Loading ...From USA Today:
If there was an overwhelming negative from the inaugural tournament in 2006, it was the effect it had on pitchers in the regular season. The anecdotal evidence and high-profile individual cases were well-chronicled in the summer of ‘06, but the full toll hasn’t been as apparent.
To gauge it, USA TODAY analyzed regular-season statistics of every major league pitcher who participated in the spring tournament.
The results show nearly four out of every five pitchers recorded a higher ERA in 2006 than in the previous year (among the 59 who pitched at least 20 innings each year). And more than one in three spent time on the disabled list in ‘06.
ERAs went up 5.6% throughout MLB in 2006, but the increase was significantly higher among WBC pitchers: 18.4%. And while every trip to the disabled list obviously wasn’t related to the tournament, 14 WBC pitchers landed on the DL with arm or muscle injuries in April and May.
Of the 59 who pitched 20 or more innings in the majors in 2005 and ‘06:
•78% posted a higher ERA in 2006;
•42% registered an ERA that increased by one run or more.
•The average ERA of the WBC group jumped from 3.69 in ‘05 to 4.37 the following season, while the ERA throughout all of the majors increased less than a quarter of a run (4.28 to 4.52).
Injuries also were a factor. Among the 77 pitchers who appeared in the majors in ‘05 and played in the WBC, 36% were placed on the disabled list by at some point during the ‘06 major league season.
Some believe the answer won’t be known until there are more results, but with the Reds two young guns throwing in the WBC, it’s another reason that I hate this thing.
Hopefully Mario Soto will use his position as the DR pitching coach to protect these guys and make them do their proper workouts:
http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2009/02/24/ddn022409redsnotesweb.html
If it helps ease your mind at all, there is no mention of several factors that are also in play: age, pitcher quality prior to 2005, league changes, normal pitcher injury rates, normal regression, etc.
Probably the biggest factor not looked at is that ERA is a very erratic stat from year to year. I wouldn’t be surprised if you could pick any random 59 pitchers meeting their qualifications over any two consecutive years and get similar results, especially when the overall league ERA jumps a quarter of a run like it did that year.
The injuries are a concern, but again, what’s the normal injury rate for pitchers. It’s probably not 36%, but that doesn’t mean that we couldn’t pick a random 59 pitchers every year and get similar results.
I guess what I’m saying is that 59 pitchers is nowhere near enough data to draw any conclusions from.
Sample size is definitely too small to draw any grand conclusions…but I still don’t like Reds pitchers going and pitching elsewhere when they are supposed to be preparing for the season.
Reminds me of two years ago when Arroyo went to Japan(after throwing 240 IP) and then proceeded to suck for the first half. Although Arroyo has never been a good first half guy for whatever reason.
I’m curious though, what is the difference if a player gets hurt with their national team as opposed to with their club? Unless it’s caused by another player(like a broken finger after getting hit or stepped on) it would be a freak accident and unavoidable.
Keep in mind that you get invited to a WBC roster by having a good ERA in ‘05, and you’re more likely to have a good ERA if you had a lucky year. So it should be expected that these guys would regress a bit more than your average pitcher in ‘06.
Exactly, Phil. From a Reds business standpoint, it sucks.
To kind of get there with what Slyde said…. I have Volquez having a better ERA in 2009 than in 2008 at about 1% and it has nothing to do with the WBC.
One thing that will be available this year that wasn’t in the past, is the Pitch FX system. We will have a better idea if guys are throwing lesser in April than they were last season.
So Slyde and others are suggesting this was potentially just a random coincidence?
Pitchers are throwing more innings in “more meaningful” games earlier than a normal spring. I’d expect that WBC cohort to have more side effects (worse regular season performance, more injuries) than non-WBC pitchers.
I’m not a fan of the Reds participation in the WBC. It takes away from the concentrated effort of spring training and I think will result in lesser results in the regular season.
GregD, my point was that their study didn’t really show anything. It’s possible that the WBC is bad for pitchers, but nothing about that story makes me believe it to necessarily be true.
As for your point, of course WBC pitchers are a higher theoretical risk just by the simple fact that they will tend to use a higher effort for more games than their counterparts. But I wouldn’t say the injury risk is any higher than a pitcher pitching in the playoffs. The only difference is that playoffs are more worth it to the typical fan.
Hopefully, due to Volquez and Cueto’s young ages, they won’t be as affected.
My question is how many more innings are these guys in the WBC pitching vs how much they would in Spring Training? How many more pitches are being thrown?
Sure they might be throwing harder because they want to win or something, but until there’s much more evidence showing that this is a bad idea, I have no problems with this.
I expect Volquez’s era to rise anyway. I hope Cueto’s era goes down but it wouldn’t surprise me if it didn’t. I’m just hoping he continues to improve. ERA is not the best judge of how well someone is pitching.
By the way, anyone else see that Team Canada is starting Votto in LF? Just sayin….
Scary using the two best arms the team has for this meaningless tournament. GREAT news on Votto starting in LF!
…of course when Team Canada also has Justin Moreaunu, pardon my spelling, I guess you need to play someplace else.
Cueto and Volquez being younger is more detrimental than an older pitcher.
some studies are now saying arms don’t mature until the mid-20’s….so, they’re more likely to be damaged due to over use, or more intense usage
Volquez is 25 and turns 26 in July and Cueto is 23, so he might not be “mid 20’s” yet but I’d say Volquez is
To play devil’s advocate….I’d also submit that Volquez and Cueto substantially tired as the season wore on…Cueto was more or less shut down due to his arm, and apparently Volquez’s legs severely weakened as the season concluded.
Frankly….I’m surprised MLB let’s them play….I would add clauses to their contracts that to void them if injured during this time since they are using their work “assets” for somebody else on company time.
In my opinion, the WBC is just like a glorified Spring Training. I’m not sure that there are too many players out there who are going to jeopardize their season and let down their team just to play and win the WBC.
I see no problems with this. I highly doubt that the MLB or the MLBPA would approve of anything that allows a team to void a contract, esp involving the WBC.
This is MLB’s little baby and they’re going to fight for it for awhile.
Forgive me for being dense, Preach, but are you implying that Justin is a Moron?
This increase in ERA OBVIOUSLY regression to the mean; it’s not random coincidence at all: it’s a well-known statistical phenomenon. Any selection for participation in the WBC is going to be heavily based on the most recent year’s MLB performance; moreover, selection for the WBC will be of the most exceptional performers. Statistically, we know that if you sample any group that performed exceptionally well in the last trial, that group will perform more like average in the next trial unless the correlation between past and future performance is perfect, which in MLB it never is.
Now, there may be some effect that is not regression to the mean, but you can be absolutely certain the USA Today writers aren’t even allowed to print the word “regression” much less test it. And once regression is accounted for, you can be certain that the effect is much smaller.