Loading ...From Lance McAlister’s blog:
Pitcher A: 18 games, 86 ing, 105 hits, 67 er, 49 k, 51 bb, 7.01 era
Pitcher B: 20 games, 80 ing, 111 hits, 64 er, 42 k, 55 bb, 7.20 era
Identities of pitchers below the fold…
Pitcher A: Homer Bailey
Pitcher B: Edison Volquez
That’s what I was saying in the recap after Homer’s game on Saturday. He is still way too young a kid to give up on and that Volquez had similar struggles at his age. It’s just a matter of time, and I think Homer will be a productive pitcher.
Too many fans are ready to “get rid” of Bailey. I know he was drafted a while ago out of high school, but he would have went to college, this would be his first full professional season. From that perspective, he is already ahead of that draft class.
Totally agree brublejr. The fact he has been up and down so much masks the fact he is still very young. Not ready to give up on him (especially for a rental player). My real question is whether he is better off pitching regularly in AAA as a starter or with a relief role in the bigs as some here have argued and ala the old Orioles and Chamberlain with the Yankees.
I am not ready to give up on him and would not trade him for a 1/2 season rental. However, I would give him up for a Ryan Zimmerman in a heartbeat.
Pitcher B has a future in Major League Baseball, Pitcher A should be playing in the Frontier League.
MtC, don’t be that guy.
I’m totally that guy
I’m not sure how much longer I can be optimistic about Homer. It’s starting to take a toll, maybe he needs a change of scenery as did Volquez.
A big difference in the two is mindset. I don’t think Edinson came in with all the noteriety that Homer did and still lives with. Homer can’t be John Smith the 22 year old he has to be HOMER BAILEY, 1st round draft pick and future franchise player, in the eyes of fans and media. I think this could retard his development and although I would love for him to succeed in Cincy it might be getting close to time to sell while there is value.
Let’s trade Homer for Josh Hamilton!
Edison did not come into Cincinnati with that noteriety, but he was expected to be Homerific when he first came up with Texas.
excellent comparison
both have/had serious control problems
both have a good fastball with Volquez’s having more movement
Volquez came up as primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher now he throws his curve and slider much more often but his out pitch is still his changeup
I don’t know what’s going on with Bailey this year in AAA (as in what he’s throwing when) but the big surprise for me in his one game with the Reds was the complete lack of a changeup and the few times he threw it the difference in speed between his fastball and changeup was not enough to fool major league hitters. Bailey also threw a ton of sliders. I think Bailey needs a 4th pitch and or a much improved changeup.
Volquez had a good change but he clearly worked on it and it became a great changeup and that’s a major part of his success. Along with better control. Bailey needs to do the exact same thing. He needs a better change to become less hittable (even during May when Bailey has pitched better at AAA he is still allowing a hit an inning) and find better control.
I have no problem with trading Homer. But you better get good value for him if he has a future. Trading him because you think he needs a change of scenery is great for him. And maybe it makes you feel better temporarily. But it does nothing for the Reds if he flourishes somewhere else and we only have buppkiss in return. Volquez was a good trade for Texas because they got Hamilton. It was OK for the Reds to give up Hamilton because Volquez was (or turned out to be) similar value in return. If you want to get rid of Bailey you need to say who you would accept in return. Bailey still has a ton of potential and you will look like a fool (and many people would be ragging on you for years to come) if Bailey has a good career and whoever you got in return did very little for the Reds. If the Reds trade Bailey and don’t get equal value I hope those of you who are calling for the trade will step up and say your impatience was a problem you should have faced. Same if Bailey stays and has good seasons for the Reds. If Bailey stays and has a poor or no career I will admit that my patience and optimism were wrong in this instance. We shall see.
Bailey has a big name and could draw something worthwhile in a trade, just like Volquez did. The similiarities between Bailey and Volquez don’t stop with the numbers above. Look at the teams they are on. Texas had a pitching prospect and needed a bat. We have a pitching prospect and need a bat. Also take a look at where we’re at this year — 5 games over .500 and 1.5 out of first. If we could get a productive <28 year old CF or LF, or maybe even an SS, this could be a fun year without mortgaging the future. I’m no good at analyzing trades so I won’t bother suggesting who they might be.
Trading Homer Bailey is acceptable in only one circumstance: We’re in the hunt near the trade deadline. By in the hunt I mean within 3-4 games of 1st in the division, as well as a chance in the wildcard. I’m still weary of trading him, because if he has enough sway among scouts to pull in a big bat, is it really worth it?
All this jibber-jabber about a big bat for the playoff hunts scares the bejeebees out of me. Being 21 and having only seen a winner in ‘99, I don’t even know how to handle situations like these! I just hope we keep on winning. And if Johnny Gomes keeps his game up, and it’s not just a fluke, I’d be upset to see Homer go. I think he’ll be a solid pitcher someday.
The real crux of the matter is saying who, specifically, you would or (especially)wouldn’t accept in trade. Bailey does have some trade value. How much? Depends on which GM you are talking to. It’s all academic until you name names. A really good young SS would be great. Maybe a 3B. But they better have the potential or actual of Bailey. I’m not sure getting a LF or CF is really necessary. Stubbs is looking good. I think Nix/Gomes can be good. Alonzo hopefully is coming so you need to put Votto somewhere and LF is the most logical place. Trading for LF would make it even more crowded.
The only reason he has been a disappointment to the fans is because they billed him as the “savior” for the Reds. He was drafted when the Reds had a horrible staff and he was already as good as some of the guys on the roster right out of high school.
I think the biggest reason he has yet to be very successful is that he has never played a whole season at one level. Is is constantly getting bumped from one place to another.
He has the stuff, but he is still young. I do not give him up unless he is in a package for a top-tier SP, SS, LF, or 3B that will be with the team long term. I do not give him up for a summer rental, at all.
Marty Brennaman says Homer just isn’t ever going to get it. So that should close down this discussion.
I don’t think he has the stuff of Volquez (no movement on his fastball, does not have even a second pitch) nor does he have the make-up of Volquez. I hope I’m dead wrong, but I don’t think Bailey ever makes it.
Did you see Volquez pitch in Texas? I didn’t either, but if he had movement on his fastball then and secondary pitches there, wouldn’t he have had better results?
Volquez learned his changeup from Soto when he was traded here, right?
I did see Volquez pitch in Texas and he did have great movement. His biggest problem was control.
Gammons with an early look at who might be available
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4198679&name=gammons_peter&ex_cid=MyESPNToday_Columnist
looking at Volquez’s PitchFX data he had just as much movement (slightly more) on his fastball and change with Texas as he does now.
the difference is that he throws both his slider and change slower. The difference between his fastball and changeup speed went from 14.0 MPH to 16 MPH and his slider has more movement probably because of the slightly slower speed.
one huge difference I see is the difference between Volquez’s slider this year and last
his slider has had a major increase in horizontal movement and a slight lowering in vertical movement. I wonder if that all has to do with his back issues and probably is the cause if him having more control issues this year compared to last
When Marty starts making those type decisions the organization is in trouble.
The key to making a good trade is trading the player a year early rather than a year late. That can be a tough call. Branch Rickey was a master at this.
If Homer has a 2009 like his 2008 then we have waited a year to long and the Reds will hold on to him. On the other hand if he turns it around and becomes what we think he should they shouldn’t trade him at all.
But I am sure the teams trading are going to know the risk and provide value accordingly.
Tough,tough call and I am sure it is the same call Texas had to make with Edinson. Edinson was like Homer and think the Reds had big concerns over Hamilton’s health. That was a gamble that paid off for both at least for one year.
Homer might not make it as a rotation guy, but he sure could be a reliever right now…he has good and bad innings but he wouldn’t need as many pitches if he was in the pen. He seems to have the most trouble the second or more time through the lineup and out of the pen that wouldn’t be a problem. I’d like to see him make some progress in L’Ville then come back in September.
Lack of control explains the walks. Why was he so hittable?
Talk about someone who is past his prime, it Marty. I used to love to listen to Marty and I still do 80 to 90 percent of the time. Marty believes too much of his own hype and thinks he is much smarter and more important
than he is these days. He doesn’t seem to know when he is just shooting off his mouth. I think not having Joe in the booth with him has lowered his appeal and his approach. I think Joe’s presence helped him to reign in a bit.
Homer is so hittable because of his approach and his control. It was just a few weeks ago that he struck out 15 in a game. I call that pretty unhittable. When he is on, he is good. The problem is consistency. The hope is that he will develop that. Just like Volquez. Will he? No one can say. But the guy can be certainly unhittable. If he can get consistent, watch out.
Bruble-Last thing I want in the pen is a guy that can’t throw strikes.
Dunn’s gone – Reds “fans” need a new guy to hate.
If the Reds are going to make a move, I’d really like to see them get a live arm for the bullpen down the stretch to augment the 39 year olds. Many clubs have had success putting in a top starting prospect into the pen for such a thing. It might be a way for Homer Bailey to get some confidence or completely destroy him in Cinci, but that’s the breaks. Jonathan Papelbon went to the pen in such a setup and has been so good, he never left, but he seems to be a good control type guy.
Just because we don’t think Homer Bailey will pan out doesn’t mean we aren’t fans. I hope I’m dead wrong.
You do not get rid of players solely because their performance is disappointing. You get rid of players disappointing or otherwise — when you can bring in a better replacement, ideally via a trade.
Right on justcorbly.
Chris Welch says Bailey has great movement on his FB. I’ll take his word for it. What I saw during his start against the Indians was a guy overthinking. The Indians just sat there with their bats on their shoulders. Bailey never missed by much and the Indians never swung. The Ump didn’t help the cause either by not calling the outside corner for Bailey. Despite the six runs, I came away impressed with Bailey’s improvement. Moving FB, nice slider, decent pitching, not just throwing. I think he’ll be studly next year and #3 quality by 2011. He’s a keeper.
Oh, and Marty is a cranky dude with a flair for the dramatic.