Joe Posnanski has a great take on those dumb comments about on-base percentage that Brandon Phillips made a couple of months ago. Who’dathunk BP would be walking and not hitting early in this season?
Great google mapping. This was the best:
“But it very clearly makes him less valuable than he could be with, say, 20 more walks instead of outs per year. Phillips hit a ludicrous .182 on 3-1 counts last year. That’s almost impossible for a good player to do … That could be in part because he’s so eager to get on base the manly way.”
Couple of points: So far this year BP’s O-Swing%, Z-Swing% and Swing% are all down. His P/PA is up. His SO% is down. His BB% is WAY up. His BABIP (.142) is unsustainably low (trending to unlucky). Finally, his line drive percentage is down and his fly ball percentage is up significantly. Put it all together and you get a guy who is reading pitches well, but swinging for the fence because he is batting fourth. That’s on Dusty and Jocketty.
I’d like to see the lineup tweaked something like this:
Taveras (.396 OBP)
Dickerson (.371 OBP)
EdE (.365 OBP)
Votto (.411 OBP)
Phillips
Bruce
Hernandez
Pitcher
Janish (.455 OBP)
Phillips is one of the worst Reds 2B in history at getting on base
gee, I wonder why he doesn’t like walking
OBA OBA
1 Joe Morgan .415
2 Johnny Temple .371
3 Miller Huggins .362
4 Lonny Frey .358
5 Bid McPhee .355
6 Pete Rose .348
7 Bobby Adams .337
8 Sammy Bohne .328
9 Ron Oester .323
10 Dick Egan .322
11 Brandon Phillips .322
12 Hughie Critz .320
13 Bret Boone .316
14 Alex Kampouris .310
15 Tommy Helms .290
Travis Snyder is hitting 9th in Toronto’s lineup and he is every bit as good as Bruce. Until he hits consistently, then I would say drop him in the order.
I saw something with Phillips in last night’s game that gives me some hope. He tried to hit the ball up the middle a couple of at bats. He’s been trying to pull everything lately.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
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If there is a better sports writer out there right now than Joe Posnanski, I want someone to tell me who it is.
Great google mapping. This was the best:
“But it very clearly makes him less valuable than he could be with, say, 20 more walks instead of outs per year. Phillips hit a ludicrous .182 on 3-1 counts last year. That’s almost impossible for a good player to do … That could be in part because he’s so eager to get on base the manly way.”
I love Joe Posnanski and I can’t wait for his new book to come out. This is typical Poz and great stuff.
Couple of points: So far this year BP’s O-Swing%, Z-Swing% and Swing% are all down. His P/PA is up. His SO% is down. His BB% is WAY up. His BABIP (.142) is unsustainably low (trending to unlucky). Finally, his line drive percentage is down and his fly ball percentage is up significantly. Put it all together and you get a guy who is reading pitches well, but swinging for the fence because he is batting fourth. That’s on Dusty and Jocketty.
I’d like to see the lineup tweaked something like this:
Taveras (.396 OBP)
Dickerson (.371 OBP)
EdE (.365 OBP)
Votto (.411 OBP)
Phillips
Bruce
Hernandez
Pitcher
Janish (.455 OBP)
Then Bruce would absolutely get a pitch to hit
oops… meant:
Then Bruce would absolutely never get a pitch to hit
Phillips is one of the worst Reds 2B in history at getting on base
gee, I wonder why he doesn’t like walking
OBA OBA
1 Joe Morgan .415
2 Johnny Temple .371
3 Miller Huggins .362
4 Lonny Frey .358
5 Bid McPhee .355
6 Pete Rose .348
7 Bobby Adams .337
8 Sammy Bohne .328
9 Ron Oester .323
10 Dick Egan .322
11 Brandon Phillips .322
12 Hughie Critz .320
13 Bret Boone .316
14 Alex Kampouris .310
15 Tommy Helms .290
Shane,
Travis Snyder is hitting 9th in Toronto’s lineup and he is every bit as good as Bruce. Until he hits consistently, then I would say drop him in the order.
Hmm…I normally would say moving Bruce in the lineup might not be a bad idea
But do you really think he should bat behind Gonzo and Hernandez?
I think something that could help the lineup a bit more would be to swap EE and Phillips in the order
oh and Bruce is one of the top prospects in all of baseball does Snyder really have the same ceiling?
I saw something with Phillips in last night’s game that gives me some hope. He tried to hit the ball up the middle a couple of at bats. He’s been trying to pull everything lately.
brandon and ee swapping places in batting order tonight.
Phillips’ take on his performance so far:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090421&content_id=4362168&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin&partnerId=rss_cin
Snyder and Bruce will be neck and neck over the course of their careers barring injury, etc.
and Toronto’s lineup is full of .250+ hitters, which is not great but can the Reds say that?