Loading ...According to Baseball Prospectus, Homer Bailey’s superior outings of late have come as a result of going back to an old delivery, which BP says puts more “downward bite on both his fastball and breaking ball.”
You know I feel he should be in Cincinnati right now, pitching out of the bullpen. Since he’s at Louisville, I’m all for him making a couple of more starts there. However if he remains dominant, I stand by my assertion that I would rather he pitched out of the bullpen for the Reds for this year and prepare for next year’s rotation.
Now, some may feel that Homer may be trade bait for a power bat. I’m all about great position players having more valuable than prospect pitchers, but not for an old position player. If we’re not getting a young slugging outfielder, I don’t feel the need to deal Bailey. But…if the Reds have had Bailey go back to a delivery they wanted him to initially change, may they be dressing him up for a deal?
I say two more successful minor league starts and let’s see what he can do out of the Reds’ bullpen in preparation for next year.
The 5th starter can’t get anyone out. Why would you want to bring up Homer Bailey and stick him in the bullpen? If he comes up, he’s in the rotation and Owings goes to the pen. Until then, let him pitch at Louisville and take his regular turn.
If you can get a viable stud for the #4 hole, then you trade ‘em. But not for Dye or someone who is on the wrong side of 35 years old.
Put Homer in the rotation if Owings continues to pitch poorly. And of course, there is always the spectre of injury that you must consider. How many staffs go through the year without reaching down into the minors three or four times for a starter? It would be nice to have a potential gem as Bailey to call up. Un
Why did they try to change his delivery in the first place?
Owings had an outstanding outing out, last week against Atlanta. Even this weekend, he gave up 4 in the first, but I was told that Phillips did’t get to a ball he might have been able to, that would have ended the inning, and he was solid after the first. He’s the #5, I think he’ll do fine.
But that being said, if they do bring up Bailey, I want him in the rotation, not the bullpen pitching once a week in long relief…and I don’t think he’d be successful as a short man.
I doubt they make a move in May, but I’m convinced, as I was all offseason, that their best short-term & long-term option is to move Phillips and Arroyo for offensive help.
My biggest concern is that they get antsy and make a bad trade to try to make the playoffs this year and set back the organization.
To expand on Greg’s comment, what concerned them about Homer’s delivery? Was it changed to improve results or to lower injury chances? I remember reading that Homer’s struggles were based, in part, on him not being able to repeat his delivery, but I am guessing this these articles were based on his inability to repeat a changed delivery.
If he cannot master a new delivery, I guess it does not matter, because he is not a big leaguer otherwise.
As for bullpen v. starter? I wouldn’t mind him being a long guy. Cut Mike Lincoln. . .
I too feel that Homer should be in Cincy working out the bullpen, however if they can get a power bat by trading Homer I’d be all for that. Pitching’s been pretty good, its the offense that been slack.
I’ve given lots of evidence to back up my belief that Homer should first go to the pen here in Cincinnati, and I mean for the balance of the season.
http://redlegnation.com/2009/04/15/relief-for-homers-bullpen-story/
We’ve already had two Homer “announcements”…let’s take the quiet way in this time, and let him get settled in, then…the world…
One thing I didn’t say here…Leo Mazzone had quite a track record in Atlanta, but it was pretty much with the same pitchers. Earl Weaver turned his pitchers over in Baltimore…and he gave them their trials in the bullpen first.
I don’t want to trade Homer unless we’re getting someone back who’s just as young and just as (potentially) studly. Homer for Dye (or anything similar) would just be all wrong. We need to be building, getting younger, and extending the horizon.
I’d prefer to shop Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, and/or Phillips.
Trouble is, they may not have much trade value. The first 3 all have huge contracts, and Phillips is about to.
Is it a real problem (or a bs excuse) when pitchers have trouble getting warmed up on short notice as is often required in the bullpen? I recall a report in spring that mentioned that regarding Bailey.
More realistically, I think good moves for the Reds right now would be…
–Play Phillips at SS now and then… prepare him to move there. (Better use of his athleticism and strong arm.)
–Play Rosales at both 3B and 2B.
–Play Hairston in the infield.
–Bring up Homer. (DL or release Lincoln.)
–Bring up Gomes. (Trade Masset or Weathers for a non-descript minor leaguer.)
–Carry 14 hitters and 11 pitchers.
–Platoon Gomes with either Nix or Dickerson in LF.
–Play Dickerson in CF now and then vs. RHP’s.
I think that’s all I got… Anyway, I really think we’d have a better team then. Bailey is a power arm and Gomes is a power bat. We need both!
But if we traded for a stud bat, where would they play?
Keep Bailey. We’ll need him before you know it.
No way I trade Bailey unless I get a young bat who has the potential to be great. The team is off to a good start and may even win 85ish games. But, I wouldn’t sacrifice Bailey just to get to 90ish wins. To get a big impact bat, I’d much rather shop a combination of Phillips, Arroyo, A-Gon, and Hernandez (not than anybody wants those last two).
Also keep in mind that our run differential (which tells you more about the overall quality of a team than W-L record does) is negative. We’ve scored 93 and given up 100. We’re a slightly below average team based on that.
I really hope everyone in charge can see that and have patience! Take the long view. What we all want is a sustained run, not one flash-in-the-pan “go for it” year that crushes the team for the next 5 years.
Patience… we really aren’t quite there yet, and no left fielder is going to change that.
Exactly. Well said Dan. I guess the other side of the argument is that sometimes you do have to “go for it” or you’re always rebuilding for “next year”… but I don’t think that there are too many who are saying this is that kind of team.
There are some tough decisions for this team in the not too distant future. Trade Bailey? I agree with Y-City… we’ll need him soon enough. But, to get something, you have to give something. Sometimes I think fans get carried away with thinking a team can trade junk for treasure.
Re: But if we traded for a stud bat, where would they play?
you kidding me? they could play ANYWHERE
other than Votto and Bruce I could care less if any other position was replaced
if we got a stud LF would you care if Hairston/Dickerson started again?
or a stud SS? or a stud 2B? or a stud CF? or a stud C?
Forget Gomes, Bankston is hitting and playing better and is younger. He is hitting for more average, power, plays better defense and is younger.
Owings has had one good outing out of four. I would hate to lose his bat but maybe he needs to go back down to AAA to get things straightened out. Saturday he was throwing batting practice in the first inning.
“Re: But if we traded for a stud bat, where would they play? you kidding me? they could play ANYWHERE”
I’m pretty sure Y-City is just poking fun at Dusty. He said that (I think about Rosales) a little while back. Dusty likes this team too much to make anyone sit.
Even if we should trade Bailey for a stud hitter (and I really question that for all the reasons Dan and others have pointed out) who is that stud hitter that is on the market? Pretty much anyone is still in the AL central race at this point, so I do not think you are getting Dye. Seattle might trade Beltre, but is he a stud bat (and where do you play EE)? Other than the Nationals, and if you honestly think they would bring Kearns or Dunn back I have a bridge to sell you, I do not see the impact bat on a team that is not in contention. And by the time some of these teams are out of contention, is the value of any bat (Matt Holliday?) you are going to add give you enough return over the remainder of the season to justify trading a young (and cheap) starter?
I am still sick they did not use the Lincoln/Weathers/Taveras (yes the latter two are playing way better than expected and I hope it lasts) money to go more aggressively after a Burrell or Abreu, but I am not sure we can fix it now.
“I am still sick they did not use the Lincoln/Weathers/Taveras (yes the latter two are playing way better than expected and I hope it lasts) money to go more aggressively after a Burrell or Abreu, but I am not sure we can fix it now.”
Or trade Phillips for a bat and sign Hudson to a lighter 1-year deal.
I know everyone hates him, but Weathers isn’t that terrible of a pitcher and I’d argue fairly valuable member of the bullpen.
Bring up Homer, start him in the bullpen in long relief and as a spot starter. It wouldn’t hurt to have a couple of our starters get an extra day of rest every once in awhile. Put him in the rotation when there’s an injury/trade/consistent poor performance
I just don’t see there being any affordable impact bat that we could afford. Votto is moving to LF next year and Bruce in right. Alonso at 1b. That takes away a lot of positions that impact bats usually play. Any impact bats at more premium positions are going to cost more
Agree with you on Weather now Matt, at the time, with Burton and Bray I though they could use the money better elsewhere (although to be fair at the time I think they were hoping for the pick).
I also agree that with a couple more solid starts and a declining number of off days, it is time for Bailey to come up. They are scared to use Lincoln and Massett are not giving us anything, Homer probably can.
I think Owings gets the nod over Bailey because of what he brings to the table as far as his bat. I’m not convinced that you trade anyone of the pitchers. What happens if someone goes down for any extended period of time? In that case, you have Bailey to step in and fill the void.
Left fielders will be available toward the deadline. Washington has a few outfielders available, the Athletics are 9-13 and with Holliday’s power outage, Oakland may be willing to move him, etc.
However, with the Reds upcoming prospects, you don’t make a move if you aren’t in contention in July. As much as the fans might want it now. If the Reds are a few games out of the wildcard in July, sure, then you consider moving some pieces, but not until then.
I love the Reds, but I don’t think Burrell or Abreu would have came to Cincy even if the money was competitive. If we win this year they might, but both of those guys went to clubs where they thought something was going on.
Bill Bray did OK last year and has also been doing well at AAA again. He is definitely good enough to be on the roster. That Roenicke guy and the other left handed starter with Louisville are also doing well (and Cincy could use a lefty starter).
It is fantastic that the Reds actually have some pitching depth, as some of those staffs under Boone were so terrible with half the staff not even being major league depth.
I think we should just hold tight and let it play out, then trade from a position of strength. The Reds have a dearth of pitching, which is something all but about maybe a small handful of clubs in all of the MLB can say. There will be injuries and there will be pitching slumps, the fact that we have some people that could perhaps get the job done and ready is great.
I would not trade for a bat unless it is someone that has at least a year or two on his contract at a decent dollar and not get stuck with a burdensome contract. I’d rather see the Reds maybe make a play for a guy like Conor Jackson, Nick Swisher, Jeremy Hermida or some other similar player with a couple of years in the bigs instead of going after a guy well into his 30s. I’d like them to get someone that is on the upstroke they might be able to use for a couple of years instead of getting into the 1 year rental crowd.
Alonso is at Sarasota now (high-A ball). He’s doing all right but nothing great.
I don’t expect him until 2011.
Anyway… if we can get value (in YOUNG cheap players who are true prospects) for any of our big contracts, I think we need to do it.
Dan,
I agree wholeheartedly, if Homer is traded, it has to be for an up and coming of’dr with some pop, who’ll be around for a few years. Jermaine Dye’s a good player but he doesn’t have many seasons left in him.