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Time for a recap of tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 7
Chicago 1
WP: Harang (2-2)
LP: Zambrano (1-1)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Joey Votto cannot be stopped. Four hits in five ABs, two doubles, a homer, 2 RBI.
–The good Aaron Harang is back in 2009, and I’m pumped. Seven innings today, 7 hits, no earned runs. He only struck out 2, which is out of character, but he walked only one.
–Another fine outing by the bullpen, namely David Weathers (my hero) and Nick Masset. You absolutely can’t ask for anything more than what Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, and Masset have given you in the first two weeks.
–One of the more positive things of the last couple of days is that the Reds really took advantage of every mistake made by the Cubs.
–Has anyone noticed that Willy Taveras keeps getting on base?
NEGATIVES
–Pitching and defense? That’s what Walt Jocketty wants us to buy, but the Reds aren’t selling it very well. A couple of errors today — one by Edwin Encarnacion and yet another error by Chris Dickerson (yeah, that LF defense is much improved, huh?).
–HAVOC! The Reds are giving up too many outs, as in the botched squeeze play today. A team that has trouble scoring like the Reds just can’t give away outs. The Reds are going to be smarter about creating havoc.
ETC.
–Did the Reds really just go 7-3 on a road trip, winning three straight series against division rivals? Really? And did they do it while getting outscored 37-36? Ain’t baseball wonderful?
–A 9-6 record, and tied for second place in the Central. Tied with the Pirates, who have outscored their opponents by 20 runs. The Reds, on the other hand, have been outscored by 6 runs on the season. That’s the reason some of us, while really enjoying the wins, are concerned that it just can’t last. I hope I’m wrong.
–I was pulling into the driveway after work, listening on the radio, when Votto hit the homer. I went inside and told my wife about the day Votto had just had. She said, “I bet he has a great OPS.”
I love my wife.
I couldnt be more stoked after this road trip and cant wait to welcome them back to Cincinnati friday and saturday. Im really hoping a good crowd makes its way to the park this wknd, the forecast should help. I expect Volquez to have a huge game after seeing Cueto and Harang pitch gems back 2 back. Go Reds! And show up this weekend Cincinnati!!!
Harang is back!
glad we didn’t pick up Milton Bradley…already o the outs in the windy city
The 1960 World Champion Pirates were outscored 55 to 27 in the by the Yankees and won 4 of 7. It is about the wins not sesaon total runs scored. 3 to 2 wins and 7 to 2 losses are going to be the rule for this team. As long as the pitching stays above average they will have a winning record.
Again, too early to be fretting over pythag issues. Too few games skew the run differential thanks to Burton/Lincoln meltdowns, which have been the primary cause of the early season – run differential. I’m enjoy three straight series wins on a tough, early season roadtrip. Legitimate pythag issues won’t be reliable for another two months.
I would say yes, the LF defense is improved.
Adam Dunn: 8 errors in 141 games in 2008.
Chris Dickerson: 3 errors in 9 games in 2009.
No amount of increased range can make up for the butcher job Dickerson has performed on LF so far this year.
Now, that said, the LF defense is definitely GOING TO BE improved over the course of the year. Dickerson is better than this. But I do not agree that it has been improved thus far.
Amen, Cary. I was just about to post the same thing.
I gotta agree with Kurt, the LF defense is still much improved. Just remember how many lazy fly balls landed in shallow left or in the gap when Dunn played out there. And please don’t tell me about Dunns fielding percentage, he caught the balls that were hit at him yes, but the guy had NO RANGE.
That game was over when Zambrano pitched to Votto with first base open in the 6th. Zambrano needs to get into some Yoga or call up Phil Jackson over at the Lakers for some Zen tips. The Reds were living rent free in his head after Votto knocked in that run.
By odds, getting outscored will catch up, but I am not going to argue as the Reds have lost a bunch of games in the past couple of seasons they should have won. I kept thinking about how the D-Backs got off to a hot start last year while getting outscored left and right and it ended up fading badly in the second half.
Encarnacion is so hard to figure, as the guy is either red hot or ice cold, there is little middle ground.
They are getting near the end of April, so I have to wonder how long some of these guys get to make things happen or someone else gets a shot.
I didn’t quite get why the Cubs dropped the cash for Bradley when they could have gotten Dunn as a left handled bat. I’m glad they didn’t as I thought Dunn in the middle of those guys would have made that lineup completely sick. They also dumped off a handy player in DeRosa who was pretty popular to bring in Bradley who has had issues on and off his whole career (that thing with the ump in San Diego was pretty weird). Oh well, if the teams with money had any sense they would never lose. The Yanks have dropped over a billion dollars this decade in payroll with nothing to show for it.
The Cubs still have a potent lineup and a pretty decent bench, but I think their pitching is going to come back from last year’s peak and is not as deep. Everything clicked last year and I don’t see it happening as easy this year.
The NL Central looks like it is going to be pretty competitive top to bottom. I’m curious to see how long the Pirates hang around.
It’s assuredly not too early to “fret” over the offense.
As for the pythag stuff, yeah, it’s too early for that to be reliable. But that’s not the point I was making. The point is that many of us are worried about the offense, and the Reds not being able to outscore the opposition on a regular basis. And that’s something we’ve been concerned about since before spring training. Nothing I’ve seen has convinced me that the Reds have a chance to be anything but a bottom-10 offense in MLB.
I’m enjoying the winning more than anyone. I would give almost anything for the Reds to keep winning. But if the offense continues to suck, it’s not going to last. That’s just a simple fact.
Bradley couldn’t have happened to a nicer team.
And please don’t tell me about Dunns fielding percentage, he caught the balls that were hit at him yes, but the guy had NO RANGE.
Chris Dickerson can’t catch the balls that are hit at him.
Dickerson will be better over the long haul, but to say he’s been better in the first nine games than Dunn was is ludicrous. He’s been awful, and he’s cost us at least one game.
Well said Chad. It’s not the current pythag…it’s the expectation that they’ll continue to get outscored. If they continue to get outscored, odds are they’ll have a losing record.
Good call, Chad. Exactly right, unfortunately. But the winning sure is fun!
And Greg, I agree about Bradley, too. Stupid Cubs.
LOL, Matt WI. Milton Bradley could use some of those Phil Jackson zen tips too.
Heck maybe EE and Brandon Phillips coudl use them too.
The winning is definitely fun. I’ve had a blast following this team over the last couple of weeks. Even when they’re playing ugly, they’re fighting.
I enjoyed this road trip. I’d love to see a West Coast road trip go like this one did.
Can you imagine, Greg? I think I’d have a heart attack, after all the awful West Coast trips we’ve endured over our lifetimes.
It’d be awesome.
I’m slightly worried about the run differential but I don’t think our offense is going to be this bad all year. Bruce and Phillips are definitely not performing at their normal levels yet and I think we’ll see improvement from Hernandez, Gonzalez and EE as well. Still, I’m not quite sure if we’ll score enough runs to seriously contend this year. The problem with comparing us to the 1960 Pirates vs Yanks World Series is that that was only a 7 game series. It’s much less likely to be successful while getting outscored over the course of a year.
That said, while it is early, I’m thinking about eating my hat on Willy Taveras, he isn’t the best leadoff hitter and he still has many flaws, but he’s exceeding my expectations at the moment. If he can keep his OBP above .350 then he’s going to score a lot of runs this year.
“I bet he has a great OPS.”
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You are a lucky man, sir.
You have no idea.
Didn’t the Diamondbacks make the playoffs a few years back while being outscored over the course of a year. While I appreciate the lopsided victories, like Karl Rove says, you just have to win by 1.
The Dbacks made the playoffs while being outscored a couple years ago, and the SF Giants did it at least once in their good stretch early in this decade.
The pythag formula gives a better projection on average than the current record. “Better” doesn’t mean you can predict the future with it and “on average” speaks for itself. Teams with good bullpens win most of their close games and overachieve wrt pythag.
The big question about the close ones is: How well will this bullpen hold up ?
This game was a great game all around outside of the errors. It sure is fun when they are winning. I think the offense is bad, but there is no way it will continue to be that bad. And as noted above, other than a couple of meltdowns by the bullpen and the errors that caused Owings 3 extra unearned runs…the difference would not be as bad as it appears.
By the way Joey Votto is a stud and the stupid cubs suck. Nothing is better than beating the crap out of the cubs.
I didn’t quite get why the Cubs dropped the cash for Bradley when they could have gotten Dunn as a left handled bat
Maybe they tried…. maybe Dunn didn’t want to play for the sucky Cubs
“The big question about the close ones is: How well will this bullpen hold up ?”
I think the question could be applied to the pitching as a whole. How consistent will the starters be?
While the pythag works “on average” the team hasn’t had an “average” pitching performance yet. They’ve allowed an average of 4.3 runs per game, but they either allow very little runs (2 or fewer runs 7 times) or a lot of runs (6 or more runs 7 times.)
They’ve been more consistent offensively, scoring 2-4 runs 8 times.
Of course these are all small samples, but…
after the Reds started the season 1-3, they’ve gone 8-3 their last 11 games. They’ve outscored their opponents during this stretch 40-37.
They’ve also won 4 of their last 5, outscoring the opponent 20-13.
I think that this offense could be a middling offense after all is said and done. I know that is outside the comfort zone for Reds fans, who love the mashing.
The beating up on Dickerson’s D is certainly unfair. He had a bad couple of days in a notoriously tough LF with cold and the wind blowing in for the entire series. Maybe he should start doing Soriono’s bunny hop. Counting the number of errors thus far and comparing to Dunn is just silly.
Quick responses:
* A couple teams in history made the playoffs with a negative run differential. “A couple.” And both in horrible divisions.
* Yes, BP and EE are likely to improve, but Votto isn’t going to hit like Lou Gehrig all year. And who knows about Willy.
* We assume that Gonzalez and Hernandez can’t hit this bad all season – or that they’d lose their job. But then: Corey Patterson.
* I swear I read somewhere reputable yesterday that the Reds are only 7/18 in Steals. B-R says 8/10. I think the writer used the Reds’ ranks in each category (7th and 11th), rather than their numbers. I still thought they’d be running more, though.
Just remember how many lazy fly balls landed in shallow left or in the gap when Dunn played out there. And please don’t tell me about Dunns fielding percentage, he caught the balls that were hit at him yes, but the guy had NO RANGE.
I don’t remember a disproportionate number of “lazy fly balls” falling in front, or beside Adam Dunn. Which is why we can’t rely on what we observe, alone. (I also suspect that the inclusion of “lazy” into the description says more about your view of Dunn than it does the fly balls.)
But let’s look at the actual numbers:
First, his fielding pct is actually where some of his problems lied: .969 career, vs. .981 for average LFs.
Range factor/9: Dunn 1.97 vs. 1.93 for average LFs.
Zone Rating I can’t get good numbers for right now. Same with +/-. That stuff may give us more depth, but based on the two most readily-available numbers, I’d say that Dunn got to plenty of balls . . . then screwed up once he was there.
FanGraphs’ numbers show much bigger problems with Range.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF#fielding
“I enjoyed this road trip. I’d love to see a West Coast road trip go like this one did.”
Me too, I live in Orange County and always go to a few Reds/Dodgers games. It’s been awhile since I’ve seen the Reds win live and in person.
“The point is that many of us are worried about the offense, and the Reds not being able to outscore the opposition on a regular basis. And that’s something we’ve been concerned about since before spring training. Nothing I’ve seen has convinced me that the Reds have a chance to be anything but a bottom-10 offense in MLB.”
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Some people see a 7-3 road trip and say “Yay!”
Others see a 7-3 road trip and say “But they aren’t winning BY ENOUGH!”
Come on, just enjoy the wins already!
Maybe you should try reading what Chad has written before saying something dumb. We’re ALL enjoying the wins.
Doesn’t mean we can’t hope for the Reds to play better, does it? And if we can’t analyze this team and what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong, then what’s the point?
Or maybe we should all just say YAY and ignore anything about the team that isn’t peaches and cream! Personally, I prefer discussing the team in all its aspects, warts and all. Feel free to ignore that stuff if you want, but don’t come here and criticizing people for not putting their heads in the sand like you.
Sorry. Just sick of people criticizing others for discussing the team in anything less than glowing terms.
Thanks for the defense, JJ, but it’s not necessary. I’ve come to terms with the fact that some people want you to praise the Reds about the good stuff and shut up about anything even mildly critical, rather than trying to make counter-arguments (and those counter-arguments are the fun part of this blog). I usually try to ignore it after 4+ years here.
No fewer than four times in this thread alone, I alluded to how much fun it has been to follow this team lately and how much I’m enjoying the wins. Of course, Dallas conveniently ignored that.
Sometimes I wonder why I’ve wasted so much money on this site over the years.