
The 1961 NL pennant winning Reds had a duo of closers – lefty Bill Henry and righty Jim Brosnan, each with 16 saves.
Brosnan wrote Pennant Race about that year. He wrote a better book, The Long Season, about the 1960 season he spent with 2 losing teams, the Cards and the Reds. It was a precursor to Bouton’s Ball Four.
I agree with Rivera as the greatest reliever of all time. But why exclude old school closers like Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm and Bruce Sutter from a list of the best. They often had to pitch multiple innings, and the criterion for saves was stricter then.
Then there was Elroy Face and his forkball, 18-1 in 1959.
As for current relievers, Wagner is erratic when the pressure is on, and Trevor Hoffman has failed in the biggest games of his life.
Chris @ 18: “. . . The sports media (like the political and business media) consists of quite a few lazy hacks.”
Oh man, that hurts. Who are you calling a hack? :emotion:
Mike, I agree that Weathers is better than what he gets credit for. He has done everything he’s ever been asked to do in Cincy. Plus, by all accounts, is a very good influence to the younger relievers in the bullpen.
I agree with you once again RCR. I love having Weathers around, when you don’t ask him to do too much. He makes a great tandem with Rhodes, and from all accounts his presence and experience has always been extremely positive. I have heard reports that he can inject confidence into relievers. I have to think that guys like Herrera can do nothing but benefit from him. And is it just me or does Weather’s slider just look better this season? It just has more bite on it and he is positioning it much better.
I also believe that since he has had so much time in Cincinnati that his leadership extends beyond the bullpen into the rest of the clubhouse. I’m all for that.
pinson ERA is a bad gauge for individual reliever but I don’t think it’s that bad for an entire bullpen.
but agreed, this years bullpen has been solid….blow, what, 1 or 2 leads?
SO rate is a good one for relievers.
a good example. Unadjusted the Reds bullpen has the 3rd best ERA in baseball behind Boston and Seattle and just ahead of TB
looking at WXRL the Reds have the 3rd best bullpen in baseball behind Boston (duh!) and the Angels just ahead of Seattle (who pitch in a pitcher park)
so I think ERA is fine for looking at the bullpen as a whole.
the bullpen has been nothing short of AMAZING this season.
but for example Fisher (3.77 ERA, 7th on the team among relievers) has been much better than that indicates. .6 WXRL which is 5th on the team among relievers
I think the missing piece for the Reds this season has been Rhodes. He’s been AMAZING and means the Reds don’t have to rely on Weathers in the 8th.
the Reds release Lincoln and bring up a long reliever and they have their best bullpen in a LONG time
even with Lincoln the last time the Reds had a bullpen this good? Cordero, Rhodes, Weathers, Masset, Fisher, and Herrera?
Maybe, but probably not 2002. Graves, White, Williamson, Reidling, Reitsma
2000 is about the same as this season. Graves, Sullivan, Williamson, Dessens, and Wholers
1994 was better, probably. Brantley, Ruffin, Carrasco, Mcelroy, and Schourek
but of course you have to go back to 1988 to get a bullpen that really stands out above the current one. Franco, Rijo, Dibble, Murphy, and Birtsas