Loading ...The Sporting News’ front page article:
They don’t mention the Reds’ needs (they’re talking about “contenders” and apparently don’t see the Reds as such; honestly, I don’t either)…but they do mention some other team’s needs.
Phillies/Brewers – Starting pitching
I don’t know what they have available in young players that could help the Reds (corner OF / SS / C / 3B?) and I don’t know that I’d be willing to make a deal with the Brewers, but I’d see if the Phillies had any interest in Arroyo (hopefully) or Harang.
Tampa – Closer
If they felt like a closer could make a difference, what about Cordero to them? Again, I don’t know what they have available, but on this team an expensive closer still seems like an extravagance.
Thoughts?
Tampa’s system, according to John Sickels:
The farm system has thinned out a bit but remains impressive overall, and particularly rich in pitching. I like the way the Rays handle high school pitchers, usually starting them off in rookie ball, then moving them to the New York-Penn League their second year, then into full-season ball in their third season. They could use some additional hitting depth, which is the main weakness I see right now.
And the Phillies:
The Phillies are very tools-oriented when it comes to position players. I can understand it, but sometimes I think it gets excessive. Drafting Collier AND Gose AND Hewitt is putting an awful lot of chips on one class of player. Personally I prefer a broader approach, mixing tools guys with more polished players too. I have a lot of skepticism about Hewitt at this point.
On the other hand, I like the pitching they picked up this year, and they aren’t afraid to take chances on guys like Drabek and Shreve that other teams might shy away from. They’ve shown guts when drafting.
I’ve been a long time proponenet of the Ray’s Zobrist. I’m sure he’s in some of my previous comments here. He would have been an excellent buy low guy and can play a decent SS and OF as well as 2nd. After the year he is having now, the buy low is probably a thing of the past, but I might make an inquiry anyway.
Well, once again, you’re talking about speculative, imaginary stuff by which teams MUST be able to take on payroll for these fantasy deals of Harang/Arroyo/Cordero to have any validity. Cordero is owed $30 million. The Rays have said they can’t take on payroll. So how does that deal make any sense for either party?
I hadn’t read that…I don’t see any way you add a closer w/o taking on salary.
If Tampa Bay did not add a closer last year, I doubt they will do so this year. In addition to the money problems (and I read the same thing somewhere) they just do not seem to value the position that highly.
And while I have always agreed Cordero’s salary is out of whack given our overall payroll structure, our starting pitching is pretty young and will get younger if we move a Harang/Arroyo and replace them with a Maloney/Bailey. I tend to think closers are generally overrated, but there is some more value in stability at the back end of the bullpen when you are dealing with young pitchers. Unless we are blown away, I think we end up keeping Cordero, and maybe moving Rhodes or Weathers to a contender. Minnesota is desperate for relief pitching, and they would give Delmon Young away. Not enough by himself, but maybe there is a deal that can be made there (or, if they really want to dump him, maybe even a Lincoln or other spare parts deal)?
Finally, although I am close to giving up, I still hope we could make a small deal at SS/3B/LF. We are so bad at those spots, even a league average player would make a huge difference. We have enough fringe AAAA players in Columbus maybe we can make that kind of acquisition.
I read SI’s power rankings for the first time this year. Didn’t have much to say about the Reds (at 15), but I like the quote anyway.
There is going to be some serious star power in Cincinnati this weekend for the first Civil Rights Game. Former president Bill Clinton will make a keynote address during weekend festivities, Oscar Robertson and Tony Perez will take part in a panel discussion and Bill Cosby, Muhammad Ali and Hank Aaron will be presented with awards, by Bob Gibson, Sugar Ray Leonard and Bud Selig, respectively. (And don’t forget Paul Janish! And Laynce Nix!)
When certain teams have been talking about taking on payroll, almost every case has been a short-term cost—Pedro, Brad Penny, Bedard, Washburn, Baez . . . people without long-term commitments.
In a normal economy, the Reds having so many guys locked up would make it easier for them to deal for high return. But this is not a normal economy and there are far more sellers than buyers. Bobby Cox was saying last weekend he didn’t expect any large trade activity at the deadline but smaller, low-cost, plug-a-hole deals.
Agreed with Mr. Redlegs. The Cordero contract is a real albatross for this team right now. If the Rays are in contention at the dead line they might add someone without long-term financial commitments (i.e. last year of contract), but that would certainly preclude Cordero from the conversation.
We are lucky that he’s at least performed so far this year, but he’s worth nowhere near what we’re paying for him and I’ll eat my shirt if he’s still an elite closer two years from now. It was and always has been a stupid contact. The Reds couldn’t afford to sign a better left fielder last off-season because almost 16% of payroll is committed to a guy who throws 2-3 innings a week. I would be ecstatic if we could find some sucker to on his contract for a few minor league scrubs, but most likely it would be a big market team.
I was trying to think of a couple of buy-low options on a prospects that were THE name and have dropped off in recent years (like Brandon Phillips was).
Andy Marte 3B – Still just 25 and currently in AAA Buffalo for Cleveland
Brandon Wood SS/3B – Just 24 with the Angels
Can anyone else think of some others that I am missing?
I think we can plug a hole and it won’t cost neither Taveras or Gonzalez, Jermayne Dye for Homer Bailey, Chris Dickerson and Paul Janish. We don’t want to use them so someone should.
Marte was a name I brought up before. He is hitting the ball well in AAA, but his experience in Cleveland was so bad no one here has the stomach to bring him up again, even if they move DeRosa. I think he could be very cheap, and would be worth a shot if EE’s wrist looks like it is going to linger.
Wood is a nice idea, another team that might be interested in any younger pitching, and I keep looking at Delmon Young. Again likely to be cheap, and Minnesota would take anything resembling a pitcher at this point. Gomes and Nix have done pretty well to this point, but Young might be some young low cost insurance if they start to regress.
We can make this team 3-5 wins better than it is just by correctly playing the players we already freaking have!!
Sending down Lincoln was a good start.
I’d really like to see what this lineup could do for 15-20 games… and I don’t even care if we’re facing a RHP or LHP. Just let them play. (Obviously, I’m counting on our injured amigos here.)
CF Dickerson
C Hanigan
1B Votto
LF Gomes
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
3B EE
SS Janish
It isn’t hard, Dusty. It really isn’t. If a guy has a terrible OBP and no power, you don’t play him! (And if you do — maybe b/c his defense is so good or b/c there just aren’t better options — you bat him 8th.)
Dan – I love the lineup.
I just can’t see the Reds as sellers. The last thing this team needs is MORE young talent. There is tons of it. We have pitching depth. Corner infield/outfield depth. What we are missing is one or two consistent bats.
All the OBP freaks wanting to make Hanigan something he’s not. No manager in his right mind is moving him to the top two slots of the order because:
a.) Hanigan is slower than plow mule;
b.) He’s got no power whatsoever–not even doubles power;
c.) His presence in the 8-hole gives you a last-chance bridge to produce a run before the pitcher’s slot and/or flip over the order;
d.) Keeps the bottom third of the order from being such an automatic 1-2-3 inning.
OBP is great and wonderful, but it’s not a tell-all to building the batting order and it’s not the sole requirement of the player for a certain batting slot. Whenever you’ve seen OBP catchers bat 1 or 2—Biggio, Pudge and Kendall early in their careers, to name a few—it was because they had bat control AND could run a little.
Andy, I don’t think the Cordero contract is an albatross. It’s budgeted and slotted, as teams do years in an advance when they make a long-term commitment to a player. Cordero is also producing and the ripple impact he’s had on stabilizing the real albatross for lo so many years—this team’s bullpen—doesn’t make him as easily replaceable as many people keep wanting to believe.
If Cordero went down today, who’s the closer? Weathers? How reliable is that possibility? What’s the impact on the rest of the stacking order of the bullpen? Has everyone forgotten 2006-07? Don’t you get tired of hoping and praying that guys like Masset and Burton are answers? Cordero was/is a proven commodity and having him at the backend makes everything else fall into place.
He’s pretty damn good at his job.
Is he worth $12 million? At the time he signed, that’s what the market dictated so that’s all we can go on. Just like the Cubs holding the Soriano contract. At the time, that was Sori’s market.
Dan, you don’t have Nix in your mix at all…and he’s earned playing time, other than that, I agree.
I like Andy Marte and Matt Murton as possible minor deals (Marte as insurance for EdE’s wrist and Murton as a base-clogging table setter and LF), and Chone Figgins would be be a great fit but probably isn’t available.
As we discussed a couple of days ago, Jocketty should at least explore the market for Harang. Who knows? Maybe the Phillies would be desperate/stupid enough to give up Michael Taylor.
I don’t think CoCo’s going anywhere, and I’m okay with that. He’s not really worth all that money, but he is effective.
How can you have too much of a good thing? More young talent is much better than more overpriced/underperforming veteran “talent”.
I like Wood but have no idea what the Angels plans are for him. The just transfered setup reliever Scot Shield to the 60-day DL, and closer Fuentes has not been as sharp as he was the previous 4 years in Colorado. Probably not a player for Cordero, but could probably get them interested in Weathers. Wood has played both SS and 3B, so depending on which prospects in the Reds system emerge, Wood could cover the other position.
Marte’s high K-rate has caught up to him. He doesn’t even walk much any more. I wouldn’t give up much to get him.
Same with Young, and this year his power disappeared. 5bb and 52k in 155 at-bats? 2 doubles, 1 homerun? Maybe if you could trick them into taking Taveras off our hands…they lost their speedy leadoff guy to the DL last week.
As for the lineups, I’d be happy with them keeping a Gomes/Nix platoon in LF.
Thom and Jeff were going on yesterday about how Hernandez is the starting catcher when Votto is back in the lineup. Their reasoning made me a bit sick to my stomach. It all had to do with how he’s the veteran, how he’s caught for so many more years and how’s he’s caught a much larger variety of pitchers. What? Hopefully they’re just spouting their own opinion and not reflecting the opinions of the front office. Otherwise, why would any minor league player ever move a “veteran” out of their position.
IMO Hanigan has earned a front row seat, offensively & defensively, in front of Hernandez. Unless you’re going to play Hernandez a little more to trade him at the deadline, the best team on the field in 2009 has Hanigan behind the plate 4-5 times a week.
Greg…I hope you’re right, but don’t believe it’ll happen (and don’t believe you do either).
If we learn anything from the current Taveras situation it’s that Dusty’s a “veteran guy”. Yeah, he did finally give Votto the job last year over Hatteburg and yeah, Bruce played regularly when he came up (but they weren’t calling him up to sit); but when he’s playing a guy that’s 1 for June over a kid on the bench who is better defensively and couldn’t be worse offensively and won’t entertain thoughts of making a change, it doesn’t bode well for Hanigan.
Like I said in the game thread yesterday, the sad thing is that Hannigan is a real candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. Yet, won’t get to play when Votto is back.
Greg –
I didn’t say get a “veteran guy.” I said, get a consistant bat. With the pitching, this team has a legit shot at the division or wildcard. The goal is playoffs where anything can happen. The club is 3.5 out. The team won’t be 3.5 out if trades aren’t made and soon.
We have four or five pitching prospects which could be dealt (Ramirez, Thompson, Bailey, etc.). We have a number of corner infielders/outfielders who are blocking one another.
Taveras needs to be relegated to the bench. If you aren’t going to bring up Stubbs or play Dickerson how about adding Jermaine Dye as the RF and moving Bruce to CF. Move some of the kids.
There is no way in the world that I move Bailey for Jermaine Dye…A #1 draft pick who is 24 for 1/2 year? If you could get him for Ramirez or Thompson and change, I would probably go for that.
I totally totally disagree with the “The last thing this team needs is MORE young talent” sentiment.
On the contrary, a team w/ a limited budget can never have too much. Never. It is the most valuable thing in baseball. It’s really the only way you can put together a great team on an average or below average payroll.
I would be depressed and dismayed if we do anything like Bailey for Dye. I hated that idea before the season. Now that we’re only talking about a half-season of Dye (for a team that has proven itself to be only a .500 team so far), I think it would be terribly stupid and short-sighted.
Bill – I agree with you at 17 and 20.
David – you’re talking about a short-term consistent bat with someone like Dye. I think the right move is to move/cut/whatever some of the veterans for young talent. But that, both publicly and apparently internally, is not the correct “baseball move” for a team who wants to call itself a buyer. A buyer has to retain Harang and Arroyo. Imagine the public outcry for moving either of those two pitchers while only a game or two back in the standings! A buyer cannot move or bench veterans like Gonzalez or Hernandez or Weathers.
I’d have been on the phone already with the Red Sox or Mets about Gonzalez. Hernandez and Weathers would be made available, too.
DL Taveras and let the potential Stubbs era begin.
Imagine:
Votto, Phillips, Wood, Edwin, Hanigan
Gomes/Nix, Stubbs, Bruce
Bench of Tatum, Dickerson, Gomes/Nix, Janish, Hairston
I don’t disagree that they seem to have a plethora of pitching prospects at the upper levels. But I wouldn’t spend that currency on just 2-3 months of player return.
Interesting story on Homer Bailey’s splitter:
When Branch Rickey described baseball as a game of inches, odds are he was talking about balls that barely clear the fence or squirt beyond an infielder’s grasp.
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Homer Bailey is adding another anecdote to Rickey’s signature phrase. By sliding his middle finger an inch or so wider in his grip, Bailey has added a split-fingered fastball that is transforming him from just another hyped Louisville Bats prospect to the most unhittable pitcher in the International League.
Ask the Norfolk Tides.
At Louisville Slugger Field on Wednesday, the Tides became the fourth consecutive team to look utterly confused and overmatched by Bailey. He still can make the radar gun flash consistently with his magical 96mph fastball, but now he’s also throwing an 88mph split-finger fastball that tumbles into the dirt as it arrives at home plate.
“The first time he threw one, my only comment was, ‘Holy smokes!’” Bats manager Rick Sweet said.
Using those two pitches, plus his curveball and slider, Bailey limited the Tides to seven harmless singles in eight shutout innings in a 6-2 Louisville victory.
He started throwing the split-finger June2 at Pawtucket. He has now taunted hitters with it in four starts.
These are his statistics for those games: He has allowed one run and 24 hits (no home runs) in 311/3 innings. He has struck out 30 hitters and walked five. Opponents are batting .211 against him.
“I’ve had Homer three years and never seen him anywhere near as dominating, game after game after game,” Sweet said. “He’s controlling the best hitters in this league, absolutely controlling them with his stuff.”
Credit the split-finger. Credit Bailey. But most of all, credit Bats pitcher Justin Lehr.
After four seasons of fooling nobody with his changeup, Bailey said he was charting pitches for Lehr one night. Bailey is 23, a former No.1 draft pick, a proud Texan and a guy the Cincinnati Reds expect to anchor their starting rotation. Lehr is 31, a veteran who pitched in South Korea part of last season and survives on guile.
Bailey watched Lehr confuse hitters with his split-finger pitch and asked him to show him the grip. Lehr agreed. They huddled in late May in the outfield in Scranton, Pa. When Bailey throws his fastball, he grips the ball where the seams come together. Lehr taught him to keep his index finger on the seam but move his middle finger outside the seam. That’s the splitter.
Same pitching motion. Different grip. Devastating results.
“I threw one or two and (Lehr) said, ‘You already have it. There’s nothing to teach,’” Bailey said.
Not exactly. The folks running the Reds’ farm system had to approve. Bailey said he wanted to learn it several years ago but was told that throwing the splitter could injure his shoulder or elbow. Approval denied.
Velocity has given him multiple opportunities in the big leagues, starting in 2007, but velocity was not keeping him in Cincinnati. Bailey understood he needed to deceive hitters. The splitter would be his deception.
Bats pitching coach Ted Power had to ask his supervisors for approval. Bailey said he already had made his decision.
“I said, ‘Teddy, you can ask them, but I really don’t care,’” Bailey said. “I’m throwing it. If they tell me, ‘No,’ I’m just going to throw it anyway. You can call it a changeup if you like.”
We’ll never know how that dispute would have been resolved. The Reds gave their OK. And now Bailey is giving hitters something to think about other than his fastball. He’s also giving the Reds something to think about for their pitching rotation.
Greg –
The division has never been more accessible. I guess that is my problem. If you trade Arroyo or Harang or Weathers or Cordero, then the Reds are essentially giving up on the season and we are in a position where the team will be 15 – 20 games out of first again.
With this team, the Reds are 3.5 back. Add Votto, Encarnacion, Volquez AND Dye or Holliday or DeRosa, etc. and all of a sudden we are in a playoff race.
You can deal two or three of Thompson, Ramirez, Maloney, Bailey, Wood, Stewart, etc. and still have depth, especially if Leake signs. You can deal one or two of Frazier, Dorn, Heisey, Francisco, Soto, etc. because either they are blocking each other OR guys under control on the big league roster are blocking them. How many LF/3B prospects at the same stage in development can you possibly have?
At some point, you have to trade those extra pieces for a legit shot. That’s what I’m advocating. I’m also advocating throwing the first punch in the NL Central by landing that extra bat. You then force the Cubs, Brewers and Cards to do something and if you are the first at a Holliday or a DeRosa then you keep them off those other teams.
If you trade Thompson, Maloney and Francisco for a bat are you giving up a lot? Hell yes! However, if Dan’s lineup from above could feature a legit middle of the order bat I’d do the deal.
Great post Jim!
Why are you lumping Derosa and Holliday into the same category? Where does Derosa play when Edwin comes of the DL?
I don’t see how trading Weathers would impact this team to the tune of 15-20 games out of first place.
Leake is hurt and has been pulled from pitching any more in the CWS. Thompson is frequently injured, and IMHO, more suited for relief work.
Out of Frazier, Dorn, Heisey, Francisco, Soto, I suspect only 2 of those are good, fulltime starters in the majors.
Any of the better players mentioned – Arroyo for example – I don’t trade for prospects (only) – I would include an Arroyo in a deal for a Dye/Holliday type player.
David,
I agree 100%. You have to go for it right now and pull the trigger first. Prospects are just that. One or two of them for a quality piece that can make a difference in this division is worth the investment.
Jim – I saw that article just before you posted it. Great read.
Is there any evidence to suggest that a split-finger fastball causes more injuries than other types of pitches?
Add Votto, Encarnacion, Volquez AND play Hanigan & Dickerson instead of Hernandez and Taveras and all of a sudden we are in a playoff race.
#14) So, it’s better to have 2 automatic outs at the TOP of the lineup?
#31) Assuming Votto comes back and is successful (though you can’t reasonably expect him to carry the numbers he’s currently carrying all year) and that EE raises his to his career level or above.
Greg, when I referenced that article in yesterday’s Down on the Farm thread the commenter after me sided with Reds’ management that he shouldn’t be allowed to throw b/cof the high injury risk. So, I assume that there is indeed at least a school of thought that pitch carries a higher injury risk. Although, I don’t see why, but then again, I’m not a pitcher.
Bill, Votto very well may be just that good.
RCR, no one in the history of baseball is as good as Votto has been so far in 2009: .357/.464/.627. No one. (Is there? Babe Ruth? Lou Gehrig maybe?)
Votto is very very good, I think, but he’ll regress from that.
Luckily, Edwin should similarly improve. He’s much better than .127/.286/.190.
Ruth, Ted Williams, and Bonds (if you count him) all had years better than Joey’s stats.
Others too probably, but you could start by looking up their numbers.
#14: On a good team, okay, maybe. But I put a .400 OBP player near the top of my lineup regardless of his speed or his power. Any other viewpoint doesn’t understand baseball. It’s all about not making outs and giving Votto and BP changes to drive in runs with their power.
Greg –
Weathers alone won’t cost the team 15 games, but I’m pretty sure you knew I didn’t mean that. Your point is to trade guys like Phillips/Harang/Arroyo/Weathers/Cordero. I think that is an awful idea at the moment given we ARE in contention currently without 3 of the top players on this roster. Why save these young unproven players and trade producing veterans?
Given his salary for the next two years, coupled with his total lack of production, I can’t imagine any team taking Tavaras off the Reds hands. Wrapping him up in a deal would more likely be looked at as a deal breaker than a pot sweatener. Unless they eat his salary, Tavaras will probably be with the club all year.
I wouldn’t trade anyone unless the Brewers or Cubs race out front and build a 7- or 8-game lead. Not sure this offense can make up that ground.
If Votto and EdE come back soon and play like their old selves (which can’t be taken for granted, given both their health issues) and the division remains winnable, the Reds should look to bolster the offense and possibly the bullpen using a couple of the guys GregD mentioned in #28. We’re talking an incremental improvement, really, unless ownership agrees to boost payroll.
If Harang could net a bona fide impact bat (not sure that’s possible) or a nearly ready stud prospect, I think that’s worth doing. But other than those unlikely scenarios, Jocketty shouldn’t take anything away from this team. It’s built to compete next year, but has somehow managed to stay relevant without a leadoff man or cleanup hitter.
Trade producing veterans if it brings you a great return!
What if Harang could bring a serious bat (who’s under team control for another year or two after this)? And what if you could plug Homer into Harang’s spot and not lose much at all?
I think it’s worth considering. (In truth, if you’re thinking about preserving the future of the Reds — which I do a lot, possibly to a fault — trading Harang is a much better move than trading 2 or 3 young prospects. Harang is 31 I think, and therefore getting expensive, and probably also slowly starting to get worse. That’s what happens to most players in their 30’s.)
I’ve heard a lot of talk about benching Gonzalez and putting in Janish based on Janish being a better hitter.
IMO switching one out for the other would just be a wash. He started the season out pretty well, but in the long haul I’m just not sure at all that Janish is a better hitter. He might turn out to be as good as Gonzo at the plate, but no where in his development has J been thought of as a difference maker with the bat. I’d have no problem with Dusty playing him more than he does but I don’t think the Reds are going to be any better offensively with Janish in there.
I’d have to agree with you Travis. The team has a winning record. No one’s running off and hiding in the NL Central. There’s no sense in trading key (producing) players off this roster at this point in the season. Let’s wait and see how this plays out. If the team goes in the tank that approach should be rethought.
“But I put a .400 OBP player near the top of my lineup regardless of his speed or his power. Any other viewpoint doesn’t understand baseball.”
So the 30 managers in MLB don’t know anything about baseball for not batting a slow-footed catcher at the top of the order. Ohh-kay.
30 managers in MLB have a 400 obp catcher?
ooohhh-kkaaayyy
David – right, I’m not talking about trading ALL of the Reds players that have been discussed here. I’m saying I’d look at one/two of them as a possibility before trading the top prospects who are most ready in the system for a short-term fix. Obviously it all depends on the deal. I’m less sold on the guys like Francisco, for example, so I wouldn’t object to a package including him.
Bill – right. In my offensive projections in the other thread, I assumed Votto at last year’s offense and Encarnacion at his career numbers.